Guy Adami and Dan Nathan host Neil Dutta, partner and Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research, on the RiskReversal Podcast. Neil shares his career journey, his time at NYU, and his experience working with David Rosenberg and Ethan Harris at Merrill Lynch. The conversation covers current economic issues including the US housing market recession, labor market dynamics, and the impact of restrictive monetary policy. Neil also discusses the significant investment in AI and its potential to boost GDP growth. The discussion touches on the Federal Reserve's focus on inflation over employment, the global interest rate environment, and the potential risks concerning AI investment momentum. Neil offers his market outlook, focusing on defensive strategies and the potential future direction of interest rates.

Show Notes

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami dive into the recent remarks of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Federal Reserve policies, analyzing conflicting viewpoints on job data and interest rate cuts. The conversation highlights concerns about politicization of economic data, historical inflation patterns, and the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve. They also touch on fluctuating market indicators like the VIX, crude oil, and Bitcoin prices. The episode concludes with a broader reflection on the impact of political actions on market stability and institutional trust.

Dan welcomes Peter Boockvar, CIO at OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners, to discuss market reactions to recent economic data. The episode covers the market's positive response to the latest CPI reading, speculations about Fed rate cuts, and the impact of tariffs on inflation and economic growth. They delve into the persistent inflation rate of 3% and discuss factors that could re-accelerate economic growth despite ongoing trade wars. They also explore the implications of sustained AI capital spending and the role of central bank policies in juicing the economy amid tariff pressures. The conversation highlights the stock market's insatiable appetite for risk and potential future economic scenarios.

Liz Thomas of SoFi joins Guy on the podcast. They discuss the Milwaukee Brewers’ impressive season and the dedication of their fans amidst local flooding. The conversation pivots to the stock market's resilience and the potential for volatility with upcoming CPI and PPI data. Thomas explains the Federal Reserve's focus on controlling inflation despite a stable labor market and the political pressures on economic data integrity. The discussion covers corporate earnings, the impact of insider sales and stock buybacks, and the importance of diversifying investments in undervalued sectors like healthcare and energy. Thomas emphasizes staying informed and prepared for potential market shifts.

Show Notes

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Dan Nathan welcomes David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research on the latest pod. The pair discuss various economic issues including U.S. trade policies, tariff implementations, and their impacts under President Trump's administration. David offers insights on the global repercussions of these tariffs, particularly focusing on their implications for inflation, domestic importers, consumers, and overall economic health. The conversation also explores how the Fed might respond to these pressures, potential market outcomes, and risk management strategies. David shares his outlook on the stock market, emphasizing the highs of the S&P 500, concerns about valuation concentration, and his preference for investments in non-U.S. equities and specific sectors like utilities, aerospace defense, and precious metals.

Show Notes

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Dan Nathan is joined by Brett Winton, Chief Futurist at ARK Invest. Brett shares insights about his role, the evolution of ARK Invest, and the focus on disruptive innovation platforms such as AI, robotics, energy storage, public blockchains, and biotech. They discuss the impact of large-scale investments in AI, the future trajectory of companies like Microsoft and Tesla, and the transformative potential of AI in various sectors. Brett articulates his vision for AI integration in enterprises, the future of autonomous driving, and the role of companies like OpenAI in the broader market landscape.

Links

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Guy Adami and Peter Boockvar discuss the impact of tariffs on earnings and market performance, stressing the need to remain unbiased about their benefits or drawbacks. The discussion shifts to declining rig counts and their potential influence on crude oil prices, highlighting U.S. shale production's response to OPEC's quota adjustments. The panel addresses the geopolitical ramifications of U.S. threats to tariff countries buying Russian oil, particularly China and India, noting how these actions could lead to oil price volatility. The dialogue also explores China's leverage over the U.S. due to their control of rare earth magnets, which are critical for both commercial and military applications. The episode concludes with an overview of the current market sentiment, driven by AI tech trades and a buy-the-dip mentality, contrasting it with the fragmented performance of smaller market segments.

Dan Nathan and Guy Adam discuss various market dynamics affecting the economy and stock market. They touch on recent job data, surprise tariffs, and speculative moves by the U.S. administration impacting economic stability. The conversation explores potential market reactions to political and economic uncertainties, including possible stagflation and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts. Key earnings reports from companies like Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Palantir, Disney, and McDonald's are analyzed for their broader market implications. The episode concludes with anticipation of upcoming economic data, Fed speeches, and continued scrutiny on trade deals and tariffs.

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Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by Brian Kelly, Founder & CEO of BKCM and author of 'The Bitcoin Big Bang.' The episode covers Brian's journey into the world of Bitcoin, starting around 2010, and his significant contributions to the cryptocurrency space. The discussion touches on the current macroeconomic environment, including the implications of trade tariffs, the current state of interest rates, and the potential impact of shifting global currencies such as the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan. Brian and the hosts also delve into the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency, examining how the pillars of the Bitcoin bull case have changed over the years and the role of institutional investors. The conversation expands to discuss the regulatory environment, the role of stable coins, and potential future scenarios for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Throughout, Brian offers insights on the intersection of traditional finance and digital assets, emphasizing the transformative potential of Bitcoin and blockchains.

Checkout 'The Daily Spark': https://www.apolloacademy.com/the-daily-spark/

Timecodes

0:00 - Intro

4:00 - Japan Red Flags

8:00 - Trade War Risks

11:30 - Fed Browbeating

13:40 - Earnings Read

16:15 - Gold

17:30 - Bitcoin

26:20 - BTC Treasuries

30:40 - Stable Coins

38:30 - Adoption Catalyst

40:30 - Missing Point