RenMac debates whether the Fed’s planned cuts can offset aslowing labor market and rising unemployment, as markets bet liquidity will keep equities buoyant. The team discusses the deepening government shutdown and its missing “pain point,” the global drivers behind gold’s parabolic surge, andWashington’s growing industrial policy push into rare earths. They close by flagging warning signs in semiconductor sentiment and how shifting cyclical trends could define year-end market moves.

RenMac recaps client takeaways from London and Chicago,weighs the rising odds of a prolonged shutdown with Trump threatening permanent layoffs, and breaks down how tariffs, industrial policy, and Big Pharma deals are reshaping the landscape. The team flags complacency in recession odds,highlights sentiment risks in semis, and explains why healthcare’s pain may be setting up a long-term bottom — all while keeping an eye on discretionary trends, gold, and the Fed’s next move.

RenMac welcomes guest Sam Ro as the team unpacks Feddynamics as Trump appointees push aggressive cuts, rising odds of a government shutdown with threats of federal layoffs, and the latest wave of sectoral tariffs. They debate whether cooling labor markets could paradoxically boostmargins, explore the challenges of measuring productivity amid AI adoption, and assess what narrowing market breadth signals for equities heading into Q4.

RenMac discusses the Fed’s risk-management cut and the political dynamics shaping Powell’s next moves, why the internal divisions on rate cuts matter for markets, and what the latest housing and construction data signal for jobs andgrowth. The team also looks at how small caps and cyclicals are powering breadth in the market, whether momentum can outlast beta, and how tariff politics and regulatory shifts add new wrinkles to the outlook.

They say some people have a face for radio.

You? You've got a face for Off-Script.

Send us your question via video or audio clip for the RenMac Mailbag.

Fame optional. Hats guaranteed.

https://start.renmac.com/renmac-mailbag-video