Long Story Short

The US men's hockey team won gold for the first time in 40 years. Private credit is making headlines as the next 2008 crisis. And the Rule of 55 might help early retirees access their 401(k)s penalty-free.

Adam and Andy start with the miracle on ice moment, then get into the private credit panic sweeping financial media. Blue Owl's pricing shock revealed a 16% discount between stated value and market value, triggering fears about what's really inside private debt funds. Data from Cliffwater tells a different story: defaults below historical averages, yields hovering around 9%.

Then they explain the Rule of 55, a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency strategy that lets people access 401(k) funds penalty-free between ages 55 and 59½. 

Finally, Adam breaks down estimated taxes and why $1.3 billion in underpayment penalties hit high earners in 2024, triple the 2021 amount.

⏱️ Timestamps: 

• (1:31) Intro: US Olympic hockey gold after 40 years

• (3:42) Private credit making headlines as the next crisis

• (7:12) Blue Owl pricing shock: 16% discount revealed

• (10:19) Cliffwater data: Yields above 9%, defaults below normal

• (14:09) Rule of 55 explained: Break glass in case of emergency

• (18:00) When does using the Rule of 55 actually make sense?

• (19:35) Downsides: Lost tax-deferred growth and potential higher tax brackets

• (22:26) Estimated taxes: $1.3 billion in penalties for high earners in 2024

• (27:45) Two safe harbors: 90% of current year or 100-110% of prior year

• (29:40) Projecting tax liability with variable income sources

• (37:37) Podcast disclosures

Resources:

Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast

Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement 

Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ 

Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ 

Alex Shen’s post about Private Credit | www.linkedin.com/posts/alexshen7_more-cockroaches-dont-hold-your-breath-activity-7431549039994843136-9jpB

Wall Street Journal Article: “Estimated Taxes Are a Pain. Here's How to Avoid Costly Penalties” | www.wsj.com/personal-finance/taxes/estimated-taxes-are-a-pain-heres-how-to-avoid-costly-penalties-d71cf00d

Cliffwater: New Private Credit Data Contradicts the Recent Risk Narrative | https://cliffwater.com/ResourceArticle/new-private-credit-data-contradicts-the-recent-risk-narrative?docId=30429 

Cliffwater: After Misstep, Blue Owl Gets It Right, Unlike the Press | https://cliffwater.com/ResourceArticle/after-misstep-blue-owl-gets-it-right-unlike-the-press?docId=30427 

#PrivateCredit #RetirementPlanning #TaxPlanning #WealthManagement

The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

A viral essay claimed AI is taking over knowledge jobs right now, not in the future. Elon Musk said retirement planning is irrelevant for anyone retiring 10+ years from now. And Trump accounts launched with a free $1,000 for qualified children.

Adam and Andy break down the AI panic sweeping through feeds this week, starting with Matt Shumer's "Something Big is Happening" essay that got 50-60 million views. They question whether comparing AI to the internet sets an impossibly high bar, examine why Apple hasn't spent anything on AI CapEx while competitors race to build empires, and discuss whether this is genuine transformation or tech CEO posturing.

Then they talk through Elon's claim that AI will make costs drop to nearly zero and work optional. Adam explains why planning is about creating certainty in an uncertain world, not betting on utopian predictions. Finally, they touch on Trump accounts and why (outside the free $1,000 for children born 2025-2028) there are better tools like 529 plans and UTMA accounts for saving for kids.

⏱️ Timestamps: 

(0:00) Intro: Parenting as AI model training

(1:26) Snowboarding & Feedback Loops: How kids (and models) learn in the wild

(4:12) "Something Big is Happening": Analyzing Matt Shumer’s viral AI essay

(6:50) The Great AI Debate: Polar opposite views from the CFA Institute dinner

(8:25) The Internet Benchmark: Is AI truly as transformative as the web?

(9:19) AI CapEx & The Mag Seven: Why Apple is the notable outlier in spending

(11:00) Elon Musk’s Prediction: Is retirement planning officially irrelevant?

(12:46) The Strategy of Certainty: Why we plan for the "uncertain world"

(15:06) The Musk Track Record: A look at past predictions vs. reality

(19:23) Trump Accounts 101: New savings vehicles and the $5,000 limit

(23:47) Alternatives to Trump Accounts: What’s the best option?

(28:22) The Flexibility Trap: UTMA accounts vs. parental discretion

Resources:

Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast

Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement 

Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ 

Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ 

Matt Schumer’s Essay “Something Big Is Happening” | https://shumer.dev/something-big-is-happening 

Ep 22: Teaching Kids About Money, Social Security Strategy & Year-End Giving | https://burneywealth.com/podcast/teaching-kids-money-social-security-strategy-long-story-short-episode-22 

#AI #RetirementPlanning #TaxPlanning #WealthManagement

The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

Markets hit all-time highs while major stocks crashed. Bitcoin dropped nearly 50%. And clients are asking a big question: where should I actually withdraw money from in retirement?

Adam and Andy break down the bizarre market rotation where the S&P 500 sits less than 1% from all-time highs while Netflix, Coinbase, and Adobe are down 40-60%. They explain why this is healthy, whether the shift from growth to value has staying power, and what AI as a headwind (instead of tailwind) means for software stocks.

Then they discuss the withdrawal order puzzle. Should you pull from taxable accounts first, or IRAs to limit RMDs, or Roth because you hate taxes? The answer depends entirely on when you retire, how your assets are distributed across account types, and what flexibility you want to preserve.

⏱️ Timestamps:

• (1:36) Intro: Super Bowl recap and market excitement
• (4:02) Markets near all-time highs while growth stocks crash
• (5:24) What's working: the shift from growth to value
• (7:36) Is this rotation to value a head fake or sustainable?
• (10:34) Bitcoin down nearly 50% from the peak
• (11:26) Crypto volatility: it cuts both ways
• (13:29) The withdrawal order puzzle: where should you pull retirement income from?
• (15:10) Retiring at 55 vs. retiring at 70: completely different situations
• (18:18) The importance of flexibility and diversification across tax types
• (19:36) Customizing your retirement investing strategy over time
• (23:33) Winter Olympics overconfidence check: what event could you finish?
• (26:14) Podcast disclosures

Resources:

Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn

Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin

Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn

#InvestmentStrategy #RetirementPlanning #TaxPlanning #WealthManagement

The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

What happens when someone who actually worked at the Fed joins the podcast? We brought in Hannah Sheldon, our firm’s newest research analyst and former Fed policy analyst, to break down Kevin Warsh's nomination as the next Fed chair.

Hannah explains what Warsh's inflation hawk history means for interest rates, why shrinking the Fed's balance sheet could shake things up, and how his views on AI as disinflationary might give him room to cut rates. Then Adam and Andy discuss silver's sudden crater (classic bubble behavior) and finish with a deep dive into stress testing your retirement plan.

⏱️ Timestamps: 

• (1:14) Intro: Big news on the Fed chair nomination

• (2:18) Welcoming Hannah Sheldon, former Fed policy analyst

• (3:38) What should we make of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair?

• (4:46) Changes we might expect: shrinking the Fed's balance sheet

• (6:14) Why reducing the balance sheet contradicts cutting rates

• (7:29) Squaring Warsh's inflation hawk history with pledges to cut rates

• (9:03) The Fed's core job: dual mandate explained

• (10:13) What Warsh thinks about unemployment and AI's impact

• (11:23) Hannah's take: expect strong market performance

• (13:07) Pivoting to silver's big collapse & the nature of commodities

• (17:04) How to decide if you should take part in the latest hot investment trend

• (18:22) Tier one money and avoiding speculation with essential capital

• (19:33) How to stress test your tier one bucket

• (22:20) Planning for healthcare: the quarter million per spouse rule

• (24:31) Conservative assumptions: lower returns, higher inflation

• (25:28) Sequence of return risk & asset allocation as a tool against it

• (29:38) Preview: Trump accounts coming next week

• (30:46) Podcast disclosures

Resources:

Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement 

Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ 

Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ 

Follow Hannah Sheldon on Linkedin | https://www.linkedin.com/in/hannah-sheldon-311a31130/ 

Ep #31: Social Security, AI Investing & When Growth Shifts to Protection | https://burneywealth.com/blog/ss-ai-investing-protection-long-story-short-episode-31  

#FederalReserve #RetirementPlanning #InvestmentStrategy #WealthManagement

The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

Social Security going broke? AI stocks too hot to handle? Wondering when you should stop chasing growth and start protecting what you've built?

Adam and Andy discuss three questions they're hearing frequently from clients right now. First, they break down what "going broke" actually means for Social Security (it's not as dire as the headlines make it sound). Then they throw cold water on the AI investment frenzy and explain why you're probably already more exposed than you think. Finally, they introduce a framework for thinking about when your portfolio should shift from growth mode to protection mode.

⏱️ Timestamps: 

• (1:09) Intro: Three client questions about Social Security, AI, and portfolio protection

• (1:32) Will Social Security run out of money?

• (5:25) Three solutions Congress might consider to fix the funding gap

• (10:38) Should you invest more heavily in AI right now?

• (17:32) When should protecting wealth become more important than growing it?

• (20:08) Defining tier one capital: your "don't screw it up" money

• (22:15) What tier two capital is and how to think about it differently

• (30:00) Podcast disclosures

Resources:

Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement 

Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ 

Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ 

#RetirementPlanning #SocialSecurity #InvestmentStrategy #WealthManagement

The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

The quarterly webinar live Q&A session covered the topics clients care about most right now. Adam and Andy spent 30 minutes answering questions on international investing, market volatility, tariffs, Bitcoin, gold, and what to expect in 2026.

International stocks dominated the questions. Clients wanted to know how Burney accesses these markets (through funds with on-the-ground analysts), whether the 20-30% allocation still makes sense (yes), and how tariffs affect international performance (April's selloff showed international stocks held up better than U.S. markets).

Volatility questions came next, triggered by the week's 2% down day. Andy provided benchmarks: expect dozens of 1-2% down days yearly, one 10% correction per year, and a 20% bear market every four to five years. Volatility isn't a warning sign. It's the cost of stock returns.

Bitcoin and gold both came up. Andy explained why crypto remains speculative despite the recent drop from $130,000 to $90,000 (multiple 90% drawdowns in its history). Gold's strong 2025 performance looks tempting, but it still fails portfolio optimization tests.

Adam tackled AI investment concerns, noting the strong earnings growth happening outside AI stocks. Tax changes from the Big Beautiful Bill got attention too. The new SALT caps and senior deductions are creating stimulus most people haven't noticed yet.

⏱️ Timestamps: 

• (00:35) Introduction to webinar Q&A format

• (01:35) International investing strategies: Funds vs. individual stocks

• (04:52) Are developed foreign markets better short-term investments?

• (06:30) Tariffs and international performance: The April lesson

• (08:38) Trump's Greenland threats: Distraction or market mover?

• (10:29) Economic slowdowns in Russia & Iran

• (11:46) Best way to access international stocks for 2026

• (14:55) What to make of market volatility

• (17:24) Yesterday's 2% selloff in perspective

• (18:52) Is now a good time to invest in Bitcoin?

• (20:52) Gold stocks soaring: Should you chase the trend?

• (24:16) Tax changes in 2026 and market impact

• (27:56) Why small caps lag large caps

• (29:39) AI investment slowdown concerns

• (33:13) First quarter 2026 expectations

• (35:43) Podcast disclosures

Resources:

Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement 

Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ 

Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ 

Understanding the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA): What High Net Worth Families Need to Know | https://burneywealth.com/blog/understanding-the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act 

Have questions you want answered on the podcast? Email [email protected].

#InternationalInvesting #MarketVolatility #TaxPlanning #Bitcoin #WealthManagement

The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

The headlines around Morningstar's updated safe withdrawal rate study sent many retirees into a panic. The so-called "4% rule" just became the "3.9% rule," which sounds like a rounding error worth ignoring. But Adam breaks down why the assumptions behind that number matter much more than the headline itself.

The conversation moves to estate planning and an interesting Wall Street Journal piece about a billionaire who holds quarterly family meetings to review finances and estate plans. That level of transparency might not work for everyone, but the principle applies across wealth levels: communication prevents chaos. Nobody wants their family scrambling to piece together accounts and passwords after a loss.

The discussion wraps with the Federal Reserve drama that dominated headlines over the weekend. While the DOJ investigation into Jerome Powell grabbed attention, markets barely flinched. Sometimes the most dramatic headlines deliver the least market impact.

We cover:

• Why Morningstar's 3.9% withdrawal rate assumes things most retirees don't actually do
• The hidden assumptions: 30-50% equity allocation and linear spending for 30 years
• How spending flexibility could push safe withdrawal rates closer to 5.5-6%
• Why quarterly family money meetings (billionaire style) might be overkill, but annual estate plan reviews aren't
• The minimum conversation every couple needs to have about where things are
• Federal Reserve independence, DOJ investigations, and why markets yawned
• Andy’s basement renovation indicator as a bear market predictor

⏱️ Timestamps:

• (01:06) Kindergarten milestones and birthday party economics
• (02:36) Safe retirement withdrawal rates: Unpacking Morningstar's study
• (12:33) Estate planning lessons: The billionaire's quarterly family money meeting
• (20:24) Federal Reserve drama: DOJ, Jerome Powell, and Fed independence
• (29:21) Podcast disclosures

Resources:

Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn

Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin

Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn

Morningstar: The State of Retirement Income for 2026

Wall Street Journal Article: Why This Billionaire Holds a Family Meeting About Money Once a Quarter?

#RetirementPlanning #WithdrawalRates #EstatePlanning #FederalReserve #WealthManagement

The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

In this look back at 2025, Adam and Andy break down the charts and trends that defined the year. From international equities quietly outperforming U.S. stocks by nearly double, to gold unexpectedly beating Bitcoin, the year delivered some surprises most investors missed.

They discuss why bonds finally delivered the returns investors have been waiting for since 2022, what drove the massive AI infrastructure spending boom, and why India's exceptional 2024 performance turned into a flat 2025. The conversation also covers the resiliency of the U.S. economy, including Q3's decade-high GDP growth that caught everyone off guard.

We cover:

• Why international equities pushed 30% while getting little attention

• Gold outperforming Bitcoin (who had that on their bingo card?)

• The cautionary tale of India's performance flip from 2024 to 2025

• How bonds normalized after the brutal 2022 selloff

• Record GDP growth in Q3 2025 and what it means

• The staggering AI infrastructure spending numbers from Big Tech

• Tax cuts creating stimulus most people haven't fully appreciated

• Biggest risks for 2026: AI expectations and cybersecurity threats

⏱️ Timestamps: 

• ((01:26) Happy New Year and personal highlights from 2025

• (02:20) Market recap: The round trip year with near-bear market drama

• (04:25) International equities quietly dominated 2025

• (05:40) Gold beats Bitcoin: The commodity surprise of the year

• (10:51) India's cautionary tale: From hero to zero

• (12:17) The bond market comeback story

• (17:20) U.S. economy resilience: Q3's decade-high GDP growth

• (18:49) AI infrastructure spending reaches staggering levels

• (20:52) Tax cuts creating underappreciated stimulus for 2026

• (25:36) Biggest risks for 2026: AI payoff and cybersecurity

• (29:49) Closing thoughts

• (30:13) Podcast disclosures

Resources:

Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement 

Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ 

Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ 

Understanding the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA): What High Net Worth Families Need to Know | https://burneywealth.com/blog/understanding-the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act 

Ep #26: Protecting Your Wealth: A Cybersecurity Guide with Max Alles | https://burneywealth.com/blog/cybersecurity-guide-max-alles-long-story-short-episode-26 

#2025Review #MarketRecap #InternationalStocks #BondMarket #WealthManagement

The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

Welcome to 2026. In this episode, Adam and Andy kick off the new year by breaking down the financial housekeeping tasks you should tackle in January, plus key tax law changes taking effect this year.

They also address the question everyone's asking: Can this bull market keep going? Adam walks through historical data showing that the current 38-month, 90% rally is actually quite average compared to past bull markets that lasted 130+ months with gains exceeding 500%.

We cover:

• Financial housekeeping for the new year (savings, spending, risk assessment)

• New charitable giving deductions for non-itemizers

• Changes to itemized charitable deductions based on AGI

• Affordable Care Act subsidy uncertainty heading into 2026

• Estate tax exemption increase to $15 million per person

• Historical bull market data and what it tells us about 2026

• Key trends to watch: International stocks, AI development, growth vs. value rotation

• Why midterm elections shouldn't drive your investment decisions

⏱️ Timestamps: 

• (01:30) Happy New Year and financial housekeeping tips

• (06:47) Changes to charitable giving deductions in 2026

• (09:50) Affordable Care Act tax subsidy uncertainty

• (11:28) Estate tax exemption increases to $15 million

• (13:10) Can the stock market keep going higher?

• (18:07) Historical bull market data puts 2026 in perspective

• (20:33) Themes for 2026: AI, international stocks, and value rotation

• (25:05) How the new Fed chair and midterm elections factor in

• (28:12) Podcast disclosures

Resources:

Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement 

Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ 

Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ 

#2026Outlook #MarketOutlook #TaxPlanning #BullMarket #WealthManagement

The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.