
In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, we welcome back Lobo Tiggre, author and publisher of theindependentspeculator.com, about his predictions for the economy in 2024. Tiggre acknowledges that there were signs of a recession in various sectors in 2022, but low interest rates and labor hoarding prevented it from fully materializing. However, he believes that a recession will soon become undeniable, possibly in the first half of the year, based on indicators such as the declining trend in job openings. Tiggre expects a softer landing for the economy only if indicators prove to be wrong and the overall health of the economy is stronger than believed.



He also discusses the de-dollarization trend, which he sees as a long-term mega trend that will eventually lead to the downfall of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. He notes that de-dollarization is already happening but expects it to take decades to have an impact on his investment decisions. Tiggre believes that gold will continue to perform well, especially in a recessionary environment, and advises investors to focus on undervalued gold stocks, particularly developers building their first mine. He draws a parallel with his successful bullish call on uranium, where strong fundamentals and positive technical indicators eventually led to a rise in prices. While Tiggre acknowledges the risks involved, he remains bullish on gold and sees potential for significant price increases.



Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:52 - Fed & Recession Trend5:48 - Labor Reporting7:46 - Soft Landing Requirements?10:23 - Fed Trend Change?14:48 - Inflation Targets17:07 - Input Costs & Inflation24:30 - Fed "Independence"25:39 - De-Dollarization Trends29:33 - Global Weakness32:47 - Saudi Oil Cuts & Price34:27 - Lithium Demand & Slowdown37:47 - Gold Bearish Scenario?40:52 - Risk/Reward Gold Opportunity45:12 - Uranium & Rick Rule49:32 - Secondary Supply?55:46 - Takeover Possibilities57:09 - Spot & Contracts1:01:00 - Wrap Up



Guest Links:Website: https://independentspeculator.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/duediligenceguyFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/louis.james.965580/Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lobotiggre/



Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name "Louis James." While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey.



Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record.



A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has "skin in the game" with them.

Lobo Tiggre: The Fed Isn’t Done Breaking Things

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Tom Bodrovics, welcomes back Don Durrett, an experienced author, investor, and founder of Goldstockdata.com, to discuss gold prices and the economic implications. Durrett believes an imminent hard economic landing will boost his bullish stance on gold. In March 2023, gold reached new highs above $2050, while silver showed significant gains. However, miners have not followed suit.



Durrett considers the present economic climate different from previous periods due to the Federal Reserve's reduced ability to revive the economy. He highlights that while the US economy grew and used debt in the 1990s, it eventually balanced its budget. However, since then, the US economy has reportedly been declining for approximately 25 years, leading to significant global shifts like countries abandoning US bonds and equities and increasing interest in gold as a reserve currency.



Japan's bond and currency struggles could potentially trigger a crisis due to their substantial US treasury holdings. Durrett discusses the potential impact of Asian countries purchasing gold and the importance of oil purchases in gold-importing countries like Japan and China.



Don expresses bearish views on the stock market and bullish predictions for silver prices due to inventory shortages, increasing demand, and potential manipulation attempts like those seen with the Hunt Brothers in the past.



Don shares his perspective on gold miners using the HUI index to identify buying and selling opportunities. He considers anything below $250 on the HUI cheap, with levels between $200 and $225 being the buy zone. Opportunities for cheaper stocks extend from $225 to $250. However, as the HUI approaches $300, fewer cheap stocks become available. He anticipates the gold miners' bull market hasn't started yet but expects it to resume in the next couple of months and predicts a potential dip in gold and silver prices before the significant uptrend begins. The summer may not be as uneventful this year due to potential rapid market movements once risk-on sentiment shifts to risk-off.



Don has been successful with mid-tier producers some of which have seen substantial growth through acquisitions. He also discusses his investment strategy, holding stocks amidst potential economic downturns, diversification through various investments such as silver, crypto, and physical preparation by selling to the top. He also mentions the unsustainability of constant wars due to increasing budget deficits, implying that peace may prevail as America retreats from its aggressive role on the global stage.



Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Article & Gold ATH4:25 - Rates, Risks & Spending18:37 - Japanese Bond Markets23:40 - C.B. Gold Buying27:27 - Gold Price Predictions31:34 - Silver Expectations37:50 - Hunt Brothers 2.0?43:23 - ETF Metal Flows48:07 - Miners Bull Market?51:22 - Summer Doldrums?54:30 - Wall Street Interest?1:01:22 - Miners Risk Vs. Return1:10:00 - Stocks & Great Taking?1:15:10 - Rapid Changes Coming1:21:22 - Optimism & Wrap Up



Talking Points From This Episode




* Don Durrett believes an economic downturn will boost gold prices; gold & silver reached new highs in March 2023, but miners lagged behind.



* Bearish on stocks, bullish on silver due to inventory shortages, increasing demand, and potential manipulation attempts.



* America's aggressive role on the global stage unsustainable due to budget deficits, peace may prevail.




Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DonDurrettWebsite: https://www.goldstockdata.com/Free Trial: <a href="https://www.

Don Durrett: The End of America’s Hegemony


In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, economist and wealth advisor Jonathan Davis once again joins host Tom Bodrovics to discuss the theme of inflation and its implications for the current economic era. Davis argues that we have transitioned from a disinflationary era lasting over 40 years into one characterized by financial repression, which he defines as higher inflation. Tracing this shift back to the post-World War II era when debt levels were unsustainable, Davis contends that recent financial crises were not caused by COVID but rather by 'shenanigans' in financial markets. With interest rates reaching historic lows by 2020, Davis predicts that inflation for the next generation will be between 5% and 10%, and interest rates will significantly increase from past decade levels. This transition to financial repression is a response to politicians, central bankers, and bankers' desire to maintain inflation rather than risk deflation.



The conversation also touches upon China's economic shift from manufacturing to consumer industries and property development, expressing concern over the large number of unsold homes in China despite continued commodity demand. Mr. Davis discusses the historical perspective of asset classes, emphasizing substantial returns from stocks, bonds, and property over recent decades but anticipates declining value as interest rates rise. He advocates investing in commodities as a long-term strategy.



Jonathan then discusses the current state of the housing market, despite higher interest rates and the end of fixed-rate mortgages, there hasn't been a significant impact on the housing market yet due to continued employment and low mortgage rates. He also touches upon commercial real estate, suggesting businesses have been able to mitigate costs by subletting unused space and private equity firms delaying effects of the market downturn.



Jonathan shares insights on oil prices' correlation with inflation, anticipating a rebound and potentially reaching $200 within the next few years due to insufficient production relative to economic growth, causing significant drops in energy stocks. He encourages staying informed, adapting investment strategies, remaining cautious, and avoiding excessive greed.



Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - The End of an Era13:05 - Real Rates & Growth20:10 - De-China-Fication23:15 - Lending & Global Growth27:32 - Real Vs. Nominal Returns29:00 - Dow Long-Term Chart30:49 - 10-Year Treasury Chart36:24 - Housing Markets & Rates41:34 - Commercial Real Estate45:10 - Uranium Thoughts51:20 - Miners & Juniors55:34 - Crude Oil & Energy1:00:53 - Commodities & HODL Gold1:05:57 - Eastern Metal Buying1:08:30 - Maintaining Objectivity1:10:44 - Uranium & Wrap Up



Talking Points from This Episode




* Davis argues for a new era of financial repression, characterized by higher inflation, due to unsustainable debt levels since the post-World War II era.



* Significant price increases for uranium, gold, and silver miners, and global energy in the next one to three years due to low supply and increasing demand.



* Politicians and central bankers will maintain inflation rather than risk deflation, which would benefit consumers but negatively impact the wealthy.




Guest Links:Website: https://jonathandaviswm.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/j0nathandavisTwitter: https://twitter.com/boomsbusts



Jonathan Davis BA MBA FCII FPFS, Chartered Financial Planner, is the Wealth Adviser. He is a former Chairman of the London Region of The Institute of Financial Plan...

Jonathan Davis: Riding Out the Next Crisis – An Opportune Time to HODL Gold & Silver


Tom welcomes back Lyn Alden, Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, to the show.



Lyn discusses abundant and scarce things in investing, focusing on the era of fiscal dominance that has led to bonds becoming abundant. This is due to large budget deficits and private debt being transferred to the public sector. The implications include higher average fiscal-driven inflation and potential impact on asset prices and tax receipts.



The Federal Reserve's ability to perfectly tune the economy to avoid recession for the next decade is questioned. In emerging markets, stocks may rise in local currency but decrease in hard money terms during recessions. The U.S., however, is experiencing fiscal dominance where public debt exceeds GDP, making it harder to fight inflation and slow down borrowing. While interest rates can help make a country's currency attractive or reduce borrowing demand, raising interest rates results in ballooning expenses, offsetting disinflationary forces. The commercial real estate sector is heavily impacted, but travel companies, seniors, and wealthy individuals may benefit from higher interest rates.



Lyn discusses the SVB bank crisis in 2023, suggesting that the Fed might prioritize saving banks or the Treasury market over controlling inflation, limiting monetary policy flexibility. The potential outcomes of interest rate cuts include growth and demand for commodities but less effectiveness due to fiscal dominance. She emphasizes energy exposure as a hedge against inflationary pressures.



Investment strategies include owning assets related to dense forms of energy in the energy sector, focusing on demographics, aging workforces, and understanding China's labor supply and demand. Alternative investment portfolios like the permanent portfolio and IV portfolio deviate from the traditional 60-40 stock-bond split by including gold and commodities for diversification.



The development of Bitcoin ETFs is seen as inevitable due to its size and liquidity, but risks include hacks and confiscations. Developed countries generally accept Bitcoin as a store of value while regulating its use as a medium of exchange. The importance of building tools to make Bitcoin more efficient for users is emphasized.



Lyn's book, "Broken Money," discusses global financial system issues, with countries relying on the US dollar facing negative consequences if it devalues or if the US manipulates currencies. Running large structural trade deficits is necessary but comes with negative effects such as decreased export competitiveness and de-industrialization. The shift towards more neutral assets like gold and Bitcoin in response to unreliable US dollars is emphasized, along with considering multiple variables and being data-dependent.



Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Bonds, Rates, & Inflation8:42 - Fed and Recessions13:30 - Fiscal Dominance & Stability19:28 - Contrasting the 1940s23:06 - Feds Blinks at Bank Crisis25:54 - Deficits & Debt Rollover29:54 - Rate Cuts & Outcomes31:52 - Easing and Hard Assets33:14 - Energy Exposure?37:40 - Demographics & Demand41:26 - China & Manufacturing44:42 - Labor & Underinvestment47:20 - Skills & Semiconductors50:00 - Portfolio & Reallocating53:20 - Bitcoin ETFs & Impacts?56:06 - Capital Controls & Walls59:23 - Dollar & Broken Money1:03:57 - Wrap Up



Talking Points From This Episode




* Fiscal dominance, inflation, and importance of shifting to neutral assets.



* Understanding multiple forces in macroeconomics and being data-dependent.



* A Shift to Neutral Assets in a World of Fiscal Dominance and Unreliable Currencies




Lyn Alden: Navigating the Conundrum – When Both of the Fed’s Paths Lead to Inflation


Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Bob Moriarty to the show. Bob is founder of 321gold and 321energy.com, and a former Marine Corps fighter pilot during Vietnam. Moriarty believes the year 2024 could be catastrophic due to geopolitical issues and a greater financial crisis but sees opportunities in gold and silver, which have broken out and are expected to continue for the next decade. He emphasizes sentiment and China's control of the gold market as key drivers of their prices. Moriarty discusses potential peace in the Middle East after Israel's conflict with Iran, questioning the sustainability of the US sending large aid packages due to bankruptcy.



Moriarty advocates for ignoring external factors like interest rates, currencies, and politics when investing in gold and silver, using sentiment as a useful tool. He highlights China's significant impact on the gold market and the potential negative vote against US treasuries and the dollar. Moriarty expresses concerns about rising interest rates and their impact on real estate markets, especially commercial property. He also discusses the recent surge in base metals as undervalued commodities and a shift towards commodities from overvalued assets like stocks.



Bob emphasizes the importance of understanding current developments in economy and society, including immigration policies, corruption, and diplomacy. He criticizes the increasing divide between ordinary people and the establishment and advocates for conversation and understanding between opposing sides. He criticizes US foreign policy in Ukraine and advocates for diplomacy to resolve conflicts. He also discusses the impact of misinformation on society and expresses skepticism towards media narratives.



Talking Points From This Episode




* He sees 2024 as a potential crisis year but believes in gold opportunities; emphasizes sentiment and China's influence.



* Relative calm in the Middle East is possible after the recent Israel-Iran conflict, but US aid sustainability questioned.



* Misinformation if not outright falsehoods in the mainstream media and the importance of diploamcy globally.




Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - A Catastrophic Year?2:00 - Whose Driving Metals?4:52 - Warning Signals5:43 - Oil Prices & Iran9:10 - Balance of Power13:30 - Aid to Ukraine19:37 - Measuring Sentiment21:46 - Lessons in FOMO23:24 - Eastern Gold Shift25:10 - Mortgages & Real Estate27:19 - Base Metal Indications28:37 - Government & Corruption30:57 - Reasons for Optimism32:12 - Diplomacy & Conversation37:53 - Alt Media & Opinions43:53 - Wrap Up



Guest Links:Website: http://www.321gold.comWebsite: http://www.321energy.comBooks on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Moriarty/e/B01A9I4TJU?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3&qid;=1599932580&sr;=8-3



Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors' current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds fourteen international aviation records.

Bob Moriarty: China is Taking Control of the Gold Market


Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Axel Merk, CEO of Merk Investments, who manages investments worth $1.2 billion in gold and related assets. They discuss the ASA closed-end fund, which invests in precious metals mining, processing, or exploration companies, and is unique due to its longer-term focus compared to ETFs. Merk took over management in 2019 and transformed it into an investment vehicle for junior mining companies. This fund helps small development and exploration firms by providing capital during funding rounds and increasing their share prices, making them more attractive to larger investors.



Merk also talks about the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policies on gold mining and equities during economic downturns or periods of easing financial conditions. He shares his past predictions for a possible recession in 2023 but acknowledges recessions are unpredictable. Merk believes that gold miners provide value over the long term, despite risks, and stresses the importance of risk assessment.



Axel discusses Saba Capital Management's ongoing attempts to gain control over ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited. If successful, this could negatively impact the mining industry due to potential cost-cutting measures or changes to the fund's mandate. Despite expressing support for ASA as a fund manager, Axel encourages constructive dialogue between all parties. Axel highlights ASA's unique features that make it difficult for activists like Saba to achieve their goals easily. The future implications include continued engagement with Saba or potential liquidation if they gain control, and the importance of shareholder votes in the outcome. Investors are encouraged to stay informed and vote in proxy contests.



Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - ASA Closed End Fund3:42 - Funding for Juniors10:43 - The Monetary Environment15:26 - Fed & Distorted Data17:57 - Recent Moves in Gold20:50 - Closed Vs. Open Funds25:08 - Strategic Investments26:42 - ASA Board Concerns32:16 - SABA Contested Proxy35:10 - A Call to Shareholders37:30 - Friday Apr 26 Vote41:06 - Future for the Fund?44:33 - Wrap Up



Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/AxelMerkWebsite: https://www.merkinvestments.com/Blog Post: https://www.merkinvestments.com/insights-and-reports/2024-03-18Website: https://asaltd.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/axelmerk/detail/recent-activity/Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/4ebpcaew



Axel Merk is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Merk Investments, manager of the Merk Funds.



Founder of the firm bearing his name, Merk is an expert on macro trends. He is a sought-after speaker, contributor, and author; Axel Merk's book, Sustainable Wealth, describes how the greater economic universe works, how it might affect your finances, and how to manage those finances to seek financial stability. Axel Merk holds a B.A. in Economics (magna cum laude) and an M.Sc. in Computer Science from Brown University.



Axel Merk founded Merk Investments in Switzerland in 1994; in 2001, he relocated the business to California. He has grown Merk Investments into an investment advisory firm offering investment funds and advisory services on liquid global markets, including domestic and international equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies.



Axel lives in the San Francisco Bay Area with his wife and their four children. Furthermore, he is a marathon runner and a private pilot.

Lobo Tiggre: The Fed Isn’t Done Breaking Things

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