Macrocast by FTP & Markets Policy Partners

This week on the Macrocast, CivicScience’s John Dick joins the team to discuss economic sentiment, declining optimism about personal finances, and why holiday spending plans remain strong despite consumer concerns. They also explore consumer credit trends, buy now, pay later options, and how rising interest rates are affecting major purchases.

With the midterms approaching, the conversation turns to Americans’ political mood, with Ed Hill weighing in on campaign fundraising and turnout expectations. The team also covers Treasury market volatility, expectations for the Fed’s next rate hike, and recent developments in AI stocks.

For more about the hosts, please see below:

For more about the hosts, please see below:

FTP

Markets Policy Partners 

CivicScience

This week on the Macrocast, the team breaks down a weaker-than-expected September jobs report, with just 29,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate ticking up as the labor force expanded. They also discuss softer wage growth, the latest PCE inflation data, and why markets have pulled back expectations for an October Federal Reserve rate hike.

With the midterms approaching, the conversation turns to the policy issues likely to shape the months ahead. The team covers energy-market uncertainty and the potential consequences of a U.S. crude oil export ban, pressure in European debt markets, and recent movement on Capitol Hill around permitting reform and college sports legislation.

For more about the hosts, please see below:

FTP

Markets Policy Partners 

This week, the Macrocast team examines renewed turbulence in the Treasury market as longer-term yields climb amid stronger economic data, persistent inflation concerns, weak auction demand, and a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. John, Brendan, and Ed Hill unpack what is driving the latest move in rates and what it could mean for markets.

The team also turns to the Trump-Xi summit, the outlook for energy markets, and growing geopolitical risks. They discuss the latest developments in U.S.-China relations, the continued momentum behind AI-related stocks, and the economic and policy developments to watch in the weeks ahead.

For more about the hosts, please see below:

FTP

Markets Policy Partners 

The Fed raised rates again, but the bigger story may be what comes next. Trevor from FTP fills in for Ed this week to break down the latest data, the pressure building around the October meeting, and why markets are watching every signal from Washington.

The team also looks at the economic trouble brewing overseas, from China’s slowdown and property-market struggles to trade tensions with China and Canada. It is a fast-moving week for the global economy, and the Macrocast has the context behind the headlines.

For more about the hosts, please see below:

FTP

Markets Policy Partners 

This week, the Macrocast team is joined by frequent contributor John Dick of CivicScience to take the pulse of the U.S. consumer heading into the fall. The latest Economic Sentiment Index showed only a slight improvement, reflecting a consumer who is still unsettled. Americans feel conflicted about their own finances and the job market but remain downbeat on the broader economy. With inflation still weighing on household budgets, caution is creeping into decisions around major purchases, investments, and financial security.

The team also breaks down the latest inflation data and what it could mean for the Federal Reserve’s next move. They dig into the Treasury’s proposed bond buyback program and what it could signal for Washington’s fiscal posture and the national debt. The episode closes with a look at central-bank developments in Europe and Japan.

For more about the hosts, please see below:

FTP

Markets Policy Partners 

CivicScience

This week's episode covers August's jobs report, which beat expectations with solid job growth and upward revisions to prior months. 

The strong data pushed up the odds of a September rate hike, though dovish comments from Governor Christopher Waller left the team divided on the Fed's next move. They also previewed upcoming PPI and CPI data, plus global pressures like elevated EU inflation and continued supply chain strain.

On geopolitics, the team discussed rising China tensions ahead of the Trump-Xi summit. Ed Hill wrapped up with a Capitol Hill update: the House's continuing resolution avoiding a shutdown, prospects for the Clarity Act, and early betting market odds on the midterms.

For more about the hosts, please see below: 

FTP

This week, the Macrocast team breaks down Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, where he flagged persistent above-target inflation even as he acknowledged a resilient economy, a clearer signal than the Fed has sent in months. Markets responded by pricing in higher odds of a September rate hike, though the long end of the Treasury curve moved more than policymakers would like, complicating the picture.

They cover Treasury Secretary Bessent's intervention in the long end Treasury market, new sanctions on Iranian financial networks, and close with what's ahead: next week's jobs report, which could be the deciding factor on whether the September hike actually happens. 

For more about the hosts, please see below: 

FTP

Markets Policy Partners 

This week, the Macrocast team is joined by frequent contributor John Dick of CivicScience for a read on the U.S. consumer heading into the fall. Sentiment bounced back after a steep prior decline and household financial health improved again, but the retail picture remains uneven: Walmart guided to its slowest same-store sales growth in years while Target surprised to the upside. 

The team discusses strong back-to-school spending, early holiday intentions, rising credit card balances among younger consumers, and how retailers may deploy tariff refunds into lower prices. The team closes with progress toward a U.S.-Canada tariff agreement and the week ahead: payroll revisions, GDP, core PCE, and NVIDIA earnings.

For more about the hosts, please see below: 

Forbes Tate Partners

Markets Policy Partners 

CivicScience

This week on the Macrocast, John Fagan is out, so Ed Hill and Brendan Walsh hold down the fort, breaking down the latest inflation data and what it could mean for the Fed's next move. They also dig into a weaker-than-expected retail sales report and recent earnings from Tapestry and Cisco, with Cisco's numbers pointing to continued strength in AI-driven demand.

The conversation turns to a major financing push tied to AI infrastructure that's drawing attention across markets, along with a look at a relatively quiet week on the geopolitical front.

For more about the hosts, please see below: 

Forbes Tate Partners

Markets Policy Partners

This week, the Macrocast team unpacks a July jobs report that missed expectations by a wide margin, with payrolls declining even as the unemployment rate ticked lower, a divergence Brendan partially attributes to workers exiting the labor force. The discussion turns to the hardest-hit sectors, a surprising bright spot in manufacturing, and what stagnant wage growth signals about the broader economy.

John and Brendan explore how the data shifted rate expectations for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and pulled Treasury yields down, alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's critique of the Fed's communication strategy and the joint U.S.-Japan intervention to support the yen. Ed rounds out the episode with the latest from Washington on government funding, crypto legislation, and a Senate bill on college athletics facing pushback from major conferences.

For more about the hosts, please see below: 

Forbes Tate Partners

Markets Policy Partners