The polls suggest the race could be getting closer between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. But the Liberals are still way ahead in Quebec. Did last night’s French-language leaders’ debate change that?

On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss what happened during the debate and whether it’ll have any impact on the polls. We also chat about what appears to be a tightening race and where our projections disagree.

Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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After a period of broad consensus, there’s been a few divergences in the polls. Are we seeing real movement between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, or just some normal fluctuations between random surveys? We try to make sense of some of the numbers.

Plus, we discuss our projections (is Saskatchewan really in play?) and chat about how Carney and Poilievre did on the much-watched Radio-Canada program, Tout le monde en parle.

Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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At Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative rally in Brampton on Wednesday, some supporters wore sweaters and held banners asking a simple question: “do you believe the polls?”

Yes. Yes, we do.

On this episode of The Numbers, we break down what the polls are showing and explain why every indicator suggests not only that Mark Carney’s Liberals are leading, but that they are in a very good position to win a majority government.

This election isn’t over, and in that sense having a healthy doubt about the polls is fine. And polls are never 100% accurate. But if anyone is thinking these polls are completely bogus snapshots of where things are today — well, we have some thoughts about that.

Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Do we have a polling controversy on our hands? Maybe! Over the last few days, we’ve seen a few polls published that portray some starkly different public opinion environments. Are Mark Carney’s Liberals leading by double-digits, or are Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives keeping them to a close race? Or is it somewhere in between?

On this episode of The Numbers, we try to make some sense of the diverging poll numbers. We also take a deep dive into some B.C. regional polling numbers and look at a pair of ridings that could be worth watching on election night. Does the NDP actually have a chance to win a second seat in Quebec?

Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

While the consensus in the polls pretty clearly points to an advantage for Mark Carney’s Liberals over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, what should we make of those individual surveys that show the race to be far closer — perhaps even tied? And how should we interpret the polls that show the Liberals surging in regions they haven’t won in decades?

In this episode of The Numbers, we try to make some sense of the numbers. We also look at some polls from Léger that have surprising regional breakdowns of support within Ontario and British Columbia.

Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It’s clear enough that Mark Carney’s Liberals would be the favourites to win this election if it were held today. But as support for the party in parts of the country grows to levels not seen in decades, just where those Liberal seat gains will happen is tough to predict.

On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss how the electoral map is shifting. We also chat about whether or not Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats can beat expectations and if there are any signs that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives can turn things around.

Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

Did you miss our special episode on Saturday? Patreon members can listen to it here.

https://www.patreon.com/posts/week-1-goes-to-125451769

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Early campaign polls show that the New Democrats under Jagmeet Singh are in freefall, propelling Mark Carney’s Liberals to new highs in support. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are holding steady, but that just means they are losing ground as the Liberals keep moving ahead.

On this episode of The Numbers, Philippe J. Fournier and I discuss what the latest polling numbers say about how this campaign is unfolding. Can the NDP save any of its seats? Have the Liberals run into trouble in Quebec? And will the Conservatives be able to turn things around?

Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The writ has dropped and the campaign buses are rolling. It also means the pollsters are polling — and, as hard as their numbers are to believe after what has been an extraordinary few months, you better believe them. The Liberal edge is real.

But can it be sustained for the next five weeks? On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss whether or not Mark Carney’s Liberals have hit their ceiling and just how solid their support really is. We also break down the difficult situation Jagmeet Singh and the New Democrats find themselves in.

Starting this week and going straight through to the end of the campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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A flurry of polls conducted just ahead of Sunday’s expected writ drop show the Liberals in the lead — and potentially in majority territory. Have the Liberals really gone from catastrophic to the favourites in a matter of weeks?

On this episode of The Numbers, we break down the polls showing Mark Carney’s Liberals to be ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and try to make sense of what is happening. We also discuss results from two provincial byelections held in Quebec and Manitoba this week.

Starting next week straight through to the end of the campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Carney won the Liberal leadership race in emphatic fashion on Sunday and an election call seems only days away.

This week on The Numbers, we dissect the results of the Liberal leadership contest and what the latest polls are saying about Carney’s chances against Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. Plus, we take a look at some new provincial numbers out of Quebec and British Columbia.

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.