The Middle East is changing. In the past couple of years, peace treaties have been signed between Arab countries and Israel. New investment and trade relationships are emerging based on economics, not religion. The threat of war between Shia and Sunni is no longer in the headlines. Western powers, especially the United States, seem to be fading from the scene.

Almost more amazing than any of that, in December more than 700,000 Saudi kids participated in a four-day rave in the Saudi desert with regular intermissions for Islamic prayers. What's going on? Has the Middle East of strict Islam suddenly turned into something more modern? Have the Arabs figured out how to move beyond religious conflict? In a world that wants to abandon hydrocarbons, are the Arabs just enjoying the last party before their world collapses?

What happens as foreign powers become spectators rather than actors? Can the locals actually find the peace and prosperity that has eluded them for so long?

Neil Quilliam is a deeply knowledgeable, experienced expert in the region. He has been engaged with the politics, economics and societies of the Middle East and North Africa for decades: today from his perch at Chatham House in London and earlier through his service in the UK's Foreign and Commonwealth Office and his history of living in, working on and studying the Gulf and the Levant.