Participating in any market bubble can be lots of fun. Making money and watching your portfolio grow quickly is music to every investors ears. But what about when you recognise the market is getting or is in a bubble. What should you do?Should you join in? Sell out and wait in cash? Find alternative stocks?Ignore the bubble and forge on? In this episode, Pete and Steve discuss how you should invest when markets are looking bubbly and what options are available to investors to profit and not get caught up and suffer investment losses.All these questions are important for you to make successful investment decisions over the long term.Thanks for listening!Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcastPete Wargentwww.petewargent.com/www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/Stephen Moriartytwitter.com/SGM63

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Market bubbles are generally thought of as overall negative events because when they burst they leave behind a lot of sad investors who are nursing heavy losses. Once the bubble bursts, investor get a change to survey the damage. But most clouds have a silver lining if you look hard enough. In this episode. Pete and Steve discuss what happens after the bubble bursts and whether there is any good to come from them. And what lessons can investors, both new and old learn from market bubbles. Thanks for listening!Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcastPete Wargentwww.petewargent.com/www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/Stephen Moriartytwitter.com/SGM63

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In today's episode we discussed some of the characteristics of a bubble, and how they can be identified.We discussed several warning signs, including the following:-Valuation metrics become redundant -No price too high!-Technical analysis starts at high valuations-Investor profile: a surfeit of new young men coming into the market -A sharp rise in the use of leverageWe also discussed why it's difficult to pick the top. Books/articles referencedDavid EinhornBuchananCapital cycle theoryBuffett at Sun Valley article Thanks for listening!Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcastPete Wargentwww.petewargent.com/www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/Stephen Moriartytwitter.com/SGM63

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The excessive bubbles of history took a great economic situation and extrapolated it into the future, based on an assumption that today’s perfect conditions will continue.We find there are bubbles in all asset classes – property, stocks, art, basically any area where people trade.Jeremy Grantham recently said - “We are in a bubble,” “but it is unlike any other.”Everything is overpriced, he said, but there is no way to say when they will peak.To call that peak, it is useful to look for signs of “crazy” behaviour.In this episode, we ask what is a bubble? Is there any agreement on what constitutes a bubble? Are there any similar characteristics?We also discuss bubbles across countries, industry sectors and of course individual companies.Thanks for listening!Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcastPete Wargentwww.petewargent.com/www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/Stephen Moriartytwitter.com/SGM63

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In this week’s episode we discuss:-The ‘risk hierarchy’ of investing and why individual companies can carry the greatest risk-Why systematic structural advantages can lead to investment success-Porter’s 5 forces versus Greenwald: which model is better-Monopolies and oligopolies – supply versus demand-industry specific models-other simple models for finding valueOther simple models - EV/EBIT (Carlisle), 52 Week Low (Wiley), Low P/E (Dreman/Neff) Net Nets (Graham), - discuss benefits of each. Bottom 3 ETFs is a pretty simple and effective modelBooks mentioned:Jonathan Tepper – The Myth of CapitalismBruce Greenwald and Judd Kahn – Competition Demystified Tobias E. Carlisle – The Acquirer’s Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the MarketThanks for listening!Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’https://www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcastPete Wargenthttps://www.petewargent.com/https://www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/Stephen Moriartyhttps://twitter.com/SGM63

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In this week’s episode we discuss:-industry cycles and why they repeat-industry CAPE ratios-why supply matters as well as demand-focussing on statistics over stories-a very simple method for investing in sector ETFs! Books mentioned:Geoffrey West – ScaleJonathan Tepper – The Myth of CapitalismJames O’Shaughnessy – What Works on Wall StreetEdward Chancellor – Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital CycleJeremy Siegel – The Future for Investors: Why the Tried and the True Triumph over the Bold and the NewThanks for listening!Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’https://www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcastPete Wargenthttps://www.petewargent.com/https://www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/Stephen Moriartyhttps://twitter.com/SGM63

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In this week’s episode we discuss:-which model is best for the stock market? Which model reflects the true reality?-what is capital growth theory?-why it’s best to think dynamically and to take an active approach-why EMH is best for financial advisors, but not for you-our 8 timeless principles and how they work as a model-are markets random? How best to cope with randomness-how to adjust your approach as the environment changesThanks for listening!Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’https://www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcastPete Wargenthttps://www.petewargent.com/https://www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/Stephen Moriartyhttps://twitter.com/SGM63

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In this week’s episode we discuss:-Why every investor has a favourite model for achieving superior returns-Characteristics of the different ways to invest: fundamental, technical, or quant-Why simple models outperform the complex-Correlation and complexity: why it’s so hard to weight variables to stock market returns-Investing over different timeframes-Which model is best for you and your personality types-The greatest investors and their commonalitiesThanks for listening!Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’https://www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcastPete Wargenthttps://www.petewargent.com/https://www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/Stephen Moriartyhttps://twitter.com/SGM63

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In this week’s episode we discuss systematic simplicity, and how more moving parts can mean that there are more things to go wrong.Here’s what we cover and discuss:•Why discounted cashflow calculations are difficult•What’s the best way to value a company?•How the great investors can end up with simple systems and variables•Do computers add any value for investors?•Why simple doesn’t mean thoughtless•Some simple models for investing•Calm and circumspect: how systems can reduce emotional reactions•Repeating behavioural investing•Good decades and not-so-good decades•Why are investors drawn to complexity?•Our 8 timeless principles for investingBooks referred to:Ben Graham - Security AnalysisBen Carlson – A Wealth of Common SenseBen Graham – The Intelligent InvestorJames Montier – Value InvestingThanks for listening!Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’https://www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcastPete Wargent:www.petewargent.com/www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/Stephen Moriarty:twitter.com/SGM63

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In this week’s episode we discuss:-our earliest experiences in stocks: stock tips and speculation! -how to formulate a systematic approach-the historical composition of returns from stocks: dividends and capital growth-are dividends better than capital gains?-Australia and franking credits-US stocks and share buybacks etc-worrying less about capital gains tax-capital growth theory and the Kelly CriterionThanks for listening!Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’https://www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcastPete Wargenthttps://www.petewargent.com/https://www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/Stephen Moriartyhttps://twitter.com/SGM63

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