Retail sales rose a strong 0.9% in May for a fourth straight monthly gain, but economists warn the spring's tax-refund cushion is fading. Inflation hit a three-year high, the force behind the Fed's hawkish turn, and the SBA's enhanced 90% Grocery Guarantee delivered its first $30M to food retailers.

AI has shifted from answering questions to taking actions, and 82% of small employers have now invested in it. But the same technology is powering a surge in scams, with a federal advisory warning of deepfakes and voice cloning aimed at your payments. And gas prices finally dipped under $4 a gallon.

While big employers sit frozen, small businesses posted their best hiring outlook of the year, with firms under 20 employees creating the most jobs in the country. New grads squeezed out of corporate trainee programs are turning to Main Street in record numbers, while small-group health premiums are set to rise a median 11% in 2026.

After the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs, refunds are flowing, but more than two-thirds of small importers weren't ready to file and are stuck while big firms get paid. Cash-flow management is back as owners' number-one worry, and a major card-network settlement caps standard consumer credit-card fees at 1.25% for eight years.

The Fed held rates a fourth straight meeting but its new dot plot points to a possible hike this year, not the cut owners wanted. Small business optimism slipped again in May with taxes overtaking inflation as the top worry, and the SBA raised the minimum credit score on its smallest 7(a) loans while doubling the combined 7(a)/504 limit to $10M.

Retail spending is up 4.9 percent year-over-year through April and consumers haven't stopped — but they've shifted toward necessities and away from discretionary categories. Small business capital investment is at its lowest level since March 2009, with only 16 percent of owners planning outlays in the next six months. And supply chain disruptions are accelerating just as pre-tariff inventory buffers run dry — 70 percent of small business owners reported disruptions in May, up sharply from April. Summer is the test.

Today is Juneteenth. Black-owned businesses generate over $207 billion in annual revenue and employ nearly five million people — but the capital access gap remains the primary structural barrier, with 70 percent of Black business owners relying on personal savings to finance their businesses. With the Fed holding rates again, SBA loans are running 9 to 11.5 percent APR and the math on new debt is tight. And cybercriminals are now using AI to run attacks that cost 95 percent less — ransomware was involved in 88 percent of small business breaches last year.

Health insurance costs for small businesses are up 9.5 percent this year, on pace to top $17,000 per employee annually — but most owners don't know about ICHRA alternatives that convert a variable group premium into a fixed cost. AI tools have crossed a meaningful threshold: the leading platforms now complete full business workflows without step-by-step human input, at under $100 a month. And new Regulation S-P customer data security rules took effect June 3rd — if you handle financial information without a written policy, your risk window is open.

The Fed announces its June rate decision this afternoon — and while no change is expected, what Powell says about the future path matters more than the number. Tariffs are costing small businesses an estimated $85 billion a year, and with pre-tariff inventory buffers nearly depleted, the full cost hits this summer. Plus: the most significant overhaul of federal procurement rules in 40 years takes effect June 30 — if your business holds government contracts, the clock is ticking.

The Federal Reserve opens its two-day June meeting today with a rate hold almost certain — prime stays at 6.75 percent and business borrowing costs won't budge. Meanwhile, NFIB's May optimism report shows small business confidence below its 52-year average for a third straight month, with supply chain disruptions up sharply and capital spending at a 17-year low. And while owners are pulling back on hiring, that creates an unusual opening for businesses ready to add staff right now.