Longriver Podcast

I spoke with Brian Mushonga and James Hull, co-Founders of the Caledon Energy Transition Fund, about their backgrounds, their partnership and their investment strategy.

We used Vertiv Holdings as a case study, touching on its history and development into one of the world’s leading power and thermal management suppliers to the data centre; its Chairman and his track record at Honeywell; its sales composition; and its role as a key supplier to the ongoing AI capex boom.

Finally, we discussed how Brian and James approach valuing cyclical stocks; how they overcome anchoring bias; and what could kill the boom.

I spoke with Daye Deng (邓达业), author of the East Asia Stock Insights substack, about the Chinese sportswear industry and two of its leading players, Anta and Li Ning.

We began with Daye's background as a Chinese person growing up in Japan and then Canada; his career as a buyside investor; and why he's now devoting his time to companies in East Asia.

We then discussed the trends driving Chinese consumers' interest in sportswear; what makes sportswear companies good businesses; the rise and travails of China's homegrown sportswear companies; Li Ning and Anta's origin stories; Anta's success with a multi-brand strategy; the two companies distinct cultures; their corporate governance issues; the persistence of fierce inventory cycles in the Chinese market; and Anta's investment in Amer Sports, a holding company which owns Arc'teryx, Salomon, Wilson and other brands.

My guest is Jesus Rodriguez, author of the Dungeon Investing substack, where he writes about miniatures, video games, tabletop games, comics, RPGs and investing.

In this conversation, we discuss Games Workshop, owner, designer and manufacturer of the Warhammer and Warhammer 40K range of miniatures. Jesús walks us through the company's rise-fall-and-rebirth to explain how its history shaped its culture. We then explore the trade-offs inherent in GW's hype-driven business model; the operational complexity and diseconomies of scale this creates; management's slow embrace of IP content; and the company's potential for growth.

If you'd like to read more of Jesús' work, I highly recommend starting here:

Analysis of Games Workshop (2017)

Games Workshop: A look into the future (2023)

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

My guest is Ali Gündüz, a private investor from Berlin who closely follows Evolution AB, the Swedish B2B gambling services company. In this conversation, we discuss what we perceive as Evolution's key issues, including increasing competition; its dependence on Asian markets to sustain its growth; the slow roll-out of game shows in the US; its difficulties in RNG; and its need for a more consistent capital allocation policy.

You can find Ali on Twitter at @gnufs. He also shares his analysis publicly at www.dontdistribute.com, including quarterly updates on Evolution.

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

My guest is Ethan Robertson, host of Wheelsboy, the leading English-language automotive reviewer in China, about China's Cambrian Explosion of New Energy Vehicle manufacturers, their intense competition for relevance, and how they stack up against Western and Japanese firms, including Tesla.

Wheelsboy produces the best car reviews I’ve ever watched and if you like this interview, you must check out their YouTube channel. Their most popular video is a review of the Hongqi H9, The Chinese S-Class that looks like a Rolls-Royce and Drives like a…

Some of my favourite videos are:

Hengchi 5: How $300 Billion In Debt And The World's Top Auto Designers Created A Mediocre Car

The World's Cheapest EV Convertible Is Delightfully Awful (Wuling MINI EV Cabrio)

Gaze Upon The Face Of The Trumpchi M8 And Tremble!

MG Cyberster: MG Is Back, Baby!

New School vs Old School- Li Auto L9 vs BMW X7

My guest is Shreekkanth Viswanathan ("Shree"), Founder and Portfolio Manager of SVN Capital, a Chicago, USA-based investment manager. In this conversation, we briefly cover Shree's background, how spirituality helps him keep his ego in check and the importance of serendipity, before diving into a discussion of Kinsale Capital, one of his portfolio holdings.

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

My guest is Wayne Jones, co-Founder and Portfolio Manager of the Ganes Focused Value Fund, a Brisbane, Australia, based investment manager. In this conversation, we cover how Wayne has built his eclectic circle of competence over time; and then dive into the challenges facing Domino's Pizza Enterprises, one of his long-term holdings.

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

Following the publication of the sixth edition of Pillar Legal's primer on the regulation of China's gaming industry, I spoke with Charles Yu (俞超), a partner at the firm and head of its Shanghai office.  Our conversation put 2021's regulatory campaign into the broader context of the Chinese government's struggle to combat gaming addiction; the "murky" process for new games to be licensed; the challenges of maintaining digital privacy; how the policy has turned to be supportive again; and how Chinese firms have responded by setting their sights on overseas markets.  

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

I spoke with Rob Sheridan, Founder of Uluwatu Limited, a Hong Kong based investment manager about how he's using his experience working at Global Endowment Management and Ward Ferry to identify the companies which will matter the most in Asia over the coming decades. We talked about Rob's career and road to Hong Kong; how he developed his investment process; the importance in long term investing of underwriting good management teams; portfolio construction; and how he keeps himself honest in the short term. We tied everything together at the end with a case study of freee kk, a Japanese ERP software provider.

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

My guest today is Dr. Daan Steenkamp, CEO of startup Codera Analytics and formerly Lead Economist and Head of the Research Unit at the South African Reserve Bank.  We tackle two big topics: 1) the difference between demand- and supply-side shocks to the economy; why central banks were slow to recognise inflation; and what it may take to re-anchor inflation expectations; and 2) how Codera is applying automation and machine learning tools from software development to economic forecasting; the difference between traditional economic models and machine learning models; and the importance of narrative in economic forecasting.  You can follow Daan @daan_steenkamp or via the Codera blog.

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.