With the polls showing a spike in support for the Liberals, speculation has also spiked about an early election. What do the polls say about whether Mark Carney’s Liberals or Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives should want to head back on the campaign trail in 2026?

This week on The Numbers, we break down the state of the federal race and discuss whether or not Carney’s bump is an extension of his honeymoon or an entirely new thing. We also chat about the round of byelections that we can expect in the next few months and what they mean for both federal and Ontario politics. Plus, a new poll on Alberta independence shows some stark divides in the province that complicate things for Danielle Smith (and Poilievre).

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