RenMac

Jeff, Neil, and Steve discuss:

1. Expectations between now and election
2. Accuracy of betting markets in defense of price discovery
3. The big losers
4. Path of unified government
5. Inflation expectations
6. Cyclical trade and market’s message
7. Labor market conditions
8. Powell’s future
9. Importance of personnel to discern direction forward

RenMac talks about the payroll surprise, the importance of NC and PA to Trump and Harris, elevated equity volatility and quiescent credit spreads and the Fed’s path into year’s end

RenMac discusses the process of price discovery in the political prediction markets, the current state of the horserace, the outlook for employment, why Kevin Warsh is off-base in his criticism of the Fed’s September decision, and market seasonality.

RenMac discusses this week’s data, the prospects of a shadow Fed Chair, the latest polls and candidates’ performance, China and how the overbought condition in yields tilts us toward cyclicality.

RenMac discusses:

1. The latest shift in polls in the continued razor-thin election. 
2. The latest inflation data and how the sequence of jobs and inflation is impacting the Fed’s trajectory.
3. The overbought condition in yields and the marginal benefit it should have for cyclicals vs defensive names.
4. The bullish spread between equity volatility (VIX) and corporate credit
5. Bitcoin Commercial Hedger positioning.

RenMac discusses the latest payroll surprise, the impact Helene is having on polling, China’s historic market strength, the improvement of cyclicals vs defensives, political October surprises and the upcoming inflation data.

Neil cameos from Oktoberfest while Steve and Jeff discuss the equity strength in China, Kamala’s border visit, the empty promises made by both camps prior to elections and the marginal improvement in bitcoin.

RenMac discusses the expected 50bps rate cut, implications for future cuts, the trajectory of the data going forward, the market impact and the latest polling around battleground states.

RenMac discusses why 50bps makes the most sense, the impact the debate is likely to have on the election, the changes in capital requirements at banks, and some bright spots in energy and silver.

RenMac discusses the weak August employment report, why the next decision really is less about consensus and more about what Powell thinks, a preview of the Trump/Harris debate, and the defensive nature in the equity markets.