After the New Democrats suffered a stinging rebuke in the last federal election, there are many questions surrounding where the party goes from here — and who could lead it.

On this week’s episode of The Numbers, we discuss the troubled state of the NDP and a new poll that suggests few Canadians know much about any of the potential leadership contenders. We also chat about what the polls say about Pierre Poilievre’s current standing within the Conservative Party, as well as an upcoming provincial byelection in Quebec. Plus, Philippe has a quiz on past NDP leadership contests.

If you missed it last week, we played a round of Over/Unders on the federal byelection in Battle River–Crowfoot. You can listen to this members-only episode by joining our Patreon here.

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The Alberta New Democrats held their two seats in Edmonton and the United Conservatives won their seat in the rural south of the province. Naheed Nenshi now has a seat in the legislature and Danielle Smith has kept the separatists at bay. But there are some conflicting signals in the results. Are there reasons for Smith to be concerned over these numbers?

And what could they mean for Pierre Poilievre’s own quest for a seat in rural Alberta?

We break down the results of the Alberta byelections in this week’s episode of The Numbers. We also discuss the deep hole Quebec’s François Legault finds himself in and Philippe has another quiz (and a tough one) on the results of the 2025 federal election.

(We are planning to take a break for Canada Day, but our next episode for members of our Patreon should be out at the end of next week.)

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The post-election polling hasn’t been kind to Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives. Is it just a blip or something the Conservatives should start worrying about?

This week on The Numbers, we take a look at what the federal polls say about Poilievre’s future. We also get a report from Philippe’s trip to Quebec City for the Quebec Liberal leadership that was won by Pablo Rodriguez and we look at provincial polling numbers from coast-to-coast with new premier approval ratings data and voting intentions results from across the country.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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Mark Carney has been prime minister for three months and his honeymoon appears to be holding as new polls show his own personal numbers continue to sparkle — even if the Liberals aren’t much further ahead in voting intentions than they were in April’s election. How long can these good vibes last?

We break down the latest federal polls on this week’s episode of The Numbers. Plus, we have some new data out of Alberta and Ontario and a leadership contest (finally) coming to a close in Quebec. Will presumed front runner Pablo Rodriguez be the next Quebec Liberal leader, or could an upset be in the making at this weekend’s convention in Quebec City?

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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A new poll suggests that not only is Ontario’s Doug Ford the most well-known provincial premier in the country, he is also the most popular in the country as a whole. Does that make Doug Ford Canada’s premiere premier?

This week on The Numbers, we dig into some polling by Pollara on how Canadians view their premier and the premiers of other provinces. We also delve into some numbers from Janet Brown Opinion Research on Albertans’ voting intentions, impressions of Danielle Smith and Naheed Nenshi and where the province stands on independence, as well as a trio of key provincial byelections being held on June 23.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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King Charles III kicked off a new parliamentary session on Tuesday by reading the government’s speech from the throne, the first time the monarch has done so since 1977. Does this herald a newfound enthusiasm for the Crown in Canada, or would Canadians prefer to chuck Charles and become a republic?

On this episode of The Numbers, we break down a series of polls that gauge Canadians’ opinions of the monarchy. We also delve into more data on Alberta sovereignty, some new federal numbers and discuss just what the NDP thought it was doing in the final days of the campaign as it tried to save Jagmeet Singh’s seat.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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Prime Minister Mark Carney named his new cabinet last week. Do his choices suggest some electoral considerations came into play on who did and didn’t made the cut — and does a cabinet minister make a difference at the ballot box? Plus, Pierre Poilievre’s byelection in Battle River–Crowfoot looms, as does the prickly subject of Alberta separation.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss some of these new developments in federal politics. We also delve into new polling numbers in Ontario and Alberta, as well as in Quebec where the Parti Québécois is holding a wide lead. Could Pablo Rodriguez, if he wins the Quebec Liberal leadership, shake things up? And how could a referendum on Alberta independence impact that debate in Quebec?

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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With referendums on separation a real possibility in the not-so-distant future, is there a chance that Alberta and/or Saskatchewan could vote to leave the country? We take a look at some of the latest polling numbers on the subject on this episode of The Numbers.

Plus, both the Conservatives and New Democrats have named some interim leaders (Andrew Scheer as head of the opposition until Pierre Poilievre gets into the House, and Don Davies as interim NDP leader until his replacement is named). What can we read into these choices? And does it matter that the judicial recount in Terrebonne has pushed the Liberals one seat closer to an outright majority?

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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Mark Carney’s Liberals secured a big minority government in last week’s election, but not the majority they were hoping for. Is 169 seats, three short of the majority threshold, as good as a majority in the current context?

On this episode of The Numbers, we debate how long it will be before we’re heading to the polls once again. We also discuss some post-election polling that hints at how different demographics voted and we chat about Pierre Poilievre’s future in Battle River–Crowfoot and beyond. Plus, The Quiz is back!

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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It was a remarkable end to an unprecedented few months in Canadian politics. Mark Carney’s Liberals came up just short of a majority with 169 seats, while the Conservatives won 144 seats but did not see their leader, Pierre Poilievre, win his. The New Democrats put up their worst performance in all of their history and saw leader Jagmeet Singh go down to defeat as well. But with seven seats, the NDP still holds the balance of power — as does Yves-François Blanchet and the Bloc Québécois.

So, there are lots of numbers to go into on this episode of The Numbers. How did the polls perform? How did our projections do? And what results surprised us the most?

Thanks for all of your support during this campaign! We’re going to go back to a weekly schedule of episodes, with bonus episodes for members of our Patreon. Become a member to continue supporting this podcast and to get access to those episodes as well as to our lively Discord server. Join here!

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