Live With The Maverick

My guest for Episode 102 is Monica Shokrai, FCAS, MAAA, Head of Business Risk and Insurance for Google Cloud.

The theme for the episode is 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗠𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 - 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟯.

Monica and I covered the following topics:⁣

✅ The risk management landscape for individuals and businesses
✅ Working in various risk management roles at Google
✅ Specific examples of risk management projects 
✅ The cloud and its relevance for business 
✅ Security tradeoffs between on-premises and cloud 
✅ How actuaries are involved with cyber risk quantification 
✅ InsideOUT data services and its connection to the cloud 
✅ How technology is being used to add value in risk management 
✅ How actuaries are helping tech companies innovate 
✅ Keys to effective cross-functional collaboration for actuaries in tech 

Time Markers

2:06: Risk management in simple terms, downside and upside considerations, and holistic frameworks. 

4:57: The risk landscape today (cyber, AI, climate and emerging risks) and the heightened rate of change.

7:39: Insuring and transferring Alphabet’s risks, shaping contract terms and product development, and leading actuarial team.

12:42: Insurance purchasing decisions, getting business units to implement risk controls, and developing competitive intelligence.

17:02: Applying actuarial principles to improve modeling that drives business decisions beyond insurance purchasing.

22:12: The cloud, cloud-based applications (Google Cloud, Workspace, Chrome) and security implications.

25:17: Security trends that drive cloud adoption (implementing high-end security features and developing a stronger digital immune system).

28:55: Risks that companies encounter when adopting cloud solutions (reliability, third-party risks, and data residency).

31:18: Cyber risk quantification (frequency, severity, Monte Carlo simulation, and score framework). 

34:40: InsideOUT data services (using metrics from a company’s cloud environment to rate and underwrite cyber insurance). 

39:01: Using technology to help with underwriting (AI-powered security cameras for casualty insurance). 

41:15: Helping businesses improve quantification, using analytics to support sales, and putting numbers behind cloud vendor security. 

43:51: The importance of risk models in measuring effectiveness of technology. 

47:23: Working with legal and finance and the importance of shifting perspectives. 

If you are seeking to understand the intersection between risk management and technology, you want to listen to this.

My Website: maverickactuary.com

My guest for Episode 101 is Marcela Granados Lavoie, FCAS, CSPA, Principal - Global Head of Insurance at Databricks.

The theme for the episode is 𝗔𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗦𝗼𝗳𝘁𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗲.

Marcela and I covered the following topics:⁣

✅ Marcela’s motivation for pivoting to tech/software
✅ Why a software company would need an actuary 
✅ The cloud and how it enables insurance modernization 
✅ How generative AI can help yield value for insurance companies 
✅ Using unstructured data for underwriting, claim, marketing, and distribution 
✅ Marcela’s experience learning R and Python 
✅ Programming and coding proficiency actuaries need today
✅ Tips for actuaries, data scientists, and data engineers to work collaboratively
✅ Origins and motivations for the Organization of Latino Actuaries

Time Markers

1:30: Transition from consulting to tech/software (impact of legacy systems on consumer sentiment, shifting policyholder expectations, and personalized experiences). 

5:21: Where actuaries add value in tech/software (strategic conversations, becoming trusted advisors, speaking language of insurance, and understanding customer pain points).

7:10: Connecting horizontal product features to vertical insurance functions, understanding and quantification of customer use cases.

12:10: Databricks as a data and AI platform for ingestion, transformation, curation, servicing, and consumption into downstream applications.

14:40: Databricks’ compute capabilities (moving beyond batch to streaming), separating compute from storage, and evolving from ETL to business outcomes.

16:11: Global Head of Insurance role (qualifying opportunities, briefing executives, influencing product direction, building solution accelerators, and demonstrating platform capabilities).

24:01: Databricks’ customer profile, the rise of semi-structured data, and integration with other technologies.

30:25: The cloud, the rise of big data (volume, variety, and velocity), modernization, and cloud migration trends.

37:18: Generative AI explanation and homeowner’s premium modeling illustration (GLMs vs. neural networks).

44:10: Generative AI use cases (accident descriptions, product recommendations, coverage verification, underwriting appetite, claim reporting, measuring intent, and customer triaging).

49:36: The importance of programming and coding, open-source (R and Python), and combining programming languages with generative AI (ex. CoPilot).

54:56: Collaborative illustration with actuaries (business hypothesis and analysis), data scientists (model fine tuning and algo testing), and data engineers (building data pipelines).

1:01:18: The Organization of Latino actuaries, origins, and motivations.

If you are an actuary seeking to work in technology/software, you want to listen to this.

My Website: maverickactuary.com

My guest for Episode 100 is David Wilkie, CBE, FFA, FIA, FSS, FIMA, Hon D Sc, Hon D Math, Chairman at InQA Limited.

The theme for the episode is 𝗔𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 - 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟮.

David and I covered the following topics in 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟮 of this historic episode:⁣

✅ Modeling uncertainty within insurance, finance, and risk mgmt
✅ Shortcomings of the Black-Scholes option pricing model
✅ The origins and evolution of the Wilkie Model for economic variables
✅ Realistic disaster scenarios for marine insurance 
✅ The financial crisis, agency risk, and model hazard 
✅ Helping to shape actuarial standards and practice globally 
✅ David’s new unreleased research paper 

𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟮 Time Markers

1:25: Random walk hypothesis and modern financial economics. 

2:49: Unit-linked life insurance policies and connection to share price uncertainty. 

6:30: Foundations of the first Wilkie Model (retail prices, dividends, dividend yields, and long-term interest rates). 

8:40: Limitations of Black-Scholes option pricing model assumptions (share price, transactions costs, and hedging constraints).

13:25: The key innovation for the first Wilkie Model (incorporating stochastic framework, variability, variable interrelations, and autoregressive methods).

16:30: The second Wilkie Model (short-term interest rates, property, property yields, and foreign exchange rates).

19:05: Index-linked yields and modifying long-term interest rate assumptions.

22:02: Incorporating company earnings and payout ratios (dividend payout and price/earnings) into Wilkie Model.

23:56: Realistic disaster scenarios, evaluating extreme losses for oil industry, and Lloyd’s syndicate as-if reserves.

30:16: Incorporating parameter uncertainty into Wilkie Model (hyper model approach).

32:51: Using fatter tail distributions (Normal, hyperbolic, and Laplace) for variables with extreme values and high kurtosis.

38:06: Transparency challenges around economic scenario generation. 

39:03: Packaging of mortgages leading up to 2008 financial crisis and resulting implications. 


42:32: Misaligned incentives in corporate taxation (interest 
payment deductions).   

46:33: Involvement with actuarial and scientific organizations. 

50:30: Approved directive for life insurance valuation principles to address country-level disconnects.

52:26: Research that David hasn’t done yet but intends to do. 

If you are an actuary interested in research, modeling, and programming, you want to listen to this.

My Website: maverickactuary.com

My guest for Episode 100 is David Wilkie, CBE, FFA, FIA, FSS, FIMA, Hon D Sc, Hon D Math, Chairman at InQA Limited.

The theme for the episode is 𝗔𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 - 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟮.

David and I covered the following topics in 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟭 of this historic episode:⁣

✅ David’s early childhood and formative years
✅ What motivated David to become an actuary
✅ Building a strong foundation for academic research
✅ Mortality forecasting for the Committee of Mortality Investigation
✅ Early development of life and annuity tables
✅ The Financial Times Actuaries British Government Securities Indices
✅ Multi-state modeling for income protection insurance
✅ Mortality modeling for the COVID-19 Working Party
✅ Promoting the power of programming as an early adopter
✅ The evolution of programming in insurance and risk management
✅ The most significant development in the actuarial profession

𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟭 Time Markers

2:34: Early years in Glasgow, education in Lancaster and Cambridge, and national service.

8:24: First actuarial role at Allianz Life in Stuttgart, actuarial exams, and qualification journey.

10:15: First programming experience with Ferranti Pegasus computer at Standard Life. 

20:03: Early involvement with the Committee of Mortality Investigation (CMI). 

22:23: Writing Fortran programs to produce graduated mortality tables. 

24:58: Gompertz-Makeham model for force of mortality. 

27:31: Developing share indices for the Joint Investment Committee. 

32:35: Multi-state modeling for income protection insurance and epidemics. 

43:04: Using historical mortality rates in Sweden, Spain, and Switzerland for COVID-19 modeling. 

45:17: Fitting Lee-Carter model to population data and using time series to analyze time coefficient.

48:10: Using mixture models to account for kurtosis in COVID-19 data. 

51:44: Using stochastic methods for modeling small pension funds. 

54:02: Programming and coding today.

56:06: The impact of computers on the actuarial profession. 

If you are an actuary interested in research, modeling, and programming, you want to listen to this.

My Website: maverickactuary.com

My guest for Episode 99 is Julia Lessing, FIAA, Director at Guardian Actuarial.

The theme for the episode is 𝗔𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗖𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗿𝘀 - 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟮.

Julia and I explore the following topics:⁣

✅ The actuarial profession in Australia
✅ The market for new graduates and qualified actuaries in Australia
✅ Opportunities for actuaries in data science and non-traditional roles
✅ The impact of generational dynamics for future actuaries
✅ Transitioning from individual contributor to manager
✅ Tips for actuaries leading a team for the first time
✅ Tips for actuaries presenting results to stakeholders 
✅ Tips for actuaries managing high-quality technical work
✅ Communication and leadership traits to be an effective actuary
✅ Retraining, upskilling, and future-proofing actuarial careers

If you are an actuary interested in building a dynamic and resilient career, you want to listen to this.

My Website: maverickactuary.com

My guest for Episode 98 is Cathy Lyn, FIA, FSA, IFoA Council Member and Retired Actuary.

The theme for the episode is 𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗳𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘀.

Cathy and I explore the following topics:⁣

✅ Running for IFoA Council and what she seeks to contribute
✅ Nurturing a competitive quantitative workforce
✅ The importance of mathematical rigor in society
✅ Why quantitative professionals need to have a seat at the table
✅ How quantitative professionals make countries more competitive 
✅ How actuaries and engineers can work together to develop systems
✅ Quantitative opportunities in housing, transportation, and agriculture
✅ Changing societal attitudes towards paying for competency
✅ Closing educational gaps in developing a quantitative workforce 
✅ The importance of industry-academia collaboration for quants
✅ The importance of mentorship and professional networks for quants

If you want to understand how quantitative professionals make a difference in society, you want to listen to this.

My Website: maverickactuary.com

My guest for Episode 97 is Lewis Kemp, CEO at Lightbulb Media.

The theme for the episode is 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴.

Lewis and I explore the following topics:⁣

✅ Content marketing and its relevance in the modern era
✅ Content creation and its importance for professionals 
✅ The three stages of the conversion funnel
✅ How individuals can apply the conversion funnel to their own careers
✅ How individuals can find their target audience
✅ Developing success criteria around content creation
✅ Keys to cultivating a relationship with a target audience 
✅ Keys to finding your authentic voice when creating content
✅ Fundamentals for individuals getting started with content 
✅ Overcoming nerves and limiting beliefs around content creation

If you are curious about creating content and not sure where to start, you want to listen to this.

My Website: maverickactuary.com

My guest for Episode 96 is Don Grimm, FCAS, Principal and Consulting Actuary at Archer Actuarial Consulting.

The theme for the episode is 𝗘𝘅𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗖𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗮𝗹𝘁𝘆.

Don and I explore the following topics:⁣

✅ The connection between excess casualty and primary lines
✅ Target classes of business and coverage scope for excess casualty
✅ Capacity, rate dynamics, and trends in the excess casualty market
✅ Key differences between excess casualty and umbrella insurance
✅ Tradeoffs between excess casualty and reinsurance
✅ Evaluating attachment points and limits for excess layers
✅ Unique risk dynamics and exposure attributes for excess casualty
✅ Risk loads for casualty lines of business 
✅ The life cycle of an excess casualty program
✅ Actuarial reserving considerations for excess casualty

If you work in property and casualty insurance, especially on the liability side, you want to listen to this.

My Website: maverickactuary.com

My guest for Episode 95 is Hasham Piperdy, FIA, General Manager, Saudi Arabia and Director, Actuarial at Badri Management Consultancy.

The theme for the episode is 𝗔𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗱𝗱𝗹𝗲 𝗘𝗮𝘀𝘁.

Hash and I explore the following topics:⁣

✅ The Middle East region and its relevance for actuaries
✅ Insurance penetration, regulation, and market in the Middle East
✅ United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and mature market dynamics
✅ Yemen, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and emerging market dynamics
✅ Takaful insurance and other unique market attributes
✅ The impact of oil prices on insurance markets 
✅ Sustainability initiatives, oil dependency, and economic diversification 
✅ Vision 2030 and other transformation initiatives in the region 
✅ The actuarial profession in the Middle East
✅ The supply/demand imbalance in actuarial science
✅ Opportunities for actuaries to add value in the region
✅ The impact of geopolitical risk on insurance 

If you are interested in learning about the Middle East actuarial market, you want to listen to this.

My Website: maverickactuary.com

My guest for Episode 94 is Dorothy Andrews, ASA, MAAA, PhD, Senior Behavioral Data Scientist and Actuary at NAIC.

The theme for the episode is 𝗠𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗮 𝗣𝘀𝘆𝗰𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝘆.

Dorothy and I explore the following topics:⁣

✅ The link between media, data, and algorithms
✅ Pitfalls in using big data to gain cognitive insights
✅ The relevance of psychology for building models
✅ The link between correlation and causation
✅ Rational explanations for variable relationships
✅ Natural experiments and randomized controlled trials 
✅ The link between cognitive bias and cognitive dissonance
✅ Bias in traffic ticketing, health diagnoses, and loss ratio modeling 
✅ Potential downstream societal implications of bias 
✅ How the insurance industry is addressing negative bias

If you are interested in learning about media psychology, you want to listen to this.

My Website: maverickactuary.com