ChinaEconTalk

Learning from Ukraine, Preparing for Taiwan


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Mick Ryan is a retired major general in the Australian army and author of three books — War Transformed: The Future of Twenty-First-Century Great Power Competition and Conflict, White Sun War, which is a piece of fiction about a near-future Taiwan war, and The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire. He also writes the excellent Futura Doctrina Substack, which has taught me a tremendous amount over the past few years. The way Mick synthesizes history and contemporary conflict makes it one of my few true must-read Substacks.

In today’s conversation, we discuss…

  • Lessons from the history of warfare, and how to apply them to modern conflict,
  • Why superweapons don’t win wars, and how the human dimension of war will shape military applications of AI,
  • Why economic integration alone cannot prevent a US-China war,
  • The role of deception and the limits of battlefield surveillance, with case studies in Ukraine and Afghanistan,
  • Mick’s four filters for applying lessons from Ukraine to a Taiwan contingency, and the underappreciated role of Taiwanese public opinion in shaping CCP goals.
  • Thanks to the Hudson Institute’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology for sponsoring this podcast.

    Outro music: Elvis Presley — Down by the Riverside (YouTube Link)

    Reading recommendations:

    Paul KennedyThe Rise and Fall of the Great Powers and Engineers of Victory: The Problem Solvers Who Turned the Tide in the Second World War

    Norman F. DixonOn the Psychology of Military Incompetence 

    Aimée FoxLearning to Fight: Military Innovation and Change in the British Army, 1914–1918 

    Williamson Murray & Allan R. MillettMilitary Innovation in the Interwar Period and Military Effectiveness trilogy 

    Trent HoneLearning War: The Evolution of Fighting Doctrine in the U.S. Navy, 1898–1945 

    Brent L. SterlingOther People’s Wars: The U.S. Military and the Challenge of Learning from Foreign Conflicts (2021)

    Dima AdamskyThe Culture of Military Innovation: The Impact of Cultural Factors on the Revolution in Military Affairs in Russia, the US, and Israel (2010)

    Meir FinkelOn Flexibility: Recovery from Technological and Doctrinal Surprise on the Battlefield and Military Agility: Ensuring Rapid and Effective Transition from Peace to War

    Andrew Krepinevich —  The Origins of Victory: How Disruptive Military Innovation Determines the Fates of Great Powers

    R.V. Jones —  The Wizard War: British Scientific Intelligence 1939-1945

    Francis Hoffman — Mars Adapting: Military Change During War

    You can find more syllabi on Mick Ryan's Substack (here and here)

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    ChinaEconTalkBy SupChina