RenMac discusses Musk’s government shutdown, the politics behind Powell’s statement, Beta’s vulnerability, the decaying wall-of-worry and the potential for a currency crisis.

RenMac discusses the latest inflation data, why the data may be trending better for bonds than the consensus, how equity factors are set-up, the power vacuum in Syria, what’s behind Trump’s inauguration invite of Xi’s and Chinese equities.

RenMac discusses the latest payroll data, bubbling animal spirits and sentiment, an update to our market cycle clock and pardon implications and precedents.

RenMac discusses the mismatch between housing data and consumer confidence, the motivations behind Trump’s initial tariff salvo, how seasonality and sentiment are likely to play out in equities and the vulnerability created by the weak Russian Ruble.

In early 2021, I had the opportunity to catch up with a good friend of mine through the years, Scott Bessent. Given Scott's new role as incoming Treasury Secretary under President elect Trump, I thought it might be helpful to understand how Scott thinks about and sees the world. Here's our conversation from 2021.

RenMac discusses:

1. Latest developments with Trump appointments
2. The horserace for Treasury secretary
3. Ongoing weakness in labor demand
4. Low bulls in Treasuries are bullish
5. Impact of political appointments on specific sectors

RenMac discusses latest inflation data and the impact on the Fed, what labor market’s are telling us about trajectory, Latest Trump nominations, Bitcoin Breakout, Bullish cyclical call stands in stark contrast to weak semiconductors.

Jeff, Neil, and Steve discuss:

1. Expectations between now and election
2. Accuracy of betting markets in defense of price discovery
3. The big losers
4. Path of unified government
5. Inflation expectations
6. Cyclical trade and market’s message
7. Labor market conditions
8. Powell’s future
9. Importance of personnel to discern direction forward

RenMac talks about the payroll surprise, the importance of NC and PA to Trump and Harris, elevated equity volatility and quiescent credit spreads and the Fed’s path into year’s end

RenMac discusses the process of price discovery in the political prediction markets, the current state of the horserace, the outlook for employment, why Kevin Warsh is off-base in his criticism of the Fed’s September decision, and market seasonality.