The global economy is already looking at some real shortages of key commodities.  If the blockade lasts for any material amount of time (just a few weeks), it will create the kind of serious shortages that will create a global shutdown.  This does not mean we'll see a repeat of the sudden pandemic crash of 2020, but it will still be serious.  Therefore, we expect the President to get a deal done with Iran soon......The markets are already sniffing this out, so they are rallying again, but we won't see the kind of sustained rebound we saw last year (after the tariff panic).

In this week's episode, we touch on the thought that since the President cannot flip the switch and change on the market reacts to the war in the Middle East (like he did last year with the tariff issue), trying to "jawbone" the market is not going to have the same kind of lasting impact this year.

In this week's edition, we discuss the difference between what was going on in the markets at this point last year compared to now.  The President cannot flip a switch like he did last year...and there are significant questions about how far Israel and Iran will go to meet their goals.....We also discuss how the private credit market is not something that is going to go away......Finally, we touch on our belief that the downside risks in the marketplace right now are quite a big larger than the upside potential.

The real goal of the war in the Middle East is to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities and remove their uranium.  This will take time, so the war will continue...and oil prices will remain high......We also discuss the broadening stress in the credit markets...as well as which stocks (and other risk assets) that should outperforming going forward. 

As much as the price of oil is extremely important to the economy and the markets, we also have a credit market that is experiencing growing stress.  We also have headwinds surrounding the profitability of the AI industry.  Therefore, the upside potential for the stock market is limited and stock selection & sector selection will be critical going forward.  We cover these and other issues this week...including which stocks/sectors should outperform going forward.

The reaction in the stock market to the war in Iran has been quite benign.  However, with the issues surrounding AI still out there...and the level of stress rising in the credit markets...investors need to guard against becoming complacent.....We talk about these issues...and which stocks and groups should outperform going forward...it this week's podcast.

In this week's podcast, we discuss the impact of Nvidia's earnings and why the chip stock remain extremely important for the rest of the stock market.  We also touch on why we remain bullish on the energy stocks...and we review the other groups (and individual stocks) which we like over the coming months.....Finally, we spend a lot of time why investors are too complacent about both the headwinds facing both the AI industry...AND the rising stress in the credit markets.  (Ignore Jamie Dimon's warnings at your own risk.)

In this week’s edition, we discuss how much of an impact the crash in Bitcoin had on other risk assets…and whether that impact will last. We also touch on out outlook on precious metals (which has been spot-on for many, many months)….We also talk about the situation with Iran…and what that will mean for the energy stocks…..Finally, we discuss why we believe that although the Trump Administration cares very much about the stock market, they might not care as much over the near-term.

With silver and gold, we were very bullish...very early...and that worked well.  We were also spot-on in looking for a pullback recently.  This week, we discuss out outlook going forward on the precious metals.....We also discuss our top picks in the energy sector...as well as some strong picks for the longer-term.....Finally, we touch on our unique outlook for several different markets over the next 3-4 months.

In this week's edition, we touch on how this week's earnings from the four Mag 7 companies that report will be important.  We also touch on some key names would should outperform going forward.  However, our focus in on the dangers that exist in the marketplace from the developments in the global fixed income and currency markets.