Mallen Baker: Faultlines

Many Republicans blame President Donald Trump as the obvious cause for the rout of the GOP in the latest midterm elections. But such comments are largely being made in private. In public, the top target for their ire and desire for accountability is Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth. Hegseth is, however, the cabinet member Trump most likes, and he seems torn between standing by his man, or alternatively finding him a graceful way out. But one thing is for sure - Congress is going to be coming for him. Let's discuss.

President Donald Trump approached the midterm elections with optimism that the results would be close enough that the administration could deflect, deny, seek to put its toe on the scale, anything to keep control of Congress. In the event, the vote was such a massive repudiation of Trump and his activities for the last two years, there was simply nothing that could have been done to hide the brutal fact of it. Now, the Republican choice of candidate for the 2028 election is about to kick off just when Trumpism has had the most emphatic rejection by the country. This completely changes the dynamic of the contest, and we're going to see the first stages of this play out over the coming days, not even weeks. Let's discuss.

Unless a massive surprise unfolds over the next two days, Republicans are expecting a poor set of results from the imminent election. A muttering campaign has already started amongst GOP politicians and candidates to the effect that the bad outlook is very much down to just one man - President Donald Trump. Obviously, that's not how Trump sees it at all, so he is also casting around for someone to blame, and insiders are suggesting that his eyes are falling on Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth as a likely candidate. One thing's for sure - it's about to get ugly. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday October 30th 2026: Ukraine ends its unofficial pause on striking Russian oil refineries, in spite of Trump's demand that it doesn't before the US midterm elections; In those elections, Democrats continue to advance in the polling even though they score one self-inflicted own goal; And from Brazil to Israel via Serbia - right wing populists in the style of Trump are universally claiming their failed elections were rigged and that they actually won. A preview on a theme I expect we'll be hearing a lot more about next week.

It is entirely natural that the Trump team, facing desperately poor polling right up to the last days before the mid-term elections, are feeling grim. But the interesting part is that corporate America, which for the last two years has been queuing up to give President Donald Trump much of what he wants, taking advantage of the culture of impunity and even corruption he has brought about - are suddenly staring into the abyss. If Democrats take control of Congress, their recent actions will all come under scrutiny - and that's leading them to engage in frantic lobbying and strategising and anything else they can think of. It's a sign of things to come - and there are a couple of others as well. Let's discuss.

What was carefully unspoken (but patently obvious) since the beginning of President Donald Trump's second term in the White House, has finally been acknowledged by the Russian leadership. And that only because Trump has now succeeded in destroying the majority of leverage the United States had in the Ukraine war - so Russia is signalling a shift in the power dynamics of how it expects the end game to play out. It's not gotten much attention so far, but it matters, we're seeing the practical signs of it starting to play out, so let's discuss.

US President Donald Trump has said that the whole of the Western hemisphere is his backyard, and he will behave accordingly. So far, it seemed to be working out for him, with a number of South American countries electing Trump-friendly candidates that he could work with. But, just as he thought he would see the same in the biggest beast of them all, Brazil - with the son of Jair Bolsonaro ready to take up where his father left off - Lula da Silva spoiled the party by nudging ahead in time for the final round. And then - ever worse - Maria Corina Machado finally got past Trump's blocking and returned to Venezuela, immediately starting off by demanding the free and fair elections he really doesn't want to grant. Let's discuss.

President Donald Trump is cancelling the tariffs on a number of Canadian goods as some of his candidates in the mid-term elections have sounded the alarm for how badly they have impacted their own communities. It's just one reflection of how reality is coming back to bite him where it hurts, and how he, and his team, are now panicking at the increasingly visible consequences on the horizon. And it stands as yet another major contrast between the erratic inhabitant of the White House and Canada's Mark Carney. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday October 23rd 2026: The question of who interfered with Ukraine's Starlink connection has continued - and it looks like it could have been the biggest mistake of Elon Musk's entire career; Protests erupt in Venezuela demanding a return to democracy, in the same week as the details of Trump's Venezuelan oil deal have leaked out. And it's not happy reading if you're Venezuelan. Or just, not corrupt; Also, I respond to a viewer's question on the worst case scenario Trump could follow in the mid-term elections.

Two things are going to explode after the mid-term elections have finally taken place - assuming that the results are anything like what the polls are predicting. One - President Donald Trump will launch a wide array of attempts to block, deny, obfuscate and overturn the result. And two - Trump administration members will escalate a period of savage infighting that, to all reports, has already started. What will emerge as the outcome of all that is as uncertain as it was when the Trump rioters were starting their attempt to break into the Capitol Building. Let's discuss.