This week, the Macrocast team is joined by frequent contributor John Dick of CivicScience for a read on the U.S. consumer heading into the fall. Sentiment bounced back after a steep prior decline and household financial health improved again, but the retail picture remains uneven: Walmart guided to its slowest same-store sales growth in years while Target surprised to the upside. 

The team discusses strong back-to-school spending, early holiday intentions, rising credit card balances among younger consumers, and how retailers may deploy tariff refunds into lower prices. The team closes with progress toward a U.S.-Canada tariff agreement and the week ahead: payroll revisions, GDP, core PCE, and NVIDIA earnings.

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Forbes Tate Partners

Markets Policy Partners 

CivicScience

This week on the Macrocast, John Fagan is out, so Ed Hill and Brendan Walsh hold down the fort, breaking down the latest inflation data and what it could mean for the Fed's next move. They also dig into a weaker-than-expected retail sales report and recent earnings from Tapestry and Cisco, with Cisco's numbers pointing to continued strength in AI-driven demand.

The conversation turns to a major financing push tied to AI infrastructure that's drawing attention across markets, along with a look at a relatively quiet week on the geopolitical front.

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Forbes Tate Partners

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This week, the Macrocast team unpacks a July jobs report that missed expectations by a wide margin, with payrolls declining even as the unemployment rate ticked lower, a divergence Brendan partially attributes to workers exiting the labor force. The discussion turns to the hardest-hit sectors, a surprising bright spot in manufacturing, and what stagnant wage growth signals about the broader economy.

John and Brendan explore how the data shifted rate expectations for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and pulled Treasury yields down, alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's critique of the Fed's communication strategy and the joint U.S.-Japan intervention to support the yen. Ed rounds out the episode with the latest from Washington on government funding, crypto legislation, and a Senate bill on college athletics facing pushback from major conferences.

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Forbes Tate Partners

Markets Policy Partners

This week, the Macrocast team examines the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting, where Chair Kevin Walsh held rates steady while maintaining his stance against forward guidance, a decision that drove Treasury yields higher and weighed on equities. The team discusses why the rate hold met expectations, yet a lack of clarity on inflation metrics and the Fed's decision-making framework left markets and analysts wanting more.

The episode also covers steady policy from the Bank of Japan and Bank of England, the market impact of a major hedge fund's liquidation of AI-related positions, and MAG7 earnings that showed strong profitability alongside growing scrutiny of capital spending and reporting transparency. The team closes with a look at economic data on both sides of the Atlantic and key developments in Washington on government funding and Russia sanctions.

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Forbes Tate Partners

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This week on the Macrocast, John Fagan and Ed Hill examine the renewed U.S.-Iran conflict and its effect on oil markets, with Brent crude climbing above $100 a barrel. The discussion turns to the Federal Reserve, where Chair Kevin Warsh's approach of "constructive ambiguity" leaves markets uncertain ahead of the next meeting, alongside notable policy moves from the ECB and Bank of Japan.

The episode also covers the Trump administration's latest tariff announcements and their firmer legal basis, along with key developments in Washington: progress on the NDAA, reconciliation, and a continuing resolution, plus new obstacles facing the Senate's crypto legislation.

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Forbes Tate Partners

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This week on the Macrocast, Brendan and Ed were joined by frequent guest John Dick of CivicScience to review his latest Economic Sentiment Index. John discussed the continued improvement of consumer sentiment, indicating that, while still below last year's readings, the consumer continues to feel increasingly comfortable with their economic status. The group discussed how this summer's readings seem to reflect a generally positive cultural and economic vibe, with a record-breaking Prime Day from last month, positive vibes from an exciting and successful World Cup, and celebration of America's 250th birthday. John also commented on small changes in the partisan identification of voters, with a small increase in voters moving away from both political parties to register as nonaffiliated.

John also identified changes in federal government policies related to student loan repayment as a potential warning sign in the months ahead. He also defended the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment readings, which have received some criticism online and, in some newspapers, expressing admiration for their methodology and transparency.

Brendan and Ed discussed the week's bank earnings, which reported blowout capital-markets and investment-banking results but also reflected a strong consumer, consistent with ESI readings.

Finally, the group discussed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's semiannual testimony before Congress. While Chair Warsh didn't provide any expectations or plans for changes in interest rates, he did provide a detailed description of the Working Groups intended to provide input on his plans to revise Fed operations and monetary policy decision-making. He also defended the concept of Fed independence and renewed his calls for decreasing the size of the Fed balance sheet.

John closed the podcast with some examples of ESI data points that could indicate continued optimism among younger consumers.

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This week on Macrocast, the team breaks down Chair Warsh's first moves at the helm of a divided FOMC and what the June meeting minutes reveal about the growing rift between hawks and doves. Market odds on a rate hike remain low for now but are expected to climb in the months ahead. The episode digs into what's driving that shift.

The team covers mixed economic signals, with strong ISM services data colliding against declining manufacturing employment. Also on the agenda: the resumption of US-Iran hostilities after their ceasefire ended, sending oil prices higher, though still holding relatively steady. On Capitol Hill, the episode covers the Senate leadership shakeup amid Senator McConnell's absence and what it means for the SAVE Act and upcoming appropriations decisions.

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Forbes Tate Partners

Markets Policy Partners 

This week on the Macrocast, the team analyzes the latest jobs report numbers, including labor market pressures and a surprising contraction in the leisure and hospitality sector. The discussion then turns to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's debut at a central bank conference in Portugal, where his focus on inflation and a lack of forward guidance left markets weighing potential rate hikes ahead of the midterm elections. The episode also covers key policy updates from Washington, including the bipartisan passage of a housing bill through Congress, before closing with a look at the World Cup.

From the entire team, Happy Fourth of July, and stay cool in the heat! 

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Forbes Tate Partners

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Financial markets had a turbulent week, and the Macrocast team is sorting through the noise. Chip prices are climbing, semiconductor valuations look stretched, and investors are pulling back on AI-adjacent bets. Brendan explains what's driving the selloff and whether it's a correction or something more serious.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is keeping rates elevated while inflation stays sticky, and the newly announced Iran oil deal hasn't delivered the oil price relief markets expected. Abroad, Prime Minister Starmer's government faces a mounting fiscal crisis and Japan's yen has fallen to its weakest level in four decades. Ed closes with the latest from Capitol Hill: housing legislation is headed to the president's desk, with crypto regulation and the defense authorization bill next in line.

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In this episode, Macrocast regular John Dick of CivicScience joins the team to unpack the latest consumer sentiment numbers. The Economic Sentiment Index just hit its highest point since mid-April, retail sales came in nearly double expectations, and yet housing starts dropped to a six-year low. So what's actually going on with the American consumer?

They also get into how much sports and cultural moments like the World Cup are moving spending patterns, plus Ed's read on new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish debut and what it means for rates by year-end. They close out on the Iran deal and why consumers aren't exactly celebrating.

For more about the hosts, please see below: 

Forbes Tate Partners

Markets Policy Partners 

CivicScience