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901-766-4575

Ashley Lowe, associate person at Nesvick Trading Group and cattle market expert, joins the Ag Bull podcast to discuss the unprecedented bull market in cattle. From its origins at pandemic lows to current record highs, Ashley breaks down the complex factors sustaining cattle prices while other commodity markets struggle.

• Ashley is hosting a cattle market meeting in Dodge City, Kansas on August 22nd at the Boot Hill Museum
• The current cattle bull market began with pandemic-related liquidation around 68 cents/pound
• Drought conditions in western Kansas and other regions further reduced the cattle herd
• Unlike typical fund participation that pressures prices lower, funds are helping sustain this rally
• The market consistently finds buyers on breaks, showing remarkable resilience
• Cattle production cycles span multiple years from conception to consumption
• Evidence of heifer retention signals rebuilding has begun but won't impact production until 2027
• Potential market threats include screwworm detected just 270 miles from the US border
• Proposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian beef would further support domestic cattle prices
• Cattle prices historically "take the stairs up and the elevator down" with quick corrections

To attend the August 22nd meeting in Dodge City, contact Ashley at [email protected] or call 901-766-4575.

There is a risk of loss in trading futures and options, and it is not suitable for all investors. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RETURNS. Nesvick Trading Group LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties or any trading decision taken by persons not intended to view this material

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Market volatility dominates ag news with extreme movements in cattle prices and continued downward pressure on grain markets. North Dakota and Midwest crops look beautiful despite some standing water, presenting both opportunity and storage challenges for the coming harvest.

• USDA report released today matched trade expectations, creating minimal market reaction
• Beautiful crop conditions observed across North Dakota and the Midwest, with some standing water concerns
• Cattle border with Mexico reopened briefly before closing again due to screwworm cases 300 miles south of border
• Potential 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports affecting cattle markets, potentially impacting imported beef cuts
• Tariff situations affecting multiple countries including India, South Korea, and Taiwan with August 1 implementation deadline
• "Big Beautiful Bill" includes tax benefits and farm program provisions normally found in Farm Bill
• A "skinny farm bill" may address remaining agricultural policy issues by September
• North Dakota facing grain storage challenges with state incentives and private companies working on solutions
• Despite farmers' reluctance, many will likely need to sell grain below cost of production

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We examine the devastating aftermath of North Dakota's recent derecho that destroyed grain bins and elevators, creating severe storage challenges for the approaching harvest season. The weather disaster compounds existing market volatility as traders react to headlines without examining deeper implications.

• Multiple tornadoes caused fatalities and extensive agricultural damage across North Dakota
• Destruction of grain storage facilities presents the biggest long-term challenge for farmers
• Markets continue to respond dramatically to headlines, often without substantive connections to agriculture
• June 30th USDA Acreage Report expected to create significant market volatility before the holiday
• Strong agricultural industry support for the Farm Bill currently moving through Washington
• Red River Farm Network's Randy Cohn retiring after decades of agricultural broadcasting

Call the fuel guy – crude oil prices have come down, so now might be a good time to secure your fuel needs while the market appears stable.

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Geopolitical tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran create market turbulence while devastating storms in North Dakota destroy up to 100 million bushels of grain storage capacity. 

• Crude oil prices crash from near $80 to $65 following Trump's social media posts about Middle East agreements
• North Dakota hit by derecho with hurricane-force winds exceeding 100 mph
• Storm damage includes 50-100 million bushels of grain storage capacity destroyed
• Farm fields filled with debris requiring cleanup before harvest equipment can enter
• Senate working on budget reconciliation bill with agricultural provisions
• Federal Reserve communications hint at potential interest rate changes
• Upcoming USDA acreage report expected to move markets

We'll be back with our official Week in Review episode after this wild week concludes.

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Tyler Stockton, procurement manager at Northdale Oil, shares his expertise on navigating volatile energy markets and how global events impact fuel prices for agricultural operations. With seven years in the energy industry, Tyler offers valuable insights into hedging strategies, supply chain dynamics, and current market conditions affecting farmers' bottom lines.

• Northdale Oil has grown from one truck and station in 1992 to over 30 gas stations and a fleet of delivery vehicles today
• During COVID, crude oil traded at negative prices, allowing Northdale to lock in multi-year fuel contracts for farmers at extremely low rates
• Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent prices soaring to $130 per barrel, creating wild market swings
• Hedging strategies help farmers establish predictable fuel budgets regardless of market volatility
• Most fuel in the region comes from Canadian crude refined in Mandan, ND or Minneapolis before distribution through pipeline networks
• Recent Middle East tensions between Iran and Israel are creating new price instability in energy markets
• Terminal "basis" pricing significantly impacts final fuel costs - currently showing unusual patterns with negative basis in some markets

Contact Tyler at 701-757-0668 (office) or 701-520-9056 (cell) for fuel pricing and supply questions.

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Tommy Grisafi & Luke Lloyd of Lloyd Financial Group. 

 We examine the impact of skyrocketing oil prices and their potential effect on inflation, while exploring how AI's deflationary pressure could reshape markets and monetary policy. Financial advisor Luke Lloyd shares insights on navigating today's complex economic landscape, from gold's record highs to Bitcoin's long-term potential.

• Oil prices surged 9% overnight due to Middle East tensions, creating inflationary concerns
• Economic data showing consumer weakness may offset supply constraints, keeping the Fed on track for rate cuts
• AI technology adds significant productivity while potentially creating deflationary pressure through workforce changes
• Current market represents a necessary reset after years of artificially low interest rates
• Gold reaching all-time highs serves as a hedge against currency and system risk
• Bitcoin could eventually reach $1 million per coin as acceptance grows and supply remains finite
• Market outlook remains mixed with job market concerns balanced against potential productivity gains from AI

If you're interested in working with Lloyd Financial Group, visit lloydfg.com or email Luke at [email protected] to book a meeting directly.

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Markets experienced dramatic overnight shifts as Middle East conflict sent crude oil soaring 13% while the EPA announced record biofuel mandates, creating a perfect storm of volatility.

• Crude oil surged 13% overnight - equivalent to a $1.40-$1.50 move in soybeans
• EPA announced highest-ever renewable fuel obligations through 2027
• Soybean oil closed limit up (300 ticks) in response to favorable biofuel mandates
• Iran-Israel conflict raises concerns about the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of daily global oil flows
• Grain markets closed on their highs despite favorable weather forecasts
• Cattle markets sold off sharply, closing on their lows
• US-China trade negotiations showing positive progress following recent talks
• Northern Plains experiencing cool conditions with heavy rainfall in parts of South Dakota
• Markets face significant weekend risk with ongoing geopolitical tensions

Sign up for the Red River Farm Network's e-newsletter "Farm Net News" at rrfn.com for ongoing agricultural news and market insights.

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Jim, the Land Talker, joins us to discuss the current state of Iowa's farmland market and share insights from his May newsletter. Despite low inventory due to planting season, land prices remain remarkably stable with optimistic buyers still active in the market.

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Tommy Grisafi of Nesvick Trading Group & Don Wick from RRFN talk politics and markets. 

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Tommy Grisafi & Don Wick talk Markets & Politics!

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