We're up 50% higher listings on the market right now than a year ago but 36% under pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

There are more listings that have been coming on the market because there's less demand with higher interest rates.

People pull their listings off the market because it's Thanksgiving all the way through the holidays and then into the New Year. And then you start to see things come back around.

Retail sales were up. Retail sales were good.

1.3% was the month-over-month increase and generally pretty good.

The consumer is still strong. They're gainfully employed. The labor market has not rolled over and we still have had peak employment.

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Instead of a 75 basis point rate hike, it's only seen as a 50 basis point rate hike for the December 14th meeting.

So it's like an 80% chance now and then the February 1st meeting, then after that is only another quarter. So that gets our top line number at 4.5%. 

The market rallied. Some people think it was a technical bounce or a bear market rally. If a market is oversold and the bears were in charge, there's a lot of bear sentiment and there just weren't as many buyers because everyone was selling.

We have a lot less buyers because of higher rates and a lot less sellers because sellers don't want to sell into a higher-priced property.

If they're going to sell, 75% of sellers go buy something else. They'll be forced to buy a higher-priced property at a higher rate.

So price action matters in all of our equity markets.

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Do we have a central bank pivot?

Not just with the Fed but the banks around the world. We saw Australia and England and Canada, all their central banks making moves that seemed to be a little bit soft. They've been softening, not as hawkish.

The Fed had a hawkish tone during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

There was about 450,000 birth/death added.

And then the 60,000 survey component of the BLS report for the October jobs showed that about 400,000 plus jobs of the high-income earners were lost on that report.

We saw Meta mulling over getting rid of 87,000 jobs. We already have a hiring freeze at Amazon. Google's talking about jobs. Half the workforce is let go at Twitter.

You're starting to see these high-paying white-collar jobs that are being announced or pre-announced.

Did we just see the last great good jobs report? Will we start to see more bad news and less good news?

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The credit scoring is changing.

We usually do a tri-merge credit report for loans that are funded. That's three bureaus Equifax, TransUnion, and Experian.

Now you only need two. It's a FICO 10T report with trended data and a VantageScore report and their 4.0 algorithm. That will change the game, two years to implement.

The Fed pivot used to mean we're raising, now we're cutting.

The first phase of that pivot is maybe they're raising in smaller increments like a 50.

Phase two is a hard pause, no more raising.

And phase three of a Fed pivot, the final part to actually fully call it a pivot is that they would actually start cutting rates.

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This is a very volatile market.

I may be wrong for three months and things may come back down. But if it's 3 to 4 months of very volatile 10-year Treasury costs that will cause a little bit of upward pressure on interest rates.

So inflation is still the number one target for the Fed right now, and that will continue to cause upward pressure on bonds, treasuries, suck money out of the stock market, and equities.

JPMorgan Chase is sitting on $1.2 trillion in cash! That includes their loan loss reserve.

The entire semiconductor market is $600 billion.

It is a risk-off market. Money is on the sidelines. It's pretty oversold. And that liquidity drain is not good for mortgage interest rates.

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The earnings season has kicked off!

Will companies start to talk about hiring freezes? Will we see our unemployment rate go up?

The Fed doesn't want to see a really tight labor market with tons of jobs available, which require higher wages, exacerbates the inflationary problem, and eat away at all of our abilities to buy goods and services.

You can now officially apply for student loan forgiveness.

If you have a student loan and you qualify for certain forgiveness, it would make it a little bit more affordable for you to purchase goods perhaps even a home.

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There are 263,000 jobs created in the October jobs report.

The participation rate actually went up overall by about 63.5%.

We have a strong, tight labor market, which is not giving up. The unemployment rate went down, which gives the Fed the green light to hammer another 75 basis points at their meeting in November.

The administration has been pushing a fair housing agenda. To try and serve the underserved and get them into houses.

What's not consistent with that message is that the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (GSEs) are hammering repurchases.

They're hammering us with repurchases, even for loans that are performing.

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Housing has a problem with weather incidents.

This is not a political statement. It's a fact

The Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies put out articles all the time talking about the potential losses for our industry with any kind of weather instance. Whether just normal storms, rains, or even major hurricanes like we just had with Hurricane Ian.

Over $50 billion and counting in damage, it could run up a total of as much as $250 billion.

Inflation has been the last target for the Fed to tackle.

Which is why they keep raising their rates.

They're clearly crushing housing at the moment. It's a difficult time for us, but we'll get through it.

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Latino homeownership is the fastest-growing segment of first-time homebuyers in America.

We buy and sell money in the mortgage business. That is what mortgage-backed securities are.

The Fed is going to squash inflation. They are going to crush inflation. That is what they are going to do.

Inflation was not transitory, but the dollar is strong.

People don't know what price to pay for an asset because the market is moving in what's called a market shock.

Lenders have to have really deep pockets to weather margin calls and cash positions.

We're all working twice as hard for half the money.

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There is a racial equity gap in homeownership. There's a 30% gap, 72% versus 42% homeownership between whites and blacks.

We can do better. We can make things better. Owning a home has been very expensive.

The stock market sold off hard and broke below 3,900 S&P resistance level.

It's a purchase season, but listings are down and they're down even earlier than they typically dip in a purchase season.

People are listing their homes less and less. There are less people listing.

With rates going up super quick, the Fed continues to be data dependent on inflation data that continues to go up. Stripping out that gas number, that core inflation number actually went up in the month of August.

Inflation remains stubbornly high.

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