It’s that time of year again!

Time for us to match wits as we try to predict the political year to come. How many seats will the Conservatives win in the next federal election? Will the Liberals’ vote share be above or below the historic low set in 2011? How many leaders will resign on election night?

And who made the best predictions for 2024?

In addition to taking out the crystal ball for the federal campaign, we also make some guesses about what to expect in provincial elections in Ontario, Newfoundland and Labrador and in politics across the country!

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It’s hard to find the right adjectives to describe what happened with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government this week following the resignation of former finance minister Chrystia Freeland. But we try our best to make sense of what just happened and what could happen next. We also talk about some of the first post-resignation polling numbers that have been published since it all went down.

Plus, we have federal byelection results to dissect in Cloverdale–Langley City and provincial results to discuss in Lethbridge-West, as well as new poll out of Manitoba.

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This week on The Numbers, we break down the latest federal polling that continues to look rough for Justin Trudeau. Next week’s byelection in the B.C. riding of Cloverdale–Langley City also looks rough for the Liberals, as the Conservatives appear likely to flip the seat that has gone back and forth between the two parties since 2015.

We also take a look at the latest premier approval ratings, how things are shaping up for Doug Ford in Ontario and just who is the favourite in next week’s Alberta provincial byelection in Lethbridge-West.

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

As always, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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Four new polls put the Liberals and New Democrats within zero to two points of each other — and behind the Conservatives by margins of 19 to 23 points. We delve into the numbers and what they mean for each of the parties. Has Justin Trudeau’s promised GST holiday helped or hurt his chances?

We also discuss provincial polls coming out of Ontario and Quebec, where two incumbent premiers (Doug Ford and François Legault) face two very different futures.

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

As always, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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A new poll, employing a new methodology, has the Conservatives at their highest and the Liberals at their lowest levels of support in years — maybe even a decade. What to make of it?

On this week’s episode of The Numbers, we also break down Tim Houston’s PC landslide in the Nova Scotia election and take a look at some recent polls out of Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island.

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

As always, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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A new poll by Abacus Data puts the Liberals and NDP neck-and-neck in national voting intentions, well behind the Conservatives. But this isn’t the first time it’s happened. Is it a blip or another worrying sign for Justin Trudeau?

On this episode of The Numbers, we take a look at the federal polling landscape. We then discuss some new numbers out of Quebec before taking a deep-dive into the Nova Scotia provincial election. Could anything put a big win by Tim Houston’s PCs in doubt, and who has the inside track on forming the official opposition?

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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The Liberals face a tough test — maybe their toughest test yet — in an upcoming byelection in the B.C. Lower Mainland. Will Justin Trudeau and the Liberals lose their third contest in a row?

We also take a look at the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP. Then, we discuss new provincial polling numbers ahead of Nova Scotia’s election and Ontario’s apparently upcoming election. Finally, we chat about new polling from Quebec that continues to show trouble for Premier François Legault.

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

As always, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Pollsters under-estimated Donald Trump’s support in his first two presidential campaigns. Did they do it a third time this year? We take a look at how the polls performed south of the border — and what the results could mean for politics on this side of it.

We also dissect some of the latest federal polling and fundraising numbers, plus we take a look at where things stand in the early days of the Nova Scotia provincial election campaign. Then, we close with a U.S.-themed Quiz!

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

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The Sask. Party held on in Saskatchewan in what turned out to be a close election, but the polls nevertheless missed the mark by a wide margin. We break down the results. We also take a look at the final count in British Columbia and the snap election call in Nova Scotia, where Tim Houston is hoping to avoid an incumbent slump. Then, we discuss the latest federal polls and whether the Liberals have any good alternatives for leader. Plus, the return of The Quiz!

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This week on The Numbers, we parse through the surprising results of the British Columbia and New Brunswick provincial elections. What’s next for the B.C. Conservatives, what do we make of the Liberals’ shellacking of the PCs out east and how did the polls do?

We also discuss the mini-revolt within the Liberal caucus and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau’s leadership. There’s also a new poll giving the Saskatchewan NDP the lead ahead of Monday’s vote, and another poll showing Doug Ford’s Ontario PCs on cruise control. Does it mean an early election?

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.