Lazard Insights

A decade of central bank easing, and the resulting low-volatility environment, has made many investors complacent about risk management.

In the US, unemployment is low, corporate earnings are growing, and businesses remain confident. But with global uncertainty running high, it may be time for investors to refocus on the fundamentals.

Ronald Temple outlines four trade deal scenarios and describes how investors might position their portfolios against a trade-tension recession.

Behind the glum market outlook a European recovery is gaining steam, creating an environment that favors alpha generation, even as fundamentals lag in traditional growth industries.

We discuss the flaws and biases of forecasters and propose a probabilistic framework to forecasting the market.

We discuss how technology is rapidly changing the emerging markets investment landscape.

One of the biggest businesses in the world is one consumers never see and may not even be aware of: the global payments system. We take a look at the giant players in this industry, the evolution of the payments systems in China and the US, and finally, the next opportunity: India.

We evaluate the cyclical factors and the structural support that could revive the housing markets.

The era of benign markets appears to be over. We explain the market’s historic bull run, sources of the market’s recent volatility, and prospects for a shift in market leadership.

AUTHOR

Paul Moghtader, CFA Managing Director, Portfolio Manager/Analyst

Paul Moghtader is a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager/Analyst, leading Lazard's Equity Advantage team. He began working in the investment field in 1992. Prior to joining Lazard in 2007, Paul was Head of the Global Active Equity Group and a Senior Portfolio Manager at State Street Global Advisors (SSgA). At SSgA Paul was the senior manager responsible for the research and portfolio management of all multi-regional active quantitative equity strategies. Previously, Paul was an analyst at State Street Bank. He began his career at Dain Bosworth as a research assistant. Paul has a Master of Management (MM) from Northwestern University and a BA in Economics from Macalester College. Paul is a CFA® charterholder.

The yield curve has inverted prior to each of the last nine recessions. So some investors are concerned that the current yield curve flattening may be followed by an inversion, which could be a harbinger of recession. We see several reasons why this time may be different.

Featured Speaker

Eulogio (Joe) Ramos Managing Director, Head of US Fixed Income Lazard Asset Management LLC (New York)

Joe Ramos is a Managing Director and Head of US Fixed Income. He is also Portfolio Manager/Analyst on the US Fixed Income team. He began working in the investment industry in 1978. Prior to joining Lazard in 2006, Joe was the Chief Investment Officer of Ambac Financial Group, Inc., where he was responsible for the oversight and management of Ambac's balance sheet investment strategies, including the Excess Liquidity, Core Capital, Plus, and levered IA portfolios. Previously, Joe was a member at E.H. Capital Group, LLC, a Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager at Lazard Asset Management, a First Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager at Lehman Management Co., and a Senior Analyst in the Lehman Brothers Kuhn Loeb Fixed Income Research Department. He has a BS from New York University. Joe Ramos is a member of the CFA Institute, the NYSSA and the Economic Club of New York.