On this week’s episode Tom, Jacob, and Dan talk about automation, lifestyle creep, housing prices, today’s interesting market, Apple’s India play, the undoing of America’s labor shortage, and earnings (with a key point on profit margins).

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How Much Lifestyle Creep is Okay?

Will We Ever See Affordable Housing Prices Again? What is an affordable house? Current housing market update.

Thoughts on today’s markets and what could lie ahead.

Hedge funds are ultra-bearish on US Treasuries (substack.com) - taking the contrarian view?

Apple unveiled its first store in India, Bloomberg reported earlier this week that Apple reported nearly $6 billion in sales in the year ending in March.

US prime-age labor force participation rate (the preferred metric) is back to 2019 levels

Margins are getting pressed, and it’s most prevalent in Tesla (29.1% in q4’22 and 19.3% in q1’23 on higher revenues), but its because of price reductions. Producer prices tell this story all to well. Those seller prices have been falling and that ultimately means companies are getting compressed on margin.

On this week’s episode Tom, Jacob, and Noah talk about success and how deep convictions lead to massive gains, AI’s nondominance in market performance, US bank outperformance, the Fed minutes, and de-dollarization.

Email us at [email protected] for questions or suggestions for future topics.

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What is the ultimate level of wealth?

AI is meant to mimic humans, and that makes it have the same emotional biases we have. It won’t beat the market… inverse AI ETF here we come.

Rising rates? Good for some but not for others

The Fed is unhinged… talks about how there will be a recession in there rate decision meeting and doesn’t pause rates

Let’s talk about de-dollarization… it’s a joke who’s going to provide the world with assets if not the US government *for the time being

On this week’s episode Tom, Jacob, and Dan talk about how your biggest asset should be your best assets, the job numbers, what central banks around the world are doing, Jamie Dimon’s annual letter shareholders, the broad commodity rally, and a fresh perspective on how to choose people in your life.

Email us at [email protected] for questions or suggestions for future topics.

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Suggestion

Where are the jobs going…

Australian CB > The Federal Reserve… Declining yields should tell investors recession not bull market

Take a second to reflect on Jamie Dimon’s composure in his annual letter

Commodities started ripping higher gold and oil

It’s a funnel not a filter

On this week’s show Tom, Jacob, and Noah mix it up by leaning into a new show structure. We talk about how high fixed costs can lead to the death of your financial life, why the stock market makes you feel bad, home prices across the US, Apple’s buy now pay later product launch, the dying metaverse, and what to pack when the weather turns bad.

Email us at [email protected] for questions or suggestions for future topics.

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Why the Stock Market Makes You Feel Bad All the Time - A Wealth of Common Sense

The housing market is rising in the east and setting in the west, just like the sun

Apple Pay Later and AI’s potential effect on marketing, will you be spending more money involuntarily.

The Metaverse goes dark

Donald Trump gets indicted on 30 some accounts of document fraud

There will be losers, the first to feel the tension are using the first to fall

“When the weathermen pack umbrellas, the forecast is for rain.” -Will Robbins, Equity Portfolio Manager at Capital Group

On this week’s episode Tom, Jacob, Dan discuss what credit default swaps are and why they are so heavily watched (especially today), the tech market’s insane 2023 rally, the Fed’s decision, the bond market’s volatility, and Hindenburg Research’s latest attack on Block.

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The Comical

The Headscratcher

What went on

Win of the week

Time Machine

Quote the week

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On this week’s episode Tom, Jacob, and Noah talk about updates in the financial sector, the mass inflows to CDs and money market funds, the safety of your money, AI, and more layoffs.

Email us at [email protected] for questions or suggestions for future topics.

• An interesting question to ponder

o Does more money make you better at managing your money.

• The Good

o While the stock market may be down, our current situation caused a historic bond rally

• The Bad

o Credit Suisse went down and was acquired by UBS for $2 billion $0.28/share; the Saudi’s lose $1 billion on CS

o Is your money actually safe, record CD and money market inflows

• The Comical

o Beloved and debated, French bulldog becomes top US dog breed

• The Head Scratcher

o The yield curve moves towards uninversion on the news of a banking crisis…

• What Went On

o Josh Brown called the top of interest rates, and I’m inclined to believe him

o Three million US households making over $150k are still renters

o Tiger global wrote down its venture portfolio by 33%

o SVB filed for Chapter 11, Moody’s downgraded the US banking system to negative

• Win of the Week

o AI is coming to your office suite, and with ChatGPT - 4

• Time Machine

o Meta lays off another 10,000 employees, which put them below prepandemic hiring trends

• Quote of the Week

o “In both cases success became less about a series of victories and more about going big or going home.”- Ben Thompson

Description: On this weeks episode Tom, Jacob, and Carissa talk about the recent rout of banks that experienced major drawdowns and mini crises, the Powell Congressional testimony, as well as the Friday payrolls report.

On this week's episode, Jacob, Tom, and Carissa talk about Eli Lilly's announcement of a 70% reduction in insulin costs, which is a huge deal as about 1 in 10 Americans have diabetes. We also discuss Americans piling on debt, the moon's new time zone, the Chinese lab leak, Arm listing on the NY Stock Exchange, and once-in-a-generation snowfall in California.

On this week’s episode we welcome Carissa Geske back to sub 0 temperatures from her long vacation to Thailand. On today’s show we talk about how the weather may affect jobs, how the seasonality of jobs may have changed, reviewing the anniversary of the war in Ukraine, big tech’s latest lawsuit, and a ton of other super interesting topics that happened in the markets last week. Email us at [email protected] for questions or suggestions for future topics.

On this week’s episode Jacob, Dan, and Noah discuss this week’s key economic data points including retail sales, employment, and inflation. They also discuss US debt, the housing market, the Ohio chemical spill, and more on Q4 earnings. 

Email us at [email protected] for questions or suggestions for future topics.

Show Notes:

Inflation - 0.5% on the month 6.4% on the year