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China Retires Meat Export Licenses 🚫🥩
Hundreds of U.S. meat exporters have lost their authorization to send beef, pork, and poultry to China, potentially costing the beef industry $4.1 billion and the pork industry $1.3 billion. This move comes amid trade tensions, with speculations about a shift in China’s trade policies, including increasing inquiries for Australian beef. Despite the challenges, U.S. exporters still have significant unshipped soybean sales to China. 🌏💸

Wheat Futures Soar 🌾📈
Wheat futures are trading sharply higher, especially HRW contracts, following news that Russian wheat export forecasts were trimmed. This has led to increased export demand for U.S. wheat. Weather forecasts show minimal rain for U.S. HRW wheat regions but slightly better rainfall for SRW wheat areas. The strong export sales last week further support the positive market movement. 🌾🌧

Brazil's Soybean Harvest Ahead of Last Year’s Pace 🇧🇷🌱
Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing faster than last year, with 66% of the crop harvested compared to 62% at the same time last year. Despite hot and dry conditions in some southern regions, the national crop is expected to set a record. However, U.S. soybeans are still non-competitive against Brazil's exports, especially with pricing data showing a premium for U.S. soybeans. 🌞📊

Funds Trim Their Corn Positions 📉🌽
The funds significantly reduced their net-long position in the corn market, selling 74,000 contracts. Over the past three weeks, the funds have slashed their positions by 227,000 contracts. They were net buyers of soybeans and SRW wheat, signaling a shift in market focus. 📉💼

Tax Cuts and Budget Balancing Plan 💰📊
President Trump’s administration plans to cut federal income taxes for individuals earning less than $150,000 annually. The strategy to balance the budget includes reallocating $1 trillion from wasteful spending and generating an additional $1 trillion through the sale of a "gold card." While tax cuts may be beneficial, the focus remains on the long-term fiscal health of the country. 💵⚖️

Flash Sales for U.S. Exports 🌾🚢
USDA reported two flash sales on Friday, with U.S. exporters selling 218,604 metric tons of corn and 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year. These sales provide a positive signal for U.S. agricultural exports despite current uncertainties. 📦🚜

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Wheat Export Sales Surge 📈🌾
US wheat export sales soared last week, reaching 783,400 metric tons (29 million bushels), which was 83% higher than the previous four-week average. Panama was the largest buyer. Corn and soybean sales were also strong, with corn sales at 967,300 metric tons and soybean sales surpassing expectations at 751,700 metric tons. Mexico and China were the largest buyers for corn and soybeans, respectively. 🌽🌱

Trump Threatens 200% Tariff on European Wine 🍷💥
In retaliation for the EU's proposed 50% tariff on American whiskey, President Trump threatened a 200% tariff on European wine, champagne, and spirits. This trade spat comes after Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs. The EU has also planned tariffs on various US agricultural goods. Both Canada and the EU are significant buyers of US ethanol, and the situation could have a ripple effect on ethanol exports. 🍇🇪🇺

Brazil’s Soybean Production Forecast Raised 📊🌿
Brazil's soybean production forecast was increased to 167.4 million metric tons, up 1% from February's estimate, despite hot and dry conditions in the south. China's demand for Brazilian exports is expected to rise due to the ongoing US-China trade conflict. Meanwhile, Brazil’s total corn production forecast was slightly raised to 122.8 million metric tons, marking a 6.1% increase from last season. 🇧🇷🌾

Treasury Secretary Stresses Long-Term Economic Focus 📉💼
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized the Trump administration’s focus on long-term growth, stating that short-term market volatility is not a concern. He assured that well-implemented policies would foster economic growth and job creation in the future. This comes amid the stock market's correction due to ongoing trade tensions. 📊📈

Drought Conditions Persist in US Corn Belt 🌾🌧
Scattered rainfall across the Corn Belt led to improvements in drought conditions in some areas, but others, particularly in western Illinois and western Minnesota, saw worsening conditions due to a lack of rain. The High Plains also experienced scattered rainfall, with conditions improving in Nebraska and Kansas. However, southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma are seeing worsening drought conditions. 🌾🌞

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EU Tariffs Could Impact U.S. Agricultural Exports 🌾
President Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum prompted the European Union to announce retaliatory tariffs on up to $28 billion worth of U.S. imports, including agricultural products like corn, soybeans, beef, and poultry. These tariffs could hurt the EU livestock industry, but the EU remains open to negotiations, with feed grains possibly playing a role in easing tensions. 🚜

Canadian Farmers Shifting Crops Due to Tariff Threats 🍁🌾
Canadian farmers are expected to plant more wheat (+2.6%) and less canola (-1.7%) this year. However, the tariff threats from the U.S. and China have led to uncertainty in planting intentions. China announced a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and meal, while Trump’s 25% tariff on Canadian goods will start in April, adding further pressure on the market. 🌱

Hedge Funds Cut Market Exposure Amid Trade and Economic Concerns 📉
Concerns about tariffs and a slowing economy prompted hedge funds to reduce their market exposure. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 9% from its peak, with a significant reduction in positions from industrial stocks. This sharp de-grossing follows fears of lower consumer spending, corporate profit declines, and a potential recession. 📉

U.S. Ethanol Stocks Remain High Amid Steady Production ⛽
U.S. ethanol stocks rose slightly to 27.4 million barrels, remaining at historically high levels. Despite a minor week-over-week drop in production, ethanol output remains above last year's levels. Gasoline demand showed a slight increase, with ethanol stocks still reflective of early COVID-era levels. ⛽📊

US Consumer Prices Rise at Slowest Pace in Four Months 📉💵
Inflation increased by 0.2% in February, slower than January’s 0.5% rise and below expectations. On an annual basis, inflation reached 2.8%, a decrease from January’s 3%. Despite this moderation, there are concerns that tariffs could drive prices higher in the coming months. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates as policymakers monitor inflation. 📊

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USDA Keeps Corn and Soybean Balance Sheets Unchanged 📊🌽
The USDA left its corn and soybean balance sheets unchanged, despite expectations for reductions in corn ending stocks due to strong export demand. Soybean stock estimates were also left the same, though some analysts had hoped for a slight decrease. The USDA refrained from making any changes as they await developments regarding US tariffs and global reactions. The wheat balance sheet saw a minor adjustment, with stock levels rising more than expected. Markets responded negatively, driven by lower-than-expected demand estimates for corn and increased wheat inventories. 🌾

President Trump Softens Tariff Threat Against Canada 🇨🇦📉
After a conversation between Ontario’s Premier and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, President Trump decided to scale back his initial threat of doubling tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum. The pause on Ontario’s 25% electricity tax led to the reversal, with Trump sticking to a 25% tariff on Canadian metals instead. This came alongside Trump’s assertion that the US economy will experience a strong boom rather than a recession, despite ongoing tariff tensions. 💼

Soybean Production in Rio Grande do Sul Drops 📉
The soybean outlook in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil’s key soybean-producing state, has worsened. Local crop agency Emater reported a 30% reduction in the state’s crop estimate due to prolonged hot and dry conditions. However, Brazil’s national crop agency, Conab, still projects a record-high national soybean crop of 166mmt, despite these regional reductions. 🌱

Russian Missile Attack in Odesa Hits Grain Vessel ⚔️🌾
A Russian missile struck the Black Sea port of Odesa, damaging a grain vessel and killing four crew members and a port employee. The attack occurred while the vessel was loading wheat destined for Algeria. Both Russia and Ukraine have intensified their military actions, while the Trump administration continues to push for peace talks. 🚢💥

Stock Market Losses Extend Amid Tariff Uncertainty 📉💰
The stock market saw further losses on Tuesday, primarily due to concerns about President Trump’s tariff threats against Canada. The S&P 500 dropped 0.8%, entering correction territory, while the Dow Jones lost 1.1% and the Nasdaq fell by 0.2%. The volatility was fueled by shifting trade policy decisions and unsettled consumer confidence. Investors are awaiting the February CPI report, with projections indicating a slight decrease in inflation compared to January. 📉📊

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00:00 Export Inspections
3:03 Canola Market
5:20 Brazilian Soybean Harvest
7:19 USDA Report
8:59 Stock Market
10:50 Flash Sales

🌽 Strong US Corn Shipments, Mixed Results for Other Grains
 US corn shipments surged last week, with USDA reporting 1.8 million metric tons (72 million bushels) shipped for the week ending March 6. This exceeded expectations, rising 35% from the prior week and 56% from the same period last year. Soybean shipments also increased, reaching 844,218 metric tons (31 million bushels), up 21% from the previous week and 7.5% year-over-year. Meanwhile, wheat shipments fell short of expectations at 216,173 metric tons (8 million bushels), marking a 45% decline from the prior week and a 55% drop compared to last year. 

🇨🇦 Canola Market Hit by China’s Tariffs
 Canola prices tumbled after China imposed a 100% tariff on canola oil and meal in retaliation for Canada’s tariffs on Chinese EVs. While Canadian farmers faced significant losses on Monday, prices stabilized somewhat today. Notably, canola seed exports remain unaffected for now. With 95% of canola exports heading to the US, Canadian producers are in a tough spot. 

🇧🇷 Brazil’s Soybean Harvest Progressing, Weather Concerns Persist
 Brazil’s soybean harvest is moving faster than last year, with 61% of the crop harvested as of last Thursday, compared to 55% at the same time in 2023. However, concerns remain over soybean yields in Rio Grande do Sul due to hot and dry conditions. Brazil’s second corn crop planting is nearly complete, with 92% finished—just shy of last year’s 93%. 

📊 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Report Due Today
 The USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report at 11 AM CST. While the report is usually uneventful, traders will be watching for any adjustments related to trade policies. No major changes are anticipated for South American crops.

📉 Stock Market Slumps Amid Recession Fears
 The stock market took a hit on Monday due to growing recession concerns. The Dow Jones fell 2.1%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.7%, and the Nasdaq plunged 4%, marking its worst session since September 2022. Tech stocks saw steep losses as investors worried about the economic impact of President Trump’s proposed tariffs, spending cuts, and geopolitical shifts. Adding to concerns, Trump refused to rule out a US recession over the weekend, calling the current economic situation a "transition period." Economic fears also led to a sharp decline in the 10-year Treasury yield, which dropped to 4.2% from its recent 4.8% peak.

🚀 USDA Reports Two Flash Sales

• 126,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn sold to Japan for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
• 195,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of soybeans sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year. 🌎📦

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🇨🇳 China Imposes $2.6 Billion in Tariffs on Canada 

China has placed $2.6 billion in tariffs on Canadian agricultural and food products, starting March 20. This includes a 100% levy on $1 billion worth of canola oil, oil cakes, and pea imports. 🌾🥜 Additionally, a 25% tariff will be applied to $1.6 billion worth of aquatic products and pork. 🐟🐖 The move is in retaliation for Canada's 2023 tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum. Interestingly, canola seeds were excluded, signaling China’s openness to negotiations. Some analysts see this as a warning to Canada, discouraging it from aligning too closely with U.S. trade policies. ⚖️🇨🇦 

🇺🇸 Trump on Possible Recession & Tariffs 

In a Fox News interview on Sunday, Trump declined to rule out a potential recession or higher inflation. 📉💰 He admitted that his tariffs might cause a transition period but emphasized their long-term benefits. Trump particularly highlighted the advantages for U.S. agriculture but provided no specific details. 🌾🇺🇸 He also reinforced his vision of a business-driven economy, rather than one reliant on government intervention. Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick dismissed recession concerns, instead predicting strong U.S. economic growth in the next two years. 📈💼 

🌽 Funds Dump Corn & Soybean Holdings 

"The Funds" cut their net-long positions in the corn market last week, according to CFTC's Commitment of Traders report released Friday. During the week ending March 4, large money managers were net sellers of 127k corn contracts, marking the biggest weekly selloff since February 2023. 📉🌽 Additionally, they sold off 48k soybean contracts and 18k contracts of SRW wheat. 🌾💰 

🥚 DOJ Investigates Surging Egg Prices 

The DOJ has launched an antitrust investigation into soaring egg prices, probing whether major producers colluded to inflate prices or restrict supply for higher profits. 📊⚖️  Egg prices have surged over 50% year-over-year, with consumers paying about $5 per dozen. 🥚💵 The egg industry blames the price hike on the worst bird flu outbreak in U.S. history, which has led to the destruction of 150+ million chickens, turkeys, and egg-laying hens. To address the crisis, the USDA has allocated $1 billion to fight bird flu and stabilize egg prices. 🏛️🐔 

📉 US Job Growth Misses Expectations 

The U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in February, falling short of the 170,000 projection despite being higher than January’s revised 125,000. 👷📊 The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% from 4%, while average hourly wages increased 0.3%, as expected. However, the annual wage growth of 4% was slightly below the expected 4.2%. Meanwhile, the number of part-time workers for economic reasons jumped to 4.9 million, the highest since October 2021. The Department of Government Efficiency also cut 5,000 federal jobs in January—the first decline in federal employment since June 2022. 🏛️📉

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Trade & Market Updates 🌍📉

President Trump has temporarily paused tariffs on Mexican imports under the USMCA agreement, exempting them from his recently imposed 25% tariff until April 2. The decision came after a conversation with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who reported a 41% drop in fentanyl seizures at the border from January to February. Later, Trump extended the same exemption to Canadian imports under the trade deal. His shifting stance on tariffs has created market uncertainty, weakening consumer confidence and causing financial markets to plunge on Thursday—Dow -1%, S&P 500 -1.8%, Nasdaq -2.6%.📉

The U.S. is moving to impose docking fees on Chinese-linked vessels and pressuring allies to follow suit or risk retaliation. This effort aims to strengthen domestic shipbuilding and reduce China’s influence in global shipping. The draft order also includes tariffs on Chinese cargo-handling equipment. Last month, the U.S. Trade Representative's office recommended fees of up to $1.5 million on Chinese-built ships entering U.S. ports following an investigation into China’s dominance in global shipping. 🚢⚖️

Amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, Brazil 🇧🇷 is poised to increase its agricultural exports to China. Earlier this week, Trump raised tariffs on China by 10%, prompting China to retaliate with 15% tariffs on $21 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products, including meat and soybeans. Chinese importers may now favor tariff-free grains & protein from Brazil. A similar shift occurred during Trump's first term, when the U.S.-China trade war led to a major decline in U.S. soybean exports to China, a market share the U.S. never fully recovered. These new tariffs, though lower than before, may accelerate China’s move away from U.S. agricultural supplies. 🌾🇨🇳

U.S. corn exports increased last week, with 909,100 MT (36 million bushels) sold—up 15% from the previous week but down 32% vs. the 4-week average. Japan was the largest buyer. Soybean sales reached 352,900 MT (13 million bushels), down 14% weekly but stable vs. the 4-week average, with China as the top buyer. Wheat sales hit 338,700 MT (12 million bushels), up 26% weekly but down 25% vs. the 4-week average, with Mexico leading purchases. 📊🌽🫘

The USDA's latest drought monitor reveals worsening drought in Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri, with below-average snowfall in Minnesota raising concerns. Currently, 43% of the Corn Belt is experiencing drought, up from 32% in January. The High Plains remained mostly dry, with drought expanding in Kansas & Oklahoma. 🔥🌾

• Drought Impact by Crop:
  • 🌽 Corn: 60%
  • 🫘 Soybeans: 50%
  • 🌾 Winter Wheat: 24% | Spring Wheat: 39%
  • 🐄 Cattle: 38%

The USDA reported a flash sale of 20,000 MT of soybean oil on Thursday for delivery in 2024/2025, mirroring a similar sale on Tuesday. 🚀

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Temporary Tariff Exemption for Canadian and Mexican Auto Imports 🚗📈
On Wednesday, President Trump announced a one-month exemption from the 25% tariffs on automotive imports from Canada and Mexico. The pause, which responds to requests from automakers, has boosted stock markets. The exemption applies to manufacturers under the USMCA trade agreement. Despite this, Trump plans to continue using tariffs as leverage to address fentanyl smuggling concerns. Last year, automotive trade between the US, Canada, and Mexico totaled $345 billion, with a surplus for the US with Canada and a deficit with Mexico. 🇨🇦🇲🇽

Potential Agricultural Product Exemptions from Tariffs 🌾💡
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins hinted at possible relief for agricultural sectors, suggesting that potash and fertilizer could be exempt from the recent tariffs on Canada and Mexico. This comes after Trump’s 25% tariffs on both countries and an additional 10% on China. Retaliatory tariffs have already been implemented by Canada and China, with Mexico expected to follow suit soon. 🌱

Risk of Export Cancellations Due to Tariffs 📉
US farmers are facing the risk of significant export cancellations due to rising tariffs and trade uncertainty. About 12 million tons of US crops, particularly corn and soybeans, could be at risk. Mexico, the largest importer of US corn, still has 7.8 million tons of corn unshipped. Additionally, soybean sales to China may be deferred or canceled, although the impact on soybeans is expected to be smaller. 🌽🌱

President Trump Urges Farmers to Remain Patient Amid Tariff Challenges 💼🌾
In his address to Congress, President Trump urged farmers to stay patient as tariffs take a toll on the agricultural industry. Despite some early gains in corn and soybean markets, retaliatory tariffs have caused significant losses. However, the initial portion of the $30 billion in federal farm aid is set to be distributed soon, offering some relief. 💸

Russia's Wheat Crop in Better Condition than Expected 🌾❄️
Russia's wheat crop is reported to be in better condition than initially expected, following a mild winter with warmer temperatures and reduced snowfall. In December, over 37% of Russia's winter crops were in poor condition, but the crop’s improved status has led to fewer production and export concerns. 🌾

US Dollar Drops Amid Tariff Concerns 💵📉
The US dollar dropped to a three-month low on Wednesday, following the imposition of tariffs on Mexico and Canada. This decline, which saw a 1% fall in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, signals growing concerns over a potential global trade war and its effect on economic growth. The dollar’s status as a safe-haven currency is also under scrutiny due to shifting global political landscapes. 🌍

US Ethanol Stocks Near Record Levels 📊
Ethanol stocks in the US remain near historically high levels, with a slight decrease from the previous week but still up 4.8% compared to last year. Weekly ethanol output increased by 1.1%, with gasoline demand rising 5% for the week, though still lower than last year. Ethanol production continues to play a significant role in the US biofuel industry. ⛽

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US Corn and Soybean Futures Drop Amid Trade Tensions 🚜💥
Corn and soybean futures plummeted on Tuesday as trade tensions intensified. Corn futures hit their lowest levels of the year, while soybean prices fell below $10 per bushel. The drop was fueled by the US imposing steep tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, triggering swift retaliations from Ottawa and Beijing. There’s concern that rising trade tensions could push the global economy toward a recession, reducing demand for commodities. Corn prices have dropped 14% since mid-February, compounded by better crop prospects from South America. 📉

Potential Tariff Relief for Canada and Mexico 🤝
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has signaled that President Trump might offer tariff relief for Canada and Mexico, provided they comply with the USMCA trade agreement. While a full tariff removal is unlikely, adjustments may be on the table. Both sides are in talks, with a potential deal expected soon. Bipartisan pressure is mounting on Trump to reconsider these tariffs due to their potential impact on consumer prices and the agricultural sector. 🌾

Mexico to Announce Retaliatory Tariffs on Sunday 🇲🇽
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has confirmed that Mexico will impose retaliatory tariffs in response to Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexican imports. The delay in the announcement reflects Mexico's efforts to avoid a trade war. Mexico's retaliatory measures are expected to hurt U.S. consumers and businesses, particularly since 80% of Mexico's exports go to the U.S., which accounted for over $800 billion in trade last year. 🌎

US Economic Activity Could Plunge Due to Trade War 📉
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model has revised its first-quarter growth forecast down to a 2.8% decline, a sharp shift from a previous estimate of 2.3% growth. This marks a drastic change from the 4% growth forecast just one month ago. These gloomy projections reflect growing concerns over the economic impact of the escalating trade war, and the US stock market has taken a hit, erasing post-inauguration gains. 📉

US Farmer Sentiment Rises Despite Trade War Concerns 🌾💡
US farmer sentiment increased in February, with Purdue University's Ag Economy Barometer Index rising to 152. This boost was driven by higher crop and livestock prices and anticipation of federal farm aid payments. Despite optimism about the future, trade policy remains a major concern, with nearly half of farmers believing a trade war is likely or very likely. 🌱

USDA Reports Flash Sales of Wheat and Soybean Oil 🌾💰
US exporters secured two flash sales on Tuesday: 130,000mt (5 million bushels) of white wheat to South Korea for the 2024/2025 marketing year, and 20,000mt of soybean oil to unknown destinations. These sales reflect continued demand for US agricultural products despite the ongoing trade tensions. 📦

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0:00 Trump Confirms Tariffs
1:28 China Tariffs US Soybean Imports
4:51 US Ag Import Tariffs?
8:31 Brazil / Argentina Update
9:47 India Wheat Problems
11:07 Grain Shipments
12:11 Flash Sale

Tariffs Take Effect Today: Canada, Mexico, and China Impacted 🌎
Tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico are now in place, with President Trump announcing a 25% tariff on both countries. These tariffs, along with a 10% increase in tariffs on Chinese imports, have sparked concerns, sending the stock market down. The S&P 500 dropped 1.8%, Nasdaq fell 2.6%, and Dow Jones slid 1.5%. The grain markets also saw selling pressure in response. 📉

China Announces Tariffs on US Agricultural Products 🌾
China has imposed 10-15% tariffs on a range of US agricultural products, including chicken, wheat, corn, cotton, soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, fruits, vegetables, and dairy. The new tariffs will take effect on March 10th, further escalating trade tensions. Canada has also announced retaliatory tariffs, while Mexico has signaled patience without formal retaliation yet. 🐄🌽

Trump's Agricultural Tariffs Starting April 2nd 🍅
President Trump plans to implement tariffs on agricultural imports starting April 2nd as part of reciprocal tariffs targeting US trading partners. These tariffs could impact fruits, vegetables, and nuts, as well as used cooking oil from China for biofuel production. The USDA has forecasted a record agricultural trade deficit of $49 billion for the year. 🍋

Brazil’s Soybean Harvest Ahead of Last Year’s Pace 🇧🇷
Brazil's soybean harvest is slightly ahead of last year, with 50% of the crop harvested as of last Thursday. However, concerns persist in states like Rio Grande do Sul, where hot and dry conditions are causing crop losses. AgRural has reduced its soybean outlook for the season to 168.2mmt, down from 171mmt. 🌾

India Seeks Relief on Wheat Import Tax 🇮🇳
India’s wheat millers are pushing for the removal or reduction of a 40% import tax as the nation’s stockpiles have fallen to the lowest levels in almost 16 years. Reduced domestic production and the government’s release of reserves have contributed to the shortage, with hot and dry weather forecasts adding further concerns about this season’s crop. 🌾🔥

US Corn Shipments Strong Despite Tariff Concerns 🌽
US corn shipments were near the upper end of expectations last week, with 1.4mmt (53mil bushels) inspected for export. Soybean shipments were lower than expected, while wheat shipments showed a slight increase. Despite ongoing tariff threats, Mexico continues to be a top buyer of US corn this season. 🚢

Flash Sale of Corn to Mexico 💥
US exporters sold 114,000mt (4mil bushels) of corn to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. Mexico remains one of the top buyers of US corn, even amidst the threat of tariffs.