Mark Carney’s Liberals have a majority in sight after adding Nunavut MP Lori Idlout to their ranks. The former New Democrats has pushed the Liberals to 170 seats in the House of Commons, meaning they are only two short of a majority with three vacancies set to be filled in a trio of byelections on April 13.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss Idlout’s floor-crossing, the byelection calendar and what it all means for the Liberals and the opposition parties. Is the NDP in serious trouble? What does a majority mean for Pierre Poilievre’s leadership? We also chat about the latest fundraising figures from the NDP leadership contest and break down all of the new federal polls published over the last week. Then, it’s the triomphant return of The Quiz!

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Both Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre were overseas this week, as the prime minister made stops in India, Australia and Japan and the opposition leader visited Germany and the United Kingdom. But while the trips were foreign, the politics are always domestic.

This week on The Numbers, we take a look at polling numbers that shed some light on what Canadians think about a few hot button foreign policy issues and what bearing that could have on Liberal and Conservative support. We also chat about some of the latest federal polling numbers, including a new Léger poll that awards the Liberals a 14-point lead. Plus, we discuss some new provincial polls in Alberta, British Columbia and Quebec, where support for independence has hit a new low.

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As the polling gap widens between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, a surprising new trend has emerged. In Alberta, three new polls suggest the margin between the two parties has closed significantly. What is behind this shift in the polls, is it the real deal and what could it mean for the next election?

We break it all down on this week’s episode of The Numbers. We also discuss the results of the Chicoutimi byelection as well as some new provincial polling out of Quebec and Ontario, where Doug Ford has dismissed numbers that show he might be losing a step on his rivals.

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With the decision of Edmonton Riverbend MP Matt Jeneroux to cross from the Conservatives over to the Liberals — rather than resign as he said he would back in November — Pierre Poilievre’s leadership of the Conservative Party is again under the microscope. And with one additional MP joining the government benches and a series of byelections on the horizon, Mark Carney and the Liberals are within sight of the majority government they were denied in the 2025 federal election.

This week on The Numbers, we break down the implications of Jeneroux’s floor-crossing, the over-turning of the Terrebonne election result and the potential resignation of NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice, who is reportedly eyeing greener (or more orange?) pastures at the provincial level. We also have some new polls to discuss out of British Columbia, Ontario, Nova Scotia and Quebec.

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With the polls showing a spike in support for the Liberals, speculation has also spiked about an early election. What do the polls say about whether Mark Carney’s Liberals or Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives should want to head back on the campaign trail in 2026?

This week on The Numbers, we break down the state of the federal race and discuss whether or not Carney’s bump is an extension of his honeymoon or an entirely new thing. We also chat about the round of byelections that we can expect in the next few months and what they mean for both federal and Ontario politics. Plus, a new poll on Alberta independence shows some stark divides in the province that complicate things for Danielle Smith (and Poilievre).

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Pierre Poilievre received 87.4% support in his leadership review at the Conservative convention in Calgary — a number we said in last week’s episode would be the “most boring” because it would be neither extremely high nor problematically low. But now that Poilievre has passed this test, he has to face his next challenge: closing the widening gap in the polls between his Conservatives and Mark Carney’s Liberals.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the aftermath of Poilievre’s leadership review and what the polls are saying about the state of the national race. We also chat about the NDP leadership contest, where Avi Lewis has opened a wide fundraising lead. Plus, we have some new provincial polls out of B.C., Alberta and Quebec.

(Our discussion of the upcoming federal byelections was before the Liberals announced they had nominated Ontario NDP MPP Doly Begum as their candidate in Scarborough Southwest.)

Scheduling note: Starting next week, new episodes of The Numbers will be published on Thursdays. Look for the next episode of The Numbers on February 12!

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Following Prime Minister Mark Carney’s speech at Davos last week, the polls appear to have shifted in his favour — and against that of Pierre Poilievre. With the House of Commons now sitting again, the year’s political season just getting started and Poilievre only a few days away from his leadership review in Calgary, what do these numbers mean for where things go from here on the federal political scene?

We break it all down on this week’s episode of The Numbers. We also take a look at some new polls coming out of the provincial level in Ontario, Quebec and Alberta. Where do voters stand on the idea of Alberta independence?

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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With less than two weeks to go before Pierre Poilievre’s leadership review in Calgary, a new poll shows a spike in his negative ratings to a new high. Is it a one-off blip or a sign of a deeper problem for the Conservative leader?

We break down the federal polls on this week’s episode of The Numbers. We also discuss François Legault’s bombshell resignation last week and how it shuffles the deck ahead of Quebec’s provincial election in October.

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Chrystia Freeland, the former cabinet minister and Liberal leadership contestant whose resignation letter was the final nail in the coffin of Justin Trudeau’s prime ministership, finally vacated her seat in the House of Commons last week. As Mark Carney tries to find his way to the magic number of 172 seats needed for a majority government, he now has one more to fill.

And it likely won’t be the last.

In the first episode of 2026 of The Numbers, we take a look at the one byelection we know will happen soon and the other potential seats that could be vacated in the coming weeks or months. We also discuss the latest federal polling numbers as well as the state of the B.C. Conservative, Quebec Liberal and Ontario Liberal leadership races. Plus, there’s a new poll out of Nova Scotia.

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After tackling the year in federal politics to come, we now turn our attentions to the provincial scenes.

In this second part of our Over/Under Contest, we set our lines for the Quebec election in October. We also make our predictions for potential other provincial elections, premier resignations, leadership race outcomes and where party leaders might end the year in the polls.

Thanks for all of your support for the podcast throughout 2025 and we wish you all the best in 2026!

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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