Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌽 Crop Tour Shocks the Corn Market — Pro Farmer's survey pegged national corn yield at just 173.2 bpa (15.34 bil bu), well under USDA's 180.7 bpa estimate, with Iowa fields hiding disappointing grain length despite looking strong from the road. Soybeans told the opposite story, with a record 53.3 bpa yield (4.57 bil bu) projected as conditions improved heading west. 📈

💹 Grains Rally on Bullish Tour Data — Corn closed up for a third straight session, with Dec26 gaining 5 cents to ~$5.09, while Nov26 soybeans rose 3 cents to ~$12.40 on tight supply fears and Chinese demand. ❌ Wheat slipped as traders eyed alternative suppliers amid ongoing Black Sea export disruptions.

🇨🇳 China Keeps Buying Beans — USDA flash sales showed 712,000mt of soybeans sold to China and another 720,000mt to unknown destinations, both for 2026/27 delivery. 🌽 Corn also saw 205,000mt sold to an unknown buyer for the new marketing year.

📊 Funds Pile Into Corn & Beans — The latest CoT report showed managed money adding 56k corn contracts (now net long 182k, the biggest since May) and 43k soybean contracts. 🌾 SRW wheat funds added a modest 8k contracts on the week.

🚢 Russia Scrambles to Support Farmers — With over 97% of Black Sea export capacity offline from ongoing strikes, Moscow is weighing loan extensions, subsidies, and government grain purchases to help exporters. 🌍 Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, so the standstill carries major global weight.

🥩 Trump Opens the Door to Cheaper Beef Imports — The administration will allow 300,000mt of tariff-free ground beef imports over 90 days, with exporters agreeing to a 25% discount they claim will reach consumers. 🐄 Cattle groups are pushing back hard, though the volume is only ~2% of US consumption.

📋 Cattle on Feed: Mixed Signals — August 1 cattle on feed hit 11.12 mil head (+2% YoY), with July placements down 11% (a bullish surprise) but longer feeding times masking a shrinking cowherd. 🚪 The report may get overshadowed by Trump's beef tariff news and today's reopening of the border to Mexican cattle.

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🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results — Iowa corn came in at 194 bpa (above the 3-yr average) while Minnesota hit 199 bpa, both showing solid potential despite some pollination and drought stress. Soybean pod counts were strong in both states, especially Minnesota's impressive 15% jump above its 3-yr average. 📈

📊 Grain Futures Update — Corn (Dec26) crept up to ~$5.04/bu on mixed Crop Tour results, while soybeans (Nov26) slipped slightly to ~$12.37/bu amid farmer selling vs. export demand. Wheat stayed mixed as buyers eye alternatives to Black Sea supply. 🌾

🚢 Export Sales Snapshot — Corn sales dipped last week (Japan the top buyer) but new-crop corn and soybean sales were strong, with soybeans hitting 1.7mmt in new-crop demand led by the Netherlands. Wheat sales beat expectations, up 54% week-over-week with Mexico leading purchases. 🌍

🚜 John Deere Optimism — Deere raised its profit forecast and shares jumped up to 10% on stronger 2027 equipment orders and normalizing used-equipment values. The recovery is still gradual, with regional sales down 15-20%, though Deere recovered $382M in tariff costs. 💰

🇧🇷 Brazil's Corn Deficit Widens — Booming ethanol demand is projected to push Brazil's corn deficit to 7.2mmt, up 167% from last season. Rising livestock feed use and slower production growth (due to tight credit) are compounding the squeeze. ⛽

🏥 Farmer Health Insurance Strain — Expiring ACA subsidies have driven premiums sharply higher for many farm families, adding financial pressure on top of tough margins. In Wisconsin alone, 14% of farm families now have no coverage at all, with another 17% relying only on catastrophic plans. 😟

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🌱 Soybeans led a broad grain rally Wednesday, with Nov26 jumping ~21¢ to settle near $12.37/bu on disappointing Crop Tour results. Corn and wheat joined the move higher too, with Dec26 corn topping $5.00/bu overnight for the first time since May 19th! 🌽

🚜 The Pro Farmer Crop Tour hit Illinois and western Iowa, finding IL corn yields down 7.7% YoY at 184.2 bpa and soybean pod counts below both last year and the 3-year average. Iowa fared better, with soybean estimates topping the 3-year average even as disease pressure showed up more than expected. 🔍

🏦 Fed July meeting minutes signaled another rate hike may still be needed if inflation doesn't cool toward the 2% target, even with annual inflation sitting at 3.4%. But softer economic data since then has cut September hike odds to just 36%, down from 70% at the end of July. 📉

⛈️ Severe storms are lining up across the Corn Belt, with Thursday's threat stretching from Nebraska to Minnesota and expanding Friday into Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana. More rounds are expected through the weekend, raising flash flooding and crop damage concerns on already-saturated fields. 🌩️

🚢 Black Sea shipping disruptions could slash Ukraine's wheat exports to just 5-10mmt this season, down from ~14mmt last year, as over 97% of Azov/Black Sea export capacity is lost to ongoing attacks. Ukraine is leaning on rail, the Danube, and road routes, which could cover roughly half of normal export potential. 🌾

⛽ US ethanol output slipped to 1.1mil bbl/day last week, down 2.5% from the prior week, while stocks climbed to a 15-week high of 25.12mil barrels. Corn Belt margins softened slightly but stayed positive, running 15-35 cents in the black. 💰

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🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results – Indiana corn came in at 183.5 bpa (down 5.3% YoY) while Nebraska corn was pegged at 163.6 bpa (down 8.9% YoY), with dryland fields dragging down state averages. 📉 Soybean pod counts were also lower in both states, and standing water in Indiana is raising disease pressure concerns.

🌱 Soybean & Corn Futures Update – Soybeans rallied for a third straight session, with Nov26 closing near $12.17/bu on yield worries, Chinese demand, and rising crude prices. 🌾 Corn slipped slightly, with Dec26 settling at $4.88/bu as traders digest crop tour data, while wheat stayed weak despite Black Sea turmoil.

⛽ Diesel Margins Hit Record Highs – US diesel refining margins topped $100/barrel for the first time ever as the US-Iran war disrupts Strait of Hormuz flows. 🔥 Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries are adding fuel to the fire, potentially meaning pricier heating costs this winter.

🌤️ Cooler, Wetter Pattern Incoming – A jet stream dip starting Thursday will bring cooler Canadian air into the Corn Belt, with highs in the 70s-80s and lows dipping into the 40s-50s. ☔ More rain is expected Friday into next week, which could relieve heat stress but worsen saturation in already-soggy fields.

🇨🇳 China Keeps Buying Soybeans – USDA confirmed another flash sale of 136,000mt to China for 2026/2027 delivery, pushing new crop purchases to 22.3% of the White House's 25mmt goal. ✅ Old crop purchases already blew past their target, hitting 104% of the outlined goal.

🚢 Black Sea Shipping Chaos Deepens—Five grain vessels were attacked near Novorossiysk and Tuapse this week as Russia-Ukraine strikes on ports continue to escalate. ⚠️ With Azov Sea shipments halted since July 10 and terminals suspending operations, roughly a quarter of global wheat exports are increasingly at risk.

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🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results (SD & OH): South Dakota corn came in at 149.1 bpa (-14% YoY) with soybean pods down 20% YoY, both falling short of USDA's estimates. Ohio fared better at 180.2 bpa for corn (-3% YoY), but the tour's steeper declines vs. USDA in both states could be seen as a friendly signal for prices! 📉

🚀 Soybeans Rally Hard: Nov26 beans jumped nearly 24 cents to $12.16/bu — the highest close since late July — fueled by excessive Corn Belt rainfall fears, a strong NOPA crush report, and rising crude oil. Corn also gained ~6 cents to settle near $4.90/bu on Dec26, while wheat traders took profits despite Black Sea shipping worries lurking in the background. 🌧️💰

📊 Crop Conditions Slip: US corn conditions dipped to 60% good-to-excellent (below the 5-year average of 62%), and soybeans slid to 61% good-to-excellent as well. Spring wheat bucked the trend, improving to 52% G/E with harvest racing ahead of schedule at 41% complete! 🌾

🏭 NOPA Crush Report – Record July: Soybean crush hit a record for the month at 216.65 million bushels, up 11% YoY, though it missed trade estimates. Soybean oil stocks crashed to a 9-month low of 1.36 billion lbs — the lowest July level on record — signaling red-hot demand for soy products! 🛢️📉

🚢 Export Inspections – Mixed Bag: Corn shipments surged to a 10-week high at 75 million bushels (+82% YoY!), while soybean shipments disappointed at just 10 million bushels (-46% YoY) with zero activity from China. Wheat exports beat expectations too, climbing 22% YoY to 18 million bushels! 🇨🇳❌

🧪 Phosphate Makes a Comeback: Moroccan phosphate returned to the US for the first time in 5 years, with 54,000mt landing in New Orleans after countervailing duty relief. Don't expect a price crash though — global phosphate supply remains extremely tight, with roughly two-thirds constrained worldwide! ⚗️💵

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🌧️ Corn Belt Flooding Intensifies – The already-saturated Corn Belt got hit with another round of heavy rain this weekend, with Illinois and Indiana seeing localized totals over 5". The White River in Anderson, Indiana crested at 24.9 feet, breaking a flood record that had stood since 1913! 😱

📈 Grain Prices Surge on Friday – Corn, beans, and wheat all rallied hard to close out the week, with December corn near $4.83 and wheat leading the charge near $7.54. Black Sea export worries plus "too much rain" fears across the Corn Belt combined to fuel the move higher. 🚀

🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Begins Today – Scouts are hitting the road to survey over 2,000 fields across seven states, giving us our first real independent look at corn and soybean yield potential this season. The eastern and western legs run through Thursday, and we'll be bringing you daily updates all week long. 🔍

🚢 Black Sea Chaos Reshapes Global Grain Trade – Escalating Russia-Ukraine port attacks are pushing Asian buyers toward alternative suppliers, with countries like Indonesia and Bangladesh sourcing wheat from Australia and Romania instead. Ukraine warned it may only export half its expected ag goods this season as vessels grow hesitant to enter the war zone. ⚓

💰 Funds Keep Selling Ag Contracts – The latest CFTC data shows large money managers were net sellers across corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat for the week ending August 11. It's a continuation of the bearish positioning we've been tracking in recent reports. 📉

🇨🇳 China Keeps Buying US Beans – Another flash sale hit the tape Friday, with China picking up more new-crop soybeans for the 2026/2027 marketing year. New crop soybean sales are now running +153% ahead of last year's pace, largely thanks to a wave of Chinese purchases. 🌱

📊 Wall Street Notches Another Record Week – The S&P 500 closed at fresh highs, marking its third straight weekly gain as cooling inflation data boosted rate-cut-hold expectations. Investors are still keeping one eye on Middle East tensions, though, as rising Treasury yields hint that borrowing costs aren't easing up just yet. 💹

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🌽 Corn Belt Weather 

🌧️ Too much rain is becoming a problem in parts of the Corn Belt. Heavy rain from Iowa to Ohio and into Kentucky has caused flooding, with Indiana and Ohio seeing some of the heaviest amounts. More rain and severe storms are possible in the coming days, and some water levels could approach record highs. Localized crop damage has already been reported from strong winds, flooding, and heavy rain. 

💧 Rainfall has been highly variable across the region. Southern Iowa and parts of Missouri saw drought conditions improve, while dry conditions worsened in central Illinois, western Iowa, eastern Minnesota, and northern Wisconsin. Since the beginning of August, Iowa has received 172% of normal rainfall, Illinois 162%, Indiana 255%, and Ohio 295%. Meanwhile, parts of the Plains remain very dry, with Oklahoma at just 18% of normal rainfall, South Dakota at 32%, Kansas at 41%, and North Dakota at 43%. 

🌾 Areas Experiencing Drought 

•  Corn: 29%
•  Soybeans: 26%
•  Winter wheat: 52%
•  Spring wheat: 63%
•  Cattle: 53%

📉 Grain Markets
 
🌽 Corn futures pulled back Thursday. December corn fell nearly 9 cents to $4.72 per bushel as traders took profits following Wednesday's rally. Large South American crops and favorable U.S. weather forecasts also pressured prices.

🫘 Soybeans finished mixed. November soybeans slipped a penny to $11.82 per bushel. Favorable weather and expectations for large South American supplies offset stronger demand for U.S. soybeans.

🌾 Wheat futures also edged lower. Early gains tied to Black Sea shipping concerns faded after Ukraine proposed halting attacks on civilian targets in the region. Russia has denied receiving the proposal.

🚢 Ukraine Grain Exports Plunge

🇺🇦 Ukrainian grain exports have fallen sharply. Russian attacks on Black Sea ports and vessels caused exports to drop 75% year over year during the first two weeks of August. The disruption comes at a difficult time, with wheat harvest at its peak, storage filling up, and corn harvest approaching.

📦 Farmers are struggling to sell their grain. Without export revenue, some farmers may not have enough money to cover expenses and plant winter or next year's crops. Ukraine is using rail, road, and Danube routes, but those alternatives cannot handle nearly as much grain as the country's Black Sea ports.

📊 U.S. Export Demand

🌽 U.S. corn export sales were stronger than expected. Weekly sales reached 410,700 MT, or about 16 million bushels, up 46% from the four-week average. Spain was the largest buyer, while new-crop corn sales reached 925,000 MT, or about 36 million bushels.

🫘 Soybean demand was mixed. Old-crop sales totaled 75,100 MT, or 3 million bushels, down 48% from the four-week average. However, new-crop soybean sales were strong at 1.8 MMT, or about 65 million bushels, with China the largest buyer.

🌾 Wheat sales remained soft. Sales totaled 255,900 MT, or 9 million bushels, down 14% from the previous week and 8% below the four-week average. Mexico was the largest buyer.

🇨🇳 China Keeps Buying U.S. Soybeans

🫘 China purchased another 125,000 MT of U.S. soybeans. The sale is for delivery during the 2026/27 marketing year. China has now purchased roughly 21% of its 25 MMT U.S. soybean commitment.

🧪 Fertilizer Prices Ease

📉 The global fertilizer market is showing signs of improvement. India received urea offers about 12% below its June purchase price, while urea prices have fallen by more than half from the $959 per ton paid in April.

⚠️ However, risks remain. Reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt fertilizer trade, while stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks are keeping uncertainty high.

🥩 Tyson Cuts Beef Capacity

🏭 Tyson Foods is closing more beef facilities. The company will close plants in Illinois and Utah and is seeking a buyer for another facility in Washington. Tyson plans to consolidate its beef operations around major plants in Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas.

🐄 The closures highlight the severity of the cattle shortage. The U.S. cattle herd remains at its lowest level in more than seven decades, forcing packers to compete aggressively for expensive cattle. Cargill and JBS have also closed or repurposed facilities as the beef industry works to improve margins.

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🌽 USDA Slashes Corn & Soybean Yields—The USDA cut its 2026/27 corn yield to 180.7 bpa and soybean yield to 52.7 bpa, both below trade expectations. Higher planted acreage still pushed total production estimates above July's forecasts for both crops. 📊

🌾 Wheat Crop Stays Historically Small—USDA held its wheat production estimate at 1.53 billion bushels, marking the smallest US crop in 56 years. The report came with a much-improved 62.7% survey response rate. 📉

🚀 Grain Futures Rally on the Report — Corn futures jumped ~20 cents to settle near $4.81/bu, its best close since late July, while soybeans gained ~15 cents to $11.83/bu. Wheat rode the wave higher too, with Chicago and Kansas City contracts both up over 20 cents. 💰

🌱 Prevented Plantings Drop Sharply—Corn prevented plant acres fell 25% and soybeans plunged 56% from last year, while wheat prevented plantings rose 31%. Overall, corn and wheat acreage declined while soybean acreage expanded roughly 7%. 📐

⛈️ Severe Storms Batter the Corn Belt—Winds up to 100 mph, tornadoes, and flooding rains of 8–10 inches swept through the region, knocking out power for hundreds of thousands. Early damage reports appear localized, but more storms are expected through the week. ⚡

🇨🇳 China Books Another Soybean Flash Sale—US exporters sold 244,000mt of soybeans to China ahead of Xi Jinping's expected Washington visit next month. Most buying is coming from state traders, while private importers stay sidelined due to tariffs and weak commercial viability. 🚢

🇧🇷 Brazilian Farmers Face Rising Bankruptcies — Agribusiness bankruptcy filings jumped 22% year-over-year in Q1, led by soybean and cattle producers. Corporate farm filings surged nearly 74% amid higher costs and tighter credit. 💸

⛽ Ethanol Output & Margins Stay Strong — US ethanol production rose 1% week-over-week to 1.12 million barrels per day, with stocks hitting an 11-week high. Corn Belt margins remain solidly positive, ranging from 15 to 45 cents. 🔥

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🌩️ Severe storms tore through the Corn Belt Tuesday, spawning tornadoes in Illinois and Indiana and knocking out power to nearly a million people. Parts of Indiana and Ohio saw 6"+ of rain in 24 hours, and more stormy weather is expected through the week.

🌾 Russian August wheat exports could hit a 10-year low as Sovecon slashes its forecast to 3-3.4mmt amid Black Sea shipping disruptions. Ukraine's exports are also sinking, down 76% in August y/y, after drone strikes suspended operations at two major Novorossiysk grain terminals.

📡 The USDA is overhauling NASS crop reporting, tapping Kip Tom to modernize a system plagued by falling survey response rates. The plan leans on satellite imagery, drones, and machine-generated data to eventually deliver faster, more frequent (and more accurate) corn and soybean estimates.

📊 The USDA's Crop Production and WASDE report drops Wednesday at 11am CST, with traders expecting cuts to corn and soybean yields after a hot, dry July. This is the first report to incorporate actual survey data, and both new crop US and world carryout estimates are expected to shrink.

🚢 USDA confirmed fresh flash sales Tuesday, with 136,000mt of soybeans sold to China and 180,000mt of soybean meal sold to the Philippines. Both deals are set for delivery in the 2026/2027 marketing year.

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🌽 Ultra-Processed Foods Definition Delayed? The food industry is pushing the Trump administration to delay its ultra-processed foods definition, warning it could raise costs and spark litigation. 🏛️ Despite pushback, officials say the definition is still moving forward—just with uncertain timing.

📉 DTN Yield Models Point Lower DTN's Digital Yield Tour pegs national corn yield at 178.5 bpa and soybeans at 52.1 bpa, both below USDA's estimates. 🌾 If it holds, US corn production could fall 8-9% from last year.

📊 USDA WASDE Report Wednesday USDA releases its Crop Production and WASDE report Wednesday at 11am CST, with traders expecting cuts to corn and soybean yields. ⏳ It's the first report to incorporate actual survey data this season.

🌱 Crop Conditions: Mixed corn ratings held steady at 61% good-to-excellent, while soybeans slipped to 62%. ☀️ Spring wheat conditions worsened too, though winter wheat harvest is now 91% complete.

💹 Grain Markets Await Report: Soybeans edged higher, and corn stayed flat as traders sat on the sidelines ahead of Wednesday's data. 🌊 Wheat saw modest gains despite Black Sea shipping concerns, with weak demand still the bigger focus.

🚜 Farmers Push for Transparency & E15 Minnesota Corn Growers' Todd Wentzel says the Fertilizer Transparency Act could ease farmers' input costs. ⛽ With E15 now in the farm bill, year-round sales could be a big win for farm profitability.

🔥 Europe's Fifth Heat Wave Triple-digit temps are scorching France and England as Europe faces its fifth heat wave, worsening drought along the Rhine and Danube. 💶 Losses are already estimated at $1.7 billion, with roughly 9mmt of crops destroyed.

🚢 US Export Inspections Strong Corn export inspections hit 1.7mmt for the week, up 14% year-over-year despite a weekly dip. 🇨🇳 China reappeared in the data for the first time in three weeks.

⚡ Flash Sale Alert USDA reported a new flash sale of 105,000mt of corn to unknown destinations for 2025/2026 delivery. 📈 Total corn sales for the marketing year are now running 23% ahead of last year's pace.