Making Sense

This month, Phillip Neuhart and Blake Taylor discuss where markets and the economy stand midway through 2026. The US economy has shown notable resilience despite a volatile first half, marked by geopolitical shocks, rising energy prices and new leadership at the Federal Reserve. The outlook is similar to where the year began, with one key exception: inflation has moved higher. Chairman Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting underscored a renewed focus on returning inflation to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Strong earnings continue to drive financial markets higher. While large technology firms are leading the way, performance continues to broaden. In fixed income markets, higher interest rates help reinforce our long-standing view that portfolio balance and long-term discipline remain essential in navigating an environment defined by both resilience and evolving risks.

For more information, visit https://www.firstcitizens.com/wealth/market-outlook/2026/making-sense-june-market-update.

Markets are adjusting to a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve after new Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled a clear commitment to price stability. In this episode, Blake Taylor, Market & Economic Research Analyst, discusses the evolving macro backdrop, including shifting Fed policy expectations, upcoming inflation data, and what key economic releases may reveal about consumer strength and overall economic momentum.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice; all investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

Markets saw increased volatility last week as pressures from interest rates, inflation, and geopolitics weighed on sentiment, even as broader equity performance remains solid year to date. In this episode, Blake Taylor, Market & Economic Research Analyst discusses the evolving macro environment, including Federal Reserve policy expectations under new leadership, persistent inflation dynamics, and upcoming economic data tied to the US consumer and housing market.

In this episode, Phillip Neuhart, Head of Market and Economic Research and Thomas O’Keefe, Managing Director of Portfolio Strategy, are joined by Market and Economic Research Analyst Blake Taylor to discuss the Federal Reserve’s evolving policy outlook. With a new Fed Chair stepping in at a pivotal moment, the conversation places today’s policy environment in historical context while also examining interest rates, inflation, and the labor market. Gain insight into monetary policy decision making, the Fed’s dual mandate, and how current conditions compare with prior economic cycles.

In this week’s episode, Phillip Neuhart, Head of Market and Economic Research, breaks down recent moves in equity markets, including reactions to U.S.–Iran developments, strength in AI-related stocks, and stronger-than-expected May employment data. Looking ahead, Phil focuses on key economic releases—Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), existing home sales, and consumer sentiment—and what they may signal for inflation trends, housing affordability, and Federal Reserve policy. He also examines the ongoing disconnect between consumer sentiment and equity market performance.

In this week's episode, Phillip Neuhart, Head of Market and Economic Research, analyzes the latest trends driving the US stock market as equities reach new all-time highs and Treasury yields pull back. He explores mixed economic data, including weaker personal income and a downward revision to first-quarter GDP.

On May 27, 2026, Phillip Neuhart and Blake Taylor provided this month's Market Update. For more information, visit https://www.firstcitizens.com/wealth/market-outlook/2026/making-sense-may-market-update

Markets in May 2026 reflected a complex mix of geopolitical risk, inflation uncertainty, and shifting Federal Reserve expectations. War in the Middle East continued to disrupt global oil supply, which drove energy market volatility and reinforced concerns about inflation and interest rates. Despite headlines and softer housing and labor market data, the US economy remained on fairly solid footing.

Against this backdrop, equity markets have shown notable resilience. Stocks are reaching new all-time highs, but this is not just a product of lofty sentiment. Instead, exceptional corporate earnings growth has propelled equities higher even as price-to-earnings multiples remain modestly lower than recent averages. At the same time, elevated bond yields are creating attractive opportunities for balanced portfolios.

As we so often remind our clients, staying focused on long-term objectives is key. To better understand what this shifting rate environment means for your portfolio, connect with an advisor for personalized guidance.

Interest rates are moving higher, with long-term Treasury yields reaching multi-decade highs as markets reassess inflation and Federal Reserve policy. In this episode, we explore shifting expectations toward a more hawkish Fed, what to watch in the upcoming PCE inflation report, and how housing trends could influence the broader inflation outlook. We also touch on ongoing geopolitical risks and their implications for energy markets.

Markets continue to climb, with equities reaching new highs alongside strong earnings growth—but rising inflation, higher interest rates, and energy risks are also in focus. In this episode, we cover the latest market momentum, what to watch in upcoming Federal Reserve communications, and the megacap tech earnings rally. We also highlight the importance of global oil flows and evolving geopolitical dynamics.

Blake Taylor, Market and Economic Research Analyst, covers what to watch in the week ahead. U.S. equities pushed to fresh all‑time highs last week, with the S&P 500 now more than 15% above its late‑March lows. This move reflects more than geopolitics, as corporate earnings results—particularly for mega‑cap technology—continue to outperform expectations. Fresh economic data comes out next week, with April CPI, PPI, and retail sales data arriving alongside the final stretch of a blockbuster Q1 earnings season.

Equities at record highs: The S&P 500 continues to reset highs with strong Q1 corporate earnings and margin growth