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0:00 China Assessing Talks
2:30 Hassett Comments
3:00 Soybean Stuff
4:59 Farm Machinery Slump
7:52 Drought Monitor
10:58 Export Sales
13:01 California Gas Ban?

🇺🇸🇨🇳 US–China Trade Talks? Signals from Beijing & Washington
Big moves may be brewing in global trade! China says the US wants to talk tariffs, but Beijing is calling for "sincerity." Will this lead to a breakthrough? Let’s break it all down 👇

🧨 Tariff Tensions & Trade Optimism
China's Commerce Ministry revealed the US has reached out about potential talks. Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is hopeful, especially after China removed tariffs on some US goods like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. 💊💻

🚜 Farm Machinery Sales Slump
Tariff uncertainty is crushing machinery demand. CNH Industrial and AGCO posted big Q1 sales drops—23% and 30%. 📉 But oddly… both stocks rallied! AGCO reaffirmed 2025 sales goals while CNH forecasted a steep decline.

🌾 Drought Conditions Improving
USDA’s latest drought data brings some relief 🌧️:
✔️ Drought in the Corn Belt down to 6%
✔️ Kansas sees the biggest improvement—drought fell from 64% to 37%!
✔️ Drought still lingers in wheat and cattle areas (Spring Wheat: 37%, Cattle: 31%)

🌽 Grain Export Sales Snapshot
📉 Corn: 1 MMT – down 12% WoW
📈 Soybeans: 428,200 MT – up 55% WoW
📉 Wheat: 72,000 MT – sharply lower
Top buyers: 🇲🇽 Mexico (corn), 🇨🇳 China (soybeans), 🇹🇭 Thailand (wheat)

🚗 California Gas Car Ban in Trouble?
The House just voted to repeal California’s EV waiver ❗ The Senate vote is next. This could derail the 2035 gas car ban and affect other states like NY and WA. California is the #2 US consumer of both gasoline and ethanol. ⛽🌽

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0:00 EU Deforestation Law Impact
2:56 Corn Belt Rains
4:48 GDP Contraction
8:46 China PMI
9:46 Ethanol Production
10:50 Flash Sale

🪵 EU’s New Deforestation Law 🌍
The 🇪🇺 EU is set to label the 🇺🇸 US as low-risk under its deforestation law, easing concerns for American exporters of beef, grain, and timber. Meanwhile, 🇧🇷 Brazil is expected to be tagged standard-risk, which could hurt its soy and beef exports. A final vote is coming mid-May!

🌧️ Radar Watch: Corn Belt Rains 🌽
Storms are active across parts of IA, IL, MN, MI & IN this morning, with 2–3" possible in IL. More rain is on the way for the Eastern Corn Belt and Mid-South. US planting remains ahead of schedule — see maps below! 🚜

📉 US GDP Shrinks in Q1 🇺🇸
The US economy contracted 0.3% last quarter — the first dip since 2022. A surge in imports (ahead of Trump’s tariffs), weak consumer spending, and a drop in government outlays all played a role. Net exports shaved off nearly 5% from GDP, the worst since 1947! 😳

🏭 China’s PMI Falls Below 50 🐉
China’s manufacturing slipped back into contraction territory with a 49.0 PMI reading. Ongoing US-China tensions continue to weigh on trade and exports. Beijing may soon unveil new stimulus efforts. 📉

🛢️ Ethanol Update: Margins Near Breakeven 🍶
US ethanol output rose to 1.04M bpd last week. Stocks dipped slightly but remain elevated. Margins are tight, with the Eastern Corn Belt reporting the best profitability. ⚗️

🚢 Corn Flash Sale + Export Strength 🌎
US exporters booked 120,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations for 24/25. Accumulated sales are up 26% YoY! With Brazil on hold until July, US corn is HOT on the world stage. 🔥

Stay informed and make better marketing decisions with the data that matters. 💼📈

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0:00 Tuesday Selloff
3:34 China to Reduce Grain/Meal Use
6:04 Transition Planning
7:38 China Comments
8:48 Russia Wheat Update
10:04 Amazon Tariff Charges?
11:33 Flash Sales

🌽📉 Corn & Soybeans Slide Sharply!
Corn and soybean futures took a hit Tuesday as planting progress races ahead! The Jul25 corn contract fell 13¢ to around $4.70, while soybeans dropped nearly 10¢ to $10.53. South American weather is looking great, and there’s no big bearish headline—just a wave of selling pressure as weather premiums fade.

🌾🌦 Wheat Drifts Lower Too
SRW wheat followed suit, down 6¢ to $5.26. Timely US Plains rain and a slight bump in Russian exports kept prices under pressure.

🐖🥣 China’s New Feed Plan
China plans to cut grain use in livestock feed to 60% and soymeal to just 10% by 2030. The shift toward alternative proteins like insects and food waste is a major step in Beijing’s strategy to reduce reliance on US soybeans. 📉

🛑🇨🇳 China Pushes Back on Tariffs
At a BRICS meeting, China warned against giving in to US tariff pressure. Officials demand a rollback of all tariffs before trade talks can start. Meanwhile, the US hints at tougher measures.

🚢🇷🇺 Russian Wheat Export Forecast Raised
Sovecon bumped up its Russian wheat export forecast to 40.7mmt despite ongoing profitability issues. Margins remain tight, and a breakout in shipments still looks unlikely.

🛒🇺🇸 Amazon Won’t Show Tariff Costs
After blowback from the White House and President Trump, Amazon has scrapped plans to display tariff charges on its discount platform, Amazon Haul. The drama continues…

📦🌍 Flash Sales to Spain & Unknown Buyers!
USDA reported new flash sales:
🔹 120,000mt of corn to Spain
🔹 110,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations

👇 Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for the latest grain market insights every week!
#GrainMarkets #Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #ChinaTrade #USDA #Tariffs #AgricultureNews

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0:00 Wheat Futures Fall
3:50 Summer E15
7:36 Corn and Soybean Planting
9:15 US Wheat Update
10:03 China Comments
11:32 Grain Shipments are Strong
12:19 Screwworm Update

🌾 Wheat Futures Tumble Amid Plains Rainfall! 🌧️

Big moves in the grain markets to kick off the week! Here's what's happening: 👇

🌾 Wheat Update
SRW wheat fell 14¢ to $5.31/bu. 📉
HRW wheat dropped 11¢ to $5.40/bu. 📉
Heavy rainfall in Texas & Oklahoma (6–8 inches possible!) forecasted 🌦️

🌽 Corn & Soybeans Steady
Futures mostly flat as traders watch for export disruptions from Trump's China trade war ⚖️

⛽ Nationwide E15 Sales Approved
Emergency EPA waiver greenlights E15 sales this summer. 🚗💨
Analysts expect little impact on corn demand. 📊

🌱 Planting Progress
Corn planting: 24% complete vs. 22% avg. 🌽
Soybean planting: 18% complete vs. 12% avg. 🌱

🌾 Winter Wheat Ratings Improve
49% good-excellent, beating analyst expectations ✅
Spring wheat planting also ahead of average. 📈

🌍 China Shifts Away from US Grain
Record soybean imports from South America expected 📦
Some disruptions after Brazil harvest delays ⏳

🚢 Export Inspections

Corn inspections strong at 1.6mmt 🚢
Wheat and soybean shipments mixed. 📦

🐄 US-Mexico Screwworm Agreement
Border closure on feeder cattle imports avoided ✅
Threat averted that could've tightened cattle supplies further. 🚜

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0:00 Mixed Messaging
3:13 Japan and South Korea Talks
4:06 US Weather and Rains
8:06 Fund Positions
9:21 Panama Canal
10:44 Another Screwworm/Cattle Headline
11:54 Flash Sale

🇺🇸🌎 Trade Talks...or No Talks? 🇨🇳❓

Big moves (and some big confusion) on the global trade front! President Trump says China wants a deal, but Beijing denies any talks 🤔. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent isn't sure if Trump spoke to Xi Jinping directly, though USDA's Brooke Rollins says daily tariff conversations are happening 📞. Meanwhile, soybean futures are feeling the pressure early this morning 🌱📉.

🗺️ Weekend Trade Updates:
✅ Productive talks with Japan and South Korea
✅ New focus on currency policy with South Korea
✅ More rain on the way for the US Corn Belt ☔—see maps below!

📊 Fund Tracker Highlights:

Funds net buyers of soybeans for a 4th week! 🚀
Largest net-long soybean position since February!
Funds sold corn but bought some SRW wheat 🌽🌾.

🚢 Trump's Shipping Push:

Demanding free US passage through the Panama and Suez Canals! 🌍
Reviving US shipbuilding as China tensions rise 🔥.

🐂 Border Watch:

USDA threatens new cattle import restrictions from Mexico. 🐄🚫
Screwworm outbreak grows—action deadline looms April 30!

🌽 Flash Corn Sale:

235,000mt sold to Mexico! 🇲🇽
US remains the top corn supplier with Brazil out of the game (for now). ⚡

👇 Stay tuned, like & subscribe for the latest on trade, markets, and agriculture!
Let's talk about it in the comments! 💬👇

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🇨🇳 China’s Trade Shift?
Beijing may exempt some US goods from tariffs! A task force led by China’s Ministry of Commerce is compiling a list—rumored to include 131 product categories—but no official word yet. This could signal growing concern about trade war impacts. Bloomberg & Reuters both confirm the buzz 📊

🌱 Soybean Prices Surge
Soybean futures climbed for the 4th day in a row, hitting $10.62/bu on July25! Traders are hopeful about rising global demand and easing US-China tensions. Japan is reportedly eyeing more US soybeans, and soybean oil gains added support 🚀

🐖 China Cancels Pork Orders
China just made its largest US pork cancellation since 2020—pulling 20,000mt! Tariffs on pork are now a staggering 172%, and beef faces a 147% rate. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Meat exports are definitely in the crosshairs of the trade fight 🥩

🌽 Brazil’s Corn Crunch
Brazil’s ethanol output from corn is exploding—set to hit 8.25 billion liters this year and more next! That’s tightening domestic corn supplies and may reduce Brazil’s exports… a potential win for US corn competitiveness 💪

📉 Grain Exports Slump
US corn sales dropped 26% on the week, soybeans fell 50%, and wheat saw net reductions 😬. Buyers were Japan (corn), Mexico (soybeans), and Vietnam (wheat). The export scene’s getting tougher.

🔥 Drought Update
Some relief! 🌧️ Drought eased in Missouri, Iowa, and parts of Illinois and Minnesota. But corn, soybeans, and wheat still face stress across big portions of the US 🌾

Corn: 26% in drought
Soybeans: 21%
Winter Wheat: 33%
Spring Wheat: 49%
Cattle areas: 37%

📊 Stock Market Rebounds
Markets popped Thursday as Trump’s softer trade tone gave investors hope. But China says talks haven’t started, so stay tuned… 📉 The S&P 500 is still down 3.3% since April 2.

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Stay informed. Stay ahead. 💡

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🌱 Soybeans Pop, Corn Slips, Wheat Hits New Lows 🚜

📈 Markets on the Move!
Soybean futures climbed 📊—with July ‘25 beans hitting their highest level in 2️⃣ months! The boost came after President Trump reassured markets he won’t fire Fed Chair Powell and suggested tariff relief for China 🇨🇳. Technical buying added fuel to the rally 🔥

🌽 Corn & Wheat Down
Corn dipped as dry weather forecasts may speed up planting in the Corn Belt 🌾. Wheat futures fell, pressured by weak global demand and rain across the U.S. Plains 🌧️. Jul’25 HRW wheat made contract lows overnight ⚠️

🇨🇳 China Crop Trouble
Drought in China’s wheat & corn belts and soggy conditions up north are hitting yields and delaying soybean planting 🚨. At the same time, tensions remain high in the trade war, with China demanding the U.S. scrap all tariffs 🚫📦

⛽ Ethanol Update
U.S. ethanol stocks sank to their lowest since January 🛢️. Weekly output rose, but margins remain tight 🤏. Could tightening supplies lift prices?

🇦🇷 Argentina Harvest Lags
Dry weather will speed up soybean harvest in Argentina 🌞—but March floods already cut into yields. Only 23% of the crop has been sold, the lowest in a decade 📉

🛢️ Crude Oil Drops
WTI fell 2.2% as OPEC+ weighs another output boost 💧. Eight members meet May 5 to decide on June volumes 🗓️

👇 See the latest maps & charts below!
💬 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments! Let’s talk grain! 🌾📉📈

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0:00 21k Subs! Thanks!
0:51 Trump to Ease on China?
3:02 Markets React
5:16 Ethanol Push
6:50 Summit Pipeline Setback
8:05 Another Spring Wheat Contract?
9:33 IMF Forecast
11:16 Trade and Logistics Impact

🇺🇸💼 Trump Signals Softer Tariffs in China Talks
President Trump says tariffs on Chinese goods may be reduced but not eliminated. “We’re going to be very nice,” he added. As markets feel the pressure 📉 and rates stay high, trade talks could gain urgency.

📊 Treasury Talks & Market Reaction
Treasury’s Scott Bessent says current tariffs aren’t sustainable — and that a new trade balance could emerge in 2-3 years. 📈 Stocks rallied on the optimism, with major indexes jumping nearly 3%.

⛽ Midwest Pushes for E15 Fuel Waivers
Seven Midwest governors 🧑‍🌾 are urging the EPA to approve E10/E15 waivers for the summer driving season. They say it’ll boost fuel supply and bring prices down — especially important amid current shortages.

🛑 South Dakota Nixes Carbon Pipeline
Summit Carbon’s pipeline plan got shut down ❌ as SD regulators voted 2–1 against it. The state’s eminent domain ban made land access nearly impossible. Summit plans a new route after investing $150M.

🌾 Spring Wheat Showdown: CME vs MIAX
CME launched its own spring wheat contract to compete with MIAX 🌾. Traders worry the market may not support two. CME is slashing fees to win volume, but MIAX holds strong with historic data and momentum.

🌍 IMF Lowers Global Outlook
The IMF just cut growth forecasts ✂️ for most major economies. For the U.S., 2025 growth is now seen at 1.8%—with inflation expected to hit 3%. The U.S.-China tariff battle is a key reason behind the slowdown 📉.

🚢 SoCal Trade at Risk
The West Coast’s logistics hub may be in trouble 😬. Tariffs are slashing cargo volumes at LA and Long Beach ports. Imports & exports could drop 10% starting next month, though diverted traffic might cushion the blow.

👇 Stay tuned for the latest on trade, tariffs, and fuel markets
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0:00 Subscribe!
0:45 Dollar, Trump, Powell, Commodities
4:06 US / India Talks
8:15 US Planting Update
11:27 SA Countries Benefit from Trade War
13:19 Corn Shipments are Strong

📉 Dollar Drops to 3-Year Low | US-India Trade Talks | Crop Progress & Export Strength 💪

Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff! In today’s update, we cover big moves in currency, trade, and crops. 🌎🚜📊

💵 US Dollar Slides
The greenback hit its lowest level since March 2022 😬 as Trump pressures the Fed to slash interest rates. Tensions rise as the White House reportedly explores removing Jerome Powell. 😮📉

🇺🇸🤝🇮🇳 US-India Trade Talks Advance
Vice President JD Vance visits India and pushes for a fall trade deal 📆. India might slash tariffs on U.S. imports and open the door to ethanol discussions for the first time ever. 🔥

🌱 Corn & Soybean Planting Update
Corn is 12% planted, soybeans 8% 🌽🫘, with some states flying ahead of schedule while others lag behind. Full breakdowns inside! 📈

🌾 Winter & Spring Wheat Snapshot
Winter wheat ratings slip a bit but still beat the average. Spring wheat planting is moving quickly in the north! 🌾⚙️

🌍 Brazil & Argentina Step Up
South American ag exporters are cashing in on the US-China trade war. Chinese buyers pivot to Brazil for beef and beans. 🇧🇷🐄🥜

🚢 Export Inspections Beat Estimates
Corn, soybeans, and wheat all showed strong demand last week — with corn topping 1.7mmt! 📦📦📦

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🚢 Trump Scales Back Ship Tariffs
The Trump administration has softened its stance on China-built ship fees. Instead of $1.5M per port call, vessels will now face fewer charges — and empty grain/coal ships are exempt! 🌾⛴️

🌧️ Rain in the Plains & Corn Belt
Big weekend rains hit parts of Oklahoma, Missouri & beyond. More on the way for the Southern Plains. NOAA’s 3-month outlook just dropped — maps inside! 🗺️

🌽 Drought Monitor Update
Dry week for much of the Corn Belt. Drought eased in some parts of MN/WI but worsened in NE & KS.
🔹 Corn: 30%
🔹 Soybeans: 23%
🔹 Winter Wheat: 34%
🔹 Spring Wheat: 43%
🔹 Cattle: 38%

📈 Funds Go Long Soybeans
CFTC shows big fund buying — soybeans saw the largest net-long since Feb.! Corn and wheat also saw fresh buying. 📊

🇯🇵 Japan Trade Talks
Japan may boost soybean & rice imports. Corn trade steady. Trump presses on tariffs & ag exports — no deal yet, but “big progress.” 🤝

🛢️ Ethanol Exports Boom
U.S. ethanol exports already over 1 billion gallons this year. 🚀
🇨🇦 Canada = top buyer
🇪🇺 EU = huge YOY increase

🚚 Corn & Soybean Export Sales Surge
Corn sales are up 99% on the week. 📦 Mexico leads. Soybeans are also strong. Wheat? Not so much.

🐄 Cattle on Feed Report
Slightly bearish tone — placements up, but still below the 5-year average. Neutral-to-bearish read overall. 📉📈