Macro Mornings 💡

Macro Mornings 💡

By AlessandroBusinessInvesting
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Macro Mornings 💡 episodes

  • Fed Should now Pivot

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    • Inflation Down 🚨
    • Federal Reserve Pauses
    • Where Are We Going? (9 Must Critical Points) 👇
    • 🚨 Default Rates
    • China Stronger Than Expected Growth 👇
    • Financial Condition Index 👇
    • What The Market Are Pricing In? (8 Must Updates) 👇
    • S&P 500 👇
    • China Will Meet Or Even Exceed 5% Real (Gdp) 👇
    • Recession Risk

    11 min
  • A new bull market is ready to start?

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    • Profits Cycle Update
    • Economy wide profits tend to decline more than 20% from peak to recession trough
    • The FED is reaching the peak policy rate
    • Inflation fight not over
    • Living with Inflation
    • The Beginning of the End of the Fed Tightening Cycle and Future Equity Returns
    • What FED Funds Futures are telling us?
    • US Economic Growth Update
    • Economy’s resilience

    11 min
  • Macro Picture – US, China & EU

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    • Pushing inflation to target now calls for a major recession
    • US Economy, Outlook and Risks
    • China Economy, Outlook and Risks
    • EU Economy
    • Global Macro Outlook
    • What if the Banking Crisis Is Not Over?

    11 min
  • Economic cracks, Will it change the direction of Federal Reserve policy?

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    • Something broke. How the Fed and Markets could translate it into the economy?
    • Two more hike rates in US. Will be the last two ones?
    • U.S. stocks and economy update
    • Fastest pace of rate hikes in decades since 1980. Are we ready for the consequences?
    • Is a credit crunch looming?
    • Global stocks and economy among the Group of Seven (G7) economies
    • The impact of tighter monetary policy on credit conditions
    • S&P 500 Index Financials industry-level composition

    11 min
  • More dovish or more hawkish?

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    • How the markets are reassessing the interest rates

    • Let’s see the inverted curves are an accurate predictor of fate

    • Little update on financial sectors and their cyclicality

    • The tradeoff for the Central Banks between crushing activity or living with inflation

    • US personal consumption expenditures

    • Some economy updates

    • BoE hikes interest rates after surprise surge in inflation

    • Japan’s inflation remains high, but price pressures ease

      • 11 min
    • Financial cracks seem arrived, and now?

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      • Update Macroeconomic Overview

      • Financial cracks, is arrived or not yet?

      • Macro outlook and interest rates cycle

      • Tighter credit conditions

      • It's not the 2008 all over again

      • Tightest FED policy since 1980s

      • Employment & Consumer Confidence spending

        • 10 min
      • Central Banks – What are the lessons from the 1970s?

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        • Will (and can) central banks tolerate stronger growth?
        • 500,000 Jobs created what it means?
        • What are the lessons from the 1970s?
        • Shift in monetary policy vs 1970s
        • Highlights Ahead, what we are waiting for?
        • Biggest US Bank failure since 2008
        • Growth vs. Value
          • 11 min
        • Review of markets during the first months of 2023

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          • Review of markets over February 2023
          • Yielding curve movements
          • Some Economic News
          • JP Morgan view
          • Global Equities & Non-US developed market equities
          • Currency update
          • Is a good landing possible?
            • 9 min
          • Fixed Income Update – How Market Concentration Impacts Performance

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            • Fixed income markets tell us a story about the health and potential future direction of the economy
            • Why should we monitor the credit spread on fixed income?
            • Let’s make a fast update on Sovereign Bond Yields
            • US inflation remains elevated
            • How Market Concentration Impacts Performance
              • 12 min
            • Market Perspectives – Rising odds of a higher interest rate

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              • How can we justify a 22x S&P 500 Index P/E?
              • Inflation set to become more digestible
              • Why the rally in equities looks overdone?
              • What could equity investors do to limit downside risk?
              • Rising odds of a higher interest rate
                • 11 min

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