ChinaEconTalk

ChinaEconTalk

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ChinaEconTalk episodes

  • Overfit: AI Lovers, Chinese Model Takeover, Vice Signalling, Hefei Model

    Jasmine Sun (https://jasmi.news/), Nathan Lambert (https://www.interconnects.ai/), and special guest Afra Wang (https://afraw.substack.com/).

    Our article on 'China makes AI girlfriends and America makes AI boyfriends' https://www.chinatalk.media/p/why-america-builds-ai-girlfriends

    More on the Hefei model: https://hellochinatech.substack.com/p/china-hefei-model

    05:53 ai

    12:46 remorseful AI models

    29:43 AI in porn

    32:17 ai voice generation uncanny valley

    34:55 good Chinese AI models and the hefei model

    47:40 Vice Signaling

    Outtro music: a suno song with kimi-generated generated lyrics called "A glitch in the gospel" https://suno.com/s/O8tIJ63c7t3NOEtO

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    1 hr
  • Second Breakfast: Colby's Pigpen, Counter-UAS, Training, Eat like a Trumper (or Iranian Spy?)

    we cooked better than cafe milano

    00:00 Colby's trainwreck of a hearing + right wing DC food

    16:42 Countering Drones

    35:32 How to train seriously

    Guests include:

    • Tony Stark, Army vet who writes https://www.breakingbeijing.com/
    • Justin McIntosh, former Green beret who writes https://justinmc.substack.com/
    • Eric Robinson, lawyer and Army vet who spent time in OSC, JSOC and the NCTC

      • Outtro music: more suno https://suno.com/s/hpZX8pdjirTsM5je

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      1 hr 6 min
    • EMERGENCY POD: Tariffs on Trial

      Peter Harrell and Oren Cass join the show to talk IEEPA at the Supreme Court and broader US grand strategy towards China.

      03:01 IEPA Tariffs and Their Implications

      17:27 Reciprocity and Trade Agreements

      20:13 USMCA and Fortress North America

      39:01 Decoupling from China: A Strategic Perspective

      43:41 Trump's Economic Approach to China

      47:48 The Chips Debate: National Security and Economic Interests

      01:05:24 Reflections on Political Discourse and Legal Arguments

      01:16:17 a ridiculous suno song

      We discuss Oren's 'Grand Strategy of Reciprocity' https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/grand-strategy-reciprocity and 'Stop Selling the Rope' essays https://americancompass.org/stop-selling-the-rope/

      Outtro music: Suno does Hamilton for this case https://suno.com/s/xPRkTjq5KQ4MPXLb

      Peter's amicus brief: https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24/24-1287/380641/20251024173045050_24-1287%2025-150%20Amicus%20Brief.pdf

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      1 hr 22 min
    • CCP Bureaucracies in War

      Why do leaders with vast expert bureaucracies at their fingertips make devastating foreign policy decisions? Tyler Jost, professor at Brown, joins ChinaTalk to discuss his first book, Bureaucracies at War, a fascinating analysis of miscalculation in international conflicts.

      As we travel from Mao’s role in border conflicts, to Deng’s blunder in Vietnam, to LBJ’s own Vietnam error, a tragic pattern emerges — leaders gradually isolating themselves from their own information gathering systems with catastrophic consequences.

      Today our conversation covers…

      • How Mao’s early success undermined his long-term decision-making,

      • The role of succession pressures in both Deng’s and LBJ’s actions in Vietnam,

      • The bureaucratic mechanisms that lead to echo chambers, and how China’s siloed institutions affect Xi’s governance,

      • The lingering question of succession in China,

      • What we can learn from the institutional failures behind Vietnam and Iraq.

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        1 hr 22 min
      • Second Breakfast: Xi-Trump, Taiwan Deterrence, Tibetan Buddhism, Antietam

        Featuring the Kirsten and Charlotte Asdal alongside Tony (https://www.breakingbeijing.com/) Eric Robinson, Justin (https://justinmc.substack.com/) and myself

        Chapters

        02:55 US-China Relations: Punctuated Decoupling

        05:52 Woo Trump didn't sell out Taiwan! But what if he did?

        08:21 Xi Jinping's Confidence and Military Calculations

        24:12 Blockades

        28:54 Innovation vs. Production in Defense Technology

        43:08 Book Recommendations and Cultural Reflections

        44:57 Game of the Week: Historical Insights

        Outtro music: suno' s version of bad bunny singing about antietam. I promise I won't do this for every episode outtro until the AI gets better.

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        54 min
      • Ukraine's Drone War with Shashank and Rob Lee

        Joining the pod today are Rob Lee of FPRI, Shashank Joshi of the Economist, and Tony Stark of the Breaking Beijing substack.

        We discuss…

        • Whether Ukraine represents a revolution in military affairs and what lessons the war holds for other theaters
        • Why roughly 80% of casualties in Ukraine are caused by UAVs, and the symbiotic relationship between artillery and drones,
        • The limits of FPVs and UAVs, tactics to counter UAV attacks, and the role of unmanned ground vehicles,
        • Institutional friction within the Ukrainian forces,
        • How Chinese components and commercial drones from DJI are shaping the battlefield.
        • Drone incidents over Europe, burden sharing, and the US policy climate.

          • Outro music:  Leon Bridges and Khruangbin - Texas Sun, a song that made it onto a 2022 playlist a reporter made of songs they heard on the front in Ukraine (⁠https://open.spotify.com/playlist/72paG2c3VqKblZsZlsCBOx?si=ace9197c40c6440f⁠)

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          1 hr 35 min
        • Japan's New Prime Minister: What to Expect

          Tobias Harris of the Observing Japan substack returns to catch us up on the new Prime Minister. We get into what Takaichii's deal is, chart her rise to power, explore the domestic constraints she'll operate under, and what she will mean for Japan's international relations and defense policy.

          Chapters:

          00:00 Election Upset and Political Drama

          07:43 The Rise of Takaichi, Her Political Background and Style

          24:27 National Defense and International Relations

          40:58 Coalition Challenges and Government Stability

          48:33 Implications of a Minority Government

          01:03:47 How She'll Do With Trump

          Outtro Music: Gotta - Tade Dust




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          1 hr 15 min
        • Ukraine's Drone War with Shashank and Rob Lee

          Joining the pod today are Rob Lee of FPRI, Shashank Joshi of the Economist, and Tony Stark of the Breaking Beijing substack.

          We discuss…

          • Whether Ukraine represents a revolution in military affairs and what lessons the war holds for other theaters
          • Why roughly 80% of casualties in Ukraine are caused by UAVs, and the symbiotic relationship between artillery and drones,
          • The limits of FPVs and UAVs, tactics to counter UAV attacks, and the role of unmanned ground vehicles,
          • Institutional friction within the Ukrainian forces,
          • How Chinese components and commercial drones from DJI are shaping the battlefield.
          • Drone incidents over Europe, burden sharing, and the US policy climate.

            • Outro music:  Leon Bridges and Khruangbin - Texas Sun, a song that made it onto a 2022 playlist a reporter made of songs they heard on the front in Ukraine (https://open.spotify.com/playlist/72paG2c3VqKblZsZlsCBOx?si=ace9197c40c6440f)

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            1 hr 35 min
          • Second Breakfast: Venezuela, Shutdowns, PE + Army, E.B. Sledge

            Bryan, Eric, and Justin join the fun.

            00:00 Venezuela

            16:08 Shutdown Effects on Military Operations

            34:45 The PE Army Takeover + Datacenters

            46:32 Submarine Detection and Naval Strategy

            48:44 Sledge

            Outtro Music: Botaste la Bola, Un Solo Pueblo

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            53 min
          • PLA Purges and How Xi Rules with Jon Czin

            Jon Czin spent years as a top China analyst at the CIA, served as China Director on Biden’s National Security Council, and now works at the Brookings Institution. We discuss what Xi’s fourth-term means for China’s top leadership and military, Taiwan, and the US. We cover:

            • How Xi’s mafioso-style “decapitation strategy” has kept the PLA in line and why he’s purged more generals than Mao.

            • Cognitive decline and how end-of-life thinking might be shaping Xi’s succession plans and Taiwan strategy.

            • Tariffs, rare earths, and China’s appetite for pain vs. America’s.

            • Beijing’s parochialism and its limits in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.

            • What intelligence work on China actually looks like and whether or not Xi’s era is duller than previous generations.

              Plus: who might succeed Xi, comparing the Politburo Standing Committee to a frat house, and why chips and TSMC matter much less in Xi’s Taiwan calculus than most think.

              Outtro Music:

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              1 hr 55 min

            About ChinaEconTalk

            From the publisher's feed

            A weekly conversation exploring China's economy and tech scene. Guests include a wide range of policy analysts, business professionals, journalists, and academics. A SupChina production, hosted by…