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0:00 "Make Argentina Great Again"
5:30 China Talks Soybeans
6:12 Production Cost Task Force
9:03 Day Trading is Stupid
11:23 Ethanol Production
12:23 Flash Sales

🇺🇸💰 US to Provide $20B Swap Line to Argentina
Washington is stepping in with a $20 billion swap line and potential bond purchases to help stabilize Argentina’s peso ahead of midterms. The peso and Argentine markets rallied on the news, but economists warn that true stability will require deeper reforms. 

🌾 Argentina Export Taxes Return
After just two days, Argentina hit its $7B cap on tax-free grain and soybean exports. The government has now reinstated the suspended export tax. China bought at least 20 cargoes of Argentine soybeans during the window.

🎉 NY Gala & Milei Recognition
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent praised President Javier Milei at a gala in New York, saying Milei is working to “make Argentina great again.”

🇨🇳 China Pressures US on Tariffs
China’s commerce ministry urged the US to drop tariffs if it wants to expand soybean trade. Despite meetings with US Midwest leaders, China has yet to book US beans this marketing year.

🌽 Corn Growers Task Force
The National Corn Growers Association launched a task force to address farm profitability and rising costs. Farmers are now facing their third year of negative returns, with a fourth expected in 2026. 

📈 Day Trading Rule Change
Regulators plan to scrap the $25,000 minimum for pattern day trading. The new intraday margin rule will tie buying power to positions instead. Applies only to equities, not commodities. 

🍶 Ethanol Update
US ethanol output dropped to 1.02M bpd last week, down 2.9% on the week. Stocks are high, but margins remain positive across the Corn Belt. Charts below.

🚢 USDA Flash Sales
Exporters reported fresh sales of soybean meal to Guatemala and corn to Mexico for 2025/26 delivery.

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0:00 Subscribe!
0:56 Argentina Update
3:31 Argentine Crushers Aren't Happy
5:40 Secret Meeting? US/China
7:00 Trump at UN - Russia/Ukraine
9:36 USDA Cattle Plan
11:25 EU Deforestation Law
12:32 Fed Problems

🌱 China Buys Argentine Soybeans
China jumped on Argentina’s suspension of its 26% soybean export tax and purchased 10–15 cargoes for November delivery. Reports now suggest total purchases could be 20 cargoes this week alone. Normally, this business would have gone to the US, but the trade war has shifted flows. Argentina’s crushers warn that local supply is tightening, idle crushing capacity is rising, and jobs are being lost.

📈 Grain Market Reaction
Corn futures gained nearly 5 cents with Dec25 closing near $4.26. Soybeans edged higher to $10.12, while both Kansas City and Chicago wheat also finished stronger. Optimism tied to possible US-China trade progress provided a lift.

🤝 US-China Meeting
A Chinese trade envoy, Li Chenggang, met with US Midwest leaders in Beijing on Monday. Details are thin, but the meeting was confirmed by China’s Ministry of Commerce. It fueled fresh hopes for trade progress even as China avoids US soybeans.

🇺🇸 Trump’s Ukraine Shift
At the UN, Trump surprised leaders by saying Ukraine could win back land from Russia, a reversal from his earlier push for quick peace talks. This marks a potential shift in US policy, signaling stronger backing for Kyiv.

🐂 USDA Cattle Herd Plan
The USDA says it will soon launch a plan to help rebuild the US cattle herd, mentioned in a statement on screwworm control. No details yet, but the program could reshape beef supplies and pricing.

🌳 EU Deforestation Law Delay

Europe has postponed its anti-deforestation law again. The rules would restrict imports of soybeans, beef, and more. Admin hurdles and IT issues caused the delay, but costs could ripple across the supply chain once implemented.

💵 US Economy Update
Fed Chair Powell warned of upside inflation risks and downside jobs risk, leaving October’s rate decision uncertain. Tariffs are pushing prices higher, while labor supply shrinks under tighter immigration enforcement.

🌽 Flash Corn Sale
USDA reported a 5 million bushel corn sale to Mexico. Most will ship in 2025/26, with the rest in 2026/27.

👉 Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates and drop your thoughts in the comments. Staying informed helps you stay ahead in these fast-moving markets!

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0:00 Argentina News
6:56 Crop Conditions
11:05 Brazil Update
12:04 Grain Shipments
13:00 Cattle Rally


🌎 Argentina Suspends Export Taxes
Argentina halted export taxes on corn, soybeans, wheat, and more in a bid to boost sales and stabilize the peso. The suspension runs through October or until $7B in exports are declared. Analysts warn a wave of selling could trigger a supply glut. Argentina is a top corn exporter and the world’s largest shipper of soybean meal and oil.

💵 US Steps In
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US is ready to use all necessary measures to help Argentina avoid another financial crisis after a sharp peso sell-off.

🌱 US Crop Conditions & Harvest
Corn: 66% good/excellent, the highest since 2018 for this week. 11% harvested.
Soybeans: 61% good/excellent, 9% harvested.
Winter wheat planting: 20% complete, the slowest since 2021.
Spring wheat harvest: 96% complete.

🇧🇷 Brazil Planting Update
Soybeans: 0.9% planted, matching last year. Projected record 177.7 MMT crop.
First corn crop: 25% planted, just behind last year.

🚢 Export Shipments
Corn: 1.4 MMT inspected, up 16% vs. last year.
Soybeans: 484k MT, sharply lower from last week.
Wheat: 854k MT, stronger than expected.

🐂 Cattle Futures Surge
A New World screwworm case near the US-Mexico border pushed live and feeder cattle higher, with deferred feeders locking limit-up. Imports from Mexico remain restricted, tightening US supply.

📢 Flash Corn Sale
US exporters sold 320k MT of corn to Mexico for 2025/26 delivery.

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0:00 Trump/Xi Call
1:59 Tariff Revenue for Farmer Bailout
3:41 H-1B Visa Plan
6:42 2026 Acres
8:20 China Soy Imports
9:59 The Funds
10:47 Flash Sale
11:11 Cattle on Feed

🌎 Trump & Xi Set to Meet
President Trump will meet with Xi Jinping on October 31 in South Korea after a two-hour call on Friday. The two leaders discussed trade, fentanyl, and TikTok. Trump called the talks “productive” and plans to visit China early next year. Xi will visit the US later. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains optimistic on a trade deal. However, no mention of soybeans hurt US prices Friday, as China has yet to buy any beans this marketing year.

💰 Farm Aid on the Table
The administration may use tariff revenue to fund a new bailout for US farmers. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins suggested an announcement could come soon. Direct government payments are already expected to reach a five-year high near $41B. The new package could resemble Trump’s $23B farm aid program from 2019.

🛂 Immigration Overhaul
Trump unveiled a sweeping immigration plan, including a $100,000 annual fee for new H-1B visas (up from ~$5,250). Renewals are not affected. The move is meant to encourage hiring of US workers, but critics warn it could hurt smaller firms and AI competitiveness. A new “gold card” residency program will also cost $1M per individual or $2M per business sponsor. Trump claims the measures will generate “hundreds of billions” to reduce debt. This could be significant for farmers relying on H-1B labor.

🌽 Crop Outlook Shifts
S&P Global projects corn acres down 4.3% next year to 94.5M, while soybean acres rise 3.6% to 84M. Wheat acres are expected at 44.6M, down 1.8%. Despite S&P’s view, farm budgets and the corn/soybean ratio currently still favor corn. Ag View Solutions estimates 2026 costs: corn at $4.61/bu vs. a $4.60 Dec26 board price; soybeans at $11.66/bu vs. a $10.66 Nov26 price.

🇨🇳 China’s Soybean Appetite
China imported a record 10.5mmt of soybeans in August, 85% from Brazil. US soybean exports to China are up 31% YTD, but traders think China is mostly uncovered for Nov–Jan, the key US window. With China using ~11mmt/month, the question is whether they’ll rely on Brazil or risk drawing down stocks.

📊 Money Flow & Sales
CFTC data shows funds trimmed net shorts:
Corn: net short 81k (smallest since May)
Soybeans: net buyers of 14k
SRW wheat: net buyers of 7k

USDA confirmed a flash sale of 206,460mt corn to unknown buyers. 

🐂 Cattle on Feed
As of Sept 1:
11.1M head on feed (99% of year ago)
Placements: 1.8M (below expectations, -10% y/y)
Marketings: 1.6M (-14% y/y)
With the cow herd at a 70-year low and no Mexican imports, supplies remain tight—another bullish factor.

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0:00 Great Hair
1:03 Vessel Fees
3:28 Corn/Soy Action
7:27 Export Sales
10:38 CONAB
12:12 Corn Belt Drought and Yields

🌎 Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff!
Today we’re breaking down new US ship fees on Chinese vessels, grain market moves, export sales, and fresh drought data. Let’s dive in 👇

🚢 US Ship Fees & Grain Impact
The US will impose new fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-operated ships starting October 14.
Ships both built and operated by Chinese companies will face the highest costs.
Foreign-operated ships built in China will pay lower fees.
Bulk carriers like Panamax vessels (65,000–80,000 DWT)—which move most grain exports—are exempt, after pushback from farm groups earlier this year.
👉 Grain exports are unlikely to see major disruption.

📉 Grain Futures
Corn (Dec25) slipped to $4.24/bu.
Soybeans (Nov25) dropped to $10.38/bu.
Wheat followed lower.
Weakness tied to harvest progress, a stronger US dollar, and softer biofuel demand.

📦 Export Sales Update
Corn: 1.2 mmt (48 mbu), up 128% vs last week. Mexico led for 4th week in a row.
Soybeans: 923k mt (34 mbu), up 71%. Egypt the top buyer. Still no China purchases yet.
Wheat: 377k mt (14 mbu), near low end of expectations. Philippines the largest buyer.

🇧🇷 Brazil’s Record Crop Outlook
Soybeans: 177.7 mmt (+3.6%), acreage up 3.7%, exports up 5.1% to 112.1 mmt.
Corn: 138.3 mmt, exports up 16% to 46.5 mmt.

🌾 Drought Monitor
Corn Belt drought worsening: 37% affected, up 17% from last week.
Extreme drought in eastern Ohio & SE Missouri.
High Plains saw slight improvement in ND, SD, and KS.
USDA drought data shows:
Corn: 25%
Soybeans: 36%
Winter Wheat: 44%
Spring Wheat: 13%
Cattle: 23%

🚨 Flash Sale to Mexico
US sold 110,000 mt (4 mbu) corn for 2025/26 delivery. Corn sales are now running 68% above last year’s pace.

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0:00 Farm Bailout - How Will it Look?
4:02 Fed Rate Cut
5:42 Bearish Wheat Headlines
8:23 Canada Production
9:34 Ethanol Production

🌾 Welcome back! Today we’re covering farm aid, the Fed’s rate cut, and big moves in global wheat and canola markets.

💵 Farm Aid Push
Republican lawmakers urge Trump administration to deliver new farmer payments
USDA weighing a package similar to the $23B MFP programs of 2018–19
ECAP already paying out $10B this year

🏦 Federal Reserve Moves
Fed cuts rates for the first time since December
New range: 4%–4.25%
Labor market weakness driving the shift
Expectations for two more cuts this year

🌍 Global Wheat & Canola
Russia exploring subsidies to boost sluggish wheat exports
India’s wheat stocks at 4-year highs
Canada: biggest wheat crop since 2013, biggest canola crop since 2018

⛽ Ethanol Update
US ethanol production dips 4.5% week over week
Stocks at 22.6M barrels, down nearly 5% from last year
Margins remain positive across the Corn Belt

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🌾 Welcome back! Today we’re diving into big moves in the currency, grain, gold, and policy worlds—and what they mean for agriculture and global markets.

💵 US Dollar Weakness
The US dollar tumbled to multi-year lows as markets brace for a potential Fed rate cut. A weaker dollar is giving commodities a lift, but stronger-than-expected retail sales could temper the Fed’s dovish tone. See charts on the US Dollar Index, USD/BRL, and Bloomberg Commodity Index.

🌏 Trade & Tariffs
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled fresh US-China trade talks are coming. If no deal is reached, President Trump’s tariffs (34% baseline, up to 60% effective) will take effect November 10. Last year’s $300B trade deficit with China is expected to shrink by 30% this year. Notably, China has yet to purchase US soybeans this marketing year.

🌽🌱🌾 Grain Futures Rally
Corn, soybeans, and wheat all moved higher Tuesday:
Corn near $4.30
Soybeans near $10.50
Wheat higher for the 4th straight session
Drivers: weak USD, smaller crop worries, and optimism over export demand.

🧪 Fertilizer Research Act
Senators Grassley, Baldwin, and Ernst reintroduced bipartisan legislation directing USDA to study fertilizer pricing and competition. Fertilizer now accounts for ~36% of corn farmers’ costs. The bill has backing from NCGA and ASA.

🥇 Gold at Record Highs
Gold surged past $3,700/oz—its strongest run since 1979. Hedge funds and ETFs are piling in, with stagflation and global instability adding fuel. 

⛽ Biofuel Policy Updates
The EPA is weighing proposals to reallocate waived blending requirements from the Small Refinery Exemption program. Options:
50% reallocation (2023–2025)
100% reallocation (2026–2027)
Public comment runs through October 31.

👉 Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates, drop a comment with your take on the Fed’s next move, and hit the bell 🔔 so you never miss a market shift!

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0:00 Direct Payments
4:12 US/China Talks
5:45 Brazil Soy Planting Starts
8:17 Crop Progress/Conditions
10:13 NOPA Soy Crush
11:19 Tyson and High-Fructose Corn Syrup
13:26 Grain Shipments are Strong
14:31 Flash Sale

🌾 Welcome back! Today we’re covering fresh updates on farm aid, trade talks, crop conditions, and global markets.

💰 USDA Aid & Farm Support
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the agency is weighing another round of farmer payments this fall. Rising input costs, weak markets, and stalled trade talks with China are driving the conversation. Past programs (MFP & ECAP) totaled more than $30B combined, and this round could land near $10B—or higher.

🌍 Trade & China Update
President Trump will speak with President Xi on Friday after trade meetings in Madrid. While talks were “very good,” China has yet to book any US soybeans this marketing year. Trump may lean on direct payments to farmers unless a favorable deal emerges.

🌱 Brazil Planting & Production
Brazilian farmers are just starting soybean planting—0.12% complete vs. 0.06% last year. AgRural projects a record 176.7mmt soybean crop, while USDA pegs corn at 131mmt. Dry weather could slow progress.

🌽 US Crop Progress & Conditions
Corn: 67% G/E rating (highest since 2018 for the week), 7% harvested.
Soybeans: 63% G/E, 5% harvested—slightly behind LY but ahead of avg.
Wheat: Winter wheat planting 11% (vs. 13% avg), spring wheat harvest 94%.

🏭 Crush & Processing
NOPA August crush: 189.81M bu—record for August, +20% YoY, above trade expectations. Soybean oil stocks fell to 1.245B lbs, the lowest since Dec 2024.

🍗 Tyson & Corn Syrup
Tyson will phase out high-fructose corn syrup, sucralose, and dyes by year-end under the “Make America Healthy Again” initiative. Corn syrup accounts for ~3% of US corn demand. One study suggests Tyson’s feed needs cover 10M acres of corn & soy.

🚢 Exports & Sales
US corn shipments: 1.5mmt (60M bu), +167% YoY. Soybeans: 804k mt (30M bu), +70% YoY. Wheat: 755k mt (28M bu), +28% YoY. Plus, USDA announced a flash sale of 6M bu of corn to unknown buyers.

👉 Stay tuned, drop your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to subscribe for the latest ag market insights!

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0:00 USDA and Corn Rally
6:10 The Funds
8:26 US/China Talks to Resume
9:39 USDA Reporting Problems
11:12 Rare Soybean Oil Sale

🌽 USDA Shakes Up Corn & Soybeans
US corn acreage is projected to be the largest since 1936. On Friday, USDA raised its estimate by 1.5% to 98.7 million acres. Despite a lower average yield projection of 186.7 bpa, the agency still forecasts a record 16.8 billion bushel corn crop. Ending stocks were trimmed slightly to 2.1 billion bushels but remain the highest since 2018/19.

For soybeans, yield was lowered to 53.5 bpa, but acreage revisions lifted production to 4.3 billion bushels. Exports were cut due to the ongoing US–China trade war, pushing ending stocks higher. If confirmed, USDA’s corn crop estimate would beat the previous record (2023) by a massive 9.6%. 

📉 Funds Add to Shorts
CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed money managers were net sellers:
Corn: -4k contracts
Soybeans: -25k contracts (largest net short since mid-August)
SRW Wheat: -10k contracts

🤝 US–China Trade Talks
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Vice Premier He Lifeng this week in Madrid. The talks aim to lay the groundwork for a deal: China purchases in exchange for tariff relief. This comes as the 90-day tariff truce nears expiration in early November. So far, China hasn’t bought a single bushel of US soybeans for the current marketing year.

🇨🇳 Export Sales Twist
Last week’s reported “sale” of 2 million bushels of soybeans to China actually dated back to January, highlighting USDA reporting issues amid budget cuts and staffing problems. For comparison, China bought 26.8 mmt ($12.6B) of US beans last season.

🛢 Soybean Oil Surprise
USDA reported a flash sale of 22,000 mt soybean oil to South Korea for 25/26 delivery—the first of the year. Flash sales of oil are rare given domestic biofuel demand. 

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0:00 Building Drought
6:13 USDA Preview
9:41 Export Sales
12:21 Brazil's Crop Report
14:20 Inflation is Up

🌽 Welcome back! Today we’re covering drought updates, USDA’s big monthly reports, export sales, Brazil’s latest production numbers, and fresh inflation data. Let’s dive in 👇

🌦 Weather & Drought Monitor
USDA’s weekly drought monitor shows worsening dryness across much of the Corn Belt. Missouri, Illinois, and Ohio saw notable deterioration, while Iowa and Minnesota posted smaller declines. About 20% of the region is now in drought, up 6% from last week. North Dakota remains the most drought-free state in the country.

Corn: 13% affected
Soybeans: 22%
Winter Wheat: 38%
Spring Wheat: 13%
Cattle: 18%

📊 Crop Production & WASDE Preview
USDA releases its September Crop Production and WASDE reports today at 11am CST. Traders expect lower corn and soybean yields, though both are still projected at record highs.
Corn & soy yields expected to be down on dryness/disease
US ending stocks seen slightly lower
Global corn/soy stocks edging down, wheat up

🚢 Export Sales
US corn, soybean, and wheat export sales were all disappointing last week:
Corn: 539,900 mt (down 74%)—Mexico top buyer
Soybeans: 541,100 mt (down 34%)—Unknown destinations top buyer
Wheat: 305,400 mt (down 2%)—Japan top buyer

🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update (Conab)
Conab raised estimates again:
Corn: record 139.7 mmt
Soybeans: record 171.5 mmt
Soy exports: 106.7 mmt, driven by China
Brazilian farmers are wrapping up safrinha harvest and starting first-crop planting.

📈 Economy & CPI
US consumer prices rose 2.9% YoY in August, the highest since January. Food led gains with meat and eggs up sharply. Trump’s tariffs may be adding to pressure. Markets expect Fed rate cuts in September, October, and possibly December.

👍 Don’t forget to subscribe for more daily grain market coverage, and drop your thoughts in the comments!