Keep it Simple…2 + 2 = 4

It is often said that a picture is worth a thousand words. How many words is it worth if 3 different people see 3 different things when they see that picture? In this episode we further investigate the notion of perspective. Considering other perspectives can change your mind and how we see things around us. Understanding multiple perspectives is helpful in navigating life and successfully managing long-term term wealth in today’s challenging times.

Growth vs. value, the similarities between past and present, and what we think for our clients going forward.

October is cyber security month so Shea interviews Andy E. a national security strategist and expert in counterintelligence and cybersecurity to educate listeners and how to protect yourself. We discuss how cyber criminals use social engineering, phishing, ransomware, bogus calls, spoofing and account take overs to gain access to your accounts. We also educate you on the benefits of Virtual Private Networks or VPNs, Password, 2 factor identification and firewall recommendations.

At a recent board meeting made up of mostly farmers, I mentioned how farmers really have the right makeup to be great investors. The reason…they understand cycles and nature. After seeing a post on Twitter about this topic, I felt it was a little bit of fate or the world around suggesting this as a topic of discussion. This is a little tongue in cheek, but the underlying rules or tenets of “Thinking Like a Farmer” really do apply to investing success and life in general.

The late, great Franco Harris is probably best known for an iconic play in the AFC Championship game that became known The Immaculate Reception. It was an incredible, almost unbelievable play. At the beginning of the year markets were starting to price in an Immaculate Disinflation where inflation was simply going to magically decline rapidly to near 2% so the FED could pause rate hikes, then pivot, then cut them and markets would miraculously avoid any economic pain or reckoning. Inflation rarely works like the politicians who caused it would like. Taking a look at Minneapolis’ FED data confirms that any deflation on annual basis is rare and not near enough to offset the Silent Tax of inflation unleashed. Now, a few younger generations are learning why historically so many have cautioned against letting inflation “get out of the box.”

This is the 1st installment in our “front porch” or “real” conversation series. Cathy Quinn started in this industry in 1982 and will officially be retiring after the 1st quarter of 2023. She has been at “the tip of the spear” of financial planning when the investment industry wasn’t really sure why it was even needed while navigating in a male dominated industry. We thought it would be a good idea for our own Kim Penzone to sit down and talk with Cathy about why planning is so important even to those that don’t think it’s necessary and how it has changed and evolved over the years. With 4 decades of real life experience, Cathy and Kim share stories about best practices, most common mistakes and why everything should start “with a plan.” This is truly an easy flowing conversation that will make you think that you are sitting on a front porch listening to two industry veterans share decades of wisdom and stories in a fun and comfortable setting with lots of real life examples with a dog or two hanging out with you. This is a longer form podcast and we believe it is very much worth the time because it gets to the core of how our team approaches financial planning and why it is so important to success in the investment world.

How could the Germans invade Belgium and France to truly start World War II when the French built the Maginot line and prepared for an attack in vulnerable areas ? Blitzkrieg radically changed all war strategy and tactics from the previous wars. In investing, as in war…either you adapt and change…or you lose. Markets in the next decade are likely to look a lot different than the last 14 years. Leon Levy’s writings from the 1960’s are as true today as then.

Stanley Druckenmiller is an investing legend whose work focuses on overall market liquidity and flow. In a recent symposium he highlighted and anomaly where one part of our government is stomping on the brake to cool inflation while the other is jamming the gas even harder. Why and what does it mean for markets in 2023?

Nature and markets tend to have repeatable cycles. In both, however, it is almost never exactly the same. If history is a guide and Mark Twain’s quote is right, the next 10+ years will look very different than the last 14 or so. Typically what led in the prior cycle, tends to underperform in the next…and vice versa. If this next cycle rhymes with 1968 - 1982 or 2000 - 2009, where should investors focus to prepare for this?

Have you ever found yourself in a situation where you only had 2 seemingly “BAD” choices? Either choice has sacrifices that no one finds palatable…but, unfortunately a choice must be made and “none of the above” is not an option. Welcome to The Trolley Problem or Sophie’s Choice that the FED and Washington, DC have earned. Their answer to this will drive markets and the economy for the foreseeable future.