Lessons The Hard Way

Lessons The Hard Way

By Brian SuttonBusinessInvesting
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Lessons The Hard Way episodes

  • How Our First Deal Returned 68% While the S&P Returned 15 | Real Estate Deal Autopsy

    This was the deal that started everything.


    In June of 2017, Two Waters Capital purchased 124 units in Georgia for $7.05 million. It was our first acquisition. It had taken a year of underwriting, somewhere between 75 and 100 deals looked at and passed on, to get here. And when we finally found it, we found a long-term owner who had done nothing with the property for years, was extracting as much cash as possible, and had left an enormous value-add opportunity sitting there for someone willing to roll up their sleeves.


    In this episode of Lessons the Hard Way, Brian and Sam do the full deal autopsy on Park Walk. The numbers, the cap rate story, what they underwrote versus what actually happened, the emotional decision to sell early, and what this deal established as the permanent standard for every Two Waters Capital acquisition that followed.


    In this episode:

    • Park Walk: 124 units, $7.05M purchase, $56,900 per door in June 2017

    • The news in mid-2017: Brexit, Prince Harry and Meghan, fidget spinners, China capital controls — and why none of it mattered

    • 75 to 100 deals underwritten before this one was approved — what they were looking for

    • Low hanging fruit: what it means, what it looks like, and why this property qualified

    • Proforma rent growth of 3% versus actual rent growth of 10%

    • 10% cash-on-cash cash flow while they held it

    • Proforma exit at 9.5M at year seven, actual exit at 10.5M in two and a half years

    • A million over the seven-year goal in less than three years

    • 68% investor return versus the S&P 500's 15.3% in the same time period

    • Cap rate compressed from 7.5 to 6.5 at exit: what that means and why it matters

    • How to underwrite a flat cap rate and still produce outsized returns when the market moves

    • The emotional decision to sell early: it was the first deal, Brian did not want to let it go

    • Ring the bell: the Two Waters standard for when to exit a deal

    • From 15 investors to 500: what Park Walk built in terms of trust and loyalty

    • The fundamentals today look just like 2017: same uncertainty, same opportunity for those willing to move


    Subscribe for weekly episodes. New deal autopsies every week.


    Two Waters Capital: 2waterscapital.com


    #realestatepodcast #multifamilyinvesting #realestatecasestudy #dealautopsy #accreditedinvestor #commercialrealestate #realestateinvesting #realestatelessons


    0:00 Intro

    0:51 Welcome: tonight we are talking about Park Walk

    1:12 Setting the scene: what was happening in mid-2017

    1:39 Brexit, Meghan and Harry, fidget spinners, China capital controls

    2:25 Two Waters purchased Park Walk in June 2017 and sold in January 2020

    2:48 S&P 500 returned 15.3% in that same window

    3:07 Two Waters returned 68% in the same period

    3:40 The deal: 124 units, $7.05M, $56,900 per door

    4:16 Proforma underwrite: 3% rent growth

    4:47 Actual result: 10% rent growth

    5:27 How Two Waters underwrites conservatively and what that protects against

    6:26 Low hanging fruit: a long-term owner who had done nothing with the property

    6:51 The opportunity: roll up your sleeves, build a community, give residents an amazing place to live

    7:20 Why Park Walk was near and dear to Brian's heart from the start

    7:43 Proforma exit at 9.5M at year seven

    8:29 Actual exit: 10.5M in two and a half years, a million over goal

    9:06 68% investor return and the sense of relief on the first deal

    9:21 From 15 investors to 500: what this deal built

    10:03 Conservatively underwrote to be a million over, got there in less than three years

    10:22 Market timing and tailwinds: giving credit where it is due

    10:45 After four years on the sidelines, Two Waters is seeing these deals again now

    11:26 Today's pricing looks like 2017: the fundamentals have not changed

    12:38 The news is always bad: block it out and focus on the deal

    12:59 Cap rate story: proforma at 7.5, exited at 6.5 cap

    13:20 What a cap rate actually means: explained simply

    14:08 Why cap rate compression means stronger buyer demand

    14:34 Bought and underwrote to exit at flat cap rate: the conservative standard

    15:10 If cap rate compresses that is all gravy, not the plan

    15:48 With conservative underwriting a bad market still produces doubles and triples

    16:17 The fundamentals of how Two Waters underwrites have not changed in ten years

    16:36 Current pipeline: same entry cap, same exit cap, 1 to 3% rent growth, 5 to 7 years

    18:09 What else from Park Walk: the emotional decision to sell early

    18:52 10% cash-on-cash while they held it: the cash flow story

    19:12 Learning to let go even when you love the deal

    19:36 The standard Park Walk set: buy, add value, hit the goal, ring the bell, exit

    20:14 Legacy investors from Park Walk who are still with Two Waters today


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    21 min
  • 3 Yr Case Study: How a Real Estate Deal destroyed the S&P 500
    In October of 2017, Two Waters Capital purchased Reserve at Stockbridge — 88 units in Stockbridge, Georgia for $6.7 million. The news at the time was terrifying. Trump had just been inaugurated. Harvey Weinstein was all over every channel. A mass shooter had just killed 60 people in Las Vegas. Colin Kaepernick was kneeling for the national anthem and dividing the country.
    Brian and Sam bought anyway. And they blocked out the noise.
    In this episode of Lessons the Hard Way, Brian and Sam do a full deal autopsy on the Reserve at Stockbridge. They break down the proforma versus the actual numbers side by side — the rent growth they underwrote at 2.5% that came in at 28%, the seven-year exit goal they hit in three years, the NOI that climbed from a projected $450,000 to an actual $530,000, and the 40% investor return they produced in the same window that the S&P 500 returned 13.8%.
    Then they apply every lesson directly to the market right now.
    In this episode:
    • The Reserve at Stockbridge: 88 units, $6.7M purchase, $76,100 per door in 2017
    • The news cycle in mid-2017: Trump, Weinstein, Vegas, Kaepernick — and why none of it mattered
    • Why blocking out the noise and focusing on fundamentals is the only real strategy
    • Proforma vs. actual: underwrote 2.5% rent growth, achieved 28%
    • NOI proforma of $450K vs. actual of $530K — what drove the gap
    • Hit the seven-year exit target in three years — when to ring the bell and sell
    • $6.7M in, $8.5M out — the full return story including tax and insurance headwinds
    • 40% investor return vs. the S&P 500's 13.8% in the same period
    • The one thing that went wrong: a sump pump warranty that did not transfer
    • Always check if warranties transfer — the lesson that cost them and the fix going forward
    • The current market looks a lot like 2017: prices rolling back, conservative underwriting working
    • Two Waters took a four year hiatus and is back buying now — and why the timing feels right
    Subscribe for weekly episodes. New deal autopsies every week.
    Two Waters Capital: 2waterscapital.com
    #lessonsthehardway #twowaterscapital #realestatepodcast #multifamilyinvesting #realestatecasestudy #dealautopsy #accreditedinvestor #commercialrealestate #realestateinvesting #realestatelessons
    0:00 Cold open: there is always something in the news to be scared of
    0:32 Today's format: a case study, dissected piece by piece
    0:56 Setting the scene: what was happening in mid-2017
    1:22 Trump, Weinstein, Vegas, Kaepernick — the headlines when we bought
    1:50 Reserve at Stockbridge: October 2017 through March 2021
    2:23 S&P 500 returned 13.8% in that same window — here is what we did
    2:53 Two Waters produced a 40% investor return in the same period
    3:13 The deal: 88 units, $6.7M, $76,100 per door
    3:43 Proforma underwrite: 2.5% rent growth, $800 to $850
    4:08 The due diligence process: rent surveys, comps, market analysis
    4:29 Actual result: 28% rent growth, $800 to $1,000
    4:54 Why rents went so far beyond proforma — and what the team saw in real time
    5:43 We do not want to be the most expensive — we want to be the value leader
    6:16 Conservative underwriting plus great onsite execution equals outperformance
    6:41 The same noise is always there — block it out and focus on fundamentals
    7:34 What matters: asset quality, diligence, conservative rent growth, the right area
    8:07 NOI proforma $450K vs. actual $530K — the gap explained
    12:30 Bought for $6.7M, proforma exit $8.6M at year seven
    12:55 Actual exit: $8.5M — but in three years, not seven
    13:12 When to ring the bell: execute the plan, hit the number, sell
    13:34 Hit the seven-year goal in three years with tax and insurance headwinds
    14:05 Coming out of the GFC: why people were still hesitant in 2016 and 2017
    14:40 Taxes and insurance: flat then, rising then, now coming back down
    15:01 Why that tailwind matters for deals being underwritten right now
    15:22 NOI is the only thing you can control — maximize collections, minimize expenses
    16:32 NOI and cap rate are directly correlated with value — focus there
    17:00 What surprised Brian looking back: the sump pump and the warranty lesson
    18:26 Always check if warranties transfer — lesson learned the hard way
    18:49 This market feels like 2017: prices coming back, time to buy
    19:16 Two Waters is buying again — conservatively underwritten, the right assets
    Subscribe for weekly episodes. New deal autopsies every week.
    Two Waters Capital: 2waterscapital.com
    #lessonsthehardway #twowaterscapital #realestatepodcast #multifamilyinvesting #realestatecasestudy #dealautopsy #accreditedinvestor #commercialrealestate #realestateinvesting #realestatelessons
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    19 min
  • Winners Losers and Survivors: Which One Are You in This Recession?

    Chandler Brown's dad likes to say that recessions create three kinds of people. Winners. Losers. And survivors. And the survivors have the longest staying power of all.


    In this episode of Lessons the Hard Way, Sam sits down with Chandler Brown of GREA, a national multifamily brokerage platform with seven brokers in the Atlanta office, including Chandler's two brothers. Chandler started in 2009, the day after D-Day as he puts it, while his brother Taylor started in 2007 and landed on the beaches of Normandy. Between the family history, two decades of cycles, and some of the sharpest market frameworks in the conversation, this is one of the most content-dense episodes the show has produced.


    In this episode:

    • Winners, losers, and survivors: his dad's recession framework and why survivors win long-term

    • Normandy vs. D-Day: starting in 2007 vs. 2009 and what each brother walked into

    • Innovators and imitators: the buyer cycle that plays out the same way every recession

    • 100 no's to get a maybe: perseverance, product knowledge, and the mindset that carries you through

    • Every deal has to die three times before it gets made — and what to do each time it does

    • No deal is ever worth a relationship: the old school truth that still runs the business

    • The five stages of grief for a real estate cycle: denial, anger, negotiation, depression, acceptance — mapped onto brokers, then owners, then lenders, then equity in sequence

    • What Chandler looks for when underwriting in today's market

    • Equity is a coward and it runs from opportunity — why now is the time to move

    • Buying below basis without needing 2022 pricing to return

    • The frothy market alarm: how Chandler will know when to sharpen his lens again

    • Surround yourself with people smarter than you with different skill sets

    • People is still the answer — management, capital, and AI all come back to people


    Subscribe for weekly episodes. New deal autopsies and hard lessons every week.


    Connect with Chandler Brown and GREA: grea.com/team/chandler-brown


    Two Waters Capital: 2waterscapital.com


    #lessonsthehardway #twowaterscapital #realestatepodcast #multifamilyinvesting #realestatecycles #commercialrealestate #accreditedinvestor #distressedrealestate #chandlerbrown #realestatelessons


    0:00 Winners, losers, and survivors — his dad's recession framework

    1:02 Welcome: introducing Chandler Brown of GREA

    1:17 Dad started in 1975: forty years, forty-five years, seven recessions

    3:07 Three recessions Chandler has seen: GFC, COVID, 2022 to now

    3:35 Survivors have the longest staying power

    5:32 Normandy vs. D-Day: Taylor started in 2007, Chandler in 2009

    5:56 Innovators and imitators: the buyer cycle after every downturn

    7:24 First met Brian Sutton in 2015: the right timing and the right fundamentals

    7:50 100 no's to get a maybe: product knowledge and perseverance

    9:24 The suffering creates the tougher mindset

    11:09 Every deal has to die three times before it gets made

    12:08 Start from scratch when you have to — but keep going

    13:13 No deal is worth a relationship: the old school truth

    14:55 Being honest about where we are in the market

    15:28 The five stages of grief: denial, anger, negotiation, depression, acceptance

    15:52 Brokers felt it first, then owners, then lenders, then equity

    16:54 The best operators navigating legacy deals while buying new

    18:34 How to underwrite properties in today's market

    20:44 Walking distressed sellers through the grief process

    24:39 What Chandler loves about multifamily

    27:02 Reinventing yourself after the bad times: determination and patience

    29:12 Post-COVID unknowns and questioning everything with fresh eyes

    31:05 The frothy market alarm: how will you know when the music stops

    31:32 It starts with management data and what renters are telling you

    33:48 Equity is a coward — it runs from opportunity right now

    34:46 Buying deals with no rent growth and no appreciation — what that means for upside

    36:53 Two Waters goals: fund structure, conservative underwriting, buying below basis

    40:44 Closing: appreciation and what is ahead


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    42 min
  • I Am Stuck in a Deal. What Do I Do Next?

    I am stuck in a deal. What do I do next?


    That is the question driving this episode. And Brian Sutton is uniquely qualified to answer it because he is living it right now as a limited partner in a lot of deals that have gone sideways.


    In Episode 12 of Lessons the Hard Way, Brian and Sam sit down for one of the most honest and unexpected conversations the show has had. What started as a tactical breakdown of what to do when you are stuck in a bad real estate deal turned into something more important: a conversation about managing your state, stopping the self-blame, and figuring out how to get your mind unstuck before you can get your money unstuck.


    Two Waters Capital is on the other side as an operator. Brian personally is not. And he is not hiding it.


    In this episode:

    • The stages of grief for a bad real estate deal and how Brian went through all of them

    • Why the decisions you made were not bad decisions — the economy hit everyone

    • Stop beating yourself up: most of the operators you trusted are great people who got crushed

    • Why swearing off real estate and going to Bitcoin or mutual funds is the wrong answer

    • Sitting on your hands is not a strategy — every action and inaction has a consequence

    • The coin analogy: you have been squashed long enough, it is time to flip to the other side

    • How the most successful operators change their state fast and focus on opportunity

    • Staying in the eye of the hurricane: the question Brian and his wife ask each other during chaos

    • The people piling in last always get hurt worst — and why now is when to pay attention

    • Two Waters took a four year hiatus for a reason: they saw the overheating coming

    • What happens when you change your state and focus on what is in front of you instead


    Subscribe for weekly episodes. New deal autopsies and hard lessons every week.


    Two Waters Capital: 2waterscapital.com


    #lessonsthehardway #twowaterscapital #realestateinvesting #multifamilyinvesting #realestatelessons #stuckinareal #investormindset #accreditedinvestor #commercialrealestate #realestatepodcast


    0:00 Cold open: I am stuck in a deal, what do I do next

    0:54 Show intro and welcome back

    1:39 Brian's confession: stuck in a lot of deals as a limited partner

    2:28 Going through the stages of grief on a bad deal

    3:49 Those were not bad decisions — stop beating yourself up

    4:43 Why swearing off real estate is the wrong answer

    7:01 Sitting on your hands is not a strategy

    8:05 The most successful operators change their state fast

    9:33 You have been squashed by the coin — time to flip it

    11:41 Change your state first, then focus on opportunity

    12:58 We only have today: the only real solution is to move forward

    14:48 New strategies coming out of the downturn

    15:29 Getting investors on the other side of the coin

    16:24 People who pile in last get hurt worst — why now is different

    17:28 Two Waters took a four year hiatus and why

    18:24 Staying in the eye of the hurricane

    19:24 Focus on the massive opportunity ahead

    20:33 The magic carpet ride: it is never going to be flat

    21:19 What can we personally do to get our minds unstuck


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    23 min
  • How to Invest Your Retirement Account in Real Estate

    You can use your retirement account to invest in real estate. Most people have no idea.


    In this episode of Lessons the Hard Way, Sam sits down with Kelsey Dineen, 16-year veteran and senior member of the self-directed IRA and 1031 exchange team at Equity Trust, founded in 1974. Kelsey breaks down exactly how accredited investors are using retirement accounts to invest in real estate syndications, funds, and alternative assets in a tax-sheltered environment and why it is simpler than most people think.


    Two Waters Capital investors have used Equity Trust to invest in Two Waters syndications and funds. This is the inside conversation on how that actually works.


    In this episode:

    • What a self-directed IRA actually is and what it is not

    • The top three reasons sophisticated investors move down this road

    • Diversification beyond publicly traded assets into off-market opportunities

    • How to use retirement funds in a tax-sheltered environment to amplify wealth

    • The step-by-step setup process at Equity Trust and how long it actually takes

    • Penalties, taxes, and what investors need to know before making the move

    • How depreciation is affected when investing through a retirement account

    • What account types can be rolled in: 401K, Roth IRA, SEP IRA, and more

    • Can you use just a portion of your retirement account? Yes — here is how

    • Real success stories from investors who were reluctant and then moved forward

    • How to get in touch with Kelsey and get started with Equity Trust


    Ready to open an IRA? Online application link is https://apply.midlandtrust.com/Welcome


    Referral/Group Code to open your IRA for free ($50 setup fee waived) is "coverfullamount"


    Link for a FREE consultation call with Kelsey Dineen, CISP: https://calendly.com/k-dineen-trustetc/30min


    Two Waters Capital: 2waterscapital.com


    #lessonsthehardway #twowaterscapital #selfdirectedira #equitytrust #realestateinvesting #multifamilyinvesting #retirementinvesting #accreditedinvestor #realestatepodcast #taxsheltered


    0:00 Cold open: we don't vet, we don't do due diligence

    1:09 Welcome: introducing Kelsey Dineen of Equity Trust

    1:58 Kelsey's story and how she helps investors

    6:14 What kind of investors end up working with Equity Trust

    8:52 What a self-directed IRA is and what it is not

    10:33 The top three reasons investors move down this road

    12:22 Diversification: getting off publicly traded markets

    15:22 The three reasons revisited: diversification, tax sheltering, and structure

    18:01 Penalties and taxes: what investors need to know

    21:05 How depreciation works inside a retirement account

    23:27 What account types can be rolled in

    26:08 Can you use just a portion of your retirement account

    28:27 The setup process: step by step with Equity Trust

    30:41 Success stories from reluctant investors who moved forward

    32:52 What question did we not ask

    33:49 What Kelsey is excited about moving forward

    34:06 How to reach Kelsey and get started


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    36 min
  • I Just Came Off the Most Challenging Professional Quarter of My Life | Scott Williams

    Scott Williams finished his partner buyout at 11:59 PM on December 31st, 2025. He headed into 2026 with the biggest pipeline Aline Capital had ever built. Then the Iran conflict broke out and took the 52-week low in interest rates with it.


    In this episode of Lessons the Hard Way, Sam sits down with Scott Williams, founder and managing partner of Aline Capital, a commercial real estate advisory firm focused on investment sales and capital markets transactions across the Southeast. Scott has spent the last two years navigating a partner split, a compressed buyout, a frozen transaction market, and a macro environment that kept refusing to cooperate. He is still standing. And he has a lot to say about how.


    In this episode:

    • The partner split in Q4 2023 and what it meant to go through a tough market without that support

    • Completing a five year buyout in two years, entirely out of cash, while transactions fell 40%

    • Why survive till 25 never delivered and what 2026 actually looks like on the ground

    • We hit the 52 week low on Friday, February 27th. Iran broke out on Saturday the 28th.

    • The Gap and the Gain: why driven people should always measure backwards, not forward

    • The racehorse principle: treating yourself like a million dollar investment

    • Strategic Coach, Dan Sullivan, and planning to live to 137 as a business framework

    • The bridge loan debacle, the distressed fund opportunity, and why Brian Sutton had the right idea early

    • Tariffs, inflation, a possible rate hike in the futures market, and what Scott actually expects from here

    • Why uncertainty is the norm and the only way to underwrite deals right now is a range of outcomes with probability weighting

    • Human intuition vs. AI and what separates the best operators in a noise-heavy market


    Subscribe for weekly episodes. New deal autopsies and hard lessons every week.


    Connect with Scott Williams and Aline Capital: alinecapital.com


    Two Waters Capital: 2waterscapital.com


    #lessonsthehardway #twowaterscapital #realestatepodcast #realestateinvesting #multifamilyinvesting #capitalmarkets #commercialrealestate #accreditedinvestor #realestatelessons #scottywilliams


    0:00 Cold open: the most challenging professional quarter of my life

    1:05 Welcome: introducing Scott Williams of Aline Capital

    2:09 Setting the stage: 2015 to 2022, easy growth and the Covid faucet

    4:19 When things got hard: 2023, rate hikes, and the partner split

    5:57 Compressing a five year buyout into two years during a down market

    7:15 Survive till 25 never came: the rate cut that kept getting pushed

    8:23 Finally feeling relief, then Iran broke out on February 28th

    10:07 Managing through it: what Scott is doing differently right now

    12:05 Gratitude practice: pulling yourself out of the negativity deliberately

    13:49 Writing it down: three ways the day could go better than expected

    15:49 The Gap and the Gain: always measure backwards not forward

    17:49 Swimming ten miles and looking back at how far you have come

    18:35 The physical game: workouts as a non-negotiable in hard seasons

    20:11 The racehorse principle: treat yourself like a million dollar investment

    21:24 Planning to live to 137: the time extender framework from Dan Sullivan

    22:32 Embrace the suck: two years is a blip when you zoom out far enough

    24:11 Back to the market: the bridge loan debacle and where distress is headed

    25:38 Brian Sutton, Two Waters, and the distressed fund thesis

    28:11 Where did all the distress go? The extend and pretend explanation

    30:00 Tariffs, Iran, and the inflation shock hitting 2026

    36:39 The bond market as the smartest money in the room

    37:25 CPI, rate cuts baked out, and a rate hike appearing in the futures market

    38:35 Scott's outlook: what needs to happen for 20 to 30 basis points to come out of the curve

    40:37 Don't predicate a deal on things getting easier: underwrite what is in front of you

    42:17 Human intuition vs. AI in an uncertain market

    43:30 How to reach Scott Williams and Aline Capital


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    0 min
  • ”I Just Came Off the Most Challenging Professional Quarter of My Life” | Scott Williams

    Scott Williams finished his partner buyout at 11:59 PM on December 31st, 2025. He headed into 2026 with the biggest pipeline Aline Capital had ever built. Then the Iran conflict broke out and took the 52-week low in interest rates with it.


    In this episode of Lessons the Hard Way, Sam sits down with Scott Williams, founder and managing partner of Aline Capital, a commercial real estate advisory firm focused on investment sales and capital markets transactions across the Southeast. Scott has spent the last two years navigating a partner split, a compressed buyout, a frozen transaction market, and a macro environment that kept refusing to cooperate. He is still standing. And he has a lot to say about how.


    In this episode:

    • The partner split in Q4 2023 and what it meant to go through a tough market without that support

    • Completing a five year buyout in two years, entirely out of cash, while transactions fell 40%

    • Why survive till 25 never delivered and what 2026 actually looks like on the ground

    • We hit the 52 week low on Friday, February 27th. Iran broke out on Saturday the 28th.

    • The Gap and the Gain: why driven people should always measure backwards, not forward

    • The racehorse principle: treating yourself like a million dollar investment

    • Strategic Coach, Dan Sullivan, and planning to live to 137 as a business framework

    • The bridge loan debacle, the distressed fund opportunity, and why Brian Sutton had the right idea early

    • Tariffs, inflation, a possible rate hike in the futures market, and what Scott actually expects from here

    • Why uncertainty is the norm and the only way to underwrite deals right now is a range of outcomes with probability weighting

    • Human intuition vs. AI and what separates the best operators in a noise-heavy market


    Subscribe for weekly episodes. New deal autopsies and hard lessons every week.


    Connect with Scott Williams and Aline Capital: alinecapital.com


    Two Waters Capital: 2waterscapital.com


    #lessonsthehardway #twowaterscapital #realestatepodcast #realestateinvesting #multifamilyinvesting #capitalmarkets #commercialrealestate #accreditedinvestor #realestatelessons #scottywilliams


    0:00 Cold open: the most challenging professional quarter of my life

    1:05 Welcome: introducing Scott Williams of Aline Capital

    2:09 Setting the stage: 2015 to 2022, easy growth and the Covid faucet

    4:19 When things got hard: 2023, rate hikes, and the partner split

    5:57 Compressing a five year buyout into two years during a down market

    7:15 Survive till 25 never came: the rate cut that kept getting pushed

    8:23 Finally feeling relief, then Iran broke out on February 28th

    10:07 Managing through it: what Scott is doing differently right now

    12:05 Gratitude practice: pulling yourself out of the negativity deliberately

    13:49 Writing it down: three ways the day could go better than expected

    15:49 The Gap and the Gain: always measure backwards not forward

    17:49 Swimming ten miles and looking back at how far you have come

    18:35 The physical game: workouts as a non-negotiable in hard seasons

    20:11 The racehorse principle: treat yourself like a million dollar investment

    21:24 Planning to live to 137: the time extender framework from Dan Sullivan

    22:32 Embrace the suck: two years is a blip when you zoom out far enough

    24:11 Back to the market: the bridge loan debacle and where distress is headed

    25:38 Brian Sutton, Two Waters, and the distressed fund thesis

    28:11 Where did all the distress go? The extend and pretend explanation

    30:00 Tariffs, Iran, and the inflation shock hitting 2026

    36:39 The bond market as the smartest money in the room

    37:25 CPI, rate cuts baked out, and a rate hike appearing in the futures market

    38:35 Scott's outlook: what needs to happen for 20 to 30 basis points to come out of the curve

    40:37 Don't predicate a deal on things getting easier: underwrite what is in front of you

    42:17 Human intuition vs. AI in an uncertain market

    43:30 How to reach Scott Williams and Aline Capital


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    45 min
  • The Deal From Hell and Why I Would Do It All Over Again

    Bad timing. Wrong loan product. A market that turned upside down mid-execution. And somehow, this became Brian Sutton's favorite deal.

     

    In Episode 9 of Lessons the Hard Way, Brian sits down with co-host Sam Chillingworth to break down a Birmingham, Alabama multifamily deal that had everything going against it: bought in 2021 at near-peak pricing, repositioned from student housing to conventional during Covid-era supply chain chaos, sitting on a bridge loan while the Fed raised rates to the moon, and still sold at a profit. Small profit, but a profit.

     

    What made it Brian's favorite was not the return. It was the people who stayed.

     

    In this episode:

    • The Birmingham deal: bought in 2021, repositioned student housing near UAB to conventional
    • Why student housing just far enough from campus fails and what to do about it
    • Bridge loans in a rising rate environment: the mistake and the lesson
    • How the Fed rate hikes changed the deal mid-repositioning and why nobody saw it coming
    • Fighting through Covid supply chain delays, material shortages, and eviction moratoriums
    • What happens when you reset investor expectations mid-deal and do it with integrity
    • Everybody got their money back and made a little: what a win looks like in a tough market
    • Pride vs. favorite: why the deal you are most proud of is not always the most profitable
    • The three types of people in a crisis: those who stick, those who leave, those who make it worse
    • Why neighborhood quality was the single factor that separated the deals they lost from the deals they saved
    • Strong neighborhoods attract more buyers at exit: the thesis that proved itself under pressure
    • The magic carpet ride ahead: why Brian is more bullish now than ever
    • Non-negotiables: who to cut out and who to run toward when times get hard
    •  

      Subscribe for weekly episodes. New deal autopsies and hard lessons every week.

       

      🔗 Two Waters Capital: 2waterscapital.com

       

      real estate deal autopsy | Birmingham Alabama multifamily | student housing repositioning | bridge loan real estate | how to recover a bad real estate deal | multifamily investing podcast | accredited investor education | real estate partner relationships | deal gone wrong recovery | Lessons the Hard Way podcast

       

      0:00 Cold open

      0:35 Show intro

      0:57 Welcome back

      1:18 What full cycle means: from acquisition to disposition

      2:09 The 5 to 7 year hold

      3:03 Leave the meat on the bone

      3:41 The setup: not my favorite going through it, actually a painful experience

      4:04 Birmingham, Alabama: bought in 2021, near-peak pricing, post-Covid skyrocket

      5:13 Why Birmingham

      5:38 Student housing near two universities

      6:32 The thesis: reposition to conventional and attract grad students and families

      7:15 Bridge loan in 2021

      7:33 The Fed raises rates: what nobody could have predicted happening mid-deal

      7:50 The conversion process: Covid delays, materials, staffing, eviction moratorium

      8:34 Fought through it: rehab, painting, upgrades, repositioning, and sold within the bridge window

      9:02 The right investor partners: who you need when the market stops cooperating

      9:30 No investment has zero risk: even money under your mattress has a rat problem

      9:54 Investors stayed supportive: hey, we understand the market is not going your way

      10:21 Why this is his favorite: struggle and strife can reshape and reform you

      10:53 The workout analogy: you only grow muscle when you strain it a little

      11:45 Pressure that does not break you: what this deal did to Two Waters as a team

      12:14 Resetting investor expectations mid-deal: the honest conversation that saved the relationship

      12:58 Everybody got their money back and made a little: what success looks like under pressure

      13:19 New OREO deal incoming: the bank came back, same market, new opportunity

      13:43 Relationships with banks:

      14:26 Buy better properties in better areas

      15:14 Neighborhood quality as the key variable

      15:37 Better neighborhoods attract more buyers: why it mattered at exit

      16:02 Not my favorite deal, but the one I am most proud of: the distinction

      16:24 Pride is forged through going through tough things: the real takeaway

      17:08 Find partners you can trust: it is always about the people

      17:28 The magic carpet ride ahead

      18:19 Forged by fire

      18:38 Good times vs. tough times: the high fives are easy, the trenches reveal the truth

      19:07 Three types of people in a crisis: those who stick, those who leave, those who create more trouble

      19:48 Notice all three: the people who stayed are the ones to keep

      20:12 Move away from the people who made things worse

      21:08 What are your non-negotiables

      21:27 Being a yes person: the lesson this downturn taught Brian about saying no

      22:05 The right partners make you want to keep going

      22:48 Closing

       

      #lessonsthehardway#twowaterscapital#realestatepodcast#realestateinvesting#multifamilyinvesting#dealautopsy#valueaddrealestate#accreditedinvestor#realestaterecovery#realestatelessons

       

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      23 min
    • Retire and Expire: The Myth of Retirement Nobody Talks About

      Brian Sutton could walk away from Two Waters Capital tomorrow. He does not have to work. He could golf and drive his boat every single day for the rest of his life.


      He would be bored out of his mind within a month.


      In this episode of Lessons the Hard Way, Brian sits down with co-host Sam Chillingworth to challenge one of the most deeply held beliefs in personal finance: that retirement is the goal. Brian argues it is not. What people actually want is not retirement — it is freedom. The freedom to choose. The freedom to walk away from something you hate. The freedom to build something meaningful.


      And real estate is how he got there.


      In this episode:

      • Why Brian could retire today but would never want to

      • The "retire and expire" problem: why men who retire early often die early

      • What you actually want is not retirement — you want a second stream of income and freedom of choice

      • Tony Robbins on the basic human need for significance: what happens when retirement robs you of it

      • The common denominator problem: if every job is miserable, it might be a you issue

      • Money cannot make you happy, but not having it can sure make you unhappy — Brian's dad's rule

      • Why spending money does not fulfill Brian and what actually does

      • Two Waters Capital's mission: giving investors the financial security to make better choices

      • What Brian would say to anyone stuck in a job they hate right now

      • Stop spending $20,000 on real estate education: the free path to learning it yourself

      • Curiosity, confidence, and one foot in front of the other: the only formula you need


      Subscribe for weekly episodes. New deal autopsies and hard lessons every week.


      🔗 Two Waters Capital: 2waterscapital.com


      0:00 Cold open

      0:36 Show intro: hard lessons most people keep private

      0:57 Welcome back

      1:15 The myth of retirement: let's dig in

      1:34 Brian's confession

      2:18 Could shut down Two Waters, golf every day, drive the boat: still would not do it

      2:34 For some people retirement is an escape from a job they hate

      3:10 The real argument

      3:32 What you actually want

      3:53 People who retired and came back to work

      4:17 Retire and expire

      4:55 Life is about contribution and connection

      5:16 Two Waters investors who retired and are back working anyway

      5:48 Tony Robbins on basic human needs

      6:11 Who am I now

      6:39 The empowerment of knowing you can walk away even if you do not

      7:02 Job to job to job: if every job is miserable, look in the mirror

      7:24 The common denominator

      7:48 The secret sauce of life: contribution, passion, and gusto

      8:13 What Brian is passionate about: people and building great communities

      8:51 Success is a team sport: surrounding yourself with the right people

      9:10 Passion number two: giving investors the financial security to make better choices

      9:37 When he lost his job: real estate saved his family and gave him choices

      10:02 Retire rhymes with expire: freedom and choice are the real goals

      10:47 Brian is not flashy: spending money does not make him happy, building does

      11:26 The mission: give people financial security to make better choices in life

      11:59 Money cannot make you happy but not having it can make you unhappy: Brian's dad's rule

      12:20 Money is a tool: be smart with it and it gives you freedom

      13:03 Freedom of choice: what financial security actually buys you

      13:20 To the person stuck in a job they hate: here is what Brian would say

      14:05 Stay positive, stay curious, find people who did what you want to do

      14:38 You do not need to spend $20,000 to learn real estate: start for free

      14:59 Stop watching TV and get curious about how other people created income streams

      15:19 Brian's secret sauce: eternally curious, loves to learn, studies successful people

      15:42 Once you have the education, get out of your own way and take action

      16:26 I am not a risk taker: I just educated myself until I felt confident enough to move

      17:33 Two Waters moving forward: autonomous growth and what Brian is excited about

      18:02 You have it in you: the power to make changes is already there

      18:32 Do not quit your job tomorrow: the right way to make the transition

      19:16 The retirement carrot: is it keeping you miserable on purpose?

      19:41 Fill your life with choices, connections, and meaningful impact instead

      20:14 Final advice: stop chasing retirement, start building financial security and freedom

      21:03 Closing: thanks and see you next week


      retire and expire | you do not want to retire | financial freedom vs retirement | real estate passive income | how to escape your job | second stream of income | multifamily investing podcast | accredited investor education | Brian Sutton Two Waters Capital | Lessons the Hard Way podcast


      #lessonsthehardway

      #twowaterscapital

      #realestatepodcast

      #financialfreedom

      #retirementmyth

      #passiveincome

      #realestateinvesting

      #multifamilyinvesting

      #accreditedinvestor

      #wealthbuilding


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      22 min
    • We Are Buying at 2018 Prices in 2026 | The Opportunity Nobody Is Talking About

      Brian Sutton recently sat down with The Real Estate Pros Show for a wide-ranging conversation about adversity, real estate cycles, and why Two Waters Capital believes right now is one of the best buying opportunities in nearly a decade.


      We are sharing this replay on the Lessons the Hard Way channel because the message is one every investor and operator needs to hear right now.


      In this conversation, Brian shares:

      • A short sale deal Two Waters is closing right now: buying in 2026 at 2018 pricing per door

      • What it means to turn the clock back 8 years on asset pricing and why that matters

      • Failure as fertilizer: how the messy, smelly hard times are the nutrients that grow you

      • Why he wanted to clam up and go into his shell after the losses — and why he chose not to

      • Count it all joy: the Bible verse that reframes every trial as an opportunity

      • Battle scars vs. battle wounds: the difference between people who grow and people who get stuck

      • Why it is time to be bullish in real estate right now

      • The 7-point deal filter Two Waters gives away free to anyone who texts DEAL to 404-500-6876

      • What Brian believes is the human condition at its best: contribute, connect, touch people's lives


      Special thanks to the Real Estate Pros Show for having Brian on. Go check out their channel here:

      @RealEstateProsShow


      Want to connect with Two Waters Capital directly?

      Text DEAL to 404-500-6876 for the free 7-point deal filter

      Website: 2waterscapital.com


      Subscribe to Lessons the Hard Way for weekly episodes. New deal autopsies and hard lessons every week.


      real estate investing 2026 | distressed real estate opportunity | short sale real estate | multifamily investing podcast | accredited investor education | real estate mindset | adversity and investing | Brian Sutton Two Waters Capital | real estate market 2026 | Lessons the Hard Way podcast


      #lessonsthehardway

      #twowaterscapital

      #realestatepodcast

      #realestateinvesting

      #distressedrealestate

      #multifamilyinvesting

      #accreditedinvestor

      #realestatemindsest

      #realestateopportunity

      #realestateprospodcast


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      14 min

    About Lessons The Hard Way

    From the publisher's feed

    Welcome to Lessons the Hard Way: Real Estate Investing and Life Under Pressure.