Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌾 Ukraine grain exports could plunge as Russian attacks on Odesa disrupt Black Sea shipments, with the ag ministry slashing its export estimate 54% to 29.6mmt. 📦 Storage bins could be full by November, leaving an 11mmt shortfall as alternative routes through Romania can't fully replace Odesa's capacity.

📈 Wheat futures bounced back Friday, with Chicago Sep26 up nearly 9 cents to $6.40/bu and KC Sep26 up 14 cents to $7.14/bu on a weaker dollar and Black Sea worries. 🌽 Corn held mostly steady while soybeans slipped despite China ramping up US purchases, with traders positioning ahead of Wednesday's USDA report.

🌧️ This week's forecast looks favorable for the Corn Belt, with rain chances across the central and eastern regions offering relief from recent heat. The hot, dry western Corn Belt should trend cooler and wetter by week's end, though rainfall may stay uneven in spots.

💰 CFTC data shows managed money added 18k corn contracts for the week ending August 4, pushing the net long to 145k contracts, the biggest since late May. 📉 Funds were net sellers of 28k soybean contracts and 17k SRW wheat contracts on the week.

🛳️ USDA flash sales Friday: 238,000mt (9mil bu) of soybeans sold to China for 2026/2027 delivery. 🇲🇽 Corn sales to Mexico totaled 286,097mt (11mil bu), split between the 2026/2027 and 2027/2028 marketing years.

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🌽🔥 North Dakota Drought & Crops — North Dakota is baking through a hot, dry July with record triple-digit heat and worsening drought, and it's hitting crops hard: corn dropped to 50% good-to-excellent (from 61%) and soybeans fell to 46% (from 52%). Relief may be on the way, with better rain chances and more seasonal temps expected in August. 🌾

🗺️ US Drought Monitor Update — Heavy rain eased drought across parts of the Corn Belt (central/NW Indiana, SE Kentucky, N Illinois, NW Minnesota, SE Wisconsin), but dry pockets in Michigan, Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois saw conditions worsen. The Plains stayed hot, with drought deepening in North Dakota, western Nebraska, central Kansas, and eastern Oklahoma despite some relief in the Dakotas/Nebraska. 🌵

📈 Grain Futures Recap — Corn (Dec26) ticked up 2¢ to $4.62/bu on short covering, though Corn Belt rain forecasts kept a lid on gains. Soybeans (Nov26) climbed 3¢ to $11.78/bu on fresh Chinese demand, while wheat slipped despite Black Sea shipping uncertainty. 💹

🇨🇳🫘 China Soybean Buying Spree — China snapped up another 122,000mt of US soybeans for 2026/27 delivery, bringing its flash-sale total to ~2.5mmt over the past month. Buying is ramping up ahead of Xi Jinping's expected US visit, with chatter that sorghum and barley purchases could be next. 🤝

📦 US Export Sales — Corn sales tumbled to a marketing-year low of 116,700mt, down 68% week-over-week, with South Korea leading purchases. Soybean sales also hit a marketing-year low at just 32,200mt (Indonesia the top buyer), while wheat held steadier at 296,400mt led by the Philippines. 🚢

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🌍 Global Food Prices Set to Climb 📈 The UN warns food prices could start rising by year-end and accelerate into 2027, driven by conflicts in Iran/Ukraine pushing up oil, diesel, gas, and fertilizer costs. 🌦️ El Niño threatens crop yields in key growing regions, and while consumers haven't felt it yet, higher commodity costs typically take 3-6 months to hit grocery shelves.

🌽 Corn & Soybeans Slide Again 📉 Dec26 corn dropped ~6 cents to $4.60/bu and Nov26 soybeans fell 3 cents to ~$11.75/bu as favorable rain forecasts across the Corn Belt pressured prices, with StoneX projecting a yield above USDA's estimate. 🌾 Wheat bucked the trend and closed higher on renewed Black Sea shipping concerns tied to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

🏛️ Farm Bureau Pushes for Senate Aid Approval 💰 AFBF President Zippy Duvall is urging the Senate to pass the House's budget resolution, which includes $12 billion in economic aid for farmers and ranchers. 🚜 The relief won't fully cover recent losses, but comes as producers battle rising costs, inflation, and weak commodity prices — on top of an estimated $44.3 billion in government payments already expected this year.

🚢 Flash Sale Alert: Corn Export Sold 🌽 USDA reported 120,000mt (5 million bushels) of corn sold to exporters on Wednesday. 📦 30,000mt ships in the 2026/27 marketing year, with the remaining 90,000mt slated for 2027/28 delivery.

⛽ Ethanol Production Dips, Margins Hold Strong 📊 Weekly ethanol output fell 2.3% week-over-week to 1.11 million barrels/day, though it's up 1% year-over-year, while stocks slipped to 24.52 million barrels. 💪 Despite the dip, Corn Belt ethanol margins remain healthy, running 10-40 cents positive per Reuters data.

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🌽 StoneX Crop Estimates — StoneX pegged the national corn yield at 184.8bpa (16.16bil bu), above USDA's 183.0bpa, while soybeans came in at 53.0bpa (4.47bil bu), just above USDA's last call. 📊 USDA updates its own numbers on August 12, so all eyes are on that report next.

📉 Grain Markets Slide — Corn (Dec26) and soybeans (Nov26) both closed lower Tuesday, pressured by falling crude oil on Iran diplomacy hopes and better August rain chances across the Corn Belt. 🌦️ Wheat also slipped despite ongoing Black Sea shipping chaos.

🇨🇳 Another China Soybean Flash Sale — USDA confirmed a fresh 132,000mt soybean sale to China for the 2026/2027 marketing year. 🔥 That's the third flash sale to China in just the past week.

⚓ Black Sea Export Crisis — Russian strikes near Odesa have shipowners suspending calls, choking off Ukraine's grain export routes and crushing local prices by ~30%. 🚂 Rail/road/river alternatives won't hit meaningful capacity until late August, and even then only handle about half the usual volume — risking 30mmt+ in lost exports.

📈 Farmer Sentiment Rebounds — Purdue/CME's Ag Economy Barometer jumped to 126 in July from 113 in June, though still below last year's 135. 💰 High input costs remain the top worry, but optimism about future export markets persists.

🏭 ADM Raises Guidance — ADM hiked its profit outlook again after a strong Q2, powered by biofuels policy tailwinds and a 129% surge in Ag Services & Oilseeds profit. 🚀 Shares rose 2%+ on the day and are up 38% YTD, while the S&P 500 also closed at a fresh record high.

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🌽 Corn conditions slipped for a third straight week to 61% good-to-excellent, falling below the five-year average as hot, dry weather raised yield concerns. 📉 Dec26 futures rallied Monday, gaining ~9 cents to close near $4.73/bu on crop stress and a strong wheat rally.

🌱 Soybean ratings held steady at 63% good-to-excellent, just above the five-year average, while futures pushed higher on crop concerns and fresh export demand. 🇨🇳 USDA confirmed flash sales of 488,000mt to China and 136,150mt to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery, following reports of 14-16 cargoes purchased by Chinese buyers last week.

🌾 Spring wheat conditions improved to 55% good-to-excellent, topping the five-year average, and winter wheat harvest reached 86% complete, right in line with normal pace. ⚔️ Wheat futures surged on continued Black Sea attacks and news that US-Iran peace talks were called off.

🏡 US farmland values kept climbing in 2026, with average farm real estate up 3.4% to $4,500/acre and cropland hitting a record $6,020/acre. 📊 Growth has cooled from last year's pace, but Corn Belt land remains the priciest in the country at $8,590/acre on average.

🚜 CNH expects the farm machinery market to rebound in 2027 as aging equipment from the profitable 2022-2023 years drives replacement demand. 📈 Shares jumped Monday after the company raised its full-year outlook on better-than-expected Q2 earnings.

🚢 Corn export inspections hit an eight-week high at 1.9mmt, up 23% week-over-week and 45% year-over-year. 📦 Soybean and wheat inspections lagged behind last year's pace, with China absent from the week's soybean loadings.

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🌾 Grain Markets 

Wheat futures fell sharply Friday as traders took profits after Thursday's Black Sea-driven rally. Corn and soybeans also finished lower, pressured by improving weather forecasts calling for widespread Corn Belt rainfall and cooler temperatures. 🌧️ 

🇨🇳 China Ramps Up Soybean Buying 

China purchased at least 14 cargoes of US soybeans on Friday, marking its largest single-day buying spree of July. Traders expect more purchases ahead of trade talks later this fall, with China's new-crop commitments now nearing 3.9 million metric tons. 🚢🌱 

📦 USDA Flash Sale 

USDA also reported a flash sale of 252,000 metric tons (9 million bushels) of soybeans to an unknown destination for the 2026/27 marketing year. 📈 

💰 Funds Turn More Bullish 

Managed money funds were net buyers of 70,000 corn, 30,000 soybean, and 10,000 SRW wheat contracts last week. Net long positions in both corn and soybeans climbed to their highest levels since late May. 📊 

🌱 Corteva Raises Outlook 

Corteva raised its full-year profit forecast, citing strong demand across key crop markets. The company said increased soybean acreage should support seed sales, though fewer corn acres and higher input costs could weigh on crop protection demand later this year. 🌽➡️🫛 

🛢️ Iran Talks Resume 

US-Iran peace talks are set to resume today after President Trump called off a planned military strike in favor of diplomacy. Hopes for a deal, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sent WTI crude oil below $79 per barrel in early Monday trading. 🤝📉

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🌵 USDA's weekly Drought Monitor shows the worst conditions holding in Nebraska, South Dakota, Colorado, Oklahoma, and areas further west, with pockets also showing up in western Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. 29% of US corn areas and 26% of soybean areas are now in drought, though overnight rain hit South Dakota/Nebraska and radar is active this morning over MN, IA, MO, and eastern KS. Maps below 👇

🌾 Grains were mixed Thursday as traders eye a wetter, cooler Corn Belt forecast for early August. Nov26 soybeans slid 4 cents to ~$11.89/bu, Dec26 corn dropped 3.25 cents to ~$4.69/bu, and wheat closed higher but gave back early gains tied to Black Sea military escalation. Charts below 📊

🇨🇳 China bought more US soybeans! USDA confirmed a flash sale of 132,000mt for the 26/27 marketing year, pushing China's new-crop purchases to 3.045mmt total against the White House's 25mmt/year target. Tracker below 📈

🏭 ADM is expanding its North American soy crush capacity at plants in Frankfort, IN, Deerfield, MO, Lincoln, NE, and Spiritwood, ND, mostly wrapping up by late 2028/early 2029. The upgrades add ~700,000 metric tons of annual crush capacity, translating to demand for well over 25 million bushels of US crops. 🌱

⛽ Senate Republicans are set to add permanent year-round E15 sales to the farm bill, with Ag Chair John Boozman scheduling markup for Aug. 6. It's a scaled-down version of the House's May bill built on a Fischer-Capito framework, but the overall farm bill still needs 60 votes with Democrats pushing back on SNAP cost-sharing changes. 🚜

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🌱 Soybean futures tumbled Wednesday as improving weather forecasts weighed on the market, with the Nov26 contract falling roughly 27 cents to settle near $11.93/bushel. Widespread rain is expected across much of the Corn Belt later this week, and corn followed soybeans lower with Dec26 down about 9 cents to $4.72/bushel.

🌾 Wheat futures are trading higher this morning amid escalating Black Sea tensions, after Reuters reported Ukrainian drones struck a grain export terminal at Russia's Taman port, causing significant damage. Ukraine also hit four Russian tankers in the Black Sea and Azov Sea, a notable development given Russia and Ukraine together account for nearly 30% of global wheat exports.

🚜 Safety nets are helping prevent another 1980s-style farm crisis, even as corn and soybean farmers face negative margins for a second straight year with 2026 costs pushed higher by the US-Iran war. Economists say crop insurance, federal programs, and lower debt levels are cushioning the blow, though relief will likely require higher commodity prices or lower input costs.

📈 Bunge raised its earnings outlook after a strong quarter fueled by its soybean business, with Q2 revenue surging 88% year-over-year to $24 billion. CEO Greg Heckman also flagged risk ahead, warning that fertilizer supply disruptions could hit Brazil's second corn crop and push some Argentine farmers to cut back on phosphate applications.

💧 Fertilizer prices kept sliding for a seventh straight week in late July, led by a 14% drop in UAN32 and an 11% decline in anhydrous, which fell below $1,000/ton for the first time since March. Most fertilizers remain pricier than a year ago, but two new plants under construction in Mexico could boost Latin American supply.

⛽ US ethanol production hit a 28-week high last week, climbing to 1.13 million barrels per day, up 3.6% week-over-week and 5.1% year-over-year. Stocks rose to 24.73 million barrels as margins stayed strong across the Corn Belt, ranging 10–35 cents positive per Reuters data.

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🌽 US corn is pollinating under intense heat and drought, with the western Corn Belt hit hardest and some yield damage likely irreversible even if weather improves. 🌙 Warm overnight temps in July and August could further chip away at yield potential.

📈 Corn and soybean futures rallied Tuesday after Monday's USDA crop progress report showed sharper-than-expected declines in crop conditions. 🌦️ The market brushed off cooler, wetter forecasts and softer crude oil prices to keep the rally going.

💵 USDA says farmers need another round of financial aid, pointing to the $12 billion proposed in the House budget resolution. ⛽ Officials also highlighted new biofuel mandates as a boost to ethanol/biodiesel demand and crop prices.

🔥 Western Europe is bracing for its fourth heat wave of the summer, with temps up to 108°F and over 1 million acres already burned. 🐄 The heat and fires are hammering crop yields, water supplies, and the livestock sector alike.

🚢 Black Sea shipping risks are escalating, with Russia weighing machine guns, anti-drone defenses, and armed escorts for grain vessels. 🌾 Major export terminals are restricting truck deliveries, pushing Sovecon to cut its Russian wheat export forecast by ~4%.

🇺🇳 USDA confirmed another flash sale, with 197,272mt of corn sold to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery. 📊 The sale adds to recent momentum in export demand for the upcoming marketing year.

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🌽 Crop Conditions Slide as Corn Belt Bakes – US corn ratings fell to 63% good-to-excellent (down from 67%) and soybeans dropped to 63% (from 66%) as hot, dry weather hit the Corn Belt hard. 🌵 North and South Dakota are the biggest trouble spots, with corn there rated just 50% good-excellent across nearly 11% of US planted acres.

☀️ Driest July in Over a Decade—Corn country saw just 3.42" of rain in July, the lowest since 2014, paired with above-normal heat. 📉 Analysts warn trend yield is at risk unless August delivers timely rain and cooler temps.

🌾 European Wheat Pulls Back – Prices eased Monday as traders found Russia-Ukraine strikes hadn't seriously damaged key export terminals, while good harvest weather in Europe added pressure. ⚠️ Still, Ukraine pushed the UN Security Council for global action to protect Black Sea shipping routes.

📉 Corn & Soybeans Tumble Monday – Dec26 corn fell 14¢ to $4.74/bu and Nov26 soybeans dropped nearly 40¢ to $12.14/bu on easing oil prices and better weather outlooks. 🌾 Wheat also slipped, with Sep26 Chicago down 18¢ to $6.60 and Sep26 KC off 16¢ to $7.29.

🇨🇳 Fresh Soybean Sales to China—The USDA flashed a 132,000mt soybean sale to China plus another 126,000mt to unknown destinations, both for 2026/2027 delivery. 📊 Check out the China Soybean Purchase Tracker for the full picture.

🚢 Export Inspections Mixed – Corn shipments dipped 7.7% week-over-week to 1.5mmt, while soybeans rose 9.3% to 348,850mt (though still down 18% YoY). 🌾 Wheat stood out with a 72% weekly jump to 394,785mt, up 36% from last year.

🐄 Mexico Border Reopening Boosts Meatpackers—JBS and Tyson shares surged (+10% and +5.7%) after USDA announced a phased reopening of Mexican feeder cattle imports starting late August. 📉 Cattle futures tumbled in response, with many feeder contracts hitting daily limit-down.