Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌽 Grain Markets Surge Overnight 🌾 Corn, soybean, and wheat futures opened sharply higher Sunday night on a combustible mix of weather worries and geopolitical shocks. ☀️ The US Corn Belt faces a dry, hot week ahead, adding fuel to the rally even as some early selling emerged this morning.

⚔️ Black Sea Conflict Escalates 🚢 Ukraine and Russia traded attacks on key grain export regions, disrupting shipping through the Sea of Azov and prompting closures of the Don-Azov Channel and Kerch Strait. 🌾 Russia also struck Ukraine's major export ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Izmail, stoking fears over Black Sea grain flow.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Middle East Tensions Boil Over 🛢️ The US launched a third round of strikes on Iran over the weekend, triggering Iranian missile and drone retaliation against American allies. 🚫 Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, and shipping traffic there was nearly nonexistent Sunday despite US claims it remains open.

📊 USDA Report Shakes Up Stocks 📉 Friday's USDA update slashed 2026/27 corn ending stocks estimates well below expectations and projected the smallest US wheat harvest in 56 years. 🌱 Soybean stocks held steady but still missed trade estimates, while soybean production got a bump.

💰 Funds Turn Bullish 📈 The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed large money managers net buying 52k corn, 31k soybean, and 7k SRW wheat contracts last week. 🐂 It's a clear signal that speculative money is leaning bullish across the grain complex.

🇨🇳 China Keeps Buying US Soybeans 🛳️ USDA confirmed another 264,000mt soybean sale to China for 2026/2027 delivery, adding to last week's 736,000mt in flash sales. 🌱 The steady demand is a bright spot for US soybean exports.

🖥️ AI Data Centers vs. Farmland 🚜 The booming AI data center industry is competing with agriculture for land, water, and power, sparking concern among farmers and ranchers. ⚖️ Roughly two dozen states are now weighing legislation to regulate or limit new data center development on farmland.

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🌽 Corn & soybeans dipped Thursday as milder weather and wider Corn Belt rainfall eased crop stress — Dec26 corn closed near $4.52, Nov26 beans near $11.82

🌾 Wheat bucked the trend, climbing on tighter US supply expectations

🌡️ GFS and Euro models both flipped cooler for the 8-14 day outlook, adding to the selling pressure

💧 Drought monitor update: improvement in NW/north-central Iowa, SE Minnesota, and SW Wisconsin; minor expansion in southern Illinois and NW Ohio
🇨🇳 Fresh flash sales — 256,000mt of new crop soybeans sold, including more to China; total confirmed new crop China soybean sales now at 672,000mt (2.7% of the 25mmt target)

📉 Corn export sales came in soft—down 23% week-over-week

🛢️ Record US biofuel mandates are pulling in a wave of European biodiesel imports — first shipments since December 2024—as domestic plants struggle to keep up
No Snapshot video today—July WASDE is typically a quiet one, and I've got some prior commitments. Back to the regular lineup next week.

📊 Charts, drought maps, and the China Soybean Purchase Tracker in the video.

👍 Like, subscribe, and drop your yield/stocks predictions in the comments before the number drops!

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🌽 US farmers face a competitive disadvantage as a new NCGA study shows they pay significantly more than Brazilian farmers for corn and soybean inputs like seed, fungicides, and insecticides. NCGA is now pushing for greater price transparency to help level the playing field.

🌾 Grain futures pulled back Wednesday as easing heat forecasts and profit-taking sent corn, soybeans, and wheat lower. Forecasts still call for warm, dry conditions ahead, but the worst of the heat dome is now expected to shift west.

🇨🇳 China booked its largest US soybean purchase since November, buying 472,000mt for 2025/2026 and 2026/2027 delivery. Despite the renewed buying, US soybeans still face a pricing disadvantage due to China's added tariff and cheaper Brazilian supplies.

💣 The US resumed military strikes on Iran, hitting 90 targets as President Trump warned of more action and a possible port blockade. Iran has vowed retaliation and threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, stoking fears over global oil supply.

⛽ US ethanol production slipped last week to 1.09 million barrels per day, with stocks also declining. Corn Belt ethanol margins eased slightly but remain in positive territory.

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🌽 Corn futures rallied to their highest close since early June as scorching heat threatens the Corn Belt. 📈 Renewed optimism over Chinese soybean demand also lifted beans and wheat higher.

🔥 A brutal heat dome is building across the western US and will spread into the Northern Plains and Corn Belt through next week. 🌡️ Triple-digit temps are expected in the Dakotas, Wyoming, and Montana, with little relief in sight through early August.

🛢️ Oil prices spiked after Iran attacked commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, with WTI jumping over 2.8% before extending gains after hours. ⚠️ Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "over" in fiery comments at the NATO summit in Ankara.

📉 US farmer sentiment fell for a third straight month in June, with Purdue's Ag Economy Barometer dropping to 113. 💸 High input costs remain the top concern as confidence in the next five years continues to slide.

🇨🇴 USDA confirmed a flash sale of 105,000mt of soybean cake and meal to Colombia. 🌱 The sale adds to recent bullish demand signals in the soy complex.

🥩 Cattle groups are pushing the Trump administration to scrap a proposed tariff exemption for Brazilian beef. 🇧🇷 Brazilian beef imports have surged 41% this year, fueling tension over a possible 25% tariff and threats of retaliation.

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🌱 China Returns to US Soybeans: China's COFCO purchased 300,000mt of US soybeans Monday, its largest buy in months, with volume potentially reaching 600,000mt as more deals finalize. 📊 Despite the move, China has only committed to about 2% of the 25mmt annual target agreed to last fall.

🤝 Xi-Trump Meeting on the Horizon: President Trump says Xi Jinping may visit Washington around September 24, coinciding with the UN General Assembly. 🏛️ The visit comes as the two nations navigate a fragile trade truce, with tariffs, Taiwan, and Middle East tensions still simmering in the background.

📈 Grains Rally on Weather & Demand: Corn and soybean futures surged Monday, with Dec26 corn hitting its highest close since early June and Nov26 soybeans reaching their best level since late May. 🌧️🔥 The rally was fueled by scorching Corn Belt heat forecasts plus flooding in Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin, alongside renewed optimism over Chinese demand.

💰 Funds Turn Bullish: The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed money managers net buying corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat for the week ending June 30. 📅 It marked the first time since late April that funds were net buyers of both corn and soybeans simultaneously.

🌽 Crop Conditions Steady: US corn conditions held at 67% good-to-excellent, unchanged week-over-week but still below last year's pace. 

🌾 Soybeans dipped slightly to 64% while winter wheat harvest raced ahead at 59% complete, well above the average pace.

🔥 Record Overnight Heat Alert: CropProphet's data shows the June 29–July 4 stretch brought the warmest overnight temperatures on record for corn-producing regions since 1981. 🌡️ While daytime highs were merely top-4 historically, those scorching nighttime lows are now a key risk factor to watch as the crop develops through July.

🚢 Export Shipments Mixed: Corn export inspections beat expectations at 1.6mmt, up 5% year-over-year, while soybean shipments jumped 32% versus last year with China driving half the volume. 📉 Wheat shipments disappointed, falling 66% week-over-week and 74% below last year's pace.

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🌧️ Heavy rain triggered major flooding across Iowa, with over 15 inches falling in central areas and I-35 shut down near Ames. More storms are on the way this week, though the recent extreme heat is expected to ease as the heat dome shifts west toward the Plains. 🌽

📊 USDA's latest drought monitor showed improvement in the southern Corn Belt thanks to heavy rain, while drier conditions expanded drought in western Iowa and southern Minnesota. High Plains states like South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma also saw drought conditions ease. 🌾

🇺🇸🇨🇳 The US and China have agreed in principle to cut tariffs on agricultural goods, potentially making US soybeans more competitive with Brazil. Traders remain cautious though, waiting for real sales rather than just diplomatic headlines. 🌱

🛢️ OPEC+ is boosting oil production again as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recovers post-ceasefire. WTI crude sits near $68/bbl, down nearly 40% since its April peak amid glut concerns. ⛽

📉 US corn and soybean export sales fell sharply last week, with soybean sales hitting a marketing-year low. Mexico led in corn and wheat purchases, while China topped the soybean buyers list. 🚢

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🌱 USDA Fertilizer Investment – USDA is putting $500 million into expanding US fertilizer production, targeting nitrogen projects in Louisiana and Nebraska to cut import reliance. 💰 Don't expect relief at the farm gate anytime soon though — most projects are years from completion, and experts say it's still far short of what's needed for real self-sufficiency.

🌾 Wheat, Corn & Soybeans Rally – Wheat futures extended gains for a second day after USDA pegged this year's harvested wheat acreage at just 32.1 million acres, the smallest since 1877! 📈 Corn and soybeans rode the bullish wave higher too, both notching back-to-back gains.

🔥 Extreme Heat Hits the Corn Belt – Triple-digit heat indexes are scorching the Corn Belt and Plains, adding stress to corn and soybean crops in the driest spots. ⛈️ Some relief is on the way though, with scattered storms and slightly cooler temps expected next week.

⛽ Ethanol Production Climbs – US ethanol output jumped to an eleven-week high, up 2.5% week-over-week and 3.3% year-over-year. 📊 Stocks rose too, and margins across the Corn Belt remain solidly positive.

🛢️ Strait of Hormuz Oil Flows Rebound – Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are nearing pre-war levels, backed by US military support and alternative export routes. 🕊️ Trump says peace talks with Iran in Qatar are going well, which helped push oil prices lower.

📱 Robinhood Launches 24/7 Futures in Europe – Robinhood is rolling out round-the-clock perpetual futures trading in Europe, covering gold, silver, crude oil, currencies, and ETFs with up to 10x leverage. ⚠️ Ag commodities aren't included yet, but the move fuels concerns that 24/7 trading could eventually reshape the grain markets too.

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🌽 Corn futures rallied Tuesday after USDA pegged June 1 stocks at 5.3 billion bushels, below every trade estimate, while 2026 planted acreage came in at 95.34 million acres. The Dec26 contract gained 6 cents to close at $4.36/bushel, while soybean stocks and acreage came in above expectations and wheat acreage fell well short of forecasts.

🌍 President Trump has temporarily suspended duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizer for up to eight months to ease shortages tied to the US-Iran war. The DOJ continues investigating major fertilizer companies over antitrust concerns, even as the administration works to boost domestic production long-term.

🔥 A brutal heat dome is gripping the Corn Belt and Plains, with heat index values hitting 100–110°F across Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, Illinois, and Kansas. Crop stress is worst in the western Corn Belt and Plains, while livestock producers watch for heat stress in fat cattle.

💵 The Brazilian Real posted its worst month of 2026 in June, falling about 2.7% on a stronger US dollar and rate expectations. Inflation worries, falling oil prices, and election uncertainty added pressure, though some analysts see room for a rebound.

🌾 USDA reported a flash sale of 100,000mt of hard red spring wheat to Nigeria for the 2026/2027 marketing year. Total wheat sales remain down 17% versus last year.

🥩 CME is launching new beef trim futures covering 50% and 90% lean beef trimmings starting July 20, pending approval. The contracts won't change cattle or beef supplies but aim to improve price risk management and transparency across the supply chain.

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🌽 Corn & Soybean Selloff
Corn futures tumbled Monday, with the Dec26 contract falling nearly 12 cents to close at $4.30/bushel as traders positioned ahead of today's USDA report. 📉 Soybeans dropped even harder, with Nov26 losing about 17 cents to settle at $11.39/bushel, while wheat also closed lower.

🌡️ Heat Building Across the Belt
Oppressive heat and humidity will grip the Plains and Corn Belt through the week, pushing heat index values into the triple digits with overnight lows barely dipping below 80. 🔥 Extreme heat warnings are already up across the eastern Plains and Corn Belt, with the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes at greatest risk for record highs.

📊 USDA Report Day
USDA releases its Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks reports this morning, with corn acreage expected to decline from March intentions while soybean acreage rises. 🧾 June 1 corn stocks are forecast up ~16% YoY, soybeans up ~4%, and wheat up 9% — our USDA Snapshot video drops within 15 minutes of the 11am CST release.

🌱 Crop Conditions Update
Corn and soybean conditions slipped slightly last week, with corn at 67% good-to-excellent and soybeans at 65%, both still above their five-year averages. 🌾 Spring wheat improved to 59% G/E, while winter wheat held steady at a weak 26% G/E with harvest now 48% complete.

🚢 Export Inspections
Corn export inspections came in strong at 1.8mmt, up 22% week-over-week and 29% year-over-year. 🌊 Soybean inspections jumped 54% to 419,124mt with China taking 16% of the total, while wheat inspections fell 9.6% to 358,253mt.

💰 Flash Sale Alert
USDA confirmed a flash sale of 136,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery. 🇨🇳 Stay tuned for more updates as the trading week unfolds!

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🌡️ A heat dome is building over the Plains and Corn Belt this week, pushing temps into the 90s and triple digits with heat index values up to 110°F and raising crop stress concerns. Storms along the dome's edge should bring rain to the Dakotas, Minnesota, and parts of Nebraska/Kansas before cooler, wetter conditions return by week's end.

🌱 USDA finalized its Regenerative Feedstock Rule for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, letting farmers using regenerative practices qualify corn and soybeans for lower-carbon biofuel premiums. Farm and biofuel groups praised the move, though farmers will earn premiums through ethanol plants rather than direct government payments.

⚔️ US-Iran tensions flared again after US strikes on Iranian military targets followed Iran's attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, putting peace talks on hold even as US officials say negotiations remain on track. Trump warned of further military action if attacks continue, while WTI crude trades near $70/bbl amid the uncertainty.

📊 Friday's CFTC report showed big money managers growing their corn net short to 75k contracts (largest since early February) and trimming soybean net longs to 37k (smallest since early February). Wheat saw modest selling too, with funds dumping 1k SRW contracts on the week.

🌾 USDA drops its Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks report Tuesday morning, with corn acreage expected down and soybean acreage up versus March intentions. June 1 stocks are seen higher year-over-year across the board—corn +16%, soybeans +4%, and wheat +9%.