Macro ESG: markets, politics, and technology for a sustainable future with Greg Beier

Macro ESG: markets, politics, and technology for a sustainable future with Greg Beier

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Macro ESG: markets, politics, and technology for a sustainable future with Greg Beier episodes

  • Global Investing Post-Trump
    Macro ESG is calling the election definitively for Biden. While this is a clarion call for the US, its equity market leadership echos throughout the world and will shape corporate and national priorities for the next three decades.
    What is the investment opportunity?
    Growth will be in renewables, public health, technology privacy, education, infrastructure, basic materials, micro-agriculture, and affordable housing.
    Decline will be in military spending, corporate jets, ultra-luxury brands, financials, hydrocarbons, consumer finance, social media, online shopping, and cellular services.
    Markets will be positive post 2021, but as interest rates have hit bottom, it will be real growth, not empty liquidity-driven growth. www.macroESG.com #macroESG
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    6 min
  • Emerging Market FX Whipsaw Trap & USD Equity Bust Risk
    The risk to EM FX is that the USD pops-up hard into a flight to quality on a stock market drop – which is what happened today. If this continues, everyone funding leveraged carry trades in thin EM FX will bail out hard in one direction, only to have the USD reverse and go DOWN WITH the US equity market once it overshoots - generating wild, whipsaw moves - and potentially devastating losses for investors. A new trade war is reigniting a whole set of old anxieties. www.macroESG.com #macroESG
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    5 min
  • Is George Floyd’s Death Killing the Dollar?
    As clearly seen on the US Dollar Index chart, Mr. Floyd’s death on May 25th (plus the domestic and international protests it triggered) sparked a remarkably clear decline in the US dollar. The stunning call by President Trump on June 1st for the military to “dominate” America’s streets which was even more astonishing when Secretary of Defense Esper declined his request the next day.
    These developments are putting the US dollar’s institutional credibility at risk - exactly when trade and fiscal deficits are accelerating. Moreover, the OECD announced today that the negotiations on a digital sales tax are faltering and could result in the US getting into a global trader war with multiple countries. www.macroESG.com #macroESG
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    6 min
  • How Bad Public Data Isn't Just Anti-Sustainability – It’s Also Anti-Growth
    International investors should consider tilting their portfolio weightings on just this one factor – to what extent does the government collect, analyze, and implement policy around public data. This could become an essential metric that drives the analysis for equities and debt around sustainability as well as growth at the macro ESG level. www.macroESG.com #macroESG
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    9 min
  • Covid Caution Note
    Boston’s most eminent intensive care hospitals’ epidemiological forecasts are expecting a return of the coronavirus pandemic in July in the United States, beginning in the states that opened up first and then moving through the rest of the country to the states that opened up later.  
    I consider their view credible and urge caution.
    www.macroESG.com #macroESG
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    5 min
  • How China and the EU Come Out on Top in the US versus Russia and Saudi Arabia Crude Oil Battle
    American crude oil for Belarus reached the EU on Friday while the OPEC+ petrostates agreed to extend production cuts for a month on Saturday. Oil prices are likely to stay up till August when the full shut-in capacity of the US shale producers is back online, which will force OPEC+ to drive oil prices lower. Low oil prices will be positive for emerging stock markets but a drag on their leap to a carbon free future. The rich EU will lead the world in a Green Recovery, independent from petro-politics. And China will likely come out on top and take aim to sink the US dollar. www.macroESG.com #macroESG
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    13 min
  • Self-Sufficient Micro Agriculture Boom - part 2
    In yesterday’s initial blue-water think piece about the coming boom in self-sufficient micro agriculture, I failed to make it clear just how pervasive this trend will be across the world.
    Every nation, rich or poor, will become much more focused on food production and freshwater conservation. www.macroESG.com #macroESG
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    5 min
  • Self-Sufficient Micro Agriculture Boom
    In capitols around the world, technocrats are quietly asking themselves how much food they can produce domestically and become agriculturally self-sufficient.
    This may be the biggest, lasting structural change that comes from the coronavirus crisis in both the developing and developed countries.
    Food is no longer a poor country issue.
    Food is a Power Issue
    www.macroESG.com #macroESG
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    4 min
  • As Brazil Burns… Will Lula Come Back?

    Brazilian elites got rid of Lula because he spent vast sums of public money on the public, reducing what they could purloin to maintain their systems of patronage.  

    Bolsonaro’s failed management of the public health crisis could be so bad that they bring Lula back.

    @macroesg #macroesg www.macroesg.com @gregbeier

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    10 min
  • Clearly, Chinese Shares Will be Delisted in the US – Alibaba?

    Given that the US government is unifying politically against China in a way that will likely stay unified, I believe that the Chinese companies will be delisted in the end.

    American elites are starting to feel threatened by China, in part because of the coronavirus pandemic, so they are joining together in a solid coalition to take on China.

    @macroesg #macroesg www.macroESG.com 

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    6 min

About Macro ESG: markets, politics, and technology for a sustainable future with Greg Beier

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We analyze the risks of markets, politics, and technology for a sustainable future.