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🌱 Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff!
Today’s update dives into a sharp selloff in soybeans, trade developments with China, and a closer look at shifting global dynamics affecting U.S. ag markets.

🌾 Soybean Market Drop
Soybean futures plunged Thursday, with the Jan26 contract down nearly 27¢ to around $11.08/bu. The slide followed China’s limited U.S. soybean purchases, despite last week’s trade truce. China suspended certain retaliatory tariffs but kept a 13% duty on soybeans. Wheat also fell sharply, while corn saw modest losses. 📉

🇨🇳 China Trade Update
COFCO hosted a soybean procurement signing ceremony in Shanghai — but details remain vague. The U.S. claims China agreed to buy 12 MMT by January and 25 MMT annually thereafter, yet China hasn’t confirmed those volumes. Traders are growing skeptical after repeated “confirmations” without firm numbers.

⚖️ SCOTUS & Trump’s Tariffs
The Supreme Court is reviewing whether President Trump’s sweeping tariffs are constitutional. Justices questioned if the IEEPA law gives authority to impose tariffs — it doesn’t mention “tariff” or “duty.” A ruling against Trump could partially invalidate some tariffs, though he may pivot to the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 or the Trade Act of 1974.

🇦🇷 Argentina Crop Progress
Soybean planting in Argentina is off to a strong start 🌦️. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports 4.4% planted (of 43 M acres) and projects a 48.5 MMT crop. Corn planting is 36% complete, with 58 MMT expected. Late frosts caused minor damage in southern areas.

🌧️ US Drought Monitor
Recent rains improved drought in KY, OH, and parts of IL, IN, and MO. Conditions worsened slightly in MN and IA.

Corn: 30%
Soybeans: 32%
Winter Wheat: 38%
Spring Wheat: 17%
Cattle: 26%

💼 Jobs & Markets

Private data showed 153,074 job cuts last month—triple Oct 2024’s figure. Tech and warehousing led the declines. The Nasdaq fell 1.9%, the S&P 500 –1.1%, and the Dow –0.8%. The 10-year yield slipped to 4.09%, and traders now price a greater 60% chance of a December Fed rate cut.
(⚠️ Note: These job numbers are private data; BLS data remains paused amid the government shutdown.)

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Welcome back! Here’s what’s moving the markets this week 👇

🌾 China Steps Back Into U.S. Grain Markets
Reuters reports China purchased two cargoes of U.S. wheat — one soft white and one spring wheat — plus at least one shipment of U.S. sorghum. Futures for SRW and HRW hit fresh 3-month highs on the news.

💼 Tariff Rollbacks from Beijing
China’s Finance Ministry says retaliatory tariffs (up to 15%) on U.S. ag products will be lifted November 10.
That includes corn, wheat, and sorghum, though U.S. soybeans still face a 13% import tax, keeping them pricier than Brazilian supplies. Traders say major Chinese buyers are showing new interest in U.S. wheat.

🌽 Corn Harvest & Yields
Corn yields are mixed across the Corn Belt—strong in Minnesota and South Dakota but lower in Illinois and Iowa.
Wyffels Hybrids averaged 241 bpa across 724 plots (vs. 247 last year).
Many still expect near-record crops, but yield chatter is closer to 178–179 bpa, well below USDA’s 186.7 bpa.

🍶 Ethanol Sets a New Record
U.S. ethanol output hit 1.12 million barrels/day, the highest ever.
Stocks: 22.66 million barrels
Margins: +15 ¢ to +35 ¢ across the Corn Belt (Reuters data)
Strong corn grind and robust demand continue to support prices.

🌱 Brazil’s Fertilizer Gamble
Brazil Potash Corp. is investing $2.5 billion in an Amazon potash mine, aiming for self-sufficiency by 2030.
Currently 90% of fertilizer imports come from Russia — a huge risk.
Chinese investors are reportedly eyeing future supply deals tied to crop exports.

🐄 Cattle Market Meltdown
Cattle futures collapsed to limit-down levels Wednesday.
Despite Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins confirming the U.S.–Mexico border remains closed to feeder imports, her mention that Trump wants to reopen it added to panic.
Even with strong fundamentals — record-low cow herd, solid beef demand — government price-control talk has shattered trader confidence.

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💰 Farm Aid Update
The Trump administration still plans to deliver additional farm aid once the shutdown ends—reportedly up to $12B to offset trade-war impacts. USDA Deputy Secretary Vaden says the final total could shift depending on the China-deal market response, but the aid won’t be replaced by the truce framework.
This program would look a lot like Trump's first-term MFP rollout.
Meanwhile, inflation remains a thorn in the side of producers. And betting markets think the shutdown wraps late next week.

🏭 ADM Outlook Cut
ADM just trimmed its 2025 profit outlook. Weak soybean crush, soft ethanol margins, and China trade uncertainty are dragging earnings.
CEO Juan Luciano says markets need clearer China trade policy + biofuel rules—both delayed by the shutdown.
ADM's Q3 profit fell ~19%.

💵 King Dollar Flexes
Risk-off vibes Tuesday pushed the dollar higher—four-month highs vs. the euro. Markets are suddenly less confident in a December rate cut (65% vs. 94% last week). Stocks slipped, safe havens bid.

🌽🚜 Farmer Sentiment Rebounds
The Purdue/CME Ag Barometer up to 129 in October.
Livestock still outshines crops—cattle profits remain massive.
58% say tariffs will strengthen US ag, while uncertainty lingers for others.
Importantly, this data came before the US-China “trade truce” news.
📊 Barometer graphics below.

🐂 Mexican Cattle Border Still Closed
Sec. Brooke Rollins says not yet on reopening the border to Mexican feeder cattle.
Screwworm containment is improving, but the USDA is still cautious—price pressure in beef is not part of the decision, per Rollins.

📏 S&P Global Crop Estimates
S&P holding steady:
🌽 Corn yield ~185.5 bpa, crop ~16.8B bu
🌱 Soybeans ~53 bpa, crop ~4.26B bu

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🌎 China’s Soybean Shuffle

China booked 20 Brazilian soybean cargoes—half for December, the rest for March–July—as Brazil undercuts US Gulf prices again.
Traders still expect US purchases under the truce, but the market wants official tariff news from Beijing.
US futures rallied anyway—Jan26 +19¢ to $11.34, the highest since July.
The rumor mill says more US deals behind closed doors. 👀

🚢 Export Check: Soybeans Weak, Corn Hot
US soybean inspections: 965K mt—down hard from last week and last year 😬
China is still absent.
Corn? 🔥 Big week—1.7 mmt, up sharply vs. last year.
Wheat is also stronger YoY.

🇨🇳 China Looks at US Wheat Again

China sniffing around SRW/HRW cargoes for Dec–Feb.
Traders call it goodwill buying more than economics.
Wheat futures pop—Dec25 closes near $5.44, the best in 3 months.

🌱 Brazil Planting Lags

Heat + dryness slowing planting: 47% vs 54% last year.
Some replant risk.
StoneX tweaks the outlook:
• Beans slightly higher at 178.9mmt
• Second corn crop cut to 107mmt

🇺🇸 US Harvest Almost Wrapped

Analysts peg harvest at:
• Corn 83% (vs 91% last year)
• Soybeans 91% (vs 94%)
Dry weather helped.
Still no crop progress reports during the shutdown—but WASDE/Prod is still coming Nov 14.

📊 StoneX US Yield Update

• Corn: 186 bpa—slight bump
• Beans: 53.6 bpa—trimmed
US production is essentially steady vs last month.

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🎙️ Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff! 🌾
This week we sit down with USDA Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins for a big-time conversation on the future of American agriculture and global trade. Strap in—this one hits all the hot topics 👇

🇨🇳 US/China “Trade Deal” & Soybean Purchases
What does the new agreement really mean for US farmers?
Will China step up for big-volume soybean buys again — or is the market over-hyping it? 🌱🚢

🌟 “Golden Era of Agriculture”?
President Trump says US agriculture is entering a Golden Era — Brooke breaks down what that means for:
Farm income
Global demand
Export competitiveness
Long-term policy vision
Is it optimism… or reality coming fast? 💪🌽✨

💸 Direct Farm Payments & Input Costs
We talk:
Future support programs
Input inflation pressures (seed, fertilizer, fuel)
Policy responses to farm margins getting squeezed

🇲🇽 Border, Beef & Feeder Cattle
How does the southern border tie into livestock markets? And what’s the real story on:
Mexican border flows
Feeder cattle prices
Beef import potential
U.S. herd rebuilding timeline 🐂📈

🏢 USDA Workforce Cuts
Yep—layoffs. Why the shake-up, and what farmers should expect going forward.

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✅ Welcome back — today we’re breaking down China’s long-term soybean commitment and what it really means for US farmers. 🌱🇺🇸🇨🇳

🌍 Global Market & Trade 🌐

China agreed to resume long-term US soybean buying under the new Trump-Xi trade truce:
12mmt through January
25mmt annually for 3 years
Removal of tariffs on most US ag goods
This is below the 29mmt average over the past 5 years—but far better than the “zero-buy” fear.
Chinese state media confirmed ag buys — but not the exact volumes Bessent mentioned.

ASA reaction:
✅ Positive tone
✅ Relief after stalled demand
✅ Optimism for future growth

Also—both countries will pause vessel fees for 12 months, easing $3.2B in shipping pressure.

Soybeans rallied on the announcement 👇
Jan26: +13¢ to ~$11.08/bu

Corn slipped lower
Dec25: down ~4¢ to ~$4.30
No corn commitments in this agreement + USDA reports paused by shutdown = headwinds

Wheat lower
Dec Chicago: -8¢ near $5.24

📝 Key Takeaway

This deal is not a blockbuster, but it does restore baseline demand and boosts confidence after months of uncertainty.
Markets like it. Farmers like it.
And it beats the alternative. ✔️

🌦️ Weather & Crop Conditions
US drought conditions were mostly steady this week.
Some relief in parts of KY/OH/MI, but dryness worsened in IA & IL.
High Plains remains least impacted; mixed changes in the Dakotas & the Southern Plains.
Corn impacted by drought: 30%
Soybeans: 34%
Winter wheat: 40%
Cattle areas in drought: 26%

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🌦️ Macro & Policy
President Trump says talks with Xi were “12 out of 10” and announced tariff cuts tied to fentanyl cooperation. China says they reached consensus on fentanyl and agricultural trade, but no actual volume numbers yet.
Trump jumped on Truth Social claiming China will buy “massive amounts” of U.S. farm goods — and even told farmers to go buy more land and bigger tractors 🚜😂
Policy headline? ✅
Actual commitments? 🤷‍♂️

🌾 Grains & China Buying
COFCO reportedly bought three cargoes of U.S. soybeans, but markets barely moved. Traders want to see follow-through, not headlines.
Soybean bulls: 🤝 Hope & prayer
Futures: 🥱 Neutral to slightly lower
Until we see more sales, the market remains cautious.

🐄 Cattle & Border News
U.S.–Mexico border stays closed to feeder cattle as officials work to eradicate the screwworm outbreak.
$21M U.S. investment in sterile fly program
No timeline for reopening
Cattle futures liked the news — big rally Wednesday.

⛽ Ethanol Update
Ethanol output dipped slightly on the week but remains strong vs last year, with margins running 10–40¢ positive across the Corn Belt. Stocks rose slightly.
Margins holding firm = supportive for corn demand.

🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Outlook
Rabobank expects a record Brazilian soybean crush and higher acreage, but stable exports.
Corn acreage is up too—but production is seen down ~3.5%.
Brazil keeps expanding. No surprise 😬🌎🌱

💵 Interest Rates & Macro
The Fed cut rates again—the second time this year—taking the benchmark to 3.75%–4%.
Powell pushing back on a “cut every meeting” approach.
Markets now see a 67% chance of another cut in December (down from ~90%).
The government shutdown still limiting data flow—fun times 🙃

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🇨🇳 China Buys U.S. Soybeans for the First Time This Marketing Year

🌦 Market Highlights
China has purchased U.S. soybeans for the first time this marketing year. Reuters reports that state-owned COFCO bought three cargoes (≈180,000 mt / 6.6 mil bu) for Dec–Jan shipment ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting in South Korea. U.S. beans remain about 50¢/bu cheaper than Brazilian beans for November export.

🌾 Futures Action
Soybean futures hit their highest level in over a year Tuesday. The Jan 26 contract reached $11.00 before easing to around $10.95 on profit-taking and increased farmer selling. Corn and wheat also advanced—Dec 25 corn closed near $4.32/bu, its best since early July.

🏛 Washington Watch
The U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee held a hearing on seed and fertilizer market concentration. Four companies now control 80% of corn seed and 75% of soybean seed sales. The American Soybean Association warned that farmers face mounting pressure as production costs surge and prices fall—soybean producers could see net losses of $109/acre this year.

🤝 Global Trade & Policy
The U.S. and Japan signed two agreements Tuesday—one strengthening the alliance, another on rare-earth supply chains. Despite the fanfare, key trade gaps remain. Japan already imports roughly $12 billion in U.S. ag products annually, including corn, beef, pork, and soybeans, suggesting its new $8 billion annual commitment likely reflects normal volumes.

🐄 Livestock Pressure
Feeder cattle futures fell sharply again as President Trump vowed to lower beef prices. Since his Argentine beef import proposal, feeder cattle have dropped nearly $50/cwt amid speculation of resumed Mexican imports and tariff cuts on Brazilian beef.

🌽 Ethanol & Energy
India continues to block U.S. ethanol imports despite U.S. pressure in ongoing trade talks. India blends about 2.6 billion gal/year of ethanol domestically and protects its farmers’ $13 billion in feedstock income—making ethanol policy a major sticking point.

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🌾 Welcome to today’s grain market update!
Soybean futures surged to their highest level since June as optimism grows that China may resume U.S. soybean purchases following President Trump’s comments on a potential trade deal with President Xi.

🌤️ Weather & Harvest Progress
Corn and soybean harvests are nearly wrapped up across the U.S. Analysts estimate the corn harvest at 72% complete and soybeans at 84%, both slightly behind last year’s record pace. Rain slowed progress in parts of the Corn Belt, but steady combining continues elsewhere. With the government still shut down, no official Crop Production or WASDE report is expected on November 10th.

🌎 Global Market Trends
Brazilian planting is racing ahead — 36% of soybeans and 55% of first-crop corn are in the ground, matching last year’s pace. Conab pegs Brazil’s soybean crop at 177.6mmt (+3.6% YoY) and corn output at 138.6mmt (-1.8% YoY). 

🚢 Export & Shipment Data
U.S. soybean inspections were disappointing at 1.1mmt — the weakest seasonal figure since 2011/12. Corn shipments were 1.2mmt, and wheat came in light at just 258kmt. Top soybean destinations included Indonesia, Israel, and Italy.

🐂 Livestock & Policy Watch
Cattle markets were hammered again Monday. Feeder cattle contracts hit expanded limits, and live cattle dropped sharply amid news of expanded Argentine beef imports and possible Mexican feeder cattle inflows. A Trump–Brazil meeting also hinted at renewed Brazilian beef trade.

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🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Trade Talks

US and Chinese leaders made progress on a trade deal during meetings in Malaysia. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Trump’s 100% tariff threat on Chinese goods is now off the table. He also hinted at an agreement that would extend the current tariff truce and defer China’s export controls on rare earth minerals. China is expected to make substantial purchases of US soybeans, though details on volumes and timing are still unclear. The talks set the stage for a meeting later this week between Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea, where a final deal could be announced.

🌾 Ag Markets: Soybeans, Corn & Wheat

Soybean futures gapped higher overnight. The Jan ’26 contract trades at its best level since late August, while the spot Nov ’25 contract is at its highest since July 2024. Corn and wheat futures are also trading higher, supported by optimism over renewed Chinese demand and improved export prospects.

🔍 Phase One Review

The US has launched an investigation into China’s compliance with the 2020 Phase One trade deal. That agreement required China to significantly boost imports of US farm goods, especially soybeans. China committed to an average of $40 billion per year over two years but reached only about 77% of the target. A public hearing is scheduled for December 16, and the probe could lead to new tariffs if violations are found.

🐄 Cattle & Beef Markets

Cattle futures closed sharply lower on Friday, with many contracts hitting their daily limit down. The selloff was triggered by reports that US and Mexican officials will meet to discuss reopening the border to Mexican feeder cattle imports. Traders are also reacting to plans by the Trump administration to lower domestic beef prices by allowing more Argentine beef imports. The uncertainty has caused speculators to unwind large net long positions in the cattle market.

💸 Inflation & Markets

Inflation came in slightly cooler than expected in September. The CPI rose 0.3% for the month and 3.0% from a year ago. Gasoline prices were up 4.1% for the month and accounted for much of the gain. The softer inflation report boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its meeting this week.

📈 Stock Market Rally

Stocks rallied to record highs on Friday. The Dow Jones topped 47,000 for the first time, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both logged strong weekly gains. The market optimism is driven by easing inflation and growing confidence that interest rate cuts are on the way.