Kingscrowd Podcast

(00:00) Brian tees up a StartEngine deep dive and notes Kingscrowd own raise on StartEngine. (01:28) Teddy frames the Reg A+ at a ~$2B valuation and walks through 2024–2025 revenue, highlighting how ~82% YTD comes from StartEngine Private. (03:03) He explains the SPV model (buy secondaries, mark up ~25%, sell into a fund) and why GAAP records gross sales as “revenue” while the true economics are the spread. (06:13) Scott zooms out: secondaries fueled 2025, but that pace may be cyclical; the core portal model struggles without scale, pushing platforms toward private, services, and consolidation. (11:48) The team reviews line-item revenues and market data: fewer new Reg CF offerings but higher average dollars; Reg A+ accelerating. (24:15) Looking ahead: success hinges on bigger, better issuers, clearer settlement/transfer, and investor-friendly valuations. (31:40) Diligence takeaway—read filings closely; watch how “revenue” is defined. (32:51) Wrap and reminder about kingscrowd’s StartEngine offering.

Brian, Scott, and Léa unpack the 2025 funding rebound across the online private markets—highlighting Reg A+’s triple-digit YoY growth, steadier Reg CF dollars despite fewer offerings, and how security mix is shifting (more preferred equity, more debt). Then Léa leads a deal review of BabyQuip: revenue progression (~$3.4M FY22 → ~$6M FY24), burn reduction, peak-season cash-flow positives, new “GoQuip” expansion, and partnership-led distribution—while raising again at roughly the same share price as ~2.5 years ago. (Not investment advice.)

Chapters

00:00 – Welcome & agenda: 2025 recap + BabyQuip deal review

01:00 – Headline stats: ~$380M Reg CF, ~$547M Reg A+, >$900M combined

02:30 – Reg A+ up ~124% YoY; Reg CF up ~11% YoY despite fewer offerings

04:10 – Quality over quantity: CF offerings down ~28–30% (~1,000 deals)

06:00 – Security mix: preferred equity hits a high; debt/rev-share keep rising

08:00 – Platform behavior & the “fewer, bigger, better” issuer trend

10:20 – What the 2026 IPO climate could mean for A+ pipelines

12:00 – Introducing the deal: BabyQuip overview (marketplace dynamics)

13:00 – Growth: ~$3.4M (FY22) → ~$6M (FY24), aiming ~+$15% YoY

14:00 – Same share price as ~2.5 years ago: what that implies

15:00 – Unit economics & seasonality; peak months cash-flow positive

16:00 – Burn down: ~$2.6M (’24) → ~$1M (’25)

17:00 – Distribution: partnership placements with a major travel site; more in pipeline

18:00 – GoQuip expansion: beyond baby gear (mobility, beach, bulky travel items)

19:00 – Network effects & competition in two-sided marketplaces

20:00 – Founder lens: marketplace experience & execution discipline

22:00 – Final thoughts, reminders, and Kingscrowd raise/webinar info

Happy 2026! Brian, Scott, and Teddy recap a stronger-than-expected 2025 for online private markets (near ~$902M, strongest since 2021), then outline the 2026 playbook: Reg A momentum, platforms shifting to broker-dealers and solicitation, secondaries/tokenization blurring public and private, and SEC leadership changes that may accelerate capital formation. We dig into the quality uptick from VC-backed CF rounds, how AI will compress build costs and reshape B2B, where risks live (SaaS churn, infra overbuild), and which sectors look compelling (defense, energy). Plus: Kingscrowd Pro launches for industry users, and our Reg CF raise is live on StartEngine.

00:00 – Intro, goals for 2026

01:17 – 2025 recap: funding near ~$902M; Reg A leads

03:41 – Kingscrowd Pro launch + Kingscrowd raise on StartEngine

05:59 – Infra shift: broker-dealers, solicitation, scale

08:04 – Tokenization & secondaries: liquidity and the public/private blur

11:58 – VC-backed CF deals rising; quality & signaling

13:50 – SEC/commission changes & policy backdrop

16:05 – Platforms’ revenue mix pivoting to private/secondaries

18:30 – AI in 2026: breakthroughs, modeling, cost curves

22:40 – Risks ahead: B2B SaaS churn; infra “clean-up”; IPO mechanics

27:12 – Sectors to watch: defense, energy

30:03 – What this means for founders & investors

33:40 – Wrap + 2025 Funding Report next week

Check out Kingscrowd's crowdfunding campaign. 

Brian and Scott kick off with headlines—Invest Act passes the House and Kingscrowd’s StartEngine raise goes live (00:00–00:48), then dig into SpaceX’s $1.5T IPO talk and how pre-IPO targets anchor secondary pricing, complete with SPV stack/fee pitfalls (00:48–06:13). They contrast retail vs. institutional behavior around secondaries and hype cycles (06:13–12:53), before bringing in Teddy to dissect AppTerra’s listing: split math, day-one volatility, and transfer-agent delays that disadvantage crowdfunded holders (12:53–18:16). They close on what needs fixing (pre-IPO transfer readiness, better float/volume) and practical takeaways for retail navigating secondaries and IPOs (18:16–21:19), plus final wrap and what to watch next (21:19–end).

Secondaries just got more interesting. Brian and Scott break down the sudden wave of buy orders in TerraCycle on StartEngine’s secondary marketplace—why shares listed well below the current round price got scooped, how to sanity-check classes and terms, and what real liquidity might look like as ATSs roll out. We also talk through risk profiles, adverse selection vs. forced sellers, and a quick note on GigaStar’s announced ATS timing for creator revenue shares. If you invest in online private markets, this is your playbook for spotting mispricing and avoiding traps.

Highlights include...

• TerraCycle case study: why a flood of sub-$1 asks vanished when a new round priced higher
• How to read secondary listings (common vs preferred, splits, terms, round context)
• Liquidity ≠ exits: why paper discounts still carry long hold risk
• The buyer’s edge: catalysts, filings, platform data, and timing
• Why more ATSs (e.g., creator revenue shares) could change retail behavior
• What needs to improve: volume, price discovery, better issuers, clearer order flow

Chapters

01:16 TerraCycle background: 2020 raise vs. current round context

03:16 The secondary sweep: sub-$1 asks get filled—what likely happened

06:02 Why secondaries matter: volatility, volume, and real price discovery

08:20 Terms & traps: share classes, splits, and apples-to-apples pricing

10:19 “Is this unfair to sellers?” Risk, motive, and market reality

12:25 The bigger picture: retail liquidity, tokenization, and ATS momentum

15:02 Price vs. value: unicorn secondary resets and mindset shifts

18:33 What institutions need: better issuers + larger floats

21:04 Playbook: using platform data & filings to underwrite secondaries

25:33 Creator rev-share ATS note & why it may trade more actively

30:55 Teaser for next week: Aptera IPO & IPO market check

What’s on today’s show • 00:48 Demo Day (Dec 10, 1pm ET): Koios, TMA, Macrovey • 02:14 INVEST Act overview • 03:34 Reg CF lower financial threshold to $250K • 04:21 Accredited via exam + inflation indexing • 05:08 VC fund (3c1) expansion—more investors, larger size • 07:30 Who benefits first & likely sequencing • 09:00 Founders’ raise strategy: CF + Reg D funnels • 10:40 Retail access, products & retirement channels • 12:05 Deal Review: TMA Precision Health—model, data, pricing • 15:40 Claims+genomics data moat, opt-in rates, risks 

Brian, Scott, and Teddy break down Wefunder’s new Top Investors feature—where Kingscrowd Capital ranks #1 in power and influence—and what it signals about traction in online private markets. Then they preview two investor events right after the holidays (Citizens Coffee CEO interview on Dec 4, 2pm ET and Q4 Demo Day with Pacaso’s David Willbrand on Dec 10, 1pm ET). The second half is a deal review of Macrovey (raising on Netcapital): a 40-year materials-handling installer evolving into a hardware-agnostic warehouse automation platform. We cover legacy revenue, robotics-as-a-service, government contracts, margins, and the execution risks of shifting from services to product. If you invest in Reg CF, this one’s a tidy, practical briefing.

Highlights include...

Wedunder launches “Top Investors”—KC Capital lands #1

What rankings actually tell founders & retail investors

Two post-holiday events: Citizens Coffee (Dec 4), Q4 Demo Day (Dec 10)

Deal review: Macrovey—from installer to robotics platform

GTM using legacy relationships + RaaS potential

Risks: org shift to product, speed vs. runway, enterprise sales

Is this an AI bubble, or just the messy middle of a platform shift? Brian Belley and Scott Kitun dig into Michael Burry’s headline shorts and abrupt fund shutdown, big holders trimming AI exposure, and the mega-cap concentration now dominating public indices. Then they pivot to Kingscrowd data: AI-related Reg CF deal counts and dollars raised, how online private markets rhyme (but don’t mirror) VC/public cycles, and what consolidation plus looming tokenized liquidity could mean for retail. You’ll hear practical portfolio takes—when to skim gains, where infrastructure still matters, and why forced illiquidity can help private investors avoid bad timing. Clear-eyed nuance on risk, upside, and pacing—minus the hype.

Highlights include...

Burry’s shorts → fund shutdown: signal or noise?

Mega-cap concentration: index math and why it matters

AI “bubble or build-out?”: infra vs apps, power limits, capex fatigue

Kingscrowd data: AI-labeled Reg CF deals & capital over time

Public → private transmission: sentiment, flows, consolidation

Tokenization & future liquidity: pros, cons, and timelines

Portfolio tactics: skimming, diversification, and sizing

Brian Belley and senior investment associate Teddy Lyons dig into the rise of retail allocations in IPOs—from directed share programs (DSPs) at Lyft/Uber/Airbnb/Rivian/Reddit to broader retail windows via brokerages (e.g., FIGS, Robinhood, Bullish). They unpack why consumer-brand IPOs led the way and whether B2B/pharma could follow. The pair then connect public-market signals (e.g., headline shorts in mega-cap AI names) to private-market risk appetite, before breaking down October 2025 Reg CF totals (~$34M), platform leaders, and notable raises hitting the $5M cap. Finally, they hit industry moves—big-bank/secondary platform tie-ups and new capital for infrastructure players—and what this consolidation means for founders and investors. Data, context, and practical takeaways for positioning into Q4.

Highlights include...

How retail gets IPO access: DSPs vs. brokerage retail allocations

Why consumer brands led—and could B2B/pharma be next?

Public-market sentiment → private-market behavior (AI, shorts, timing)

October Reg CF snapshot: ~$34M; campaigns hitting the $5M cap

Platform dynamics: the “big three” performance patterns

Secondary/infra headlines: large broker/platform moves; fresh raises

How to use the data: expectations, diligence, portfolio pacing

This week, Brian Belley and Scott Kitun unpack the biggest private-markets headlines: Morgan Stanley’s move into secondaries via a leading pre-IPO platform, the surge of H1 2025 secondary volume past $100B (with Evercore on 52%), and why that matters for liquidity. We also break down the Republic “MIRA tokens” model—how mirror/forward exposure differs from owning shares, accreditation/filings nuances, and why tokenized infrastructure could reshape access (or not). Plus: a quick debrief from Washington, D.C.—CFPA Summit takeaways, SEC/FINRA conversations, and Brian’s incoming CFPA board presidency. We close with the perennial question: should the accredited investor definition evolve, and how would that change Reg CF/Reg A dynamics? Clear context, practical implications, and what we’re watching next.

Highlights include...

Secondary market shift: H1 2025 > $100B; Evercore’s 52% share—why it matters

Why big banks want pre-IPO pipes—and what changes (and doesn’t) for individuals

Rumor mill vs reality: portal acquisitions vs white-label infrastructure

Tokenization 101: how “mirror” exposure differs from owning shares; risks & mechanics

CFPA Summit takeaways: demand-driven products, regulatory conversations, retail access

Accredited investor debate: possible tests, impacts on Reg CF/Reg A/Reg D

How investors can navigate: expectations on upside, timelines, and due diligence