Kiss My Assets

Host Kyle Macdonald sits down with CEO Jason Manwaring to unpack three big themes shaping multifamily right now:

1. The top 20 U.S. submarkets for new apartments since 2021 (Phoenix & Dallas dominate),

2. Phoenix August 2025 sales comps—why price-per-unit for 100+ unit deals matched 10–99 unit deals, and

3. A national take: multifamily cap rates stabilizing as rent growth bottoms and supply gets absorbed.

They compare Phoenix's short-term oversupply (and distressed buys at 40–45% discounts) with Flagstaff's near-zero pipeline and 100% occupancies, then dig into ABI's monthly comp set (from Kierland's $419k/unit to distressed buys near $137k/unit). The macro segment hits rate cuts, dry powder returning, and why rent growth, not just rates, could drive cap rates lower from here.

• Where supply really landed: Phoenix submarkets (Avondale/Goodyear, West Glendale, South & Central Phoenix, Gilbert, Pinal County) vs. peers like Austin/Dallas/Houston/Nashville.

• Operator playbook in oversupplied markets: bank-negotiated distress, buying below replacement cost, turning C→B to expand the buyer pool.

• Flagstaff contrast: moratoria, no new supply, full occupancy—why the strategy flips to renovate & hold.

• August 2025 Phoenix comps: ~$289k/unit for both 100+ and 10–99 unit buckets (rare parity), with build-to-rent/newer product pulling averages up.

• Debt & underwriting now: permanent loans over bridge, prove-out rent bumps with current comps, not wishful pro formas.

• Macro inflection: first 25 bps Fed cut, loan originations and equity fundraising up, institutions favoring multifamily & industrial again.

• Cap rates & rents: why stabilizing rents (from ~1% toward ~2.25–2.5% next 12–18 months) may be the key driver of cap-rate compression—more than rates alone.

⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational discussion only—not tax, legal, or investment advice. Please consult your professional advisors.

Host Kyle Macdonald and Neighborhood Ventures CEO Jason Manwaring break down how mortgage-rate buydowns—once hailed as builders' "silver bullet"—are now coming back to haunt homeowners. They connect the dots between teaser-rate financing, negative equity, and the same dynamic playing out in commercial real estate through expiring rate caps. The conversation expands into how multifamily investors can navigate the volatility by focusing on low leverage, smart timing, and vertical integration.

Key topics:

• Mortgage buydowns: what they are, how they work, and why they're expiring painfully

• "Survive 'til 25" and the danger of kicking the can in both residential and multifamily markets

• Rate caps and how commercial operators are facing the same refinancing crunch

• Why distress creates opportunity for disciplined buyers below replacement cost

• The "silver tsunami" of retirees choosing to rent — and what that means for multifamily demand

• How vertical integration (in-house management, maintenance, and renovations) gives operators an edge

⚠️ Disclaimer: This episode is for informational purposes only and is not tax, legal, or investment advice. Always consult qualified professionals about your specific situation.

Jamison and Lexy unpack a new survey suggesting cap rates may have peaked as Treasury yields stabilize—and explain, in plain English, what a cap rate is, why it moves inversely with values, and how rate cycles flow through underwriting. They connect the dots between the Fed's dual mandate, tariffs, and inflation risk; why a true rate-cut cycle would flip us from buyer's to seller's market; and how to think about timing with the classic "market clock" analogy. Then they dive into the numbers: apartment transactions up ~12% in Q2, pricing vs. 2015–2019, why renting is still far cheaper than buying, and why new supply is set to fall off a cliff—a setup for future rent growth. They close with Neighborhood Ventures' playbook: buy below replacement cost, prefer well-located distressed assets, and renovate (or not) where it pencils.

What they cover:

• Cap rates 101 → cash flow ÷ value, and the inverse relationship to pricing

• Why stabilized Treasuries + expected rate cuts could mark the turn

• The Fed's inflation/employment balancing act—and what tariffs might do

• Q2 deal flow: multifamily transactions rising and confidence returning

• Rent vs. buy gap: why apartments still have room to run

• Supply outlook: deliveries slowing sharply → conditions for rent growth

• Strategy now: buy vs. build, replacement cost math, and timing the "7 o'clock" entry

⚠️ Disclaimer: This episode is for informational purposes only and is not tax, legal, or investment advice. Always consult qualified professionals about your specific situation.

Jamison and Lexy break down a sweeping look at today's real estate economy — from Goldman Sachs' warning that a weak housing sector could tip the U.S. toward recession, to why Phoenix and other boomtowns are seeing record home price cuts. They unpack how the Fed's dual mandate (balancing inflation and employment) shapes interest rate policy, and what that means for homebuyers, sellers, and investors. Then, they dig into the latest data on multifamily absorption, build-to-rent momentum, and the office market's slow comeback, revealing how this period could mark a "generational reset" for real estate investors.

What they cover:

• Goldman Sachs' recession warning: housing as the canary in the coal mine

• The Fed's dual mandate explained (and why rate cuts are slow to come)

• Pandemic boomtowns facing steep home price corrections

• Record multifamily absorption and why renters are driving stability

• Build-to-rent's rise and office market recovery through Class A amenities

• Why this could be a once-in-a-decade buying window for patient investors

⚠️ Disclaimer: This episode is for informational purposes only and is not tax, legal, or investment advice. Always consult qualified professionals about your specific situation.

Jamison and Lexy break down a fascinating Denver listing — the Lumber Baron Inn & Gardens — to explain how hospitality really pencils out. They cover "keys" vs. "doors," what 1890s charm costs in maintenance, and why small boutique inns rarely support on-site management. Then they zoom out to today's housing market: why spring home sales fell despite record prices, what that means for buyer affordability and seller expectations, and how Taylor Morrison's $3 billion build-to-rent initiative signals long-term confidence in rental living.

What they cover:

• Hospitality math → revenue, occupancy, FF&E, and risk vs. return

• Multifamily vs. STR: steady cash flow, lower intensity

• Single-family market correction and "strike price" psychology

• The rise of build-to-rent and what it means for investors

⚠️ Disclaimer: This episode is for informational purposes only and not tax, legal, or investment advice. Always consult qualified professionals about your specific situation.

Tax attorney and Directed IRA CEO Matt Sorenson joins Jamison to unpack the new federal tax law—what's real, what changed, and how it hits your 1040 and your P&L. We cover individual updates (permanent lower tax rates, the doubled standard deduction, child tax credit changes, and a higher SALT cap) and pro-business provisions like the return of 100% bonus depreciation (from 2025, permanent) and a permanent 20% QBI deduction for many pass-throughs. We also touch on phase-outs, the pullback of some green incentives, and the bigger macro questions (deficit, tariffs, policy whiplash). Bottom line: more after-tax cash for many households and operators—and planning opportunities you shouldn't miss.

What we cover:

• Individual: rate cuts made permanent, doubled standard deduction, child tax credit updates, SALT cap → $40K

• Business: 100% bonus depreciation (back & permanent), 20% QBI made permanent

• Who benefits (and common phase-outs) + timing considerations for 2025

• Practical implications for investors using IRAs/LLCs and real estate owners

• The tradeoffs: renewable incentives pared back, deficit concerns, policy uncertainty

⚠️ Disclaimer: This episode is for informational purposes only and is not tax, legal, or investment advice. Always consult a qualified tax professional or financial advisor about your specific situation.

CMBS delinquencies are at their highest level since the Great Recession — but what does that really mean for multifamily investors? Jamison Manwaring unpacks the data behind rising commercial distress, explaining how interest rate spikes, construction booms, and tighter lending have collided to create today's challenges — and opportunities.

We also break down how new legislation is reshaping real estate, from extended Opportunity Zones and renewed bonus depreciation to why 1031 exchanges and UPREIT structures remain intact. Finally, Jamison offers perspective on why long-term fundamentals for multifamily remain strong and why patient investors could benefit most in this cycle.

💡 Key topics:

• Why CMBS delinquencies hit record highs and what it signals

• "Extend and pretend" ending — banks forcing real adjustments

• How high interest rates and new supply created a temporary squeeze

• What Trump's latest real estate bill changes (and what it doesn't)

• Why now may be the best buying window in years

⚠️ Disclaimer: This conversation is for informational purposes only and should not be considered tax, financial, or investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial or tax professional before making any investment decisions.

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Selling in a choppy market? Jamison breaks down the three big exit paths for multifamily owners: an all-cash sale (and the tax hit), a 1031 exchange into another property, and a Section 721 UPREIT into a REIT—plus where a DST (Delaware Statutory Trust) fits. We compare tax deferral, control, fees, estate planning, and flexibility (including NV REIT's semi-liquidity), and outline who each option is best for—from long-time owners "graying out" with low debt to operators still scaling.

Bottom line: With a bit of planning before you list, you can potentially save millions in taxes and simplify your life.

What we cover:

• When a straight cash sale still makes sense—and its tax cost

• 1031 rules, timelines, "like-kind," and when to level up into larger assets

• 721 UPREIT: rolling into REIT units for diversification, dividends, and estate simplicity

• DSTs: why some choose them, typical fee trade-offs, and liquidity constraints

• How to match your exit to goals: taxes, heirs, control, and hassle factor

⚠️ Disclaimer: This discussion is for informational purposes only and is not tax or investment advice. Always consult a qualified tax professional or financial advisor before making any decisions related to 1031 exchanges, UPREITs, or DSTs.

In this episode, Jamison Manwaring breaks down the shifting multifamily landscape — from foreclosures and falling values to where the real opportunities lie. We discuss how rising interest rates, new supply, and tighter lending are reshaping the market, and why experienced operators like Neighborhood Ventures see this as a time to buy, not sit out.

Jamison explains recent foreclosure headlines, including the story behind Tides Equities, and shares insights into how today's downturn differs from 2008. We also explore what it means for residents, investors, and the future of Phoenix multifamily.

💡 Key takeaway: The best deals are found when others are sitting on the sidelines — and right now, smart capital is quietly moving in.

In this episode, Jamison interviews seasoned real estate investor Larry Gustafson, who started his investing journey with just $500. With a background in insurance and real estate, Larry has amassed a portfolio of over 67 investment properties, and remarkably, not a single one has been a loss—his closest call still turned a small profit. He shares his experience, hoping to inspire even one listener to take the leap into investing.

Larry walks us through his journey from the very beginning, including how he still lives in the first house he ever bought. His secret? He saves over 50% of every dollar he earns. Larry explains the importance of this disciplined approach and why it's worth considering, even though it's not always easy in today's materialistic world.

We also delve into how he maintains his focus and resists temptations, his criteria for identifying the perfect investment property, and what red flags to avoid.

Larry closes out the episode by offering his best advice to the younger generation: How should you be allocating your hard-earned money today?