Maley Market Strategy Podcast

In this week's episode....which was taped on Election Day (and before the results came out) offers some strong reasons for investors to be VERY careful about assuming the initial reaction to those results will care forward for very long.  Yes, the market could stay elevated long enough to get the Anthropic IPO done, but nothing really changed with the election results.  

In this week's piece, we discuss why the rising stress in the credit markets...and the growing evidence that the ROI on the massive AI investments will take much longer to achieve...are coming together right now to signal that important top in the stock market is just around the corner.

In this week's podcast, Mary and I touch on the fact that it is no longer the lousy "timing tools" that are raising warning flags for stocks.  NOW, we're seeing developments...especially in the credit markets...that are very GOOD timing tools...starting to flash red.

In this week's podcast, we discuss why the growing (and broadening) stress in the credit market is a major warning flag for stock investors.  It's not just the rise in long-term sovereign rates around the globe.  It has spread to many different aspects of the credit markets...and thus it is a much bigger problem than most pundits on Wall Street are relaying.  

In this week's podcast, we discuss why the developments over the past two weeks in the credit markets have raised the odds CONSIDERABLY that a top in the stock market of some importance is just around the corner.  There might be enough liquidity in the system to hold things off until after the midterm election, but the warning flags are MUCH too numerous to ignore.

In this week's we discuss whether the recent renewed rally in the AI industry can continue...and whether it can offset the (still) very high price of oil...and the extremely strong rise in long-term interest rates......Given what is coming out of the Fed...and out of Iran...it doesn't look like we're going to get much relief soon on either of these fronts......Also, we discuss whether the recent move in Bitcoin constitutes a real breakout.......No matter what happens over the near-term, the fact that we now how more than a half dozen developments which usually signal that a top of importance is right around the corner...investors NEED to remain quite nimble.

In this week's piece, we discuss how the are a half dozen different signals...which usually develop at/near an important top in the market...are coming to a head right now. Therefore, investors need to avoid being overly complacent over the last 3.5 months of the year......We also discuss which areas...and which stocks...should do quite well during this upcoming time of uncertainty.

In this week's piece, we discuss why bond yields are poised for a near-term decline...and that oil prices are in the same condition.  Therefore, investors should be careful about bearish bets on the bond market and bullish bets on the energy market...but only over the near-term.

In this week's edition, we discuss how Kevin Warsh's comments in Jackson Hole should not just be seen as hinting towards a more hawkish stance by the Fed, but he also told investors that the "Fed put" will only be used during times of crisis in the future.  In other words, he's going to let the markets trade on their own much more than several of his predecessors have done over the past 15 years.  We also discuss the continued divergence between the S&P 500 and the semiconductor stocks...and why that is a yellow flag for investors as we head into the seasonally tough time for the stock market......We also discuss why a couple of specific energy stocks are poised to outperform over the rest of this year.....Finally, we cover why those who see today's action in the bond market as a "normalization" of long-term interest rates...should also be looking for a "normalization" of stock market valuations (lower).

In this week's episode, we discuss why why Secretary Bessent's new proposals to help push Treasury yields lower is a sign that the budget deficit has now grown to a level where it is making it much more difficult for authorities to control those yields.....We also highlight how Chairman Warsh is unlikely going to hold investors' hands to the degree they'd like him to going forward.....On top of this, we also discuss the importance of NVDA's earnings for the broader stock market......We also discuss the breakout in the precious metals...and how it should continue, BUT that it could take a short-term breather soon.