Making Money Minute with Ron Hiebert - The Chinese Real Estate Bubble

Chinese love to own real estate. This countries investors have 70% of their assets in property, 20% in bank deposits and insurance policies and only 10% in the stock market. Yet even as the bubble grew, few people in 2016, took Chinese President Xi Jinping seriously, when he warned that houses were for living in, not speculation. Chinese policies, designed to take the air out of real estate, really started to bite in 2021. Property values over the next four years fell by 40%. Remember Humpty Dumpty. After he fell off the wall, all the kings horses and all the kings men couldn’t put him back together again. The Chinese, are finding that bubbles are easy to pop, but are much harder, and take much longer to fix. For more information listen to our Making Money podcast with Ron Hiebert and Graham Hicks at letsmakemoney.ca or CFCW.com.

Making Money Minute with Ron Hiebert - Trump’s Military Mistakes

I think hindsight will show, that what caused the Republicans to lose their majorities in the House and/or the Senate this November, were the mistakes Trump made in his unexpected war with Iran. The first, was thinking that he could win the fight with Air Power alone. That has never happened. The second was believing that Iran’s leadership would bow to his threats. The shaky two week truce, just agreed to, caves in to most of Iran’s demands. And finally, he expected the west would come running to his aid with their navies - they didn’t. This will be an expensive lesson for him, and even more so for investors and the economy. For more information listen to our Making Money podcast with Ron Hiebert and Graham Hicks at letsmakemoney.ca or CFCW.com.

Making Money Minute with Ron Hiebert - The Fog of War

200 years ago, a Prussian military strategist nailed it, when he coined the phrase fog of war. He noted that three-quarters of the factors on which wars are based, are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty. This is eerily similar to the current conflict in Iran. The newsfeed continuously comes out with statements that are often contradicted in minutes by the other side or even themselves. The truth is, no one has a clue about the ultimate consequences of this war. Not Trump. Not the Iranian’s. Investors trying to build an investment strategy based on this wars lies, inuendo and false flags - face a wall of unknowns. Wait till the fog clears, then pull the trigger. For more information listen to our Making Money podcast with Ron Hiebert and Graham Hicks at letsmakemoney.ca or CFCW.com.

Making Money Minute with Ron Hiebert - Busts & Booms

In the dot-com boom of the late 1990’s, telecoms laid 130 million kilometres of fiber optic cable. In the following bust, 85% of this capacity went unused and bandwidth prices fell by 90%. While this drove telecoms like Global Crossing into bankruptcy, cheap access to fibre optic cable, fuelled the rise of early Internet adopters like Netflix and Facebook. Could we see a similar dynamic playing out today? Tech firms are investing an expected 7 trillion dollars building out AI infrastructure, yet no one has a clue how this will be profitable. If the boom goes bust, it will be interesting to see which companies will be able to profit from access to cheap AI, without having to risk the large capital outlays needed to develop it. For more information listen to our Making Money podcast with Ron Hiebert and Graham Hicks at letsmakemoney.ca or CFCW.com.

Making Money Minute with Ron Hiebert - Markets & Tides

One of the most important things investors need to understand, is how markets behave, both on the way up and on the way down. Probably the best way to visualize this, is to look at how the tide affects ships in a harbour. When the tide comes in, it raises all the ships, no matter how big or small they are. The same thing happens when the tide goes out. All boats sink. When the economy suffers through a recession and stocks enter a bear market, there are very few things that go up or even maintain their value. Even conservative investments like utilities and insurance companies can get hurt. The trick when markets get expensive, is to be more cautious and limit the downside. Cash is King. For more information listen to our Making Money podcast with Ron Hiebert and Graham Hicks at letsmakemoney.ca or CFCW.com.

Making Money Minute with Ron Hiebert - Wars Neverendum

According to Trump, the war with Iran should be wrapped up within a month or so. But this could be naive. A financial commentator from the UK wisecracked that the hardest part of a 4 week war is the first 6 to 7 years. The grim reality is, they usually become a neverendum. America was in Vietnam - 20+ years. Russia in Afghanistan - 10 years. America in Iraq - 20+ years. America in Afghanistan - 19 years, 10 months. Russia in Ukraine - 12 years and counting. We continually underestimate the economic damage and inflation these long term wars cause. And pathetically, when we spend a fortune to remove a bad guy, they often get replaced by someone even worse. For more information listen to our Making Money podcast with Ron Hiebert and Graham Hicks at letsmakemoney.ca or CFCW.com.

Making Money Minute with Ron Hiebert - Fertilizer Squeeze

People worry that high oil prices caused by the war in Iran will lead to rising inflation and interest rates. Very few pay attention to this conflicts impact on global fertilizer prices. Roughly 1/3 of all internationally traded fertilizer passes through the 40 km wide Strait of Hormuz just off Iran’s south west coast. This narrow bottleneck has been blocked with mines and drone attacks - grinding shipping to a halt. This couldn’t come at a worse time, as farmers in the Northern hemisphere gear up for the spring planting season. With lower fertilizer inputs, yields will drop and food prices go up. This might not show up at your grocery today. The big impact will hit in late summer and fall, when this years crops start appearing on store shelves. For more information listen to our Making Money podcast with Ron Hiebert and Graham Hicks at letsmakemoney.ca or CFCW.com.

Making Money Minute with Ron Hiebert - AI Makes Stuff Up

When Artificial intelligence makes stuff up that isn’t true, and presents it with a such a high degree of confidence it seems believable - they call this AI Hallucinations. There are plenty of documented stories where AI has cited legal cases that never happened, quoted non-existent scientific studies, generated fake biographies, or misidentified objects in images, seemingly on purpose. The weird thing, is that often, experts are mystified as to why, and how this happens. If you are using AI to do financial research, it is important to fact check the data. AI has made enormous strides in the last 12 months, but its accuracy still needs work. For more information listen to our Making Money podcast with Ron Hiebert and Graham Hicks at letsmakemoney.ca or CFCW.com.

Making Money Minute with Ron Hiebert - The Integrated Oils

Energy companies that focus strictly on finding and producing oil, have earnings that are pretty much held hostage by whatever the price of crude is at any given time. Those wanting a more defensive and less volatile way to invest in fossil fuels should look at the integrateds. These companies produce oil, refine it and also sell finished products. When crude prices are high, upstream assets that produce the stuff, generate big profits. When prices dip, downstream refining and fuel stations benefit from lower feedstock costs and steady consumer demand. This “natural hedge,” helps firms maintain their dividend and stock buyback programs, even during periods of market volatility. For more information listen to our Making Money podcast with Ron Hiebert and Graham Hicks at letsmakemoney.ca or CFCW.com.

Making Money Minute with Ron Hiebert - Diversify Beyond the US

After decades of dominance, the influence of the American dollar has begun to fade. Countries have increasingly looked at paying for imports and exports with other currencies like the Yuan, Euro or Yen. Central banks have steadily reduced their holding of greenbacks and replaced them with gold and other currencies. Investors have diversified exposure from US stocks, and added precious metals and foreign securities to their portfolios. Foreign attraction to the US dollar has slowly lessened and this looks to be a long term trend. If there was ever a time for Canadian investors to diversify their foreign holdings beyond the US - it is now. For more information listen to our Making Money podcast with Ron Hiebert and Graham Hicks at letsmakemoney.ca or CFCW.com.