Locked On Ole Miss Hit - Quick Takes on Ole Miss Rebels Football & Basketball

Three different shows previewed this game this week and all three ended up in the same place without quite meaning to: Auburn cannot beat Ole Miss. Only Ole Miss can beat Ole Miss.

Crain & Cone said it at the top and again at the bottom - it has to be a combination of Ole Miss messing it up and Auburn playing well enough to take advantage, and when you do not have as good of players, every opportunity has to be taken. They pointed at the dropped interception against LSU that turned into an LSU score.

Against Georgia they did not drop it, and Georgia turned it over three times. Same offense, three weeks apart: 192 rushing yards in Athens, 67 against LSU.

Segment two is the one category where Ole Miss is genuinely worse. A prediction show this week had Ole Miss 126th of 138 in explosive pass plays allowed. That is their number, not the school's, and it could not be confirmed against a release. The catch: the same show has Auburn 87th, and only one of these teams has the receivers to punish it.

Aaron Murray, who is on the call Saturday, said the path is to make Ole Miss one-dimensional and put the game on the quarterback - and that Auburn has to win first and second down to do it.

To be fair: give Auburn a lead and the math changes, because they will shorten the game. That is exactly what Georgia allowed.

Which number scares you more? Tell me in the comments.

Locked On Ole Miss Hits - quick takes on the Rebels every weekday. Subscribe and hit the bell. Hotty Toddy.

#OleMiss #HottyToddy #Auburn #SECFootball #AaronMurray #RebelsFootball

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Locked On College Football called Saturday a look-ahead spot. The trap is not Auburn. The trap is that beating Auburn buys Ole Miss nothing at all.

Their host laid it out on Wednesday: Halloween look-ahead week, Georgia eight days later in a third meeting inside 365 days, and a home trap game Ole Miss has to survive or miss the playoff. My answer was that the Texas loss is what removes the trap - you do not stroll into Saturday after giving one away.

Segment two is the résumé math. Beating Auburn does not move you. The win that was supposed to carry this schedule was Louisville, and Louisville is 4-3 with a defense that has struggled all year - call them 8-4 when it is done. That does not carry a two-loss team into the field.

To be fair: their host pushed back and put a two-loss Ole Miss that beats Georgia around seventh or eighth, where teams can pass you. He might be right. It still ends the same way.

What is your number? Tell me in the comments.

Locked On Ole Miss Hits - quick takes on the Rebels every weekday. Subscribe and hit the bell. Hotty Toddy.

#OleMiss #HottyToddy #PeteGolding #Auburn #SECFootball #CFBPlayoff #RebelsFootball

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Auburn's quarterback has a windup — and on the throw Auburn runs most, that windup is a tax Ole Miss gets to collect.

Byrum Brown leads the SEC in quarterback run game, per Pete Golding on Monday. But Locked On Auburn brought up his throwing motion unprompted on our crossover: with that windup, the ball takes a while to get there. Auburn leans harder and harder on quick throws behind the line of scrimmage, out wide — the exact pass that needs a fast release.

Golding described the same picture from the other side: Auburn splits receivers out far enough to create a numbers issue, and the key is creating negative yardage plays early to force obvious passing downs.

Segment two: Auburn has already faced very good corners this season and they have not affected Auburn's games — not because they lost, but because the offense never asked them a question. Their own show said this offense neutralizes elite corner play. So Ole Miss's secondary gets judged on tackling in space, which is exactly what Golding says failed at Texas.

The honest counterweight: Auburn's receivers will run real routes eventually, and that 80-yard arm is sitting right there if Ole Miss loads up on screens.

Who wins it, Ole Miss's tacklers or Auburn's spacing? Tell me in the comments.

Locked On Ole Miss Hits — quick takes on the Rebels every weekday. Subscribe and hit the bell. Hotty Toddy.

#OleMiss #HottyToddy #Auburn #ByrumBrown #SEC #CollegeFootball

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Auburn is not measuring Saturday by the scoreboard, and a team that is not chasing a number is the hardest kind to put away.

On our weekly crossover with Locked On Auburn I asked what a successful season looks like over there. The answer was not a win total. It was wanting to see who this team is and what culture Alex Golesh is building. Their show put 7-5 on the table as acceptable and 7-4 into the Iron Bowl as a good first year.

Segment two: the 38-17 loss to LSU at Jordan-Hare on Oct. 24 does not tell you what you think. Auburn has lost plenty lately — by three, by seven, the heartbreaking kind. Losing by three scores at home is new, and nobody on that roster knows yet how they respond to it.

The honest counterweight: the simplest reading is that LSU is better and Auburn is four and three. Maybe. But the last time nobody gave Auburn a chance they went to Athens and beat the No. 1 team in America — eleven days ago. Their own show also said Auburn's path needs Ole Miss mistakes, not a scheme.

Which Auburn shows up Saturday? Tell me in the comments.

Locked On Ole Miss Hits — quick takes on the Rebels every weekday. Subscribe and hit the bell. Hotty Toddy.

#OleMiss #HottyToddy #Auburn #AlexGolesh #SEC #CollegeFootball #LockedOn

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Pete Golding laid out the entire Auburn game plan at Monday's press conference, and it comes down to one thing: "the key to the drill to me is you got to eliminate the quarterback run game."

Auburn's quarterback has 1,365 passing yards and 8 touchdowns, plus 480 rushing yards and 6 rushing scores, per the school's release. Golding called him a dual threat who leads the SEC in quarterback run game.

The plan: account for him on base downs, create negative yardage plays early, force obvious passing downs, change the coverage picture.

The problem is Golding's own framing. He said the spacing of Auburn's receivers "splits you out of the ballpark, which creates a numbers issue." Load the box for the quarterback and you hand Auburn one-on-ones outside. So the corners play man with elite eye control — and Golding does not feel great about Edwin Joseph this week.

Segment two: DJ Durkin. Golding said Durkin "has always done a really really good job everywhere he's been," with "a lot of familiarity with the system," having "gone against it several different times." That is a head coach saying four days early that the other side has the answers. And Kewan Lacy is out.

The honest counterweight: this secondary took the ball away twice at Texas and Golding said Jalyn Crawford played his best game. And Auburn allows 24.1 points a game and just gave up 38 at home. Knowing a system and stopping it are different jobs.

Which side of that do you trust? Tell me in the comments.

Locked On Ole Miss Hits — quick takes on the Rebels every weekday. Subscribe and hit the bell. Hotty Toddy.

#OleMiss #HottyToddy #PeteGolding #Auburn #KewanLacy #SEC

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

John Fourcade told this show on Monday that Ole Miss's path is simple: "Don't lose another game and you're in." His instinct is defensible. The mechanism underneath it is not.

Segment one: Fourcade said "they're going to pick the 2 teams that come first and second," and that an unbeaten Kentucky is "automatically in." The field stayed at 12 teams for 2026, settled in January and reported by CBS Sports and Yahoo. There is one SEC automatic bid and it belongs to the conference champion regardless of ranking — not to the top two in the standings. Notre Dame takes an at-large if it finishes top 12, and one bid goes to the highest-ranked Group of Six champion.

So a Kentucky team that wins out in conference play and then loses the championship game applies for an at-large like everyone else.

Segment two: Fourcade asked how you leave a 9-3 Ole Miss team out of the playoff. They already did. Two years ago Alabama finished 9-3 ranked 11th and was left out, and Ole Miss finished 9-3 ranked 14th, per The Rebel Walk.

The honest counterweight: Fourcade is right that an SEC team which actually wins out will be ranked high enough that the mechanism never matters. And this resume is not the 2024 resume — a win over Georgia changes the whole sheet.

The first CFP rankings land Tuesday, November 3, three days after the Auburn game.

Where do you think 12 teams leaves Ole Miss? Tell me in the comments.

Locked On Ole Miss Hits — quick takes on the Rebels every weekday. Subscribe and hit the bell. Hotty Toddy.

#OleMiss #HottyToddy #CFP #PeteGolding #SEC #CollegeFootball

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Pete Golding told the entire SEC on Monday that Trinidad Chambliss is going to run the football again. You do not say that by accident four days before kickoff.

First, the backfield without Kewan Lacy. Golding named it in order, unprompted: Makhi Frazier first, then Shekai Mills-Knight, who Golding said is going to have a real opportunity this week, then JT Lindsey and Josh Dye.

Frazier ran for 101 yards on 15 carries against Missouri and, at Texas after Lacy went down, 6 carries for 47 yards including a 34-yard run, per the official box score.

Segment two: why Chambliss stopped running. Golding gave three reasons and only one is about Chambliss. Defenses built plans for him after last year, with spies and coverages that keep eyes on him. He has been working through his progressions on purpose. And there were chances at Texas late where, in Golding's words, hey man, you can outrun them.

Then: I think you'll see a little bit more of that moving forward.

Do you want Chambliss carrying it more on Saturday? Tell me in the comments.

Locked On Ole Miss Hits — quick takes on the Rebels every weekday. Subscribe and hit the bell. Hotty Toddy.

#OleMiss #HottyToddy #Chambliss #KewanLacy #SEC #CollegeFootball

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Pete Golding said on Monday that he works on next year's roster daily, in the middle of a playoff race, and then described the machinery behind it.

There are weekly reports. Golding said they cover retention, the value of the players they have invested in, and what the production and performance look like to this point. He named general manager Austin as owning part of that work.

Then the line worth sitting with: conversations with players who can come back start earlier than they used to, and, in Golding's words, we all know there's other conversations going on.

Segment two: Golding graded his own defense in public and did not reach for a soft word. Very inconsistent. Hit or miss. He got specific about Texas, where 121 rushing yards came after the 10:30 mark of the fourth quarter on basically two plays, and said he is not mad they missed the tackles, he is mad about how they missed them.

He told the team Sunday night and called it a come to Jesus. His words: you show me so many times, I got to believe you.

The honest counterweight: every staff in this league is doing the same roster work, and a coach who was not would be failing at the job. And Golding calls this defense himself, so the grade lands on him too. He said so.

Where do you put the blame for that fourth quarter? Tell me in the comments.

Locked On Ole Miss Hits — quick takes on the Rebels every weekday. Subscribe and hit the bell. Hotty Toddy.

#OleMiss #HottyToddy #PeteGolding #SEC #CollegeFootball #RebelNation

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kewan Lacy left Austin on a cart. Ole Miss does not replace him with one name - it replaces him with a plan, and the most important piece of that plan is the quarterback.

Lacy went down on his sixteenth carry in the third quarter, landing on his left shoulder. Pete Golding said afterward he was in a lot of pain and that it was the same shoulder. There is no official update and this show is not guessing at one.

The room: Makhi Frazier carried six times for forty-seven yards after Lacy went down, including a thirty-four-yard run, and went for 101 against Missouri. Shekai Mills-Knight is the change of pace. Josh Dye and JT Lindsey round it out.

Then the number that matters more: Trinidad Chambliss ran for seven yards on Saturday, his third straight game under ten. When Chambliss is a run threat every back gets an extra blocker. When he is not, defenses play the run straight up.

The honest counterweight: Lacy set the single-season rushing record here with 306 carries, 1,567 yards and 24 touchdowns, and you do not replace that with a committee. But he ran sixteen times for thirty-six yards before he was hurt - the run game was already broken.

Do you want Chambliss carrying it more on Saturday? Comments.

Locked On Ole Miss Hits — quick takes on the Rebels every weekday. Subscribe and hit the bell. Hotty Toddy.

#OleMiss #HottyToddy #KewanLacy #SEC #CollegeFootball #Rebels

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The betting market watched Ole Miss lose in Austin and then made it a two-score favorite at home five days later. That is a rating, not sympathy.

Five days ago Ole Miss was a 3.5-point underdog at Texas. This morning Ole Miss is favored by 13.5 over Auburn with a total of 55.5 and a money line of -530. Those are FanDuel numbers logged in the show's own betting sheet on Sunday, October 25.

Auburn beat Georgia in Athens and then lost at home to LSU by twenty-one. The number is not about Auburn - it is about a program that has won fifteen straight at home, and a head coach whose two losses this season both came on the road.

Then the first College Football Playoff rankings on November 3. Every team in this conference except Georgia and Kentucky already carries two losses or more. That committee is not sorting one great team from the rest; it is sorting two-loss teams by who they beat. Ole Miss gets Georgia at home on November 7.

The honest counterweight: a big home number is a trap, and Ole Miss spent an entire half down 24-3 on Saturday. A first ranking is also not a final ranking.

Where do you have Ole Miss on November 3? Comments.

Locked On Ole Miss Hits — quick takes on the Rebels every weekday. Subscribe and hit the bell. Hotty Toddy.

#OleMiss #HottyToddy #SEC #CollegeFootball #PeteGolding #CFBPlayoff

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.