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0:00 Stupid Theory
4:47 Corn Belt Rain
7:48 Soybean Crush
9:13 Indonesia Trade Deal
10:53 Brazil Tariffs and Beef Imports

🔥 Inflation Rises, Tariffs Bite, and Weather Heats Up! 🌽💰🌦️

Hey everyone! In today’s update, we’re tracking the latest market movers—from soaring inflation to shifting weather and big-time trade news. Let’s dive in! 👇

📈 🔥 Inflation Hits a 5-Month High
Consumer prices rose 0.3% in June—marking the biggest jump since February. Annual inflation ticked up to 2.7% 📊. Tariff-sensitive goods like clothing and appliances saw the sharpest increases, suggesting tariffs may be fueling price pressures. Trump wasted no time calling for Fed rate cuts… again. 

🌦️ 🌽 Rain Watch: Big Totals Incoming
Rain is moving through parts of Iowa, Minnesota, and the Dakotas this morning, with 1–2" expected over much of the Corn Belt in the next 5 days. Some areas could top 3" over the 10-day! Forecasts are calling for near-normal temps this week, but the extended outlook turns hot! 🔥

🫘 NOPA Crush Record!
June soybean crush came in at 185.71 million bushels—a record for the month 📉🛢️. Oil stocks fell to their lowest June level since 2004, dropping below trade estimates. 

🤝 Indonesia Strikes a Deal 🇮🇩
Trump finalized a tariff deal with Indonesia: 🇺🇸 ag exports head in tariff-free, while 🇮🇩 exports face a 19% duty. Indonesia will buy $4.5B in US ag goods, including wheat, soybeans, soymeal, and dairy 🧀. See the Top 10 wheat & meal importer charts to understand the impact 📈🌾.

🥩 Beef Battles: Brazil Tariff Incoming
Starting August 1, Brazilian beef faces a 50% US tariff 🐄💥. Brazilian meatpackers are already scaling back cattle buying. With the US cattle herd at a 70-year low, this could mean tighter beef supplies ahead. Brazil sent $1.4B in beef to the US last year—nearly a quarter of our imports.