If you have been watching the Greater Toronto Area real estate market over the past four years, you already know something significant has shifted. But the full picture — and what it means for your next move — is more nuanced than most headlines let on. As someone who works in this market every single day, I want to give you a frank, data-driven look at where we are, where we may be headed, and most importantly, what it means for you whether you are buying, selling, or simply deciding what to do next.
The Numbers: A 24% Drop from the 2022 Peak
According to TRREB data, the average GTA home price has fallen from $1,334,544 in February 2022 to $1,008,968 in February 2026 — a decline of 24.4% over four years. That is not a minor market fluctuation. That is the largest housing correction the GTA has seen since the early 1990s.
But here is the part that should give pause to anyone hoping for a quick rebound: the last comparable correction — which began after the 1989 peak — only saw prices drop 21.3% in the first four years. Prices continued falling until 1995, ultimately bottoming out at 28.5% below peak. And they did not recover to their 1989 inflation-adjusted levels until 2011 — a full 22 years later.
Daniel Foch, Chief Real Estate Officer at Valery.ca and host of The Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast, puts it plainly: “I would say we’re halfway through. I would expect prices to stop declining in 2027, and then they may be flat for a long time.”
That is the kind of honest market perspective that every buyer, seller, and investor deserves to hear — even when it is not what people want to listen to.
Why Confidence Is the Missing Ingredient
One of the most important — and often overlooked — factors in a housing market recovery is not interest rates or government policy. It is consumer confidence. As long as buyers believe prices will continue to decline, many will wait on the sidelines. That waiting, paradoxically, keeps the correction going longer.
Foch explains it well: “If we go back and look at the ‘90s, the bottom was a really long flat period, because it takes a long time for confidence to resume once people stop seeing prices falling.” A single rate cut or a resolved trade deal will not flip that switch overnight. Recovery takes a sustained period of market stability — and that stability may still be a few years away.
Advice for Sellers: Reset Your Expectations
The single most important thing I tell sellers right now is this: forget what your home was worth in 2021 or 2022. That was a different world, driven by pandemic-era demand, near-zero interest rates, and speculative investor activity. The only number that matters today is what comparable homes in your neighbourhood have actually sold for in the last 90 days.
Jim Emilson of Better Properties Real Estate Group puts it clearly: “In this market, you had better be one of the best-looking properties in your neighborhood. Buyers are able to be very picky, because there’s lots of inventory to choose from, so the property has to be immaculate, the property must be staged; you just have to invest in those things if you want to sell well today.”
What sellers must do to compete today:
• Price based on the last 90 days of comparable sales — not 2022 values.
• Invest in professional staging — buyers have choices and will pass on tired-looking homes.
• Ensure the property is immaculate: fresh paint, clean landscaping, updated fixtures.
• Be realistic and flexible with conditions and timelines.
• Work with a Realtor who understands current market dynamics and will give you honest guidance.
The one exception: if you are upsizing from a single-family detached home or townhouse to a larger property, this market may actually work in your favour. The higher-priced segment has seen deeper price compression, meaning what you gain relative to your purchase may offset what you lose on your sale. That said, condo owners looking to upsize are in a tougher position — more on that below.
Bottom line: if you do not have to sell right now, it may be worth waiting. But if you do need to move, the right preparation and pricing strategy can still get your home sold.
The Great Toronto Condo Correction
Toronto’s condo market deserves its own conversation, because it has been hit harder than any other segment. Average condo prices have fallen from roughly $800,000 in early 2022 to just over $625,000 in February 2026. Sales volumes have collapsed from 2,772 GTA condo transactions in February 2022 to just 1,088 last month.
Much of the condo boom was investor-driven. Investors entered the market expecting prices to keep rising, which allowed first-time buyers to use condos as starter homes before parlaying their equity into something larger. Without that speculative confidence — and with carrying costs remaining high — many of those investors have exited the market entirely.
Emilson is candid about what that means: “When you get burned by an asset class — whether it’s real estate or equities — you never go back to it. It’s just human nature. I don’t see a lot of them going back into the market, so that’s a big group of buyers that I think is wiped out for many, many years.” If you own a condo today and are thinking about selling or upsizing, it is worth having a detailed, honest conversation about timing, market value, and strategy before making a move.
Advice for Buyers: Opportunity Exists — With Eyes Wide Open
For buyers — particularly first-time buyers — this market offers something that did not exist even two years ago: real choice. With more inventory, less competition, and lower prices than the 2022 peak, there are genuine opportunities to enter the market at a far more reasonable price point.
Add in lower interest rates compared to the 2023 peak and federal incentives such as GST rebates on new construction, and the math is increasingly more favourable than it was at the height of the boom.
But buyers need to go in clear-eyed. Here is what I always tell clients:
• Plan for a 10-year horizon. Prices may continue to be choppy for several years. Do not buy expecting year-over-year appreciation in the near term.
• Buy what you can afford to hold. If life circumstances force you to sell in 2 or 3 years, you may sell at a loss.
• Look at the carrying cost vs. rental cost equation carefully. In some cases, renting and investing the difference elsewhere may still make financial sense.
• Do your homework on the specific neighbourhood and property type. Not all segments are declining equally.
• Use professional representation. In a buyer’s market, a skilled Realtor can negotiate better terms, conditions, and price — the cost of going unrepresented can be significant.
As Emilson put it: “There’s opportunities out there right now that didn’t exist even a year or two ago. If a first-time homebuyer can acknowledge that prices may be choppy for several years, it’s a much better market for them to enter.”
Advice for Investors: Patience and Precision
If you are an investor, now is not the time for blind optimism — nor is it the time for panic. It is the time for precision. Blanket appreciation across all property types and all markets is no longer a reliable strategy. What works now requires a deeper look at rental yields, carrying costs, local vacancy rates, and exit horizon.
The GTA is a large, diverse market. Some pockets and property types will outperform. Some will continue to struggle. The investors who will come out ahead in this environment are those who do their homework, buy with a long time horizon, and avoid overleveraging. If you are not sure whether a specific property makes financial sense right now, reach out — I am happy to run the numbers with you.
My Take: What This Market Demands from Everyone
The GTA market has shifted from a sellers’ market to a buyers’ market in a way we have not seen in decades. From a sales velocity standpoint, Foch notes this is the worst market on his data set — slower even than last year, which was already the worst since the 1990s.
In a market like this, what matters more than ever is working with a real estate professional who will tell you the truth, not just what you want to hear. Someone who understands the data, has experience across different market conditions, and will guide you to the right decision for your specific situation.
That is exactly what I am here to do.
Ready to Make a Smart Move in Today’s Market?
Whether you are buying, selling, or simply want an honest assessment of your options, I am here to help. Let’s sit down, look at the data, and build a strategy that makes sense for where the market is today — not where it was four years ago.
Mandeep Toor | Real Estate Broker
OMAXE Real Estate Team @ RE/MAX Excellence Real Estate
📞 Direct: 416-731-7774 | Office: 905-507-4436 | Team: 905-846-6666
✉ [email protected]
🌐 www.MandeepToor.ca
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