In June 2026, the US government halted foreign access to Anthropic's Claude Fable 5, marking a turning point in AI geopolitics. Japan, China, and India are now making three fundamentally different strategic bets on AI sovereignty. Japan pursues external dependency with local optimization; China pursues complete self-sufficiency to achieve sanctions immunity; India pursues adaptation layers and arbitrage on US infrastructure. By 2027, external shocks will collapse one of these strategies, with cascading impacts on global markets and supply chains.