King Charles III kicked off a new parliamentary session on Tuesday by reading the government’s speech from the throne, the first time the monarch has done so since 1977. Does this herald a newfound enthusiasm for the Crown in Canada, or would Canadians prefer to chuck Charles and become a republic?

On this episode of The Numbers, we break down a series of polls that gauge Canadians’ opinions of the monarchy. We also delve into more data on Alberta sovereignty, some new federal numbers and discuss just what the NDP thought it was doing in the final days of the campaign as it tried to save Jagmeet Singh’s seat.

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Prime Minister Mark Carney named his new cabinet last week. Do his choices suggest some electoral considerations came into play on who did and didn’t made the cut — and does a cabinet minister make a difference at the ballot box? Plus, Pierre Poilievre’s byelection in Battle River–Crowfoot looms, as does the prickly subject of Alberta separation.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss some of these new developments in federal politics. We also delve into new polling numbers in Ontario and Alberta, as well as in Quebec where the Parti Québécois is holding a wide lead. Could Pablo Rodriguez, if he wins the Quebec Liberal leadership, shake things up? And how could a referendum on Alberta independence impact that debate in Quebec?

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With referendums on separation a real possibility in the not-so-distant future, is there a chance that Alberta and/or Saskatchewan could vote to leave the country? We take a look at some of the latest polling numbers on the subject on this episode of The Numbers.

Plus, both the Conservatives and New Democrats have named some interim leaders (Andrew Scheer as head of the opposition until Pierre Poilievre gets into the House, and Don Davies as interim NDP leader until his replacement is named). What can we read into these choices? And does it matter that the judicial recount in Terrebonne has pushed the Liberals one seat closer to an outright majority?

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Mark Carney’s Liberals secured a big minority government in last week’s election, but not the majority they were hoping for. Is 169 seats, three short of the majority threshold, as good as a majority in the current context?

On this episode of The Numbers, we debate how long it will be before we’re heading to the polls once again. We also discuss some post-election polling that hints at how different demographics voted and we chat about Pierre Poilievre’s future in Battle River–Crowfoot and beyond. Plus, The Quiz is back!

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It was a remarkable end to an unprecedented few months in Canadian politics. Mark Carney’s Liberals came up just short of a majority with 169 seats, while the Conservatives won 144 seats but did not see their leader, Pierre Poilievre, win his. The New Democrats put up their worst performance in all of their history and saw leader Jagmeet Singh go down to defeat as well. But with seven seats, the NDP still holds the balance of power — as does Yves-François Blanchet and the Bloc Québécois.

So, there are lots of numbers to go into on this episode of The Numbers. How did the polls perform? How did our projections do? And what results surprised us the most?

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Mark Carney’s Liberals still hold a lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives in our projections with only days to go before this campaign is all over. Will anything change between now and Monday?

On this episode of The Numbers, we go over our projections and discuss whether or not the polls are really tightening. We then take a look at where each party stands and assess what would be a good or bad night for each of them. Can Jagmeet Singh’s NDP retain official party status? Will Yves-François Blanchet and the Bloc Québécois hold the balance of power? Can the Greens avoid disaster?

And, of course, who will win the election?

Thanks for all of your support during this campaign! We’ll have one more final episode on Saturday for members of our Patreon. You can listen to that episode and join our Discord by becoming a member of our Patreon.

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We’re in the final week of this federal election campaign and the polls are still showing that Mark Carney’s Liberals remain the heavy favourites against Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. But if the Liberals are in majority territory today, just how much of a cushion do they really have?

This week on The Numbers, we delve into the national polling numbers and our (somewhat differing) projections. We also take a look at some local polling in the Greater Toronto Area and on Vancouver Island.

Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

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The polls suggest the race could be getting closer between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. But the Liberals are still way ahead in Quebec. Did last night’s French-language leaders’ debate change that?

On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss what happened during the debate and whether it’ll have any impact on the polls. We also chat about what appears to be a tightening race and where our projections disagree.

Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

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After a period of broad consensus, there’s been a few divergences in the polls. Are we seeing real movement between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, or just some normal fluctuations between random surveys? We try to make sense of some of the numbers.

Plus, we discuss our projections (is Saskatchewan really in play?) and chat about how Carney and Poilievre did on the much-watched Radio-Canada program, Tout le monde en parle.

Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

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You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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At Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative rally in Brampton on Wednesday, some supporters wore sweaters and held banners asking a simple question: “do you believe the polls?”

Yes. Yes, we do.

On this episode of The Numbers, we break down what the polls are showing and explain why every indicator suggests not only that Mark Carney’s Liberals are leading, but that they are in a very good position to win a majority government.

This election isn’t over, and in that sense having a healthy doubt about the polls is fine. And polls are never 100% accurate. But if anyone is thinking these polls are completely bogus snapshots of where things are today — well, we have some thoughts about that.

Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

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You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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