Following Prime Minister Mark Carney’s speech at Davos last week, the polls appear to have shifted in his favour — and against that of Pierre Poilievre. With the House of Commons now sitting again, the year’s political season just getting started and Poilievre only a few days away from his leadership review in Calgary, what do these numbers mean for where things go from here on the federal political scene?

We break it all down on this week’s episode of The Numbers. We also take a look at some new polls coming out of the provincial level in Ontario, Quebec and Alberta. Where do voters stand on the idea of Alberta independence?

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With less than two weeks to go before Pierre Poilievre’s leadership review in Calgary, a new poll shows a spike in his negative ratings to a new high. Is it a one-off blip or a sign of a deeper problem for the Conservative leader?

We break down the federal polls on this week’s episode of The Numbers. We also discuss François Legault’s bombshell resignation last week and how it shuffles the deck ahead of Quebec’s provincial election in October.

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Chrystia Freeland, the former cabinet minister and Liberal leadership contestant whose resignation letter was the final nail in the coffin of Justin Trudeau’s prime ministership, finally vacated her seat in the House of Commons last week. As Mark Carney tries to find his way to the magic number of 172 seats needed for a majority government, he now has one more to fill.

And it likely won’t be the last.

In the first episode of 2026 of The Numbers, we take a look at the one byelection we know will happen soon and the other potential seats that could be vacated in the coming weeks or months. We also discuss the latest federal polling numbers as well as the state of the B.C. Conservative, Quebec Liberal and Ontario Liberal leadership races. Plus, there’s a new poll out of Nova Scotia.

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After tackling the year in federal politics to come, we now turn our attentions to the provincial scenes.

In this second part of our Over/Under Contest, we set our lines for the Quebec election in October. We also make our predictions for potential other provincial elections, premier resignations, leadership race outcomes and where party leaders might end the year in the polls.

Thanks for all of your support for the podcast throughout 2025 and we wish you all the best in 2026!

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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After the beating our predictions took in 2025, we’ve lifted ourselves up, dusted ourselves off and are once again ready to try to predict the political year to come.

Yes, it’s time for our annual Over/Under Contest, the fifth year in a row that we go head-to-head to see who has the better crystal ball for 2026. What score will Pierre Poilievre get in his leadership review? When will Mark Carney’s polling numbers begin to drop — if at all? Will there be any more floor-crossers? And, of course, will there be an election in the year to come?

We’re splitting up the 2026 Over/Under Contest into two parts. Today, we’re reviewing how we did in 2025 (badly) before we set our sights on the year ahead of us in federal politics. Next week, we’ll place our lines and make our predictions for the provincial political scene.

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One year ago today, Chrystia Freeland resigned from Justin Trudeau’s cabinet and kicked off a series of events that led to the Liberals winning re-election under new leader Mark Carney in April’s federal election. Also one year ago today, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives were enjoying a 20+ point lead in the polls. Now, the beleaguered Conservative leader has lost his second MP to the Liberals in little more than a month.

It’s been quite a roller-coaster year.

On this week’s episode of The Numbers, we discuss the defection of Markham–Unionville MP Michael Ma to the Liberals and what it means for Poilievre’s leadership of the Conservative Party. We also play a game of Election Draft, drafting what we think are the most likely unscheduled elections to take place in 2026.

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After months of caucus departures, expulsions and internal party turmoil, John Rustad finally resigned as leader of the B.C. Conservatives last week. Could that shake-up in the Conservative Party have reverberations that’ll go far beyond the provincial political scene in Victoria?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss what just happened in British Columbia and whether we might see any federal politicians run for the B.C. Conservative leadership — potentially opening up some fascinating byelections. We also chat about the latest federal polls say about Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre, as well as new numbers out of every province, including in Quebec where there has been a big swing in public opinion and in Prince Edward Island where last night’s byelection almost resulted in a flip.

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Polls suggest that a majority of Canadians (including British Columbians), support building a new pipeline from Alberta to the north coast of B.C. But after the resignation of Steven Guilbeault, a key minister for the Liberals in Quebec, and indications that the party’s electoral base in B.C. and elsewhere has mixed views about a new pipeline, could Mark Carney’s voter coalition be cracking — or could it grow instead?

This week on The Numbers, we dissect some new numbers on how Canadians view the possibility of a new pipeline and what they could mean for the fortunes of the Liberals. We also have some new polls concerning the federal scene and Quebec provincial politics to chat about.

This Friday, don’t miss our 2026 Leader Resignation Draft episode. Join the Patreon to listen to it if you aren’t already a member!

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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Prime Minister Mark Carney is reportedly set to announce a new agreement with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith that could pave the way for a new pipeline to the Pacific coast. The only problem? British Columbia might not be on board. Beyond the implications for the economy and the environment, could choosing between Alberta and B.C. have electoral repercussions for the Liberals?

This week on The Numbers, we break down views on a new pipeline and what impact it could have on Liberal fortunes in the two westernmost provinces. We also discuss the state of the NDP leadership race and what two new polls tell us about it, before chatting about the latest upheaval in Quebec provincial politics. Then, Philippe is back with The Quiz.

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It wasn’t entirely clear how the budget was going to get passed, but it did indeed get passed on Monday night thanks to the abstentions of a few Conservative and NDP MPs. So, that means Canadians won’t be called to the polls over the holidays. But the clock on this minority parliament continues to count down. How long can it really last?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss what happened with the budget vote on Monday and what it tells us about the timing of the next federal election. We also chat about some new polling numbers, including both at the federal level and provincially out of New Brunswick and Quebec, as well as about an upcoming byelection in Prince Edward Island.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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