Football Bonus, HFSS, Morrisons & A Tough Autumn
Join Andrew Grant and Darren A. Smith in the Football Bonus episode of the Grocery Guru. They discuss England being in the Euro 2020 final which gives a football bonus & stress on the supply chain, driver shortage, labour shortages for frowers, rapid groceries - Wheezy, HFSS, Morrison's bids and a tough Autumn Ahead for the grocers and their suppliers.
You Can Read the Full Football Bonus Transcript Below:
Darren A. Smith:
Hello, and welcome to the Grocery Guru. This is episode 36, and we are here with that guru, Andrew Grant. How you doing?
Andrew Grant:
Morning Darren. Yes. Pretty good. Thank you.
Darren A. Smith:
Lots going on at the moment. I know we've got a few things we want to share with our audience, but we can't not mention the football.
Andrew Grant:
What's that? Sorry, Das, I missed it.
Darren A. Smith:
It's a sort of football-like brown thing we might win.
Andrew Grant:
Oh, yes. There's a small match on Sunday evening, I believe.
Darren A. Smith:
There very much is. And I know you're a big football fan.
Andrew Grant:
Yeah, no, exactly. I mean, it's one of those weekends, obviously putting aside the sort of, the passion for the national team, but as an [inaudible 00:00:48], we all remember these weekends. They don't come around very often, but a Royal wedding, a Brit winning Wimbledon, England football team getting through to the semifinals and now the finals; it's not in your budget. You weren't expecting it. You've spent this whole week ordering in gazillions of whatever it might be; crates of beer, burger buns, barbecue briquettes, whatever. And it's all froth on the top of your budget, I mean, happy days.
England football team being in the final have meant a football bonus and driver shortages
Darren A. Smith:
It's like getting a football bonus, isn't it? You didn't know it was coming and there it is. Lovely.
Andrew Grant:
Yeah. And then obviously the trick is by this time next year, make sure you've moved categories because you're going to have the mother of all spikes to try and overcome.
Darren A. Smith:
Can't you still just blame COVID? Can this not go on for years?
Andrew Grant:
Yeah, but it doesn't get taken out of your budget, unfortunately. I'm not sure finance directors know that there's things such as football and COVID, it's just next year's budget is.
Darren A. Smith:
So we've got lots of people planning for this bonus weekend. It gives them extra on top of their budget. Fabulous. All right. That makes sense. And what about taking that forward? What does that look like?
Andrew Grant:
Well, it's an interesting time, isn't it? Because we spoke, I think a few episodes ago, about the challenges the grocers are going to have this year. Obviously they got a massive pandemic boost when everybody... when all the other shops were shut. And they're now obviously in the... they're now lapping that fantastic performance. And I saw some stuff from NielsenIQ this week, which said that actually sales in supermarkets fell 2.4% in the four weeks to the 19th of June, which actually probably isn't bad. If you think, they got something like 10% bonus, only to be 2.4% now a year later, is pretty good.
Darren A. Smith:
Well, that's much better than I would have thought. The average was 10% up in sales, so now we're saying only 8% up, minus two. Okay. [inaudible 00:03:10].
Andrew Grant:
We had Sainsbury's quarterly update performance. They increased their profit expectations, I think; doing pretty well, growing market share. And interestingly, the takeout I took from it, was their online business, their online grocery business, as opposed to Argos, is now steadying out. The growth rate is steadying out, but at 20% of their overall business.
Darren A. Smith:
Oh, one in five. Okay.
Andrew Grant:
So if you remember a year ago, we said it had doubled to 20%. So it doubled in a year, sort of five years worth of growth in a year,