Trueflation at 1.29%, waste management volumes at pandemic lows, and record apartment concessions — the real economy is whispering recession while energy prices scream inflation.

So why might the Fed hike anyway, and what would that tell us about what comes next?

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The Bank of Japan may be moving from biannual to quarterly hikes — a marginal policy shift with an outsized signal.

Combined with a one-third market probability of a Fed hike and a nailed-on ECB move in September, this week's central bank calendar is anything but quiet.

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Energy prices, geopolitical flashpoints, and a Japanese yen under serious pressure - it's a challenging backdrop for any central bank. Nussbaumer and Grimm dissect whether the ECB's anticipated pause is prudent caution or a costly misstep.

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Estimates are going up, not down - and that alone should raise eyebrows. Christine Short of Wall Street Horizon joins LiveSquawk to unpack why analyst optimism is running unusually hot heading into Q2 and what the banks' blowout results really signal.

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Chair Warsh has quietly buried forward guidance, and markets are still catching up. With CPI, retail sales, and a volatile energy complex all in play, the inflation narrative is getting complicated fast.

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A soft jobs report hands the Fed's new chairman an unexpected reprieve - but is the labor market cooling or cracking? Harry and Jamie Dutta weigh in on what the NFP miss really means for rate policy.

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Rory Johnston joins Commodity Corner to break down a global energy market caught between geopolitical de-escalation and a demand shock out of China. With contango building and refinery damage still rippling through the supply chain, the outlook for energy investors is anything but straightforward.

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Keir Starmer is out — and markets are watching who fills the vacuum. We break down what Andy Burnham's anticipated rise means for UK assets, sterling, and investor confidence at a precarious moment.

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Kevin Warsh steps into the Fed Chair role with markets expecting a unanimous hold — but it's what changes in the statement that has traders on edge. Is the easing bias about to disappear?

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ING's global head of macro, Carsten Brzeski, joins LiveSquawk ahead of today's ECB decision to break down why one hike is insurance — and two might be where the risk begins.

What would it take for the ECB to reverse course, and could Lagarde's press conference give it away before the summer?

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