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0:00 NCGA Asks for Help
3:45 Soybean Rally
5:44 Green Plains and Blackrock
8:41 Ethanol Production
9:48 US Beef Prices

🌽 Corn Growers Plead for Action — But Are They Asking for the Wrong Thing? 🚜

The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) is urging lawmakers to boost corn demand through market-based solutions. Their push comes as farmers face rock-bottom prices and a USDA forecast for a record-smashing crop — 16.74 billion bushels, 9% above the 2023 record. NCGA wants Congress to approve year-round E15 sales (potentially adding 457M bushels of demand) and for the Trump administration to fast-track trade deals. But here’s my take — E15 probably won’t move the demand needle much. What we really need? A solid biofuel policy for sustainable aviation fuel — something missing from NCGA’s plan.

🌱 Soybeans on a Tear
Soybean futures rallied for the third day in a row, hitting the highest price since early July. USDA projects soybean acreage down 7% year-over-year, pushing 2025/26 ending stocks to a three-year low.

🏭 Green Plains in Deep Debt
Green Plains has pledged nine of its ten ethanol plants to BlackRock for a debt extension. The company faces oversupply issues, weaker demand, and failed diversification. Their new hope? Carbon capture + updated 45Z tax credits.

⛽ Ethanol Production Rising
Output hit 1.09M barrels/day last week, while stocks fell to the lowest point this year. Efficiency is improving — more than 3 gallons of ethanol per bushel of corn today compared to 2.8 in 2015.

🥩 Beef Prices to Climb in 2026
USDA sees beef supplies dropping to the lowest since 2019, with herd rebuilding and tariffs on Brazil tightening supplies further.

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0:00 Mammoth Corn Crop
5:07 BIG Acreage Changes
7:13 Soybean Rally
10:46 Cargill Revenue Down
12:47 Stock Market Rally
14:38 Corn Flash

🌽 Record Corn Crop Sends Prices Tumbling 📉

The USDA dropped a bombshell Tuesday, projecting a record-shattering US corn crop 🌽💥. National yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa, smashing all trade estimates and July’s forecast. Production came in at a jaw-dropping 16.74 billion bushels — that’s 1.4B bushels (9%) more than the previous record in 2023. Corn acreage was also bumped up to 97.3 million, fueled by favorable weather across much of the Corn Belt. After the news, Dec25 corn slid about 13¢ to close near $3.95/bu. 📉

🌱 Prevent Plant & Acreage Update
New FSA data shows 1.8M prevented plant acres of corn (down 32% YoY), 1.2M acres for soybeans (up 55%), and 0.3M acres for wheat (down 29%). Actual plantings came in at 96.5M corn, 79.8M soybeans, and 48.7M wheat — hinting corn acreage may be revised even higher later.

🫘 Soybean Surprise
Soybean acres were cut to 80.9M — the biggest YoY drop in modern history 📉. Production is now seen at 4.29B bu, but with a record 53.6 bpa yield. Nov25 soybeans rallied nearly 6¢, settling near $10.33/bu. 📈

🏭 Cargill Hit by Weak Grain Markets
Cargill’s revenue slid to $154B — its lowest since 2021 — amid slumping crop prices and tight beef margins. The company has cut ~8,000 jobs and restructured from five to three business units.

📊 Stock Market Pops on CPI Data
July CPI met expectations — +0.2% MoM, +2.7% YoY — sending the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs 🚀. Odds of a September Fed rate cut are now near 90%.

🚢 Corn Flash Sale to Mexico
US exporters sold 315,488 mt of corn to Mexico — most for the 2025/26 marketing year. 🇲🇽

👍 Like, comment, and subscribe for the latest in grain markets, ag policy, and market-moving data! 🌾📈

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0:00 US/China/Soybeans
2:33 USDA Preview
4:56 Brazil Corn Update
8:34 Crop Progress / Conditions
11:36 Strong Corn Shipments Again

🌎 Tariff Truce Extended & Soybean Rally! 🌱📈

On Monday, President Trump extended the tariff truce with China for another 90 days — just hours before massive tariffs were set to return. Without the deal, Chinese imports to the US would’ve faced a 145% tariff, and China would’ve slapped a 125% tariff on US goods 🚢💥.

📣 In a Sunday night Truth Social post, Trump urged China to quadruple its US soybean purchases. While no fresh buying has been confirmed, soybean futures rallied nearly 24¢ Monday, with the Nov25 contract settling near $10.11/bu. However, prices are trading softer early this morning.

📊 USDA Report Day 🌽🌾
The Crop Production & WASDE report drops at 11am CST!
Corn yield & production → traders expect a big jump amid stellar crop ratings.
Soybeans → yield seen ticking higher.
Wheat → US carryout likely lower, but world numbers mostly steady.

🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Harvest Update 🌽

88% of Brazil’s second-crop corn harvested (behind last year’s pace).
AgRural pegs total corn crop at 136.3mmt (record!).
Farmer selling slow ➡️ prices high ➡️ US staying competitive.

🌱 Crop Conditions
Corn: 72% G/E (2nd-best in 10 years for this week) 👍
Soybeans: 68% G/E, still above 5-year avg 📈
Spring Wheat: 49% G/E (up 1% from last week)
Winter Wheat: 90% harvested ✅

🚢 Export Shipments
Corn: 1.5mmt (↑16% vs. last week, ↑51% YoY)
Soybeans: 519k mt (↓18% WoW, ↑48% YoY)
Wheat: 365k mt (near low end of expectations)

📺 Stay Tuned!
✅ Subscribe for real-time USDA breakdowns, grain market updates, and trade news.
💬 Drop your thoughts below—will China actually buy the beans?

#Soybeans #Corn #Wheat #USDA #Trump #Tariffs #GrainMarkets #BrazilCorn #FarmNews #AgUpdates

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0:00 Trump Comments, Soybeans Surge
2:40 Trump and Farm Economy
7:47 StoneX Yield Conspiracy
10:11 The Funds and Corn
12:12 USDA Preview
14:24 Food Prices Rise

🌱 Soybeans Surge After Trump Comments 🇺🇸📈

Soybean futures are 🔥 this morning after President Donald Trump took to Truth Social Sunday night, saying he hopes China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders and is worried about a shortage. 📲 Traders are reading this as a possible hint that soybean purchases could be part of a new trade deal. The Nov25 contract spiked 📈 27¢ overnight!

📰 Trump & the Farm Economy
A recent Bloomberg piece looked at Trump's role in the farm economy. Since his first tariffs earlier this year, some farm input costs have climbed. Tariffs now average 15.2%—the highest since WWII 🇺🇸—but inflation, COVID money creation, direct farm payments 💵, and the Black Sea war ⚔️ have also fueled higher costs.
📉 New crop US soybean sales are the lowest in nearly 20 years—China hasn’t bought any yet. Meanwhile, US corn export sales are record high 🌽💪.

📊 Fund Tracker
Funds cut their net short in corn last week (👀 +15k contracts)
Net sellers of soybeans (-29k), pushing net shorts to the biggest since Dec 2024
Net sellers of SRW wheat (-16k)

📅 USDA Report Tomorrow – Big Changes Expected
Traders expect higher corn 🌽 and soybean 🌱 yield estimates, bigger US carryouts, and rising global stocks—except for wheat, which may tighten.

🌍 Global Food Prices Climb
The FAO Food Price Index hit 130.1 in July—the highest in 2+ years—driven by record-high meat prices 🥩 and surging vegetable oils 🌻🥥. Grain prices remain low despite high grocery costs.

🚨 Flash Corn Sale
US exporters sold 125,000mt (5mil bu) of corn to “unknown” buyers for 25/26. Next year’s sales are already up 102% vs last year.

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0:00 Brian's Charts
3:15 Big Corn Sales
7:50 US Ag Trade Deficit
9:42 Drought Monitor / Weather / Crop
13:49 China Pig Plan
15:57 Nutrien
18:22 BOE Rate Cut, US Next

🎯 Big Corn Sales, Global Trade Shifts & Drought Watch! 🌽📉🌍

🔥 MASSIVE Corn Sales!
US new crop corn export sales came in at 3.163 MMT (125 mil bu) — the 3rd best weekly number ever and the best without China in the mix!
👉 Soybean sales (old + new crop) both beat expectations
👉 Wheat sales strong too — up 25% from last week

🚨 Record Ag Trade Deficit
For the first 6 months of 2025, the US posted a $28.6B ag trade deficit, the worst on record... June alone: $4.1B shortfall
📌 Long-running surpluses have turned into consistent deficits since 2019
📌 Brazil & Argentina crops still undercutting US grain globally

Drought Monitor Update
USDA's weekly drought map is out:

Spotty rains helped parts of IN & the High Plains
New drought popped up in MO, IA, WI, and KY
📉 Current drought by crop:
Corn: 3%
Soybeans: 3%
Winter Wheat: 30%
Spring Wheat: 35%
Cattle: 13%

🇨🇳 China to Cut Hog Herd
China plans to reduce its sow herd by 1 million head
Cash hog prices are down 30% YoY
📦 This could mean lower soymeal demand moving forward — big implications for soybean exporters
🧠 Trade tensions also play a role here

🌱 Fertilizer Demand Still Strong
Nutrien says fall demand is booming, even with grain prices under pressure
🌽 Higher US corn acres = more potash demand
📈 Nutrien raised its 2025 potash forecast after record H1 sales
📊 Expect a busy fall fertilizer season

🇬🇧 Bank of England Cuts Rates
The BOE cut interest rates to 4.00%, lowest in over 2 years
📉 Down from 5.25% in 2024
⚖️ Vote was close: 5-4 split
📈 Inflation still high (4%)
📉 Labor market softening
🧭 Forward guidance? Cautious & slow

Drop your thoughts in the comments! Are US ag exports turning a corner… or just getting squeezed out globally?
👇 Don't forget to like, subscribe, and hit that bell 🔔 for weekly market insights that cut through the noise.

#GrainMarkets #CornExports #USDA #DroughtMonitor #TradeDeficit #Soybeans #Fertilizer #BOE #China #AgNews #FarmEcono

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0:00 Hammer Time (Corn Pattern)
3:15 Wheat Update
5:03 Soybean Update
7:08 New COVID Strain
8:57 Mosaic and Fertilizer
11:02 Ethanol Production

🌽 Corn Cracks $4! Rain, Record Yields & Farmer Selling 🌧️📉
Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff — this week’s update is packed with price moves, trade chatter, and market-moving headlines! Let’s dig in👇

🌦️ 🌽 Corn Futures Dip Below $4!
The Dec '25 corn contract dipped under $4 for the first time 😬
➡️ Rains across the Corn Belt 🌧️
➡️ Lofty private yield estimates 📈
➡️ Weak Sep/Dec spread 😵‍💫 (farmer "puke" anyone?)
➡️ Record Brazil crop weighs on global values 🇧🇷
⚠️ USDA report on deck Tuesday — average guess is 184.2bpa vs 181

🌾 Wheat & Soybeans Stay Weak
🟤 Sep ’25 SRW wheat hit $5.04, lowest since May
🟡 Nov ’25 soybeans near $9.85 after meal-led selloff
🌎 Big global supplies + soft demand = headwinds 🚫

🦠 New COVID Variant… Again?
A new strain (XFG) is spreading.
➡️ Third most common in the US
➡️ No big red flags 🚫
💭 Worth watching… remember 2020?

🧪 Fertilizer Falters: Mosaic Slides 13%
Mosaic missed earnings and shares tanked 💥
🇺🇸 Tariffs + delayed maintenance + lower crop prices = 💸
📉 US phosphate/potash imports down 20% YTD

🍺 Ethanol Update: More Efficient Than Ever
🛢️ Weekly output: 1.08mil bpd
📉 Stocks fell to 23.76mil barrels
💰 Margins improved
🌽 One bushel = 3+ gallons of ethanol today vs. 2.8 in 2015!

📊 🖼️ See all the charts below:
• Monthly SRW Wheat 📉
• Stocks/Use Ratios
• Ethanol Efficiency Gains

👍 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your take in the comments!
📬 Stay tuned—Tuesday’s USDA report could move markets in a big way!

#corn #soybeans #wheat #ethanol #fertilizer #covid #usda #grainmarkets #trading #farming #agriculture #commodities #mosaic #StoneX #JoshLinville

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0:00 Joe's Resting B Face
1:30 Corn Belt Heat Wave
3:28 Argy Meal to China
5:08 ADM Stock Rises
7:47 Farmer Sentiment
9:20 Big Ukraine Crops
10:39 Corn Flash

🌽🔥 Heat, Trade, and Biofuels – Big Moves in Ag This Week! 🌎💥

Hey farmers, traders, and ag market watchers! 👨‍🌾📈 This week’s update is packed with key developments you won’t want to miss! Let’s break it down ⬇️

🌡️ ☀️ Heat Wave Hits the Corn Belt!
A two-week scorcher is headed for the Corn Belt! CropProphet forecasts temps 3–4°F above normal, with near-normal rain at first, then slightly drier. Some say warm weather during grain fill can help corn and soybean yields—if moisture holds up. What do you think? 🤔

🇨🇳🌱 China Buys Big from Argentina
China’s diversifying! They've now bought 3 cargos of 🇦🇷 soybean meal (via Bunge), plus approved the first-ever Argentine corn shipment! 📦 And with a $900M letter of intent signed for soy, corn, and oil... trade ties are heating up like the weather! 🔥

🛢️ ADM Sees Biofuel Boom Ahead 🚜
Despite earlier scandals, ADM is riding high 📈—shares up 15% YTD. They expect higher biofuel mandates to fuel future profits, especially in Q4. Clarity in policy = bullish long term? 

📉 Farmer Sentiment Slips 😕
The Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer fell to 135 in July, with both present and future outlooks lower. But there's a silver lining: 🌐 optimism about trade is up, and most believe the US is heading in the right direction. 

🌾 Ukraine Crop Outlook Improves 🌍
Ukrainian wheat and corn production could exceed forecasts if weather holds. With grain production near 56mmt and exports projected to hit 40mmt, winter wheat acres are set to rise 🚜. 

🚨 USDA Flash Sale (Kind of…)
USDA reported a flash soybean sale—but wait! Correction: it was actually corn! 😅 This is the second correction in two weeks. Sale totals 5 mil bushels to unknown buyers for 2025/26. 

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0:00 Subscribe to the Channel!
1:01 StoneX Estimates
5:22 Corn Selloff
7:05 Crop Conditions
11:37 Brazil Harvest
12:56 Strong Shipments

🌽📊 StoneX Sees RECORD Corn Yield! Soybeans Also Strong 💪

👀 A well-followed private group, StoneX, just dropped massive US crop estimates based on their customer survey… and the numbers are way above USDA’s latest!

🌽 Corn Yield:
🔹 188.1 bpa vs. USDA’s 181.0
🔹 16.32B bushels vs. USDA’s 15.71B

🌱 Soybean Yield:
🔹 53.6 bpa vs. USDA’s 52.5
🔹 4.43B bushels vs. USDA’s 4.34B

These estimates are based on input from StoneX’s grain-buying customers & agronomists 🧑‍🌾📋 

📉 Market Reaction:
Corn futures sank again on Monday, with the Dec25 contract hitting a new life-of-contract low at $4.07/bu. Favorable US weather 🌤️ and a record Brazilian crop 🌎🌽 are dragging prices down.

🌾 Crop Conditions:
✅ US Corn: 73% G/E – 2nd best in a decade!
✅ US Soybeans: 69% G/E – Highest since 2020
📉 US Spring Wheat: 48% G/E – down for a 3rd straight week
🚜 Winter Wheat: 86% harvested and nearly wrapped up

🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Harvest:
⏳ Behind last year’s pace, but picking up fast!
📦 Total corn crop pegged at a record 136.3mmt

🚢 Export Inspections:
🔸 Corn: 1.2mmt (📉 21% WoW)
🔸 Soybeans: 612k mt (📈 130% YoY)
🔸 Wheat: 599k mt (📈 107% WoW)

👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to like 👍, subscribe 🔔, and share if this info helps you stay ahead of the market!

#Corn #Soybeans #GrainMarkets #CropUpdate #StoneX #Futures #USDA #Wheat #AgNews #FarmEconomics 🌾🌽📈

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0:00 Depressing News
0:40 The Funds are Short
2:52 Heat Wave
4:15 US/China Update
5:56 Meal Update
7:41 Wheat
8:42 Flash Sales

🔥 FUND MOVES, HEAT WAVES & TRADE TALK! 🌽🌡️📉

Here's what you need to know this week in grains, weather, and global trade! 👇

📊 🧠 Fund Flows:
“The Funds” slightly reduced their net short position in the corn market last week. CFTC data showed:
Net sellers of just 181 corn contracts 📉
Heavy net sellers of 34,000 soybean contracts 😬
Largest soybean short since April 🫘
Sold 13,000 SRW wheat contracts 🌾

🌞 🔥 Heat Building in the Corn Belt:
Our friends at CropProphet see above-normal temps on the way:
📅 7-day: +2°F above normal
📅 8–14 day: +3.8°F above normal
🌧️ Slightly below-normal rainfall

🤝 US-China Trade Talks Back On?
Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent says he’s “optimistic” about a deal ✍️
🇺🇸🇨🇳 Officials met in Stockholm last week
🗓️ Deadline: August 12
👉 But so far, new crop US soybean sales are the worst since 2005... zero Chinese purchases 😳

🌎 China Buys Argentine Meal Again
China booked another 30,000mt of Argentine soybean meal 🇦🇷
That’s the 3rd deal since June after years of no activity
💰 Why? Cheaper prices thanks to lower Argentine export taxes (from 31% → 24.5%)

🚢 Wheat Export Slowdown
Russia, Ukraine, and the EU — who make up nearly 50% of global wheat exports — are off to a slow start:
Russian exports down 30% YoY 📉
Ukraine shipping just 1/3 of last year’s volume
Spot prices at Black Sea ports +8% in July
📉 All 3 US wheat futures contracts just hit life-of-contract lows

🌽 Flash Sales!
USDA reported two corn flash sales Friday:
352,160mt (14 million bushels) to unknown destinations for 25/26

📉 Stock Market Slump
Markets tumbled Friday after weak job data:
Dow -1.2%
S&P -1.6%
Nasdaq -2.2%
👎 Only 73,000 jobs added vs. 100k expected
👀 Fed rate cut odds for September just went up
🧨 Trump tariffs also added pressure

👍 Like, 💬 comment, and 🔔 subscribe for more market updates every week!

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0:00 Corn Yield Bet
3:31 Export Sales
10:41 Flash Sales
11:50 Wet July
15:26 Cattle Selloff
20:11 US Dollar Rally

🎯 US Export Sales Slide While New Crop Corn Surges 🚀 | Drought Relief & Cattle Market Shakeup 🌽💥

📉 Grains in Motion!
US corn export sales dropped 47% from last week, landing at just 340,900mt (13 mil bushels). But don’t panic—new crop corn crushed expectations with 1.9mmt (74 mil bushels) in sales! 🙌
🌱 Soybean bulls got a boost too! Net sales hit 349,200mt, exceeding estimates and climbing from last week. New crop beans came in strong at 429,500mt (16 mil bushels).
🌾 Wheat took a step back—592,100mt in sales, down 17%, but still matching the 4-week average.

🚨 Flash Sales Frenzy!
The USDA reported a wave of flash sales Thursday:
🇨🇴 100k mt corn to Colombia
🇰🇷 140k mt corn to South Korea
❓ 136k mt corn to unknown destinations
🇳🇬 100k mt of hard red winter wheat to Nigeria
📦 All for 2025/26 delivery!

🌧️ Corn Belt Drought Fades
The latest USDA Drought Monitor brought good news:
✅ Conditions improved in MN, IA, IL & IN
📉 Drought in the Corn Belt is now at just 2.4%—down from 32% earlier this year!
📌 National Drought Stats:
• Corn: 7% 🌽
• Soybeans: 5% 🌱
• Winter Wheat: 30% ❄️
• Spring Wheat: 38% 🌾
• Cattle: 14% 🐄

📉 Cattle Collapse or Just a Blip?
🐂 After new all-time highs, cattle futures got clobbered Thursday—feeder contracts hit limit down 📉
Some fear the top is in, but remember: this market has bounced back before. With tight supplies & strong beef demand, fundamentals still look solid 💪

💵 Dollar Roars in July
The US Dollar Index posted a 5% gain in July—its best month since Dec 2024! 💹
✅ Resilient economy
✅ Hawkish Fed
✅ Easing trade tensions
But beware: tariffs & political pressure could shake things up soon...

👍 Like, subscribe & comment your take on export trends, cattle futures, or the dollar’s next move!

#Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #Cattle #USDollar #DroughtUpdate #USDA #AgMarkets #GrainMarketing #FarmNews 🌽📉📈