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"Made Up Stats"
Are advanced football stats really "made up"? Lindsay and Sam take on one of the most common criticisms of modern football analytics head-on. Sparked by a Twitter debate over the "Big Time Throw" metric, this episode pulls back the curtain on how stats are actually built — and why understanding the difference between objective observations, subjective assumptions, and analytical processes is the key to trusting any given number.
From EPA and pressure-to-sack ratio to SumerSports' new frame-level tracking model, they break down what makes a stat legitimate, what makes it "sticky," and why even traditional stats have always had interpretation baked in. Plus a preview of new route tracking, coverage matchup data, and real-time probabilities coming to SumerSports this fall.
What you'll learn:
What "sticky" means and why it's the standard every good stat must meet
How SumerSports' frame-level model tracks completion & sack probability every 10th of a second
Why the same stat looks different across sites and how to navigate it
What new route and coverage matchup data will unlock for evaluation and fantasy
0:13 – Intro: The "Made Up Stats" Debate on Twitter
0:37 – Big Time Throws & Why the Criticism Has Merit
1:23 – What Separates Good Analytics From Noise
1:49 – New SumerSports Data Coming This Fall
2:09 – Three Fan Reactions: Overwhelm, Misunderstanding & Mistrust
3:36 – Transparency: How Stats Are Actually Built
4:12 – Analytics Aren't New: Steve Belichick's Scouting Book
5:12 – The Real Innovation Is Storage & Processing
6:12 – Counting Stats & Their Hidden Subjectivity
7:34 – The Aaron Rodgers Jets Example: Why Passing Yards Lie
9:34 – What Is EPA? Why Yards Aren't Yards
10:59 – Objective Facts vs. Subjective Conclusions
15:06 – What Does "Sticky" Mean?
16:08 – Stickiest QB Stats: Pressure-to-Sack Ratio
16:55 – Caleb Williams: From High Sack Rate to Low
17:19 – Sack Rate vs. Pressure-to-Sack Ratio Explained
20:38 – Raw Sacks vs. O-Line Blame
23:09 – The 2.5-Second Threshold: Subjective but Consistent
24:03 – Andy Richardson vs. Jalen Milroy: SackOf in Practice
26:14 – Frame-by-Frame Completion & Sack Probability
27:32 – Play-Level (EPA) vs. Frame-Level Data
30:53 – Why Consistency Is the Goal
32:19 – Human Charting Bias vs. Automated Consistency
33:57 – Nick Saban's "The Process" Applied to Analytics
36:19 – SumerScore: Evolution of the Coach's Plus/Minus
37:19 – Outcome Bias & the Cornerback Interception Problem
40:05 – What Technology Can Do That Humans Can't
41:02 – New Stats: Full Route Tracking Back to 2016
42:13 – Coverage Metrics: Target Rate + Yards Allowed Per Snap
43:37 – Riley Moss: When High Target Rate Is a Good Sign
44:25 – Coverage Matchup Data: Gonzalez on JSN in the Super Bowl
45:21 – Fantasy Implications of Matchup Data
46:30 – Play Action: Where Does the Boost Actually Come From?
47:43 – If You Can Tell the Story Behind a Stat, It's Not Made Up
48:44 – Why Stats Differ Site to Site: The Target Share Example
51:15 – Stick to One Site for Consistent Comparisons
52:45 – Outro & Subscribe
#NFL #NFLAnalytics #FootballAnalytics #AdvancedStats #NFLStats #SumerSports #MadeUpStats #EPA #NFLData #DataScience #SportsAnalytics #NFLPodcast #FootballPodcast #NFLMetrics #CalebWilliams #AaronRodgers #FootballIQ #DataDriven #FantasyFootball #SportsTech
CONNECT WITH US:
- Twitter/X: https://x.com/sumersports
- Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sumersports
- TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@sumersports
- Website: https://www.sumersports.com
- 2026 Rookie Draft Guide: https://sumersports.com/2025-nfl-draft-guide/
- SūmerPlayer Varsity: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/sumerplayer-varsity/id6746766016
---
ABOUT SŪMERSPORTS:
SūmerSports combines 500+ years of NFL front office experience with innovative sports AI to democratize elite football intelligence. Our team includes former NFL GMs, coaches, scouts, and engineers from Google, Meta, and Microsoft.
View all episodes
By SumerSports
4.5
7171 ratings
Are advanced football stats really "made up"? Lindsay and Sam take on one of the most common criticisms of modern football analytics head-on. Sparked by a Twitter debate over the "Big Time Throw" metric, this episode pulls back the curtain on how stats are actually built — and why understanding the difference between objective observations, subjective assumptions, and analytical processes is the key to trusting any given number.
From EPA and pressure-to-sack ratio to SumerSports' new frame-level tracking model, they break down what makes a stat legitimate, what makes it "sticky," and why even traditional stats have always had interpretation baked in. Plus a preview of new route tracking, coverage matchup data, and real-time probabilities coming to SumerSports this fall.
What you'll learn:
What "sticky" means and why it's the standard every good stat must meet
How SumerSports' frame-level model tracks completion & sack probability every 10th of a second
Why the same stat looks different across sites and how to navigate it
What new route and coverage matchup data will unlock for evaluation and fantasy
0:13 – Intro: The "Made Up Stats" Debate on Twitter
0:37 – Big Time Throws & Why the Criticism Has Merit
1:23 – What Separates Good Analytics From Noise
1:49 – New SumerSports Data Coming This Fall
2:09 – Three Fan Reactions: Overwhelm, Misunderstanding & Mistrust
3:36 – Transparency: How Stats Are Actually Built
4:12 – Analytics Aren't New: Steve Belichick's Scouting Book
5:12 – The Real Innovation Is Storage & Processing
6:12 – Counting Stats & Their Hidden Subjectivity
7:34 – The Aaron Rodgers Jets Example: Why Passing Yards Lie
9:34 – What Is EPA? Why Yards Aren't Yards
10:59 – Objective Facts vs. Subjective Conclusions
15:06 – What Does "Sticky" Mean?
16:08 – Stickiest QB Stats: Pressure-to-Sack Ratio
16:55 – Caleb Williams: From High Sack Rate to Low
17:19 – Sack Rate vs. Pressure-to-Sack Ratio Explained
20:38 – Raw Sacks vs. O-Line Blame
23:09 – The 2.5-Second Threshold: Subjective but Consistent
24:03 – Andy Richardson vs. Jalen Milroy: SackOf in Practice
26:14 – Frame-by-Frame Completion & Sack Probability
27:32 – Play-Level (EPA) vs. Frame-Level Data
30:53 – Why Consistency Is the Goal
32:19 – Human Charting Bias vs. Automated Consistency
33:57 – Nick Saban's "The Process" Applied to Analytics
36:19 – SumerScore: Evolution of the Coach's Plus/Minus
37:19 – Outcome Bias & the Cornerback Interception Problem
40:05 – What Technology Can Do That Humans Can't
41:02 – New Stats: Full Route Tracking Back to 2016
42:13 – Coverage Metrics: Target Rate + Yards Allowed Per Snap
43:37 – Riley Moss: When High Target Rate Is a Good Sign
44:25 – Coverage Matchup Data: Gonzalez on JSN in the Super Bowl
45:21 – Fantasy Implications of Matchup Data
46:30 – Play Action: Where Does the Boost Actually Come From?
47:43 – If You Can Tell the Story Behind a Stat, It's Not Made Up
48:44 – Why Stats Differ Site to Site: The Target Share Example
51:15 – Stick to One Site for Consistent Comparisons
52:45 – Outro & Subscribe
#NFL #NFLAnalytics #FootballAnalytics #AdvancedStats #NFLStats #SumerSports #MadeUpStats #EPA #NFLData #DataScience #SportsAnalytics #NFLPodcast #FootballPodcast #NFLMetrics #CalebWilliams #AaronRodgers #FootballIQ #DataDriven #FantasyFootball #SportsTech
CONNECT WITH US:
- Twitter/X: https://x.com/sumersports
- Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sumersports
- TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@sumersports
- Website: https://www.sumersports.com
- 2026 Rookie Draft Guide: https://sumersports.com/2025-nfl-draft-guide/
- SūmerPlayer Varsity: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/sumerplayer-varsity/id6746766016
---
ABOUT SŪMERSPORTS:
SūmerSports combines 500+ years of NFL front office experience with innovative sports AI to democratize elite football intelligence. Our team includes former NFL GMs, coaches, scouts, and engineers from Google, Meta, and Microsoft.
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