Macro Morning

October payrolls rose by 165,000 and the unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent, according to the BLS. U.S. stocks swung sharply through Friday's close, and the Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4 percent.

Alex:
Good morning, Mia!

Mia:
Morning, Alex. Happy Monday. Did you win the fight with your alarm clock?

Alex:
Barely. I beat it to the coffee maker, so I'm calling that a win.

Mia:
Oh come on, a narrow victory. I'm on my first cup too. It is very November out there.

Alex:
Dark when you wake up, and the sun is still hitting snooze.

Mia:
The sun is out of office until further notice.

Alex:
Okay, please hold, your daylight will be with you shortly.

Mia:
Okay, let's do this before the coffee wears off.

Alex:
Welcome to Macro Morning, your daily macro and markets briefing for ETF investors, built from official sources like the Fed, the Treasury, and the B.L.S. It's Monday, November ninth. I'm Alex.

Mia:
And I'm Mia. We've got a lot to cover since Tuesday. Alex, thirty seconds. What's the one thing that matters most for an ETF investor today?

Alex:
Friday's jobs report. The B.L.S. said employers added one hundred sixty-five thousand jobs in October, and the unemployment rate held at four point one percent. That is well above the average monthly gain of forty-eight thousand over the prior twelve months.

Mia:
Wait, wait—and markets did not treat the rest of the week like a quiet study hall.

Alex:
Not even close. Stocks rallied on Wednesday, then Thursday the S and P five hundred dropped more than four percent and the Nasdaq Composite fell about five and a half percent. Friday they steadied a bit, and the Bank of England raised its Bank Rate to four percent.

Mia:
Quick note on timing. U.S. markets were closed Saturday and Sunday, and Monday's cash session has not opened yet, so the stock, bond, and ETF numbers we'll use are Friday, November sixth closes, from Nasdaq's public market data and from FRED.

Alex:
Good call. Official daily oil prices only run through Tuesday, November third, because that Energy Information Administration series lags a few sessions. And as always, this is general information, not investment advice.

Mia:
Alright, stocks first.

Alex:
Section one, stocks. The path mattered as much as the finish. On Wednesday, according to FRED, the Dow jumped about three percent, to fifty-three thousand, three hundred fifty-six. The S and P five hundred rose about one point six percent, to seven thousand, six hundred eighty-nine. The Nasdaq Composite gained about one point four percent.

Mia:
Wednesday felt like a relief rally. And then Thursday happened.

Alex:
Then Thursday happened. The S and P five hundred fell four point four percent, to seven thousand, three hundred fifty-four. That's FRED's latest official close for that index, because Friday's S and P print is not in FRED yet. The Dow dropped about three point four percent, to fifty-one thousand, five hundred twenty-three. The Nasdaq Composite slid five point five percent, to twenty-four thousand, three hundred fifteen.

Mia:
Five and a half percent in one day. That's not a dip. That's a trap door.

Alex:
The Nasdaq-one-hundred fell about six point four percent on Thursday. The chip ETF, S.M.H., dropped about eleven percent. The technology sector ETF, X.L.K., fell eight percent. And the iShares Korea ETF, E.W.Y., a chip-heavy country fund, sank about thirteen and a half percent.

Mia:
The chips didn't just cool off. They power-cycled.

Alex:
I was going to say they hit an emergency shutoff.

Mia:
Oh come on. Four out of ten. You're warming up, but the room is still cold.

Alex:
Okay, four. I'll take it. The VIX, from FRED, jumped from sixteen point six one on Wednesday to twenty-eight point one eight on Thursday. Friday's VIX is not in FRED yet.

Mia:
And Friday?

Alex:
A partial bounce, not a full repair. The Nasdaq Composite closed Friday at twenty-four thousand, five hundred seventy-nine, up about one point one percent. The Nasdaq-one-hundred rose about one point four percent, to twenty-six thousand, nine hundred ninety. Q.Q.Q. closed at six hundred fifty-six dollars and ten cents, also up one point four percent.

Mia:
And the S and P five hundred ETF?

Alex:
S.P.Y. closed Friday at seven hundred thirty-five dollars and twenty-nine cents, up about three tenths of one percent, but down about two point two percent from Monday's close. The Dow ETF, D.I.A., finished at five hundred twelve dollars and twenty-two cents, down four tenths Friday and about one point three percent on the week. FRED's Dow close on Friday was fifty-one thousand, two hundred eighty-six. The Russell two thousand ETF, I.W.M., rose about one percent Friday, to two hundred seventy-three sixty-seven, but it was still down about two percent from Monday.

Mia:
And under the hood?

Alex:
Tech and chips bounced Friday but lost ground for the week. X.L.K. rose about one and a half percent, to one hundred sixty-four seventy-four, yet it was down about five and a half percent from Monday. S.M.H. jumped about three point six percent, to four hundred sixty-three ninety-six, but it was still down about eight point seven percent on the week. The financial sector ETF, X.L.F., eased about six tenths Friday, to fifty-seven sixteen, and was down about seven tenths for the week.

Mia:
Energy?

Alex:
It kept sliding. X.L.E. was basically flat Friday at sixty-one sixty-two, but it dropped about eight point four percent from Monday. E.W.Y. bounced about four percent Friday, to one hundred thirty-seven and one cent, and was still down about nine point six percent from Monday.

Mia:
So what's the "so what" for my ETFs?

Alex:
A week like this is why a broad index fund and a sector fund can feel like different planets. S.P.Y. was down a bit more than two percent from Monday to Friday, but chips and energy each lost more than eight percent, and gold actually rose. If you only look at the index close, you miss the weather underneath.

Mia:
Flat-ish on the surface, stormy in the basement. Okay, that tracks. Now, bonds and the dollar.

Alex:
Section two, rates. The Treasury's official daily yield curve now runs through Friday, November sixth. The ten-year yield closed Friday at four point eight six percent, down five basis points from Monday's four point nine one, and down eight basis points from the four point nine four we cited last time, from October thirtieth. A basis point, again, is one hundredth of a percentage point.

Mia:
So long yields eased a little, even with all that stock drama.

Alex:
Right. The two-year was four point five one percent on Friday, down from four point five nine on Monday. The five-year was four point six four. The thirty-year was five point two six. And the three-month bill was four point one nine. The curve is still upward sloping: short rates around four point two, the ten-year near four point nine, the long bond a bit above five. Yields dipped a bit more on Thursday, when stocks sold off, with the ten-year at four point eight four and the two-year at four point four six, then they backed up a touch on Friday.

Mia:
And bond ETFs?

Alex:
Much calmer than stocks. The long-term Treasury ETF, T.L.T., closed Friday at eighty-one ninety-two, basically unchanged on the day and up about two tenths of a percent from Monday. The seven-to-ten-year Treasury ETF, I.E.F., finished at ninety-one eighty-six, down about a tenth Friday and up about four tenths on the week. High-yield bonds, through H.Y.G., were seventy-seven twenty-three, almost unchanged Friday and up about four tenths from Monday.

Mia:
Stocks were on a roller coaster, and Treasuries were on a moving walkway. Duration, remember, is how sensitive a bond's price is to changes in yields.

Alex:
Exactly. When yields only move a few basis points, long-bond ETFs don't have to swing the way chip funds did. Gold was one of the week's quieter winners. The gold ETF, G.L.D., closed Friday at three hundred seventy-two dollars and fifty-two cents, down about eight tenths on Friday, but up about three percent from Monday's three hundred sixty-one sixty-five.

Mia:
Gold had a golden week, even if Friday was a little less shiny.

Alex:
Wait. Are you taking my pun job again?

Mia:
Oh come on, I'm just keeping the quality control department busy.

Alex:
And the dollar, using the European Central Bank's reference rates through Friday. The euro was one point one one six five dollars, compared with one point one two one six on Monday, so the dollar strengthened a bit against the euro. Our calculation from the E.C.B.'s euro-yen and euro-dollar rates puts the dollar near one hundred fifty-eight point three three yen on Friday, up from about one hundred fifty-seven point nine on Monday. The pound was around one point three three eight five dollars, a bit softer than about one point three four two on Monday.

Mia:
So if you hold European or British stocks without a currency hedge, a stronger dollar takes a little off the dollar return. Currency is still the hidden ingredient in every international fund.

Alex:
Right. And on Wednesday, the Treasury published its quarterly refunding details. It is offering one hundred twenty-five billion dollars of securities to refund about ninety-seven billion of notes and bonds maturing on November fifteenth, raising about twenty-eight billion dollars of new cash from private investors.

Mia:
And the mix?

Alex:
Fifty-eight billion in three-year notes, forty-two billion in ten-year notes, and twenty-five billion in thirty-year bonds. The three-year is scheduled to be auctioned today at one p.m. Eastern, eighteen hundred U.T.C. The ten-year is Tuesday at the same time, and the thirty-year is Thursday at the same time. They all settle on Monday, November sixteenth.

Mia:
Last time, the question was whether they would jack up auction sizes.

Alex:
They did not. The Treasury said it plans to keep most coupon, floating-rate, and inflation-protected auction sizes at current levels through January. The two-year stays at sixty-nine billion, the five-year at seventy billion, and the seven-year at forty-four billion. The ten-year, twenty-year, and thirty-year step up in the refunding month, then return to the smaller sizes in December and January, the same pattern as last quarter.

Mia:
So the supply story is "steady," not "suddenly more."

Alex:
That's the message. The Treasury also said it expects to buy back up to seventy billion dollars of older securities for liquidity support this quarter, and up to twenty-five billion for cash management in the one-month to two-year area. Buybacks are when the Treasury purchases its own older bonds, which can help those issues trade more smoothly.

Mia:
For ETF investors, unchanged coupon sizes mean the market is not being asked, in this announcement, to digest a fresh increase in long-bond supply on top of that eight hundred billion January-to-March borrowing estimate we talked about last time.

Alex:
Exactly. Okay, oil next, because energy funds clearly felt it.

Alex:
Section three, oil. The latest official daily prices from the Energy Information Administration, also published through FRED, are from Tuesday, November third. Brent was one hundred seven dollars and three cents a barrel, and W.T.I. was ninety-nine dollars and sixty-four cents.

Mia:
Hold on. Last time we only had October twenty-seventh: Brent at one hundred twenty-three ten, and W.T.I. at one hundred three thirty-seven.

Alex:
Yes. So Brent has come down about sixteen dollars from that print, and W.T.I. is down a bit under four dollars. From Friday, October thirtieth, W.T.I. went from one hundred seven fifty-six to ninety-nine sixty-four, and Brent from one hundred twenty point one five to one hundred seven oh three.

Mia:
A real retreat from those very high levels, even if oil is still expensive by everyday standards. And it lines up with X.L.E. losing more than eight percent from Monday to Friday.

Alex:
Oil took the express elevator down, and energy ETFs shared the shaft.

Mia:
Okay, I'll give you a six for that one. Wait, that's my job.

Alex:
Quality control goes both ways.

Mia:
Oh come on, we will discuss this in committee. Alright, central banks.

Alex:
Section four, central banks. The headline abroad is the Bank of England. On Thursday it raised Bank Rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to four percent, from three point seven five percent. The vote was eight to one. Catherine L. Mann wanted a half-point increase, to four point two five percent. The other eight members, including Governor Andrew Bailey, backed the quarter-point move.

Mia:
And the why, in plain English?

Alex:
Energy prices, mainly. The Bank said the conflict in the Middle East is in its ninth month, and U.K. consumer-price inflation rose to three point five percent in September. It now expects inflation to rise to around five percent by the middle of next year, then fall later as energy effects fade and policy stays restrictive.

Mia:
Five percent. That's a long way from their two percent target.

Alex:
It is. They also said there is still limited evidence that higher energy costs have spilled into other prices and wages, what they call second-round effects. But they think there is now enough inflation in the pipeline to warrant a hike, and that recent activity data have been stronger than expected. Policy is not on a pre-set path, they said, and they will watch pay, pricing behavior, and spare capacity. Their next decision is December seventeenth.

Mia:
So they are hiking now as insurance, not because wages are already taking off. A Super Thursday hike. They really did raise the stakes with the tea.

Alex:
Oh come on. That one is a three.

Mia:
Okay, harsh, but fair.

Alex:
At home, no new Fed policy statement since October twenty-eighth. The Fed is still holding its target range at three and three quarters to four percent, on that ten-to-two vote we covered. The next meeting is December eighth and ninth, and it includes a new set of economic projections. The Fed's speech calendar also shows no new Board speeches since we last talked.

Mia:
So Friday's jobs number is one more input for December, and this week's consumer price index will be another.

Alex:
Exactly. Elsewhere, on November fifth the Bank of Canada renewed its monetary-policy framework with the Canadian government. The inflation target stays at two percent, the midpoint of a one-to-three percent control range, for another five years, through the end of twenty thirty-one. That is a framework renewal, not a new rate decision. The Bank of Japan published minutes of its September meeting on November fifth, but no new rate decision this week. And the E.C.B. has not issued a new interest-rate decision since we last spoke.

Mia:
Okay, now the data, starting with jobs.

Alex:
Section five, data. The October Employment Situation came out Friday at eight thirty a.m. Eastern, thirteen thirty U.T.C. Total nonfarm payrolls rose by one hundred sixty-five thousand. The unemployment rate changed little at four point one percent, and the number of unemployed people was seven point one million. The rate has stayed in a narrow range of four point one percent to four point three percent since March.

Mia:
Where did the new jobs show up?

Alex:
Professional and business services added seventy thousand, well above their fifteen thousand average over the prior year. Health care added forty-two thousand. Transportation and warehousing added twenty-five thousand, with couriers and messengers up seventeen thousand. Manufacturing rose by nineteen thousand. The labor force participation rate was sixty-one point nine percent, and the employment-population ratio was fifty-nine point three percent. Both changed little, and both have shown little net change since January.

Mia:
And the revisions?

Alex:
August was revised up by fifty-three thousand, to plus one hundred eighty-six thousand. September was revised up by thirty-one thousand, to plus sixty thousand. Together, August and September are eighty-four thousand stronger than first reported.

Mia:
So the past two months were better than we thought, and October came in well above that forty-eight thousand average.

Alex:
That's the headline picture. Average hourly earnings for all private employees rose fourteen cents, or four tenths of one percent, to thirty-eight dollars even. Over the past twelve months, wages are up three point one percent. The workweek stayed at thirty-four point four hours.

Mia:
Any caution lights?

Alex:
One worth flagging. The number of people working part time for economic reasons increased by three hundred thirty-nine thousand, to four point eight million. These are people who wanted full-time work but were on shorter hours or could not find a full-time job. Long-term unemployment, people jobless for twenty-seven weeks or more, was little changed at two point oh million, or twenty-seven point six percent of the unemployed. The next jobs report is Friday, December fourth, at eight thirty a.m. Eastern.

Mia:
Now rewind to Tuesday's JOLTS report, the job openings survey.

Alex:
For September, job openings were little changed at seven point five million, for an openings rate of four point five percent. Hires were little changed at five point four million, and total separations were little changed at five point three million. Quits increased to three point four million, while the quits rate was little changed at two point one percent. Layoffs and discharges were little changed at one point six million, or one percent. Over the year, total quits are up three hundred seventy-five thousand. August openings were revised up by one hundred eleven thousand, to seven point two million.

Mia:
So openings are stable, and more people are choosing to leave jobs, which can be a sign they think other work is out there.

Alex:
That's the usual reading of quits. Thursday also brought productivity. Preliminary third-quarter productivity in the nonfarm business sector rose three point six percent at an annual rate, as output increased three point seven percent and hours worked increased just a tenth of one percent.

Mia:
Doing more with almost the same hours. That's the good kind of busy.

Alex:
Unit labor costs, what companies pay in labor for each unit of output, fell seven tenths of one percent, as hourly compensation rose two point nine percent but productivity rose faster. From a year earlier, productivity is up two point one percent, and unit labor costs are up two point four percent. The second quarter was revised up to a two point one percent productivity gain from one point four percent.

Mia:
If companies can produce more per hour, that can help profits and take some pressure off inflation.

Alex:
Right. The B.L.S. also said the labor share, the slice of output that goes to workers as compensation, was fifty-three point oh percent in the third quarter, the lowest in a series that starts in nineteen forty-seven.

Mia:
Lowest since the Truman years. That's a long time to wait for a bigger slice of pie.

Alex:
Okay, the pie metaphor works. On the trade side, the Census Bureau and the B.E.A. said the September goods and services deficit was one hundred five point oh billion dollars, down seven tenths of a billion from a revised one hundred five point seven billion in August.

Mia:
A slightly narrower gap.

Alex:
Exports were three hundred twenty-one point five billion, up one point nine percent, or five point eight billion. Imports were four hundred twenty-six point six billion, up one point two percent, or five point two billion. The goods deficit was one hundred thirty-five point nine billion, and the services surplus was thirty point nine billion.

Mia:
And under the hood?

Alex:
Capital goods were the mover. Goods exports rose five point one billion, including three point eight billion more in capital goods, with computers up one point three billion. Goods imports rose four point four billion, and capital-goods imports jumped eleven point six billion, including seven point six billion more in computers and five point seven billion more in computer accessories. Semiconductors fell one point two billion.

Mia:
So the A.I. buildout is showing up at the border, in both directions, just as the Treasury noted strong equipment and data-center spending last week.

Alex:
Year-to-date, the deficit is down ninety-two point four billion dollars, or twelve point two percent, from the same period in twenty twenty-five, because exports have risen faster than imports. And on Tuesday, the Census Bureau said new orders for manufactured goods rose one point eight percent in September, to six hundred seventy-seven point two billion dollars, up for a third straight month, by twelve point two billion. The next factory-orders report is December third.

Mia:
Okay, let's pull this together for ETF investors.

Alex:
First, the labor market looks firmer than the recent trickle of job gains suggested. One hundred sixty-five thousand payrolls, upward revisions of eighty-four thousand to the prior two months, and unemployment still at four point one percent. That is a stronger tape for broad equity ETFs than a sharply weakening jobs market would have been, though that jump in involuntary part-time work is a reminder it is not uniformly tight.

Mia:
Second, volatility. Thursday showed how fast sector ETFs can move. Chips fell about eleven percent that day, tech eight percent, and the Nasdaq Composite five and a half percent, while the VIX jumped to about twenty-eight. A broad index fund hid some of that, but not all of it.

Alex:
Third, yields and duration. The ten-year ended Friday at four point eight six percent, a little lower on the week, and the Treasury kept auction sizes unchanged. Long-bond ETFs like T.L.T. barely moved. The bigger rate surprise abroad was the Bank of England's hike to four percent, which matters more if you hold U.K. stock or bond funds.

Mia:
Fourth, oil and energy. Official Brent is down sharply from the late-October prints we had, and X.L.E. lost more than eight percent from Monday to Friday. Energy sector funds felt that cooling more than the S and P five hundred did.

Alex:
And fifth, currency. The dollar firmed a bit against the euro, the yen, and the pound between Monday and Friday, using those E.C.B. reference rates. Check whether your international ETFs are currency-hedged.

Mia:
Good list. Now the quick round. And I promise, quick.

Alex:
Your promises are like my puns. Sometimes they stick the landing.

Mia:
Oh come on.

Alex:
One. Tuesday was Election Day in the United States, with all four hundred thirty-five House seats and about a third of the Senate up. The Federal Election Commission says official certified results come from the states and are not available immediately, and the House Clerk has not posted certified general-election statistics for twenty twenty-six yet. So we are not calling winners from unofficial counts.

Mia:
Two. Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees rose twelve cents, or four tenths of one percent, to thirty-two dollars and seventy-five cents in October.

Alex:
Three. Manufacturing productivity rose only three tenths of one percent in the third quarter, much softer than the broader nonfarm number, as hours worked rose one percent.

Mia:
Four. The three-month average goods and services deficit rose to one hundred one point two billion dollars in September, eleven point three billion wider than the prior three months and thirty-six point five billion wider than a year earlier.

Alex:
Okay, now the calendar, with times in U.S. Eastern and U.T.C. Eastern Time is five hours behind U.T.C. now.

Mia:
Today, Monday, November ninth: the Census Bureau's wholesale trade report is due, and at one p.m. Eastern, eighteen hundred U.T.C., the Treasury auctions those fifty-eight billion dollars of three-year notes.

Alex:
Tuesday, November tenth: the October consumer price index and the real earnings report, both at eight thirty a.m. Eastern, thirteen thirty U.T.C. Later that day, at one p.m. Eastern, the Treasury auctions forty-two billion dollars of ten-year notes.

Mia:
Wednesday, November eleventh is the Veterans Day holiday. U.S. markets are closed.

Alex:
Thursday, November twelfth: the Labor Department's weekly jobless claims, at the usual eight thirty a.m. Eastern, thirteen thirty U.T.C. The Census Bureau's business-formation statistics are also due. And because of the holiday, the Energy Information Administration pushes its Weekly Petroleum Status Report to twelve noon Eastern, seventeen hundred U.T.C., instead of the usual Wednesday morning slot.

Mia:
Also Thursday, at one p.m. Eastern, the Treasury auctions twenty-five billion dollars of thirty-year bonds. Friday, November thirteenth: the October producer price index, at eight thirty a.m. Eastern, thirteen thirty U.T.C.

Alex:
Looking a bit further: the Fed's next meeting is December eighth and ninth. The next jobs report is December fourth. And following the Fed's usual three-week schedule, minutes from the October meeting should arrive around the middle of this month.

Mia:
Busy, busy. Okay, one-line takeaway.

Alex:
The labor market added jobs at a much stronger pace in October than in the prior year, but it was also a week when stocks, especially tech and energy, showed just how fast sector ETFs can move, while Treasury yields eased a little and the Bank of England pushed its rate back to four percent.

Mia:
Nice. And my final pun score for you today: five out of ten.

Alex:
Five! Progress. Next stop, a passing grade.

Mia:
Okay, don't spend the extra point all at once.

Mia:
Thanks for listening to Macro Morning, your daily macro and markets briefing for ETF investors. Have a great Monday.

Alex:
Okay, may your coffee last longer than Thursday's rally. See you tomorrow.

Sources (official / public data; facts only)

• BLS: Employment Situation, October 2026 (released Nov 6): https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
• BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover, September 2026 (released Nov 3): https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm
• BLS: Productivity and Costs, Third Quarter 2026 preliminary (released Nov 5): https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm
• BLS: Release calendar, November 2026: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/
• BEA/Census: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, September 2026 (released Nov 4): https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-september-2026
• Census Bureau: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, September 2026 (released Nov 3): https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/
• Census Bureau: Economic indicators and upcoming wholesale trade / business formation dates: https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/
• BEA: Release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
• U.S. Treasury: Quarterly refunding statement, Nov 4, 2026: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0678
• U.S. Treasury: Daily par yield curve rates (through Nov 6, 2026): https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026
• Nasdaq: ETF and index daily closes, Oct 30–Nov 6, 2026: https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity
• FRED: SP500, DJIA, NASDAQCOM, VIXCLS, DGS2, DGS5, DGS10, DGS30, DGS3MO, DCOILWTICO, DCOILBRENTEU (latest available as of fetch): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=SP500
• EIA: Crude oil spot prices (WTI and Brent through Nov 3, 2026; next daily release Nov 12): https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm
• EIA: Weekly Petroleum Status Report schedule (Nov 12, 12:00 p.m. ET for week ending Nov 6): https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/schedule.php
• European Central Bank: Euro foreign exchange reference rates (through Nov 6, 2026): https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/eurofxref/eurofxref-hist-90d.xml
• Federal Reserve: FOMC calendars (next meeting Dec 8-9): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
• Federal Reserve: 2026 speeches page (no new Board speeches after Oct 14 as of fetch): https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/2026-speeches.htm
• Bank of England: Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, November 2026 (Bank Rate to 4%, published Nov 5): https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/november-2026
• Bank of Canada: Renewal of the monetary policy framework, Nov 5, 2026: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/11/joint-statement-of-the-government-of-canada-and-the-bank-of-canada-on-the-renewal-of-the-monetary-policy-framework-2026/
• Bank of Japan: News list (September MPM minutes published Nov 5; no new rate decision this week): https://www.boj.or.jp/en/whatsnew/
• FEC: Election results information (certified results not immediate): https://www.fec.gov/introduction-campaign-finance/election-results-and-voting-information/
• House Clerk: Official list of members dated Nov 2, 2026 (pre-election composition; no 2026 general-election statistics posted): https://clerk.house.gov/member_info/olm-119.pdf
• USAGov: Midterm elections (all 435 House seats and about one-third of the Senate): https://www.usa.gov/midterm-elections

Music: Chill 03 Lantern (original)

Election Day in the U.S. as the Treasury lays out heavier borrowing ahead of Wednesday's refunding. Plus Monday's sector rotation, the ECB's leadership news and forecaster survey, U.S. construction spending, and the week ahead in ET and UTC.

Alex:
Good morning, Mia!

Mia:
Morning, Alex. You look suspiciously awake for a Tuesday.

Alex:
Tuesday is underrated. Monday takes all the blame, and Tuesday just quietly does the work.

Mia:
Hahaha, okay, so Tuesday is the responsible sibling.

Alex:
Exactly. Tuesday pays its bills on time. Tuesday has a reusable water bottle.

Mia:
I love that. I'm on my first coffee, by the way, and I'm going to make it last the whole show.

Alex:
Bold strategy. Mine's already half gone, and it's still dark out.

Mia:
It's November. It's dark when you wake up and dark when you leave work. The sun is basically working part time.

Alex:
The sun is on a four-day week and nobody told us.

Mia:
Hahaha, okay okay. Let's do this before the coffee wears off.

Alex:
Welcome to Macro Morning, your daily macro and markets briefing for E.T.F. investors, built from official sources like the Fed, the Treasury, and the B.L.S. It's Tuesday, November third. I'm Alex.

Mia:
And I'm Mia. Alex, thirty seconds. What's the one thing that matters most for an E.T.F. investor today?

Alex:
Today is Election Day in the United States, for the midterm elections. And while everybody watches the results, the Treasury quietly dropped a big number on Monday afternoon: it expects to borrow six hundred eighteen billion dollars in the October-to-December quarter, and eight hundred billion dollars in January-to-March.

Mia:
Eight hundred billion in one quarter. That's a lot of bonds looking for buyers.

Alex:
It is. And it lands right before Wednesday's refunding details, Friday's jobs report, and a Bank of England decision on Thursday.

Mia:
Wait, wait, and how did stocks handle Monday after that rough Friday?

Alex:
Calmer, but with a twist. Tech and chips kept slipping, energy dropped hard, and banks and gold went up. A real rotation day.

Mia:
Okay, quick note before we start. Monday's U.S. session hadn't closed when we put this together, so the stock numbers are from about three p.m. Eastern, an hour before the close, using Nasdaq's public market data.

Alex:
Good call. Final closes could be a bit different. And as always, this is general information, not investment advice.

Mia:
Alright, stocks first.

Alex:
Section one, stocks. As of about three p.m. Eastern Monday, the S and P five hundred E.T.F., ticker S.P.Y., was basically flat, at seven hundred fifty-five dollars and twenty cents. That's down less than a tenth of one percent.

Mia:
Flat. After Friday, I'll take flat. Flat is the new up.

Alex:
The Dow E.T.F., D.I.A., was up about three quarters of a percent, near five hundred twenty-one dollars.

Mia:
And tech?

Alex:
Tech was still sore. The Nasdaq Composite was down about four tenths of a percent, at around twenty-five thousand, three hundred thirty-eight. The Nasdaq-one-hundred was down about seven tenths of a percent, and Q.Q.Q., the E.T.F. that tracks it, was around six hundred eighty-five dollars and sixty cents, also down about seven tenths.

Mia:
And the chip E.T.F., S.M.H., the one that fell almost seven percent on Friday?

Alex:
Down another one point nine percent, to about five hundred twelve fifty. The technology sector E.T.F., X.L.K., was down about two point two percent.

Mia:
So the chips are still, what, recharging?

Alex:
I was going to say they're stuck in a low-power mode.

Mia:
Oh come on. Three out of ten. You can do better.

Alex:
Hahaha, three. It's early. I'm warming up.

Mia:
Okay, so where did the money go?

Alex:
Financials, mainly. The financial sector E.T.F., X.L.F., was up about one point nine percent. And small caps were slightly positive: the Russell two thousand E.T.F., I.W.M., was up about three tenths of a percent, near two hundred eighty dollars.

Mia:
And energy?

Alex:
Energy went the other way. The energy sector E.T.F., X.L.E., fell about three and a half percent, to sixty-seven dollars and sixty-one cents. On Friday it was the one winner, and on Monday it was the biggest loser of the sectors we follow.

Mia:
Whiplash. So what's the "so what" for my E.T.F.s?

Alex:
When the S and P five hundred is flat but sectors move two or three percent in opposite directions, your broad index fund hides a lot of action underneath. If you own sector E.T.F.s, this is the kind of day where they really feel different from the index.

Mia:
Flat on the outside, chaos on the inside.

Alex:
That's also how I feel before coffee.

Mia:
Hahaha, okay, fair.

Mia:
And outside the U.S.?

Alex:
The iShares Korea E.T.F., E.W.Y., a chip-heavy country fund, was up about a third of a percent at around one fifty-three forty-four, after its big Friday drop.

Mia:
Now, bonds and the dollar.

Alex:
Section two, rates. The latest official Treasury yield curve is from Friday, October thirtieth, because Monday's numbers are published after the market day. On Friday, the ten-year Treasury yield was four point nine four percent. Two days earlier, on Wednesday the twenty-eighth, it was five point oh five.

Mia:
So about eleven basis points lower in two days. And a basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point, for anyone wondering.

Alex:
Right. The two-year was four point five six percent on Friday, down from four point six seven. The five-year was four point seven one. The thirty-year was five point three one. And the three-month bill was four point one six.

Mia:
So the curve is still upward sloping. Short rates around four point two, long rates above five.

Alex:
Exactly. And on Monday, bond E.T.F.s were a bit firmer. The long-term Treasury E.T.F., T.L.T., was up about a third of a percent, near eighty-one eighty. The seven-to-ten-year Treasury E.T.F., I.E.F., was up less than a tenth of a percent. High-yield bonds, through H.Y.G., were basically flat.

Mia:
Gold?

Alex:
The gold E.T.F., G.L.D., bounced about one point six percent, to around three hundred sixty-one fifty, after dropping on Friday.

Mia:
Gold had a golden Monday.

Alex:
Wait, are you doing puns now? That's my job.

Mia:
Hahaha, I'm just showing you how it's done.

Alex:
And the dollar. Using the European Central Bank's reference rates for Monday, the euro was one point one two one six dollars, up from one point one one seven two on Friday. So the dollar slipped a little against the euro.

Mia:
And the yen?

Alex:
The other way. Our calculation from the E.C.B.'s euro-yen and euro-dollar rates puts the dollar near one hundred fifty-seven point nine yen on Monday, up from about one fifty-seven point two five on Friday. And the pound was around one point three four dollars, also our calculation from E.C.B. rates.

Mia:
So for an E.T.F. investor holding Japanese stocks without a currency hedge, a weaker yen takes a bit off the dollar return.

Alex:
Right. Currency is the hidden ingredient in every international fund.

Mia:
Okay, now the big fiscal story.

Alex:
Section three, the Treasury. On Monday afternoon, the U.S. Treasury announced its borrowing estimates. For October through December, it expects to borrow six hundred eighteen billion dollars in privately-held net marketable debt. That assumes a cash balance of eight hundred fifty billion dollars at the end of December.

Mia:
Let me translate "privately-held net marketable debt." That's new borrowing from investors, after replacing debt that matures. Basically, how many more bonds and bills the market has to absorb.

Alex:
Perfect. That six hundred eighteen billion is ten billion lower than the Treasury estimated in August. But the Treasury says that's mostly because it started the quarter with more cash than expected. Excluding that, the estimate is actually twenty-four billion dollars higher than in August.

Mia:
So, lower on paper, higher underneath.

Alex:
Exactly. And for January through March, the estimate is eight hundred billion dollars, with an end-of-March cash balance of one trillion dollars.

Mia:
And the quarter that just ended?

Alex:
From July through September, the Treasury borrowed seven hundred forty-two billion dollars and ended the quarter with nine hundred eighty-four billion in cash.

Mia:
Okay. Why should I care, as an E.T.F. investor?

Alex:
More borrowing means more supply of Treasuries. If demand doesn't keep up, investors may ask for higher yields, especially on long bonds. And that matters for long-duration bond E.T.F.s like T.L.T., and for rate-sensitive stocks.

Mia:
And the details come Wednesday?

Alex:
Yes. The Treasury says more financing details for the quarterly refunding come at eight thirty a.m. Eastern on Wednesday, November fourth. That's thirteen thirty U.T.C. That's where we learn the auction sizes.

Mia:
Got it. And the Treasury also put out an economy statement for its borrowing advisory committee. Anything there?

Alex:
A few things. It says business fixed investment, meaning companies spending on equipment, software, and buildings, rose more than ten percent at an annual rate over the first three quarters of twenty twenty-six. Equipment investment jumped twenty point nine percent at an annual rate in the third quarter.

Mia:
Twenty point nine. That's the A.I. building boom showing up in the data.

Alex:
The Treasury actually says spending on data centers accelerated to a triple-digit pace in the third quarter. And it says the private sector added six hundred thirty-four thousand jobs since December twenty twenty-five.

Mia:
So the official view from the Treasury is: investment is very strong.

Alex:
That's their view, yes. And it's a good reminder of why tech and industrial E.T.F.s have been so tied to capital spending.

Mia:
Alright, central banks.

Alex:
Section four, central banks. Starting with the Fed. No new policy statement since last week. On October twenty-eighth, the Fed held its target range at three and three quarters to four percent, by a ten-to-two vote. The next meeting is December eighth and ninth.

Mia:
So the Fed is in "wait and see" mode, and this week's jobs report is a big input.

Alex:
Right. Now Europe, and this one surprised me. The European Central Bank announced last Thursday that President Christine Lagarde will step down on February seventh, twenty twenty-seven. Her successor will be appointed by the European Council.

Mia:
Wow. That's a big change at the top of the euro area's central bank.

Alex:
It is. The E.C.B. said the Governing Council gave her a long standing ovation.

Mia:
That's nice. Okay, but for markets, a leadership change can mean questions about future policy, which can move euro-zone bond yields and the euro.

Alex:
Exactly. Something to watch if you hold European stock or bond E.T.F.s.

Mia:
And there was an E.C.B. survey, too?

Alex:
Yes, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, published Friday. Forecasters now expect euro-area inflation of three point oh percent in twenty twenty-six, two point six in twenty twenty-seven, and two point oh in twenty twenty-eight. The first two were revised up, mainly because of higher energy prices.

Mia:
And growth?

Alex:
One point oh percent this year, and one point three percent in both twenty twenty-seven and twenty twenty-eight. Longer-term inflation expectations stayed at two percent.

Mia:
So forecasters think inflation is a near-term problem, but the long-term anchor is holding.

Alex:
That's how I read it. And on Monday, E.C.B. Vice-President Boris Vujčić gave a speech in Dublin about keeping Europe open to trade while building resilience to geopolitical shocks.

Mia:
And the Bank of England?

Alex:
Bank Rate is three point seven five percent, and the next decision is this Thursday, November fifth, together with its new Monetary Policy Report.

Mia:
So Thursday is a "super Thursday" in London.

Alex:
Exactly. We covered last week's Bank of Canada, E.C.B. and Bank of Japan decisions yesterday, so no repeats today.

Mia:
Okay, now some data.

Alex:
Section five, data. On Monday, the Census Bureau published construction spending for September. Total construction spending was two point one eight six trillion dollars at an annual rate. That's down one point nine percent from August, which was revised to two point two two seven trillion.

Mia:
Down almost two percent in a month. That's a big drop.

Alex:
It is, and the Census Bureau says the drop is statistically significant, with a margin of plus or minus zero point seven percent.

Mia:
So, home builders and construction-related E.T.F.s might want to note that.

Alex:
Right. And it's an interesting contrast. The Treasury says structures investment rose in the third quarter, while September construction spending fell. One month doesn't make a trend.

Mia:
Hold on, so it's strong for the quarter, but September cooled off?

Alex:
That's one way to read it. Monthly data can be noisy.

Mia:
Construction spending, under construction.

Alex:
Hahaha, okay, that's good. You're stealing my material.

Mia:
I'll give myself a seven.

Alex:
You can't score yourself!

Mia:
Hahaha, I just did.

Alex:
And for oil, the latest official daily prices from the Energy Information Administration are still from last Monday, October twenty-seventh: Brent at one hundred twenty-three dollars and ten cents a barrel, and W.T.I. at one hundred three dollars and thirty-seven cents. So oil is still very high, even if energy stocks dropped on Monday.

Mia:
Got it. Okay, now let's pull it together for E.T.F. investors.

Alex:
First, rotation. On Monday, the S and P five hundred E.T.F. was flat, but tech fell about two percent, energy fell three and a half, and financials rose almost two. Sector E.T.F.s can move very differently from the broad index.

Mia:
Second, bond supply. The Treasury expects to borrow eight hundred billion dollars in the first quarter of next year. More supply can push long yields up, so long-duration bond E.T.F.s carry more risk if that happens. Duration, again, is how sensitive a bond's price is to changes in rates.

Alex:
Third, event risk. The U.S. midterm results come in tonight, then the refunding details Wednesday, the Bank of England Thursday, and jobs on Friday. That's a lot of possible surprises in one week.

Mia:
And fourth, currency. The dollar was a bit weaker against the euro and a bit stronger against the yen on Monday. If you own international E.T.F.s, check whether they're currency-hedged.

Alex:
Good list. Now, the quick round. And I promise, quick.

Mia:
Your promises are like your puns.

Alex:
Hahaha, oh come on.

Mia:
One. E.C.B. forecasters expect euro-area unemployment to be slightly higher in twenty twenty-six than they thought before, but broadly unchanged after that.

Alex:
Two. The E.C.B. survey asked about the war in the Middle East. Forecasters expect most of the extra energy-price effects in twenty twenty-seven, with limited second-round effects. Second-round effects means energy costs spreading into wages and other prices.

Mia:
Three. The Census Bureau's next construction spending report is on December first.

Alex:
Four. The Treasury says it ended September with nine hundred eighty-four billion dollars in cash, more than the nine hundred fifty billion it assumed in August.

Mia:
Okay, now the calendar, with times in U.S. Eastern and U.T.C. Eastern Time is five hours behind U.T.C. now.

Alex:
Today, Tuesday, November third: U.S. Election Day. All four hundred thirty-five House seats are up, and about a third of the Senate. Results start coming in this evening as polls close.

Mia:
Also today, at ten a.m. Eastern, fifteen hundred U.T.C., the B.L.S. publishes the September job openings report, called JOLTS.

Alex:
Wednesday, November fourth: at eight thirty a.m. Eastern, thirteen thirty U.T.C., the Treasury's quarterly refunding details, and at the same time, the B.E.A.'s September trade report.

Mia:
Thursday, November fifth: the Bank of England decision and Monetary Policy Report. And at eight thirty a.m. Eastern, thirteen thirty U.T.C., the B.L.S. productivity and costs report for the third quarter.

Alex:
Friday, November sixth: the big one. The October jobs report, at eight thirty a.m. Eastern, thirteen thirty U.T.C.

Mia:
And looking ahead: October C.P.I. next Tuesday, November tenth, at eight thirty a.m. Eastern. Wednesday the eleventh is the Veterans Day holiday. And the producer price index is Friday, November thirteenth, at eight thirty a.m. Eastern.

Alex:
And the Fed's next meeting is December eighth and ninth.

Mia:
Busy, busy. Okay, one-line takeaway.

Alex:
Stocks calmed down on the surface but rotated hard underneath, and with the Treasury planning to borrow eight hundred billion next quarter plus an election and a jobs report this week, it's a good week to know how much of your portfolio sits in tech and in long-term bonds.

Mia:
Nice. And my final pun score for you today: four out of ten.

Alex:
Four! And you gave yourself a seven. This is rigged.

Mia:
Hahaha, my show, my rules.

Mia:
Thanks for listening to Macro Morning, your daily macro and markets briefing for E.T.F. investors. Have a great Tuesday.

Alex:
Hahaha, be the responsible sibling today. See you tomorrow.

Sources (official / public data; facts only)

• Nasdaq: ETF and index quotes, Nov 2, 2026 (intraday, about 3:05 p.m. ET): https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity
• U.S. Treasury: Marketable borrowing estimates, Nov 2, 2026: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0675
• U.S. Treasury: Economy statement for the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, Nov 2, 2026: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0676
• U.S. Treasury: Daily par yield curve rates (through Oct 30, 2026): https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve
• Census Bureau: Construction spending, September 2026 (released Nov 2): https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/
• Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, Oct 28, 2026: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm
• Federal Reserve: FOMC calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
• European Central Bank: President Lagarde to step down on 7 February 2027: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.pr261029~abbb6dc64b.en.html
• European Central Bank: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Q4 2026: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.pr261030~e92c3c838c.en.html
• European Central Bank: Speech by Boris Vujčić, Dublin, Nov 2, 2026: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2026/html/ecb.sp.261102~70003226e9.en.html
• European Central Bank: Euro foreign exchange reference rates: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/index.en.html
• Bank of England: Upcoming MPC dates: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates
• EIA: Brent and WTI spot prices: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/RBRTED.htm
• BLS: Release calendar, November 2026: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/
• BEA: Release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
• USAGov: Midterm elections: https://www.usa.gov/midterm-elections

Music: Chill 02 Harbor (original)

Friday's tech and chip selloff, last week's central bank decisions (Fed hold with two votes to hike, Bank of Canada hike, ECB and Bank of Japan holds), U.S. GDP, inflation and jobs data, oil, yields, and this week's calendar in U.S. Eastern time and UTC. Built from official central bank and government sources. General information, not investment advice.

Alex:
Good morning, Mia!

Mia:
Morning, Alex. Wow, it's early. Is that your second coffee?

Alex:
Second? Hahaha, no. This is my first, and it's already doing heavy lifting.

Mia:
It's Monday in early November. The mornings are dark, the coffee is strong, and everybody is pretending the week isn't about to start.

Alex:
Pretending is a skill. I practice it every Monday.

Mia:
Hahaha, okay, fair. I did bring a scarf today, though. Scarf season is officially open.

Alex:
Scarf season, coffee season. Honestly, November is just a cozy mood with a calendar attached.

Mia:
A cozy mood with a calendar. I like that. But this week's calendar is not cozy.

Alex:
Okay, okay, I'll stop stalling. Ready?

Mia:
Ready when you are.

Alex:
Then welcome to Macro Morning, your daily macro and markets briefing for E.T.F. investors, built from official sources like the Fed, the Treasury, and the B.L.S. It's Monday, November second. I'm Alex.

Mia:
And I'm Mia. Okay, Alex, you've got thirty seconds. What's the one thing an E.T.F. investor needs to know today?

Alex:
Friday was ugly for tech. The Nasdaq Composite fell about two point nine percent in a single day, and chip stocks were hit even harder. A popular semiconductor E.T.F., ticker S.M.H., dropped almost seven percent.

Mia:
Seven percent in one day, for an E.T.F.? That's huge.

Alex:
It is. And it all lands right before a big week: U.S. midterm elections tomorrow, and the October jobs report on Friday.

Mia:
Wait, wait, so Friday's chip sell-off, then an election, then jobs? That's a lot for one week.

Alex:
It really is. So today we're going through last week's market moves, the central banks, the key data, and the calendar, with times in U.S. Eastern and in U.T.C.

Alex:
We'll name the source as we go.

Mia:
And this is general information, not investment advice. Alright, let's start with the markets.

Alex:
Section one, stocks. Using Nasdaq's public data, the Nasdaq Composite closed Friday at twenty-five thousand, four hundred and thirty-seven. That's down about two percent on the week, and down two point nine percent on Friday alone.

Mia:
And the Nasdaq-one-hundred, the index behind the Q.Q.Q. E.T.F., was down about three and a half percent on Friday.

Alex:
Right. Q.Q.Q. itself fell from about seven hundred fifteen to six hundred ninety dollars on Friday. That's minus three point five percent.

Mia:
Ouch. What about the broad market? The S and P five hundred?

Alex:
The S and P five hundred E.T.F., ticker S.P.Y., closed at seven hundred fifty-five seventy-two. That's down one point eight percent on Friday, and about half a percent lower on the week.

Alex:
Exactly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, according to the Federal Reserve's data service, closed at fifty-one thousand, seven hundred seventy. Down about one percent on Friday, and under one percent on the week.

Mia:
Let's talk sectors, because that's where E.T.F. investors get surprised. Tech.

Alex:
The technology sector E.T.F., X.L.K., fell almost five percent on Friday. And the semiconductor E.T.F., S.M.H., fell about seven percent, to five hundred twenty-two dollars and forty-nine cents.

Mia:
And for the whole week, S.M.H. is only down about nine tenths of one percent. So it was a monster Friday after a calm week.

Alex:
That's a good point. It shows how fast things can turn. I'd say the chips really lost their, uh, processing power on Friday.

Mia:
Oh come on. That's a two out of ten.

Alex:
Hahaha, a two? I'll take it. That's my first pun of the day, and I'm keeping count.

Mia:
Of course you are. Go on, what about small caps?

Alex:
The small-cap E.T.F., I.W.M., was actually up one point three percent on the week, even though it fell one point six percent on Friday.

Mia:
And energy?

Alex:
The energy sector E.T.F., X.L.E., rose almost two percent on Friday and one percent on the week. That's the one part of the market that went the other way.

Mia:
Okay, now a look outside the U.S., at one country E.T.F. that's heavy in chips.

Alex:
That would be the iShares Korea E.T.F., ticker E.W.Y. It dropped about five and a half percent on Friday, to one fifty-two eighty-nine. Korea is heavy in chips, so it moved with the semiconductor sell-off. Still, it ended the week up about one percent.

Mia:
So same story, just a different flag. Okay, and what about the market's fear gauge, the V.I.X.?

Alex:
The latest value we have is from Thursday: seventeen point two, from the Chicago Board Options Exchange data on the Fed's data service. That was before Friday's drop, so we won't guess about Friday.

Mia:
Good. Never guess. Now, why did tech fall? Honestly, official data alone can't tell us.

Alex:
But the Bank of Canada gave a hint in its statement last Wednesday. It said, quote, "Equity and credit markets have been volatile due to uncertainty about the outlook for the AI sector."

Mia:
So even central banks are watching the A.I. trade.

Alex:
Right. And speaking of things that are volatile, let's move to bonds, because this is where it gets interesting for E.T.F. investors too.

Mia:
Alright, bonds. If you're new to this, a yield is basically the interest rate you earn on a bond. When bond prices go up, yields go down.

Alex:
According to the U.S. Treasury's daily yield curve, the ten-year yield ended Friday at four point nine four percent. That's down from five point oh zero a week earlier. On Wednesday it touched five point oh five.

Alex:
It is. The two-year yield fell more, from four point six nine to four point five six. The thirty-year was nearly flat at five point three one.

Mia:
So the gap between the ten-year and the two-year is thirty-eight basis points. A basis point is one hundredth of one percent.

Alex:
Right, so zero point three eight percentage points. That curve is positive, meaning long-term yields are higher than short-term yields. That's the normal shape.

Mia:
Wait, wait, hold on. Normal shape. So the curve is just, what, behaving itself?

Alex:
Hahaha, okay, yes. For once, the curve is behaving itself.

Mia:
And what did that do to bond E.T.F.s?

Alex:
The long-term Treasury E.T.F., T.L.T., rose about zero point six percent on the week, closing at eighty-one eighty-four. Small, but it did better than stocks.

Mia:
And the mortgage rate?

Alex:
Freddie Mac's weekly survey, on the Fed's data service, shows the thirty-year mortgage rate at seven point two four percent last Thursday. That's down from seven point three two the week before, but still high.

Mia:
Okay. And gold?

Alex:
The gold E.T.F., G.L.D., fell about three percent on the week, and three and a half percent on Friday alone.

Mia:
So stocks and gold both fell on the same day. Diversification doesn't protect you every day.

Alex:
Not every day, no. Let's talk oil.

Mia:
Oil. Yes. Energy prices are behind a lot of the inflation story, so this one matters.

Alex:
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Brent crude was one hundred twenty-three dollars and ten cents a barrel on Tuesday, October twenty-seventh. That's the latest official daily price available. It was one twenty-eight thirty the Friday before, so down about four percent.

Mia:
And the American benchmark, W.T.I.?

Alex:
W.T.I. was one oh three thirty-seven on the twenty-seventh, down about five point eight percent from one oh nine seventy-two the previous Friday.

Alex:
The E.I.A.'s weekly report, for the week ending October twenty-third, shows U.S. commercial crude stocks at four hundred ten point six million barrels. That's down one point nine million from the week before. Gasoline stocks rose by about three point nine million barrels.

Mia:
And the Bank of Canada said oil is high for a reason.

Alex:
Yes. It said, quote, "The conflict in the Middle East is now in its eighth month and there is no clear path to resolution."

Mia:
A serious one. Which takes us to the central banks. Alex, the big one first.

Alex:
The Federal Reserve. Last Wednesday, October twenty-eighth, the F.O.M.C. kept the federal funds rate at three and three-quarters to four percent.

Mia:
That's a hold. But the vote wasn't unanimous, right?

Alex:
Right, it was ten to two. According to the Fed's statement, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted against, because they preferred to raise the rate by a quarter point.

Mia:
So two officials wanted a rate hike. That's a hawkish hold. Hawkish means leaning toward higher rates to fight inflation.

Alex:
And the statement itself says, quote, "Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace" and "Inflation remains elevated."

Mia:
Let me explain "elevated." It means higher than normal. And the Fed's goal is two percent.

Alex:
Right. The next F.O.M.C. meeting is December eighth and ninth.

Mia:
Okay, next. The Bank of Canada.

Alex:
Also last Wednesday. It raised its rate by a quarter point to two point five percent. Its statement says inflation is "higher and more persistent" than in July, and that there could be a need to increase the policy rate further.

Alex:
Right. Then Thursday, the European Central Bank kept its three key rates unchanged. The deposit rate stays at two point five percent. The E.C.B. said energy prices have continued to rise, and that inflation in the euro area was three point eight percent in September.

Mia:
And on Friday, the Bank of Japan.

Alex:
The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at around one point two five percent. The vote was eight to one. One board member, Hajime Takata, wanted to raise it to one point five percent.

Mia:
One lone vote. Brave. But here's the E.T.F. connection: the Bank of Japan also announced something about E.T.F.s.

Alex:
Hahaha, the brave one. Yes. The B.O.J. holds Japanese E.T.F.s and has been selling them since January 2026, at about three hundred thirty billion yen a year. Now it will raise the pace to about eight hundred sixty billion yen a year, starting in January 2027.

Mia:
So the central bank will sell more E.T.F.s into the market. That's something Japan-focused investors should know.

Alex:
Right. Also, the Bank of Korea. That's not last week; it was on October twenty-second. It held its base rate at three percent. The vote was unanimous, seven to zero.

Mia:
And it said it will decide the timing and pace of further increases.

Alex:
Correct. So "further increases" suggests Korea may hike again. Inflation in Korea was two point nine percent in September, according to the Bank of Korea.

Mia:
And one more. The Bank of England meets this Thursday, November fifth. Its Bank Rate is currently three point seven five percent.

Alex:
So that's a lot of central banks, and a lot of hawks. Honestly, this week it's less of a policy meeting and more of a bird-watching trip.

Mia:
Oh no. Alex. That's, hmm. Okay, that one's a four out of ten, because I actually smiled.

Alex:
Hahaha, four! I'm climbing the ranks. Okay, let's go to the data, because there's a lot of it.

Mia:
The U.S. economy grew faster than you might expect. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said real G.D.P. grew at three point four percent annualized in the third quarter. In the second quarter it was two point two.

Alex:
Annualized means: if that quarter's pace lasted a full year. Also, consumer spending plus business investment, a measure called real final sales to private domestic purchasers, grew four point nine percent.

Mia:
That's strong. What about inflation in the same report?

Alex:
The B.E.A.'s price index for consumer spending, called P.C.E., rose two point one percent annualized in the third quarter. Excluding food and energy it was two point five percent.

Mia:
But the monthly report for September tells a different story.

Alex:
It does. The B.E.A. says the P.C.E. price index rose zero point five percent in September alone, and it's up three point six percent from a year ago. Core, excluding food and energy, was up zero point three percent on the month and three point one percent on the year.

Mia:
And Americans' spending?

Alex:
Spending rose zero point five percent, but after inflation, it was basically flat. And real disposable income, which is income after taxes and inflation, fell zero point three percent. The saving rate was three point eight percent.

Mia:
So people paid more, but bought about the same amount.

Alex:
Right. Then the consumer price index, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, for September. Prices rose zero point six percent on the month, and three point seven percent from a year ago.

Mia:
Gasoline was the culprit?

Alex:
It was a big part. The B.L.S. says gasoline rose nine point one percent in September and accounted for over half of the monthly increase. Energy prices overall are up twenty point four percent from a year ago.

Mia:
And core inflation?

Alex:
Core C.P.I., excluding food and energy, rose zero point three percent on the month, and two point six percent over the year.

Mia:
Okay, jobs. The September jobs report, from the B.L.S. Wait, am I ready for this? Let me finish my coffee first.

Alex:
Hahaha, go ahead. I'll wait. Actually, no, I won't, I'm already reading.

Mia:
Rude. Fine. Go.

Alex:
Employers added just twenty-nine thousand jobs. The unemployment rate was four point two percent. Average hourly earnings rose zero point one percent on the month and three point oh percent over the year.

Mia:
Three percent wage growth, with inflation at three point seven. So real wages are falling.

Alex:
That math checks out. Also, the B.L.S. revised July and August down by a combined sixty thousand jobs.

Mia:
And weekly jobless claims?

Alex:
One hundred ninety-four thousand for the week ended October twenty-fourth, from the Labor Department. That's low. So layoffs aren't rising.

Mia:
Slow hiring, few layoffs. Often called "low hire, low fire."

Alex:
Which sounds like a very polite breakup.

Mia:
Hahaha, okay, okay, that one's actually good. Six out of ten.

Alex:
Six! Put it on my record.

Mia:
Alright, what about Europe?

Alex:
And in Europe, Eurostat says the euro area economy grew zero point four percent in the third quarter, after zero point six in the second. France shrank by zero point one percent. Euro-area unemployment was six point five percent in September.

Mia:
Now let's pull it together for E.T.F. investors. Remember, this is general information.

Alex:
First, concentration. When the Nasdaq and chip stocks drop three to seven percent in a day, broad index E.T.F.s with lots of tech feel it too. S.P.Y. fell one point eight percent on Friday.

Mia:
Second, interest rates. With the ten-year around five percent, bond E.T.F.s with long duration are very sensitive. Duration is how much a bond's price moves when rates change.

Alex:
Third, energy. With oil above a hundred dollars and inflation at three point seven percent, central banks are leaning hawkish. That's not great for rate-sensitive assets.

Mia:
And fourth, don't forget currency. If you hold investments in a currency that isn't your own, the exchange rate matters too.

Alex:
As one example, according to the E.C.B.'s reference rates, the dollar is about thirteen hundred thirty-five Korean won. That's our calculation from the euro-won and euro-dollar rates. A week earlier, it was about thirteen twenty-four.

Mia:
So the dollar got a bit stronger against the won. And the euro was one point one one seven two against the dollar on Friday.

Alex:
Right. Now a quick "short, short" round, and I promise it's short.

Mia:
One. Canada: the Bank of Canada expects its inflation to rise to about three and a half percent by the end of the year.

Alex:
Two. Job openings in the U.S. were seven point oh seven nine million in August, from the B.L.S. The September number comes out tomorrow, and we'll get to the exact time in a second.

Mia:
Three. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was forty-eight point one in September, the latest on the Fed's data service.

Mia:
Okay, now the calendar, with times in U.S. Eastern and U.T.C. Daylight saving time ended in the U.S. on Sunday, so Eastern Time is now five hours behind U.T.C.

Alex:
First: Tuesday, November third in the U.S. is Election Day. All four hundred thirty-five House seats and thirty-five Senate seats are on the ballot. Results start arriving Tuesday evening, as polls close.

Mia:
Also Tuesday, the B.L.S. publishes the September job openings report, called JOLTS, at ten a.m. Eastern. That's fifteen hundred U.T.C.

Alex:
Wednesday, November fourth: U.S. trade balance for September, from the B.E.A., at eight thirty a.m. Eastern, thirteen thirty U.T.C. The Treasury also holds its quarterly refunding announcement that day. That tells us how much debt the government plans to sell.

Mia:
Thursday, November fifth: the Bank of England decision. Also the B.L.S. productivity and costs report for the third quarter, at eight thirty a.m. Eastern, thirteen thirty U.T.C.

Alex:
And the big one. Friday, November sixth. The October jobs report, at eight thirty a.m. Eastern, which is thirteen thirty U.T.C.

Mia:
Okay, so that's the jobs number to circle. And next Tuesday, November tenth: October C.P.I., at eight thirty a.m. Eastern, thirteen thirty U.T.C.

Alex:
So that's your week. Midterms, jobs, and a Bank of England decision. Cozy mood, with a very busy calendar.

Mia:
Hahaha, you brought it back around. Okay, one-line takeaway time.

Alex:
Tech and chips fell hard on Friday, central banks are leaning toward higher rates, so this week, check how much of your E.T.F. portfolio sits in tech and long-term bonds.

Mia:
Good. And for the record, my final pun score for you today is five out of ten.

Alex:
Five! Not bad for a Monday.

Mia:
Thanks for listening to Macro Morning, your daily macro and markets briefing for E.T.F. investors. Have a wonderful Monday, and wear your scarf.

Alex:
Hahaha, and keep your coffee close. See you tomorrow.

Sources (official / public data; facts only)

• Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, Oct 28, 2026: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm
• Federal Reserve: FOMC calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
• U.S. Treasury: Daily par yield curve rates: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve
• U.S. Treasury: Quarterly refunding statement (next announcement Nov 4): https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0590
• BEA: GDP (advance estimate), Q3 2026: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-3rd-quarter-2026
• BEA: Personal income and outlays, September 2026: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-september-2026
• BEA: Release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
• BLS: Employment Situation, September 2026: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
• BLS: Consumer Price Index, September 2026: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
• BLS: Release calendar: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/
• EIA: Brent and WTI spot prices: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/RBRTED.htm
• EIA: Weekly petroleum stocks: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm
• FRED (St. Louis Fed): index, VIX, jobless claims, mortgage rate series: https://fred.stlouisfed.org
• Nasdaq: historical quotes for indexes and ETFs: https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/quotes/historical
• European Central Bank: Monetary policy decisions, Oct 29, 2026: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html
• European Central Bank: Euro foreign exchange reference rates: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/index.en.html
• Eurostat: GDP flash estimate, Q3 2026: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-30102026-ap
• Bank of Japan: Statement on Monetary Policy, Oct 30, 2026: https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/index.htm
• Bank of Canada: Interest rate announcement, Oct 28, 2026: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/
• Bank of Korea: Monetary policy decision, Oct 22, 2026: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000634/view.do?menuNo=400423&nttId=11065825
• Bank of England: MPC dates: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates
• USAGov: Midterm elections: https://www.usa.gov/midterm-elections

Music: Chill 01 Sunrise (original)