The first trading week of 2026 has been a whirlwind of geopolitical shocks and big economic developments. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is back on The Weekly Briefing to break down an historic start to the year, including:

• The Maduro capture: Neil provides much-needed macro and market context behind the news of Nicolás Maduro’s capture in Venezuela.
• AI and US productivity impacts: Whether the "stunning" Q3 US productivity numbers suggest massive AI investments are moving the needle for the US economy – and whether other economies will soon start feeling the benefit.
• The labour market and the Fed: A review of the December payrolls report and what it could mean for the Fed.

Also on the show: David Oxley and Kieran Tompkins from our Commodities team join us to make sense of a volatile week in the oil market. They discuss the reality behind expectations for a surge in Venezuelan oil flows onto the global market.