What tensions will yet erupt as the US–China economic relationship unravels? What will the global economy look like in 2040? And what should business and government leaders be doing now to adapt to an era of economic fracturing?

The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy is published on 28 August. In this special episode, author and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to unpack the book’s key lessons and to show how today’s headlines reveal the deeper forces driving economic fracturing.

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China’s government is making louder noises about boosting consumption, a shift that’s critical not just for rebalancing its investment-heavy economy, but also for easing global imbalances. But are these signals part of a real policy pivot? China Economist Leah Fahy talks to David Wilder about the latest in China’s rebalancing story and what it means for the trajectory of its economic growth.

Also in this episode: July’s US jobs report was a shock, but it’s part of a wider slowdown across advanced economies. Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown explains what’s driving the weakness and how it could shape central bank decisions ahead.

Events and analysis referenced in this episode:

Read: Chinese overcapacity is a disinflationary gift and a geopolitical threat
Read: Millions in China are about to see their take-home pay fall
Read: Consumer loan subsidies are a step in the right direction
Read: Labour markets weakening in most DMs, not just US
Data: US Labour Market
Data: UK Labour Market Indicators
Key Issue: The economic and market impact of AI
Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole (Aug 2025)

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles the week’s biggest macro and market questions, including: what could Beijing do after more weak China data? Why tariffs aren’t showing up more in the US economy? How much have the latest inflation reports shifted the Fed’s rate-cut debate – and should the Treasury Secretary be taking shots at central banks?

Also: Chief Markets Economist John Higgins on why we’ve lifted our S&P 500 forecasts, the limits of valuation metrics, and the risks markets face from an unpredictable – and increasingly emboldened – president.

Plus: In a clip from our online Drop-In client briefing, Shilan Shah on what’s gone wrong in India-US relations and how 50% tariffs could hit India’s economy.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

CAP: Growth slows in Q2 despite resilient industry
In-person events: Fracturing in the age of Trump
S&P 500: onwards and upwards for this year and next
Drop-In: India in Trump’s firing line – What’s at stake for the economy and markets

After an extraordinarily divisive Bank of England policy meeting, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explores why it’s become so difficult to get a clear read on the UK economy. Part of the problem lies with the data – an issue now making headlines in the US following Donald Trump’s dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner. Neil explains what this means for the credibility of official data and what to watch for in the upcoming BLS inflation release, which could prove pivotal for the Fed’s September decision. Plus, Thomas Ryan from our US team looks at why Trump’s promises to restore American manufacturing are likely to fall far short of reality.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

Read: Miran a good pick for the Fed
Read: Integrity of economic data safe for now

US Drop-In: Are higher tariff rates fuelling inflation – and how should the Fed respond?
Data: UK Employment Indicator
Read: Tariffs will not fix decades-long manufacturing decline

Does July's grim US jobs report vindicate the Fed's dissenters who pushed for rate cuts this week? Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann unpack what the latest data reveal about the health of the US economy, the Fed’s strategy and how markets are reacting. Plus, with AI's global rollout pointing to formidable energy demands, Climate and Commodities Economist Olivia Cross explains where the supply will come from.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

Read: Tariff impact on inflation slowly building
Data: Tariff Impact Model
Data: China-US Rerouting dashboard
Read: How the AI race will reshape global energy markets
Key Issue: The economic and market impact of AI

Donald Trump and his trade war are symptoms, not causes, of a deeper shift in the global economic order. The world has fractured into rival blocs, with the US and China emerging as the poles of competing systems, vying for resources, technological dominance and geopolitical influence. Now, with Trump back in office, long-held assumptions about American leadership are once again in question. What does his return mean for the trajectory of this fracturing, and how has the balance of risks evolved?

In this special edition of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams explore the fracturing of the global economy. Ahead of the publication of fresh analysis about how fracturing has developed since Trump's return, they talk to David Wilder about how this process began long before the president was elected in 2016,  how it’s accelerating under his second term and where it might lead. Topics covered in this 30-minute episode include:

• The inevitability of US–China economic rivalry – and the scope for détente
• How fracturing is fuelling a global tech arms race
• Whether Trump’s unilateralism could further strain or even break Western alliances.

Events and analysis referenced in this episode:

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Read: The fracturing of the global economy
Read: The US, China and the Fractured Age

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing sifts through a deluge of DM inflation data to highlight where tariff effects are coming through, where price pressures look too hot and which central banks are best positioned to press on with policy easing. He also talks to David Wilder about what China’s manufacturing overdrive is doing to the global inflation picture.

Also on the show, how serious is Donald Trump about forcing out Jerome Powell? Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown talks about the market response to the latest attacks on the Fed chief, why forcing him out could prove counterproductive for a president wanting cheaper borrowing costs, and what to watch as the White House steps up the pressure.

Events and analysis referenced in this episode:

ECB Watch: A pause, or an end, to the easing cycle
Global Drop-In: Fed, ECB and Bank of England – Unpacking the latest rate moves
Drop-In: Could South Africa be about to see a big bond rally?
Read: What happens if Trump fires Powell?

Tariffs stormed back into the headlines this week as the pause on ‘Liberation Day’ levies expired with a flurry of warnings about steep rate hikes unless deals are struck by 1st August. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks the implications, while Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard provides the view from Beijing. They also explore with David Wilder why inflation is a risk in the US but deflation looms in China, and what policymakers are (and aren’t) doing to fix it.

Also on the show: As warnings mount over AI-driven job losses, Senior Economic Adviser Vicky Redwood separates hype from reality and explains what’s happening now in labour markets, and what the future may hold.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

Data: US-China Trade Rerouting
Read: Tackling Chinese overcapacity will require demand-side stimulus
Read: Fears about AI-driven job losses are overdone
Read: The economic and market impact of AI
Upcoming Drop-Ins

On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to unpack the key developments in global macro and markets, including:

• What to expect as the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff pause approaches expiry
• Whether the US and EU can strike a trade deal in time
• Why China is central to the US–Vietnam trade agreement
• What’s really troubling about the passage of Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax bill
• What moves in gilt and sterling markets this week revealed about the UK Labour Party’s fiscal credibility

Also on the show, Senior Global Economist Ariane Curtis discusses her new in-depth report on the outlook for global trade amid rising tariffs. She explains why her forecasts challenge the narrative of deglobalisation and also shares highlights from our latest Global Economic Outlook, including China’s looming slowdown and India’s relative outperformance.

Analysis and data referenced in this episode:

Data: China-US Trade Rerouting
Data: Tariff Impact Model
Read: What do tariffs mean for global trade?
Data: Euro-zone Debt Sustainability Monitor

A ceasefire in the Middle East. A US-China deal. Relatively benign dataflow. The S&P 500 back at a record high. But are things really looking up? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk to David Wilder about fragilities under the surface of the global economy. He discusses worldwide fiscal risks, why there’s less to see with that US-China deal and those divisions on the FOMC. 

Also on the show, BYD and DeepSeek may be in the spotlight, but their rise reflects deeper structural flaws in China’s economy. They’re a sign of economic success, but also of the growing distortions in the government’s industrial strategy – weaknesses that are increasingly evident in China’s dismal productivity data. Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams has been delving into the details of Xi Jinping’s industrial roadmap and the productivity data to tell David what this all says about China’s economic outlook.

Events and analysis referenced in this podcast:

Read: China’s push for innovation is not lifting productivity
Roundtable: One year on: Is the UK government boosting growth?
Read: Fed independence not a concern for markets, yet
Read: APAC Commercial Property Outlook: Values to fall as region’s markets struggle to recover
Data: APAC Commercial Property