Kuby's Commentary

Global markets faced sharp volatility as a major escalation in the Middle East drove oil prices higher, pushed Treasury yields upward, and raised fresh inflation concerns. The S&P 500 fell 2%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.2%, and the Russell 2000 slid 4% as investors reacted to geopolitical uncertainty, rising energy prices, and weaker labor data. With inflation reports and developments in the conflict likely to dominate headlines, markets may remain sensitive to geopolitical risk and energy price movements in the weeks ahead.

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Markets are facing elevated volatility after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered retaliation and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil and gold higher. Equities weakened last week amid new tariffs, hotter-than-expected inflation data, and a 7% decline in NVIDIA, which pressured major indices. Defensive sectors outperformed as Treasury yields fell. Investors are watching Friday’s February jobs report for further direction.

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Markets rallied after the Supreme Court of the United States struck down former President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs, but volatility returned as a new 10%–15% global tariff was introduced by executive order, limited to 150 days. While corporate management teams suggest tariff headwinds are easing, they remain a lingering risk. GDP growth slowed sharply to 1.4% in Q4 2025 amid a government spending contraction tied to the shutdown, though much of that drag may reverse in Q1. Earnings season wrapped up with strong results from Walmart, though softer 2026 guidance weighed modestly on shares. Major indices finished higher, led by Technology and Industrials, as investors now turn their focus to AI-driven earnings from Nvidia, Salesforce, and Intuit, along with fresh inflation and confidence data.

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Markets continued their 2026 rotation as investors shifted away from expensive AI-exposed growth stocks into value sectors such as Utilities, Energy, Telecommunications, and Basic Materials. While the Nasdaq fell 2.1% and the S&P 500 dropped 1.4%, equal-weighted and small-cap value indices outperformed, with small-cap value stocks up over 10% year-to-date. Softer inflation data, stronger-than-expected payroll growth, declining Treasury yields, and a weaker dollar supported the broader market backdrop. Corporate earnings remain strong, with S&P 500 profits tracking 13.2% year-over-year growth, reinforcing the bull market foundation.

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Markets delivered a sharp reminder of the value of diversification as leadership rotated away from crowded momentum trades. Small- and mid-cap stocks surged roughly 4%, market breadth improved meaningfully, and corporate earnings strength pushed blended fourth-quarter growth to 13.0%. Meanwhile, large-cap technology and crypto assets struggled despite solid earnings, underscoring a widening gap between diversified investors and momentum-driven strategies. With economic data improving and interest rates edging lower, the week reinforced the case for broader equity exposure beyond large-cap growth.

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For further insights and fund holdings, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.nsinvest.com. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The information provided in this commentary is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security, product, or brokerage service. The information is not intended to be used as the basis for investment decisions, nor should the information be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of any investor. This commentary is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that North Star Investment Management Corporation and/or its affiliates ("North Star") may have bought for client accounts and the diversity of markets in which North Star Investments may invest, and may not be representative of current or future investments. You should not assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable or will be equal to any corresponding performance levels that might be indicated. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments in securities involve risks including the possible loss of the principal invested. North Star and others associated with it, including employees, may have positions in and effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned or indirectly referenced in this commentary. North Star may buy, sell or hold these securities in proprietary or client accounts. North Star will not be providing regular updates or advising you of any changes in the views expressed herein. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation and needs before investing in any security. Tax considerations, commissions, fees and other costs should be carefully evaluated with one's investment and/or tax advisors. Information provided is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but North Star cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or transmitted to any other person in whole or in part without the prior written consent of North Star. A copy of North Star Investment Management Corporation's Form ADV Brochure, Privacy Notice and Business Continuity Plan summary can be obtained by calling 312-580-0900.

U.S. equity markets delivered mixed results last week, with the S&P 500 eking out a modest gain while small-cap stocks suffered a sharp decline. Beneath the surface, it was anything but quiet: earnings growth accelerated, the Federal Reserve held rates steady, President Trump nominated a new Fed Chair, and a speculative surge in precious metals abruptly reversed. Strong corporate earnings pushed fourth-quarter growth expectations near 12%, marking a potential fifth straight quarter of double-digit gains, even as concerns around AI spending pressured major technology stocks. Meanwhile, gold and silver experienced extreme volatility, reinforcing the importance of disciplined portfolio rebalancing amid speculative excess.

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Markets pulled back modestly during a week marked by heightened domestic and geopolitical uncertainty. All major equity indices finished slightly lower as interest-rate-sensitive sectors lagged, while commodities surged amid a weaker U.S. dollar. Investor sentiment was tested by geopolitical headlines and policy risks, even as earnings season delivered few surprises. Looking ahead, markets face a heavy slate of earnings, a closely watched Federal Reserve meeting, and economic data that could shape near-term expectations. #GuidingInvestors #NavigatingMarkets #DecadesOfExperience

For further insights and fund holdings, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.nsinvest.com. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The information provided in this commentary is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security, product, or brokerage service. The information is not intended to be used as the basis for investment decisions, nor should the information be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of any investor. This commentary is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that North Star Investment Management Corporation and/or its affiliates ("North Star") may have bought for client accounts and the diversity of markets in which North Star Investments may invest, and may not be representative of current or future investments. You should not assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable or will be equal to any corresponding performance levels that might be indicated. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments in securities involve risks including the possible loss of the principal invested. North Star and others associated with it, including employees, may have positions in and effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned or indirectly referenced in this commentary. North Star may buy, sell or hold these securities in proprietary or client accounts. North Star will not be providing regular updates or advising you of any changes in the views expressed herein. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation and needs before investing in any security. Tax considerations, commissions, fees and other costs should be carefully evaluated with one's investment and/or tax advisors. Information provided is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but North Star cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or transmitted to any other person in whole or in part without the prior written consent of North Star. A copy of North Star Investment Management Corporation's Form ADV Brochure, Privacy Notice and Business Continuity Plan summary can be obtained by calling 312-580-0900.

Markets finished last week modestly lower on the surface, but breadth told a far more constructive story as small-cap stocks continued their strongest relative run versus large caps since 2008. Advancing issues dominated, the Russell 2000 extended its winning streak, and early earnings results point toward another quarter of double-digit profit growth. Inflation data was largely benign, though expectations for a near-term Fed rate cut remain low. Meanwhile, unusual cross-asset behavior—from rising Treasury yields to surging precious metals—suggests investors are navigating increasingly uncharted territory. #GuidingInvestors #NavigatingMarkets #DecadesOfExperience

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Markets closed the year without a Santa Claus Rally, but investors still capped a third consecutive year of double-digit returns. Large-cap equities slipped modestly last week, while small caps finished 2025 up more than 12%. Stable bond yields, strong corporate earnings, and steady interest rates continue to support elevated equity valuations, though investors are urged to remain disciplined as optimism builds for 2026. Gold surged to a 66% annual gain amid geopolitical uncertainty, while cryptocurrencies pulled back sharply from summer highs. Looking ahead, attention turns to the December jobs report and energy markets as geopolitical tensions rise.

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For further insights and fund holdings, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.nsinvest.com. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The information provided in this commentary is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security, product, or brokerage service. The information is not intended to be used as the basis for investment decisions, nor should the information be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of any investor. This commentary is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that North Star Investment Management Corporation and/or its affiliates ("North Star") may have bought for client accounts and the diversity of markets in which North Star Investments may invest, and may not be representative of current or future investments. You should not assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable or will be equal to any corresponding performance levels that might be indicated. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments in securities involve risks including the possible loss of the principal invested. North Star and others associated with it, including employees, may have positions in and effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned or indirectly referenced in this commentary. North Star may buy, sell or hold these securities in proprietary or client accounts. North Star will not be providing regular updates or advising you of any changes in the views expressed herein. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation and needs before investing in any security. Tax considerations, commissions, fees and other costs should be carefully evaluated with one's investment and/or tax advisors. Information provided is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but North Star cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or transmitted to any other person in whole or in part without the prior written consent of North Star. A copy of North Star Investment Management Corporation's Form ADV Brochure, Privacy Notice and Business Continuity Plan summary can be obtained by calling 312-580-0900.

U.S. equities advanced during the penultimate week of the year as light holiday trading lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, while small caps lagged. Strong third-quarter GDP data contrasted with weakening consumer sentiment, a softer U.S. dollar, and a surge in gold prices—signals that may warrant caution despite year-end optimism. With geopolitical tensions elevated and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook in focus, investors enter the final stretch of the year hoping for a Santa Claus rally while watching key market indicators closely.

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For further insights and fund holdings, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.nsinvest.com. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The information provided in this commentary is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security, product, or brokerage service. The information is not intended to be used as the basis for investment decisions, nor should the information be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of any investor. This commentary is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that North Star Investment Management Corporation and/or its affiliates ("North Star") may have bought for client accounts and the diversity of markets in which North Star Investments may invest, and may not be representative of current or future investments. You should not assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable or will be equal to any corresponding performance levels that might be indicated. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments in securities involve risks including the possible loss of the principal invested. North Star and others associated with it, including employees, may have positions in and effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned or indirectly referenced in this commentary. North Star may buy, sell or hold these securities in proprietary or client accounts. North Star will not be providing regular updates or advising you of any changes in the views expressed herein. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation and needs before investing in any security. Tax considerations, commissions, fees and other costs should be carefully evaluated with one's investment and/or tax advisors. Information provided is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but North Star cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or transmitted to any other person in whole or in part without the prior written consent of North Star. A copy of North Star Investment Management Corporation's Form ADV Brochure, Privacy Notice and Business Continuity Plan summary can be obtained by calling 312-580-0900.