Remember all that stuff about how Trump was sure the only way he could lose an election would be if there was fraud? Well, it seems he's coming round to rigging the elections - so long as it's done by his side. It's not that gerrymandering is new - but the idea that a US president would be co-ordinating the practice by his side across the country, keeping count of the extra House seats that might be won - that is a different level altogether. Let's discuss.

When President Trump's second term started, the notable thing was just how far-reaching his actions were, just how norm-breaking and transgressive they were, and how little his supporters seemed to care. Suddenly, the story has changed. Now there have been three occasions where his MAGA base was divided because Trump did things that run counter to the emerging orthodoxy. What had seemed previously to be a pure cult of personality has turned into something with a much more ideological wing. And that completely transforms the practicalities of the succession race to come. Let's discuss.

Trump came to power on the back of multiple disinformation campaigns and conspiracy theories. While there's some satisfying karma to see his administration being bitten back by one such conspiracy that MAGA promoted, the truth is that we now have a government that disparages expertise of all types, insists on dealing with other countries in profound ignorance of their outlook and position, and continues to weaponise disinformation. Is there any way back from this? Let's discuss.

President Trump had trailed a 'big announcement' on Ukraine and Russia coming today - and we even had Mark Rutte, the head of NATO in the White House for the occasion. And ... well, while it wasn't nothing, there are good reasons to think that Trump's threat of secondary tariffs (unspecified, but set at 100%) with a 50 day deadline - may not get the job done. But at least it means that America won't be actively undermining the defence of Ukraine any more, and that actually matters. So that's something. Let's discuss.

Arguably, the world has been going through the five stages of grief since Trump came back to the Presidency six months ago. And with the latest actions to cut right across difficult negotiations to hand out more egregious tariff rates, it seems likely we've finally achieved at the final stage - acceptance. But not acceptance of Trump's terms. Not acceptance of Trump's view of the world order. More acceptance that now all the other countries have to rebuild the trade and security system specifically to exclude Trump's America. The world is turning on Trump - and it started here. Let's discuss.

Yesterday, it emerged that the Trump team has been asking its (former) allies Japan and Australia a very strange question - demanding clarity from them on a subject for which the US has a policy not to provide any such clarity. It is, of course, the question of what would they do should China invade Taiwan. But is it really asking? Or is it creating the impression of preparation as part of an operation to dissuade Xi Jinping from even considering doing such a thing ... at least until President Trump is no longer in office? Let's discuss.

Canada thought it was making good progress in negotiations with the Trump team - then he announced even higher tariffs against it. Vietnam thought it had agreed a deal with a much lower tariff figure, but then Trump simply announced a higher one. The first countries through the gate are finding - and the rest of the world is noting - that nothing Trump or his team say can be trusted, that any deal can simply be changed at a whim, and this is not a serious process. So what does the world do about it? Let's discuss.

The US President just announced a massive 50% tariff on Brazil. Nothing to do with the usual excuses - trade deficits - the US has a trade surplus with Brazil. No, instead he is punishing the country for the fact that it is prosecuting former strong man authoritarian president Bolsonaro - one of the leaders Trump saw as 'one of us'. Why is it prosecuting him? Well, he denied the election result that he lost in 2022, and tried to instigate a coup. No idea why Trump might relate to such deeds. But let's discuss anyway.

Trump has muttered, he has grumbled, he has occasionally threatened, but never has there been the slightest sign that he would actually take action of any sort against Vladimir Putin's Russia over its war against Ukraine. But now it suddenly seems as though that might be about to change. Not only did Trump ensure the weapons flow to Ukraine restarted, but he has strongly hinted his interest in endorsing the radical sanctions bill that has been drawn up for just this moment in Congress. If passed, it would have a huge impact on Russia's economy, not to mention on China, India and Turkey if they keep buying Russia's oil. Let's discuss.

Another day, another round of tariff dramas. Trump revealed the new tariff rates he was 'granting' to various countries via letter, along with a new deadline for those countries to come to a deal with him before the rates come into force. It's just another way of seeking to bully the world into agreeing to give one-sided deals to the most powerful country in the world, and to string out the process and the uncertainty, making the whole thing about one man. But while countries are jumping through hoops to get the least worst outcome, the extortion and the drama are starting to backfire. Let's discuss.