The MPs are back in Ottawa and already the big question on Parliament Hill is whether or not the government will survive the budget vote later this fall. Just a few seats short of a majority, Mark Carney’s Liberals still require the support (or abstention) of at least one other party in the House of Commons. Do any of those parties have an incentive to go back to the polls sooner rather than later?

This week on The Numbers, we break down the current state of the polls and what they say about the stability of this Parliament. We also discuss the newly-launched Newfoundland and Labrador election campaign, Bonnie Crombie’s resignation as leader of the Ontario Liberals and some provincial polling numbers from coast to coast.

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Parliamentarians return to Ottawa next week for what will be the first showdown between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in the House of Commons. It’ll be the official kick-off for the fall political season. Who will come out on top?

This week on The Numbers, after delving into the latest poll numbers we play a little game of “buy or sell” — buying the parties and leaders we think will end the season higher in the polls than where they are today, and selling those we think could end up in a worse spot.

Plus, we also chat about an upcoming provincial byelection in New Brunswick and break down the latest goings-on in Quebec, where Premier François Legault’s government is up against the ropes as a new poll shows the CAQ at rock bottom.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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The first two serious contenders for the federal NDP leadership have emerged in Heather McPherson and Avi Lewis, according to recent reporting. But the challenge they have ahead of them to rehabilitate the ailing New Democratic Party is enormous. Could the path laid out by Manitoba’s Wab Kinew be the answer?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss where the NDP goes from here as its leadership race officially begins. We also chat about whether we’re seeing any corroboration of last week’s polling numbers that showed some Liberal slippage, plus the potential for a couple of federal byelections in the next few months. Then, we break down the results of the Spruce Woods byelection in Manitoba, where the incumbent PCs were nearly upset in a safe riding. Plus, new poll numbers in Ontario disagree on where Doug Ford stands — is he in a dominant position, or just a really good one? Finally, Philippe ups the ante with another Quiz.

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Is Mark Carney’s honeymoon in danger of coming to an end? A new poll from Abacus Data suggests the Liberals might have lost some steam for the first time since the April election. What to make of these new numbers that put the Conservatives marginally ahead?

This week on The Numbers, we take a look at this new poll — and a few others that muddy the waters, including some not-so-strong numbers for Pierre Poilievre nationwide. We also discuss the upcoming (second) resignation of Green leader Elizabeth May and a new poll that puts the Parti Québécois in the driver’s seat ahead of the 2026 Quebec election. We close with a prime ministerial Quiz from Philippe.

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Pierre Poilievre easily won the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection on Monday, thereby securing his return to the House of Commons. His closest challenger, Independent candidate Bonnie Critchley, finished 70 points behind as voters in the riding came out in droves to support the Conservative leader.

This week on The Numbers, we dive deep into the results of the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection. We also discuss some recent poll numbers that continue to look good for Mark Carney and the Liberals but suggest some vulnerabilities on key issues (such as the now-ended Air Canada strike and Donald Trump’s tariffs). Plus, we take a look at what happened in two PEI byelections last week and then Philippe closes with a byelection-themed Quiz.

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With less than a week to go before the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection, how do we assess Pierre Poilievre’s chances to not only win but to put up a score that is just as big as what his Conservative predecessors did in the riding? Plus, what to make of the news that Jenni Byrne, who ran the Conservative campaign in this year’s election, will not be running the party’s next campaign?

This week on The Numbers, we take our last look at the Battle for Battle River–Crowfoot. We also discuss the results of the Quebec provincial byelection in Arthabaska, where the Parti Québécois secured a surprisingly comfortable victory over Éric Duhaime and the Quebec Conservatives. What does it mean for politics in the province ahead of next year’s election?

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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For the second time in as many elections, Pierre Poilievre will have to contend with an enormous number of opponents. After the Longest Ballot Committee organized to expand the list of names to 91 candidates in Carleton, they’ve now boosted their efforts to push the roster of candidates to over 200 ahead of the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection.

Will it be the final straw before changes are made to the election laws? And what impact could it have on the race?

This week on The Numbers, we delve into the absurd byelection in Alberta. We also discuss some of the latest federal polling, as well as a trio of provincial byelections added to the calendar in Prince Edward Island and Manitoba and a face-off between Bonnie Crombie and Nate Erskine-Smith that is brewing within the Ontario Liberal Party. Then, Philippe takes us back to a time when “the land was strong” in this week’s edition of The Quiz.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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As Donald Trump rachets up the pressure on Mark Carney, a majority of Canadians are still approving of the job the prime minister is doing. And one of the things that might be helping him the most is Canadians’ own lack of trust that the U.S. president is acting in good faith.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss some of the latest polling on how Canadians are viewing Carney’s government and their negotiations with the United States over tariffs. We also discuss the rules that have been laid out by the New Democrats for their leadership race. Is the entry fee too high? Is the race too long?

Plus, Philippe is tested with an impromptu Quiz as we look back on where things stood in summers past.

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After the New Democrats suffered a stinging rebuke in the last federal election, there are many questions surrounding where the party goes from here — and who could lead it.

On this week’s episode of The Numbers, we discuss the troubled state of the NDP and a new poll that suggests few Canadians know much about any of the potential leadership contenders. We also chat about what the polls say about Pierre Poilievre’s current standing within the Conservative Party, as well as an upcoming provincial byelection in Quebec. Plus, Philippe has a quiz on past NDP leadership contests.

If you missed it last week, we played a round of Over/Unders on the federal byelection in Battle River–Crowfoot. You can listen to this members-only episode by joining our Patreon here.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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The Alberta New Democrats held their two seats in Edmonton and the United Conservatives won their seat in the rural south of the province. Naheed Nenshi now has a seat in the legislature and Danielle Smith has kept the separatists at bay. But there are some conflicting signals in the results. Are there reasons for Smith to be concerned over these numbers?

And what could they mean for Pierre Poilievre’s own quest for a seat in rural Alberta?

We break down the results of the Alberta byelections in this week’s episode of The Numbers. We also discuss the deep hole Quebec’s François Legault finds himself in and Philippe has another quiz (and a tough one) on the results of the 2025 federal election.

(We are planning to take a break for Canada Day, but our next episode for members of our Patreon should be out at the end of next week.)

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