Macrocast

As the Merkel era is drawing to a close, we take the occasion of the federal elections on September 26th to take a good look at three macroeconomic challenges facing Germany and the ramifications for the rest of Europe : Deglobalisation risk, the European economic integration process and Green transition

If you enjoy listening to Alphaville and Scorpions, you will also enjoy this podcast.

Guest: Evelyn Herrmann, Bank of America

Recommendation: Series of podcasts "Germany: Memories of a Nation", by Neil MacGregor (director of the British Museum)

For BBC Radio 4 link https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04dwbwz/episodes/downloads

Credits: Alphaville - "Forever Young" / Scorpions - "Wind of Change"

All the other podcasts: https://www.axa-im.com/macrocast

Recorded on September 9th, produced by AXA IM

As we relaunch macrocast after a hiatus of a few months and in conversational format, I was looking for someone who would help us to think through the noise and guide us in this post COVID world. I immediately thought of Jean Pisani-Ferry, who enlightens us with his wisdom and optimism. You will hear him in this podcast. Then I thought of Fleetwood Mac, in an equally hopeful but more musical vein. You'll hear them too.

Guest : Jean Pisani-Ferry (https://twitter.com/pisaniferry)

Recommendations : 

- Jean Pisani-Ferry : "Political Cleavages and Social Inequalities", Amory Gethin/Clara Martinez-Toledano/Thomas Piketty

- Gilles Moëc : "The Price of Nostalgia, America’s Self-Defeating Economic Retreat", Adam S. Posen

Credits : Fleetwood Mac - "Don't stop"

Macrocast weekly newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/insights?p_r_p_categoryId=12673554

Recorded on June 8th, produced by Axa IM

If Gilles Moëc does not always shine by his optimism, for this last podcast of the season he dares a duet with Mr Blue Sky (ELO). Believe it or not, there is talk of a "forward guidance" that could provide economic agents with an explicit – albeit flexible – sequence for the fiscal stance across the next three to five years, leading to a solid and sustainable recovery.

Credits

Olivier Blanchard's paper from January 2013 : https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1301.pdf

"Mr Blue Sky", ELO

Macrocasta Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-fiscal-forward-guidance-needed/23818

Recorded on July 13th, produced by Axa

We don't know if David Bowie was a Democrat, but he is with Gilles Moëc today to talk about the Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions" Act (HEROES). But is pumping up more pent-up demand a long term solution? On the monetary policy side, the Fed seem to be thinking hard about yield control.

Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-us-policy-makers-looking-for-a-plan-b/23818

Credits : David Bowie "Heroes"

Recorded on July 6th, produced by Axa

Only a strong political stimulus seems to be able to shift from general emergency support to long-term demand management. With this in mind, the debate on how best to protect jobs will be key. To tackle this thorny issue, Gilles Moëc is supported this week by the eternal Bee Gees, who are as determined as ever to stay alive.

Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-job-protection-and-demand-management/23818

Crédits : The Bee Gees "Stayin' Alive"

Recorded on June 29th, produced by Axa

The success of the new TLTRO shows that pledging the governments’ balance sheet was certainly the right thing to do in the emergency, nevertheless the medium-term consequences of those guarantees need to be explored. Fortunately we will not be alone in this questioning. There was Genesis of course, always willing to "share his peace", but there was especially Apolline Menut. Good listening.

Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-51-credit-guarantee-feedback-loop/23818
Credits : Genesis, "Supper's ready"

To talk about money supply growth, Gilles Moëc once again invokes the 1970s. But this week music shares the top billing with Milton Friedman. And ABBA can shout it 3 times in a row, Milton knows what he's talking about when it comes to MONEY.
Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-warning-shot/23818
Crédits : ABBA, "Money Money Money", Milton Friedman Speaks: Money and Inflation

Jim Cramer is so excited about the recent U.S. dataflow that one of Bob Marley's is not too much to bring the tension down, even though there's still "So much trouble in the world'.
Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-beyond-the-mechanical-rebound/23818
Crédits : Bob Marley & the Wailers "So much trouble in the world", Jim Cramer CNBC

When there is good news in Europe, and the "Next Generation" package is undoubtedly one, Gilles Moëc leaves it to Apolline Menut (Eurozone Economist at AXA IM) to announce it to you. To encourage the movement, John Lennon and Queen won't go amiss.

Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-define-big-/23818

Crédits : John Lennon "Stand by me", Queen "Don't stop be now"

Recorded on June 1st, produced by Axa

The Franco-German "Recovery Fund" proposal is a ray of light for the post-pandemic global economy, but it's already facing opposition that could spread in the next weeks. In the Us, the negative rate debate at the Fed is rising. Fortunately, the '70s are still with us to set the economy to music.

Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-hamilton-has-not-sung-yet/23818

Crédits : Supertramp "If everyone was listening", Yes "Close to the Edge"

Recorded on May 25th, produced by Axa