A full Sherbino Theater for the State of the River meeting with the Colorado River District(Brody Wilson)
Whether you live in a town, on a farm, or up in the mountains, water is something that shapes life every day on Colorado’s Western Slope. It's a critically important topic that can be overwhelming for non-water-geek layperson.
This spring, the Colorado River District is holding its annual State of the River all over the Western Slope, including one focused on the Uncompahgre River in Ridgway. The events draw packed rooms filled with local leaders, ranchers, conservationists, and concerned residents — all seeking credible information about the current state and future of water on the Western Slope.
This episode of Local Motion explores issues facing the broader Colorado River system and how those issues could effect us on the Western Slope. Then we bring things back home to our own rivers and creeks, where local groups like Gunnison Gorge Anglers, the local chapter of Trout Unlimited are working on the ground to preserve clean water and habitat for anglers today and in the future.
What’s at Stake on the Colorado
The Colorado River is the lifeblood of the American Southwest. Forty million people depend on it — not just here in Colorado, but in cities like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles.
Here on the Western Slope, we don’t always feel directly connected to the Colorado River. After all, we live in the Gunnison Basin — a different watershed, right?
Not quite. The Gunnison River contributes about 17% of the Colorado River’s total annual flow. So any decision made about the Colorado River’s future directly affects us — how much water we can use, when, and for what purpose.
For decades, the river has been in a slow-moving crisis. Climate change, explosive population growth, and overallocation have pushed the system to the brink. In 2022, the river’s two main reservoirs — Lake Powell and Lake Mead — reached such low levels that hydropower turbines at Glen Canyon Dam were nearly shut down and dam operators were near "dead-pool" where water would no longer be able to pass through the dam. But today, nearly three years later, the system isn’t bouncing back.
Andy Mueller, General Manager of the Colorado River District, has a blunt message: the Colorado River is carrying less water than it used to, and if we don’t change course, the future of agriculture, recreation, and the our way of life across the Western Slope could be at risk.
“The average temperature in March has gone up 4.2 degrees Fahrenheit,” Mueller told the crowd in Ridgway. “And for every 1 degree of warming, streamflow drops by 3 to 5 percent. We’re looking at a 20% decline right here in the Uncompahgre Valley over the last 125 years.”
These trends are part of a long-term warming and drying pattern. Less snow is falling, and what does fall melts earlier. That means less water reaches our rivers — and more of it is lost to evaporation or absorbed by plants growing in longer, hotter seasons.
A Century-Old Agreement, Showing Its Age
To understand what’s happening now, you have to go back to 1922. That’s when the seven states in the Colorado River Basin signed a compact to divide the river’s water. Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming became the “Upper Basin.” California, Arizona, and Nevada formed the “Lower Basin.” Each side was promised 7.5 million acre-feet of water per year.
But there was a problem: the river wasn’t carrying that much water — and certainly doesn’t now. For decades, this over-allocation was masked by big reservoirs like Lake Powell and Lake Mead. But as the drought continues, those buffers have disappeared.
In 2007, the states and federal government adopted a temporary fix: interim guidelines to manage the system during dry years. Those guidelines are set to expire in 2026. New rules must be negotiated now — and the clock is ticking.
“There’s a lot of confusion out there,” Mueller said. “People talk about renegotiating the Compact — but that’s not what’s happening. The Compact isn’t being touched. What’s being negotiated are the guidelines for how Powell and Mead are operated — especially in times of shortage.”
Where the Negotiations Stand
Since 2023, the Upper and Lower Basin states have been working — or trying to work — on a new agreement for what happens after 2026. But they remain deeply divided.
The Upper Basin, led by Colorado, argues that it already lives with the drought every year. Water use here is governed by strict prior appropriation law. When supplies run short, junior water rights are curtailed. That means ranchers and farmers routinely get shut off — sometimes even if their water rights date back to the 1800s.
“We’ve never used more than 4.5 million acre-feet in a single year,” Mueller said. “We’re entitled to 7.5 million. But we live within our means because we have no choice.”
The Lower Basin, on the other hand, continues to use more than its share — over 9 or 10 million acre-feet annually. And it doesn’t have the same self-regulating legal system. Instead, it relies on massive reservoirs to store and release water on demand.
Now, Lower Basin states say they’re willing to cut their use — by about 1.5 million acre-feet. But they also want the Upper Basin to take mandatory cuts, even though the Upper Basin has never used its full allocation.
To Mueller, this makes no sense. “The Lower Basin seems comfortable running the system at the edge of crisis,” he said. “We think that’s dangerous.”
The Federal Deadline
The Bureau of Reclamation, which operates Lake Powell and Lake Mead, has warned the states that they must reach a deal soon. A full environmental review under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) takes years. If the process isn’t started this summer, there may not be enough time to get new guidelines in place by the 2026 deadline.
That means the seven states — Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Wyoming, California, Arizona, and Nevada — have until the end of May 2025 to submit a consensus plan.
If they don’t, the federal government may impose its own solution.
“We’re talking about guideline negotiations,” Mueller reminded the crowd. “But at the end of the day, this is a federal regulatory decision. The Secretary of the Interior has full authority to act, and they don’t need state approval.”
That’s an uncomfortable truth for many water managers. Most would prefer a state-led solution. But the risk of a top-down decision looms large — especially given the new administration’s unpredictability.
The Western Slope's Vulnerability
You might think the Front Range — with its newer, more junior water rights — would bear the brunt of any curtailment. And legally, that’s true. Most of their water rights date after the 1922 Compact. But the Colorado Constitution includes a preference for municipal water use. That means, in a crisis, cities can condemn agricultural water rights on the West Slope — paying fair market value — and divert that water to meet urban needs.
It’s not a theoretical concern.
“If we get to the point where we’ve violated the Compact,” Mueller warned, “we’ll be so far in the hole that every junior right in the state will be shut off for at least three years. And cities like Denver, Aurora, and Colorado Springs will start buying and drying farms on the Western Slope to make up the difference.”
That’s the scenario many fear: a forced shift of water away from agriculture and toward urban use — not through cooperation, but through crisis.
Local Solutions, Local Leadership
Despite the grim outlook, there’s still hope. Local organizations like Trout Unlimited are working to protect water here at home — through advocacy, habitat restoration, and smart partnerships.
The Gunnison Gorge Anglers chapter is an active group focused on the Gunnison, Uncompahgre, and San Miguel Rivers. Their mission: protect cold water fisheries and the ecosystems that support them.
“We like to say that if you can catch fish in it, you can probably drink it,” said board member Marshall Pendergrass. “Clean water benefits everyone — farmers, anglers, and communities alike.”
From reintroducing Colorado River cutthroat trout to redesigning diversions that improve streamflow and fish passage, the group partners with agencies like the Forest Service and Colorado Parks and Wildlife to get things done.
But even Trout Unlimited is feeling the pressure from political gridlock.
“Funding we were promised through the Inflation Reduction Act has been frozen,” said chapter president John Hamill. “We’re trying to get creative, but it’s tough.”
What Comes Next
As the Colorado River’s future hangs in the balance, so does the future of life on the Western Slope.
The Gunnison Basin might feel far from the politics of Phoenix or Washington, but our water is on the line — in courtrooms, boardrooms, and meeting rooms across the West.
There’s still time to shape the outcome — but not much. And what’s decided in the next few weeks may set the course for decades to come.
As Mueller put it: We’re all in this together, and "we need creativity and cooperation among the parties" to find a way through.
