Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌾 Wheat & Black Sea Conflict — Wheat futures jumped as weekend peace talks between US envoys, Putin, and Zelenskiy made little headway on ending the Black Sea conflict. Ukraine says it's open to compromise on grain and energy, but shipments remain far below normal seasonal pace.

⛽ Fuel Prices & Inflation — Diesel hit a record $5.90/gallon and gasoline climbed to $4.15/gallon as the US-Iran war keeps squeezing oil supplies, with WTI crude near $93/barrel. Rising fuel costs are fueling inflation fears ahead of Friday's CPI report, with markets watching for a possible Fed rate hike.

📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders — Money managers piled into corn, soybeans, and wheat last week, pushing net longs to some of the largest levels on record. Corn's combined futures-and-options position even hit a record net long, though futures-only data fell just short.

🇨🇳 China Soybean Squeeze — Chinese crushers face a tightening Q4 supply picture as Brazilian stocks dwindle and US tariffs keep American soybeans unprofitable. All eyes are on Xi Jinping's upcoming US visit for a possible tariff break, plus a fresh 9-million-bushel flash sale to unknown buyers.

🇫🇷 France Farm Aid—France rolled out $1.2 billion in relief for farmers battered by record heat, drought, and wildfires this summer. The agricultural hit is pushing the country to the edge of recession as a fifth heat wave looms.

🐺 Gray Wolf Delisting — The Trump administration is moving to strip gray wolves of endangered species protection to help ranchers guard cattle and bring down beef prices. New orders also target country-of-origin labeling, Packers and Stockyards enforcement, and easier local meat processing. 🥩

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🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures plunged as optimism over a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal raised hopes for improved Black Sea grain shipments. December Chicago wheat fell nearly 20¢, while KC wheat dropped about 19¢. 

🌽 Corn: Corn followed wheat lower, with December futures slipping about 3¢ on spillover pressure. 

🫘 Soybeans: Soybeans bucked the trend, gaining 6¢ on continued Chinese buying, higher crude oil prices, and concerns about hot, dry U.S. weather. 

🇨🇳 China: USDA reported another flash soybean sale, with U.S. exporters selling 192,000 MT of soybeans to China for the 2026/27 marketing year. New-crop soybean sales are now 104% above last year's pace. 

📉 Exports: U.S. corn export demand was mixed. Old-crop sales posted large cancellations, while new-crop sales topped expectations but remain 31% below last year's pace. Wheat sales also came in below expectations. 

🌡️ Drought: Dry weather continues to threaten the Corn Belt, with drought worsening in several areas. Current drought coverage stands at 28% for corn, 30% for soybeans, 59% for winter wheat, and 82% for spring wheat. 

🚜 Farm income: USDA expects 2026 net farm income to fall 5.5% from last year after adjusting for inflation, but it should remain above the 20-year average. 

🥩 Cattle: Tyson cut its earnings outlook for the second time in a month, projecting deeper beef losses of $625 million to $775 million as tight cattle supplies squeeze packer margins. 

🏭 Beef packing: Tyson has closed several beef plants to cut costs, highlighting the financial pressure facing the packing industry amid historically tight cattle supplies. 

🐔 Poultry: Tyson's poultry business is helping offset beef losses, although cautious consumer spending is beginning to pressure that segment as well.

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🇷🇺 Putin Signals Openness to Peace Deal – Putin said early this morning that several countries, including the US and China, are ready to support a peace agreement, though he stressed Russia and Ukraine must ultimately resolve it themselves. He also repeated prior warnings about potential attacks on airplanes in Russian airspace.

🌾 EU Scrambles to Keep Ukrainian Grain Moving – The EU is working with Ukraine and neighboring countries on alternative export routes as low water levels on the Danube complicate "solidarity lane" efforts, with Ukrainian grain exports down roughly 58% year-over-year in August. The bloc is also weighing extra financial support for farmers hit by this summer's heat and drought.

⛽ US Ethanol Production Dips but Stays Seasonally Strong – Weekly ethanol output slipped to 1.11 million barrels per day, down slightly week-over-week but up 3.7% versus last year, while stocks fell 1% week-over-week to 25.04 million barrels. Corn Belt margins weakened, ranging from 25 cents negative to 10 cents positive per Reuters data.

🌽 Arkansas Harvest Running Well Ahead of Schedule – Arkansas' soybean harvest sits at 4% complete, above the five-year average of 2%, while corn harvest is 42% done versus last year's 31% and the five-year average of 19%. Hot, dry conditions and early planting have sped things along, with corn harvest expected wrapped in two to three weeks.

🇨🇳 Another Soybean Flash Sale to China – USDA confirmed a fresh sale of 202,000mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans to China for 2026/2027 delivery. See the China soybean purchase tracker below.

🥩 DOJ Widens Beef Antitrust Probe to Retailers – The investigation now covers eight major retailers, including Amazon, Costco, and Walmart, building on the probe Trump launched last November over alleged meatpacker collusion. Beef prices remain stubbornly high as the US cattle herd sits at its lowest level in over 70 years amid drought and rising input costs.

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🌾 Wheat futures rallied Tuesday, with Dec26 Chicago up ~9¢ to $7.83/bu and Dec26 KC up ~7¢ to $8.45/bu. The move came after Russia rejected a Black Sea attack moratorium, though it also suspended export duties through year-end.

🌽 Corn climbed too, with Dec26 gaining ~8¢ to settle at $5.46/bu on crop yield worries and wheat spillover strength. Funds may have posted a record net long position of 412k contracts — watch for CFTC confirmation Friday!

🫘 Soybeans stole the show, with Nov26 surging nearly 30¢ to $13.18/bu. EPA's reallocation news, continued Chinese buying, and hot/dry weather worries all fueled the rally.

🛢️ Oil prices spiked 5.2% as WTI settled at $90.22/barrel — its highest close since late July — after US airstrikes on Iranian targets reignited Middle East tensions. Diesel hit a 52-week high at $5.63/gallon, way up from $3.69 a year ago.

🔥 Extreme heat is threatening Corn Belt crops this week, with triple-digit temps risking grain fill and stalk quality issues. Purdue's Dan Quinn expects an early harvest with yields landing near average, not a bumper crop or a disaster.

📊 USDA unveiled a plan to modernize ag data collection, leaning on satellite imagery, geospatial tools, and AI to cut duplicate reporting for farmers. Secretary Brooke Rollins says the goal is timelier, more accurate data while protecting producer privacy.

😊 Farmer sentiment rose for a second straight month, with Purdue/CME's Ag Economy Barometer hitting 135 in August, the highest since December 2025. More farmers now expect to be better off financially next year than worse off, for the first time since June 2025.

🇨🇳 China bought more US soybeans, with a fresh flash sale of 136,000mt (5 million bushels) for the 2026/2027 marketing year.

🚜 John Deere rolled out an AI assistant called JD in its Operations Center app to help farmers make real-time input decisions. It's free, won't sell farmer data, and rolls out more widely later this year.

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🌾 EPA Small Refinery Exemptions: EPA granted full exemptions to 18 refineries and partial exemptions to 11 out of 34 petitions, covering 1.76 billion RINs for 2025. 📈 The agency plans to reallocate 100% of those credits to larger refiners in 2026-2027, sending soybean oil futures sharply higher.

🌍 Black Sea Grain Talks: Turkey has finalized a plan for safe Black Sea grain shipments and is in talks with both Russia and Ukraine. 📉 The hope for resumed exports pushed wheat futures lower, even as Russian airstrikes continued hitting Odesa and Kyiv overnight.

🚢 Grain Export Inspections: US corn export inspections hit a record high for the week at 1.5mmt, up 13% from the prior week. 📊 Soybean shipments disappointed at just 250,801mt (-42% week-over-week), while wheat came in near the top of expectations.

🌱 Crop Conditions Update: Corn conditions held steady at 57% good-to-excellent, but soybeans slipped for a fourth straight week to 58%. ✅ Spring wheat harvest is running way ahead of schedule at 77% complete, nearly finished in South Dakota and Washington.

💰 Soybean Flash Sale: USDA confirmed a flash sale of 159,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery. 🇨🇳 Notably, China was absent from last week's export inspection totals entirely.

🐄 Ranchers First Initiative: USDA unveiled a new program to rebuild the US cow herd, including a heifer retention insurance endorsement and $500 million for meat processing capacity. 🏛️ The plan also adds federal beef purchases for schools and hospitals, plus faster disaster relief access for ranchers.

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🌾 Wheat futures hit a 3+ year high Friday as Dec26 Chicago wheat jumped ~23¢ to $7.84/bu and KC wheat rose ~22¢ to $8.44/bu. Escalating Black Sea military tensions between Russia and Ukraine keep fueling the rally, with Turkey now trying to broker a shipping agreement between the two sides.

🌽 Corn futures also climbed, with Dec26 up 3¢ to $5.37/bu on tight US yield concerns and strong demand. Restricted Ukrainian exports are adding extra support to the market.

🌱 Soybeans joined the rally too, with Nov26 gaining 20¢ to close at $12.88/bu. Fresh flash sales to China and other buyers helped keep momentum going.

📊 CFTC's Commitment of Traders report showed big money managers piling into grains last week, buying 136k corn, 49k soybean, and 12k SRW wheat contracts. The corn net long position has surged to an estimated 379k contracts — rare, historically elevated territory for the fund community.

🛢️ The Trump administration struck a major oil deal with Venezuela, gaining US access to 17 oil fields with ~65 billion barrels of potential reserves. The deal could draw $100B in investment, though relief at the pump isn't expected anytime soon given infrastructure and political hurdles.

🥩 Trump also announced plans to let cattle producers process their own beef, aiming to loosen the Big Four meatpackers' grip on the industry. Critics note the move likely won't meaningfully shift the broader beef market and raises food-safety concerns tied to bypassing USDA inspection.

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🌾 Wheat hits a three-year high as Black Sea exports nearly halt amid Russia-Ukraine strikes—Chicago wheat settled near $7.61/bu, KC wheat at $8.22/bu. It's on pace for the biggest monthly gain since Feb 2022, right when the war began.

⛽ Biofuels: The Trump admin is weighing nearly doubling small refinery exemptions (up to 1.8B gallons) to cut fuel prices before the midterms. Farm groups warn it could crush corn and soybean oil demand, though a 2027 biofuel quota bump may help offset it.

☔ Weather markets: Kalshi is partnering with The Weather Company to grow its weather prediction contracts, with volume up 500% YoY toward a $1.1B annualized pace. The bigger play may be farmers using these as a hedge against rainfall and temperature swings.

🇨🇳 China's crops: Extreme heat and flooding are hurting corn and soybean quality, likely boosting demand for imported corn and sorghum. Soybean imports probably won't get the same lift since China's domestic beans go to food, not feed.

🌵 Drought monitor: Corn Belt conditions held mostly steady, though Wisconsin and Minnesota worsened. Corn 27%, soybeans 28%, winter wheat 56%, spring wheat 80%, and cattle 58% are in some level of drought.

📉 Export sales: Corn sales crashed to a marketing-year low of just 31,200mt, down 87% week-over-week. Soybean sales dipped too, but wheat sales rose 2%, with Mexico leading purchases.

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🇷🇺🌾 Russia-Ukraine Tensions Escalate—Peace talks have collapsed, and Russia is weighing intensified strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian infrastructure, with Black Sea grain shipments essentially halted amid attacks on ships and ports. Up to 70 vessels are stuck waiting near the Sulina Canal, and worsening weather could add to the delays.

📈🌽 Grains Rally on War Fears — Chicago wheat hit its daily limit Wednesday, settling near $7.48/bushel, while KC wheat, corn, and soybeans all posted strong gains. Reuters reports Ukraine's grain exports are down 60% this month vs. July, and Ukraine's farm ministry warns 2027 planted area could shrink without financial support.

⛽🚜 SRE Exemptions Could Balloon—The White House is pushing for more small refinery exemptions to ease fuel prices before the midterms, with industry sources now pegging the total as high as 1.2-1.8 billion RINs. The American Soybean Association warns this could wipe out 500M gallons of biodiesel/renewable diesel demand and cost farmers ~$1B.

🇨🇳🫘 China Buys More Soybeans—USDA confirmed another flash sale Wednesday, with US exporters selling 333,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 2026/2027 marketing year. Check out the export sales and China purchase tracker graphics below.

🏭📊 Ethanol Output Hits Seasonal High — Weekly ethanol production climbed to 1.11 million barrels/day, up 2.1% week-over-week, while stocks rose to a sixteen-week high of 25.21 million barrels. Margins across the Corn Belt weakened, ranging from 10 cents negative to 30 cents positive.

🥩🐄 Trump Eyes Beef Regulation Overhaul—On Glenn Beck's show, Trump floated cutting regulations in beef processing to help farmers, ranchers, and the economy, without offering specifics. Ground beef averaged $7.12/lb in July—up 9% year-over-year and 47% over five years—and Trump also signed a proclamation boosting reduced-tariff beef imports.

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🌽 Corn futures rallied Tuesday, with Dec26 up 8¢ to close near $5.24/bu on shrinking yield expectations and worsening crop conditions. Soybeans climbed too — Nov26 gained almost 14¢ to settle around $12.38/bu on strong Chinese demand and crush margins, though traders are watching for possible Chinese retaliation over new US sanctions on Iran's trading partners.

🌾 Wheat also closed higher despite growing talk of a potential Ukraine-Russia diplomatic resolution that could ease Black Sea shipping disruptions.

🛢️ Diesel markets are bracing for more tightness as Russia weighs extending its export ban — possibly through October 1, or even year-end — in response to Ukraine's refinery strikes, which have hit 18 targets this month alone. Russia normally supplies about 10% of global diesel exports, so a longer ban could meaningfully squeeze prices, margins, and freight costs worldwide.

📦 Soybean exports: USDA flagged a flash sale Tuesday — 132,000mt (5 million bushels) sold to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery. 📊 Check the new crop export sales graphic below for the full picture.

🤖 California ag labor: State lawmakers are weighing a late-session proposal to let autonomous farm equipment work alongside laborers in the same fields, drawing pushback from labor unions over safety and job concerns. Critics also say tucking the change into a budget trailer bill sidesteps normal legislative review, even though autonomous gear from companies like John Deere is already deployed elsewhere in the state.

🥩 Beef tariffs: Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins says the administration is still hashing out details on Trump's plan to pause elevated tariffs on up to 300,000mt of imported ground beef, sold at a reported 25% discount to market prices. 🐄 The idea has drawn sharp criticism from ranchers and lawmakers who say it undercuts domestic cattle producers, despite Trump's "America First" messaging.

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🌽 Corn Crop Conditions Slip — US corn ratings dropped to 57% good-to-excellent, down from 60% last week and below the 5-year average. North Dakota and Ohio led the declines with steep weekly drops. 📉

🌾 Iowa Yield Checks In — Pioneer's 4,000+ yield checks put Iowa corn at 226.5bpa, just shy of last year, while Pro Farmer's estimate came in notably lower at 193.98bpa. USDA's August number remains the highest of the bunch at 216bpa. 📊

💰 Corn Rallies, Soybeans Slide — Dec26 corn climbed to $5.16/bu on weak Crop Tour results and Brazil weather worries, while Nov26 beans dropped to $12.24 on a record-crop outlook. 🌱📈📉

🕊️ Black Sea Diplomacy Talk — Zelenskiy signaled Ukraine and Russia may pursue diplomatic efforts, even as strikes continue and Ukraine pushes allies for more air defense ahead of winter. ⚔️🤝

🇨🇳 New China Tariff on the Table — The US is weighing a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods that would push total tariffs to ~20%, timed ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting next month. 🏭💵

🚢 Export Inspections Mixed — Corn shipments fell 33% week-over-week, soybean shipments jumped 43% with no China purchases recorded, and wheat shipments dropped 17%. 📦🌐

🐄 Mexican Cattle Ports Reopening — USDA reopened the Douglas, AZ port and plans two more reopenings in the coming months as Mexico battles screwworm cases. 🇲🇽🥩