Dan Nathan sits down with Rick Heitzmann, co-founder and partner at FirstMark Capital, to kick off a new Okay, Computer. series on AI investing. They dig into the circular financing behind the AI infrastructure boom — from Nvidia backstopping Apollo's private credit for xAI to Meta's off-balance-sheet data center deals with KKR and Blue Owl — plus the shift from "tokenmaxxing" to an efficiency era, the rise of Chinese open-source models, memory stock froth, and what's next for the IPO market after SpaceX.

Show Notes

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The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Today we’re in the East Village, having cocktails at Please Don’t Tell - one of the most iconic cocktail bars in New York City.

PDT is currently run by award-winning bartender Jeff Bell. Jeff started as a bar back in 2010, and now he owns the place. How about that?

Timecodes

00:00 Why Premium Brands Are Winning

00:50 Standing Table Opening

01:30 Inside PDT: New York's Iconic Speakeasy

02:47 Meet Jeff Bell & Richard Betts

03:35 How PDT Became a Global Cocktail Destination

05:29 Becoming a Master Sommelier

08:03 The Business of Restaurants & Hospitality

10:59 Building a Luxury Tequila Brand

14:04 Are Younger People Drinking Less?

16:03 The Secret to Building Authentic Brands

19:27 Social Media, Hospitality & Customer Experience

24:16 Advice for Future Entrepreneurs

25:38 Closing Thoughts

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Standing Table is made possible through our continued partnership with Apex Fintech Solutions.

Apex Fintech Solutions provides the tools and services that enable hundreds of clients to launch, scale, and support digital investing for tens of millions of end investors. The company provides essential infrastructure and a comprehensive ecosystem of cloud-based products to enable and streamline trading, wealth management, cost basis, tax reporting, and, through its subsidiary Apex Clearing™, custody and clearing.

For more information, visit the Apex Fintech Solutions website: https://apexfintechsolutions.com/

LinkedIn: apex-fintech

RiskReversal Pod for more from Guy and Dan: https://apple.co/3RzvgpD

RiskReversal Media channel for more episodes and content: @riskreversalmedia

The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.​​

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami break down a wild week across markets — memory stocks in freefall, Google's brutal two-day selloff, and why China's AI models are closing the gap without top-tier Nvidia chips.

Micron cratered from its all-time high of $1,255 to $800 in a matter of weeks, and the DRAM ETF whipsawed right along with it. Guy and Dan dig into whether this is a routine flush or something bigger. Google sold off 10% after Gemini news broke the hyperscaler rotation narrative, and they debate whether the moat still holds given decelerating margins and ballooning capex.

On the China front: DeepSeek raised $7B at a $52B valuation, Alibaba announced $50B in capex, and Moonshot's new model is narrowing the gap with US labs — all without access to Nvidia's most advanced chips. Dan and Guy also revisit the Nvidia-vs-component-suppliers margin debate, unpack Apple's surprising rally into earnings, and call the technical line in the sand on Netflix after its cash flow miss cut the stock in half.

Plus: a quick check on crude, refiners hitting new highs, and what's next for energy names like Exxon and ConocoPhillips.

Show Notes

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FOLLOW US
YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia
Instagram: @riskreversalmedia
Twitter: @RiskReversal
LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Apex Fintech Solutions provides the tools and services that enable hundreds of clients to launch, scale, and support digital investing for tens of millions of end investors. The company provides essential infrastructure and a comprehensive ecosystem of cloud-based products to enable and streamline trading, wealth management, cost basis, tax reporting, and, through its subsidiary Apex Clearing™, custody and clearing.

LEARN MORE: https://apexfintechsolutions.com/?utm_source=Risk+Reversal&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_campaign=701PJ00000fnXhaYAE

Dan and Guy speak with legendary short seller Jim Chanos about extreme market dispersion beneath an S&P near all-time highs, rising retail speculation, and a new wave of IPOs, secondaries, and insider selling. Chanos explains his hedged 40-stock model portfolio and argues the AI build-out is driving a torrent of equity and debt financing, often off balance sheet, into long-lived assets with uncertain economics. He warns that long-term projects are being justified by spot pricing, while “construction in progress” accounting and depreciation timing defer costs, inflating earnings and masking obsolescence. He compares today to—and “worse” than—the late-1990s infrastructure boom, highlights falling incremental returns on hyperscaler invested capital, notes shifting neo-cloud business models toward “asset light,” and says bull markets price promises while ignoring financial reality.

—
FOLLOW US
YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia
Instagram: @riskreversalmedia
Twitter: @RiskReversal
LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Checkout WAWD on Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/OTT

Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today!

Danny Moses welcomes Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel back to the On The Tape podcast as Q2 earnings begin amid renewed inflation concerns, Middle East tensions, and continued AI-driven equity enthusiasm. They discuss the Fed being “in a box” between cooling inflation, housing softness, and rising government interest costs, and use Kalshi markets to frame views, including expecting no Fed hike before 2027. The conversation shifts to oil staying elevated due to war-driven disruptions, tight refined-product markets, and high crack spreads amid limited U.S. refining capacity, with mentions of core energy holdings. They cover gold’s pullback from 5,500 to around 4,000, the role of central-bank and China buying, and momentum-driven market structure. They debate AI’s CapEx cycle, margin benefits versus later unemployment risks, and then examine midterm election implications and Brazil’s election odds. The episode ends with Open Championship Kalshi picks and a Substack trial offer.

Timecodes

0:00 - Intro

3:00 - The Fed

8:30 - Energy

16:30 - Gold

23:30 - AI & Jobs

31:30 - Elections & National Debt

41:30 - British Open Picks

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ABOUT THE SHOW

For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.

Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34

The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami host Ben Emons of FedWatch Advisors to discuss shifting Fed communication under Kevin Warsh, including a push away from strong forward guidance like recent comments from Waller. Emons distinguishes disinflation from deflation, noting a negative month-to-month CPI driven by energy declines but warning energy has already rebounded, making expectations volatile. He highlights “funflation” in categories like recreation and food away from home alongside broad underlying price pressures. The group debates whether AI is inflationary, with Emons pointing to supply-constrained memory prices and AI-related investment as drivers, and discusses IBM’s sharp drop after clients shifted CapEx toward servers, storage, and memory. They also cover Middle East Strait closures adding an oil war premium, positioning risks across crude, rates, and equities, yen weakness and potential BOJ action, and heightened volatility and leverage in a “Parabolic Seven” chip/memory cohort that could trigger broader market rotation and tightening financial conditions.

—
FOLLOW US
YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia
Instagram: @riskreversalmedia
Twitter: @RiskReversal
LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us

Guy Adami and Liz Thomas discuss recent “momentum on, momentum off” volatility, with semiconductors swinging and earnings season starting with banks that have traded well despite a flattening yield curve. They debate rising long-term Treasury yields, arguing hikes aren’t appropriate in a slowing economy and tying yield pressure to Middle East conflict, oil inflation fears, and U.S. fiscal indiscipline, with the bond market challenging the Fed’s 2% target under new Chair Kevin Warsh. They touch on private equity weakness versus tight credit spreads, whether credit cycles still exist amid repeated policy “saves,” and upcoming CPI (3.8% expected) and PPI (6.2% expected). They flag Japan’s weakening yen and stressed bond market as an underappreciated risk, review gold’s move as central-bank and retail flows shift, and outline a second-half view: stocks higher but volatile, with opportunities in Mag Seven, financials, healthcare, commodities, and energy.

—
FOLLOW US
YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia
Instagram: @riskreversalmedia
Twitter: @RiskReversal
LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Dan Nathan sits down with Peter Boockvar (CIO, One Point BFG Wealth Partners) and Louis-Vincent Gave (CEO, Gavekal) to break down the AI arms race, the dollar's structural decline, and where the smart money is rotating next.

They dig into China's "Toyota vs. Ferrari" AI strategy and why cheap, open-source models threaten to commoditize OpenAI and Anthropic's trillion-dollar valuations, the sustainability of a $6.5 trillion AI CapEx buildout, and why record semiconductor concentration in global indexes is creating a crowded, fragile trade. The conversation moves through the energy crunch driving refining shortages worldwide, the case for gold and commodity stockpiling in a post-Hormuz world, and why long-term bond markets in France, the UK, and Japan may crack before the US does. They close with where Boockvar and Gave are actually putting money to work right now: financials and cyclicals over crowded tech.

—
FOLLOW US
YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia
Instagram: @riskreversalmedia
Twitter: @RiskReversal
LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami open the podcast by framing the day’s key market story as sharp weakness and heightened volatility in memory, chips, and semi equipment, citing rapid reversals in names like Micron and Applied Materials and opaque guidance from Samsung. They discuss whether the AI build-out is increasingly debt-funded—highlighting Amazon and Oracle debt issuance and private credit deals—and reference a “Groundbreaker” piece shared by Jim Chanos arguing investors miss second-derivative slowdowns and that AI resembles a credit-driven real estate cycle more like 2008 than 2000’s patient equity bubble. They note a rotation bounce into software (Microsoft, Palantir, Salesforce, Adobe, ServiceNow) but question sustainability, and debate SpaceX’s fast-tracked inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 after its IPO, the stock’s poor trading, possible broader IPO implications, and an upcoming insider share unlock

—
FOLLOW US
YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia
Instagram: @riskreversalmedia
Twitter: @RiskReversal
LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

For today’s episode, we look back at our conversation with Jenny Just and Matt Hulsizer at Apex’s Ascend Innovation Summit.

Jenny and Matt are co-founders of PEAK6 Investments. In 2012, they purchased the company that became Apex and helped shape it into the successful fintech company we know today. Oh and get this - they aren’t just partners in business, they’re also partners in LIFE. Married since 2003.

Over the years, they’ve built a shared vision that technology can make financial markets more accessible, more efficient, and more inclusive. That vision ultimately led to Apex.

We discuss the importance of risk taking, financial literacy, and partnerships when building businesses and trading.

Timecodes 

00:59 Meet Jenny Just & Matt Hulsizer

01:49 From Trading Floor to Business Partners

04:22 Building Peak6 & 28 Years Without a Losing Year

05:38 Why Technology Changed Trading Forever

06:45 Learning to Take Risks in Business & Life

09:20 The Origin Story of Apex Fintech Solutions

13:32 The Importance of Financial Literacy for Young People

16:57 Trading Lessons That Built Great Companies

18:21 Partnership, Marriage & Making Better Decisions Together

20:31 Final Advice: AI Investing & Teaching the Next Generation

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#investing #stocks #stockmarket #ApexFintechSolutions

Standing Table is made possible through our continued partnership with Apex Fintech Solutions.