Manifold

Steve and Alf discuss geopolitical events of 2025 and what they expect in 2026.

Links:

Manifold episode with Han Feizi, Letter From Beijing

https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/letter-from-beijing-with-han-feizi-72

Previous crossover episodes:

Weeks Where Decades Happen

https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/seeking-truth-from-facts-weeks-where-decades-happen

AI, China, Tariffs, Geopolitics

https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/seeking-truth-from-facts-ai-china-tariffs-geopolitics-84

• (00:00) - Geopolitics 2026, crossover with Seeking Truth From Facts podcast – #103

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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

This is a two-part episode. The first ~30m covers the most important 2025 breakthroughs in polygenic embryo screening, while the second 30m focuses specifically on AI capabilities at the frontier of human knowledge. Both segments make predictions for 2026 and beyond.

Links:

Chinese billionaires, Philo-semitism, and the Chosen embryos:

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2000206116823675078

My talk from Reproductive Frontiers 2025 in Berkeley:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n64rrRPtCa8

Previous episodes on frontier AI capabilities in math and theoretical physics

https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/theoretical-physics-with-generative-ai-101

https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/ais-win-math-olympiad-gold-prof-lin-yang-ucla-97

Chapter Markers:

• (00:00) - Introduction

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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

All but the last 20 minutes of this episode should be comprehensible to non-physicists.

Steve explains where frontier AI models are in understanding frontier theoretical physics. The best analogy is to a “brilliant but unreliable genius colleague”!

He describes a specific example: the use of AI in recent research in quantum field theory (Tomonaga-Schwinger integrability conditions applied to state-dependent modifications of quantum mechanics), work now accepted for publication in Physics Letters B after peer review. Remarkably, the main idea in the paper originated de novo from GPT-5.

Links:

• X discussion - https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1996034522308026435
• Companion paper: Theoretical Physics With Generative AI -  https://drive.google.com/file/d/16sxJuwsHoi-fvTFbri9Bu8B9bqA6lr1H/view
• Physics paper - https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.15935 | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0370269325008111
• Related discussion of AI and theoretical physics with Prof. Nirmalya Kajuri (IIT) and Prof. Jonathan Oppenheim (UCL) - https://youtu.be/BRuDd3l0e3k
• Related video: AIs Win Math Olympiad Gold: Prof. Lin Yang (UCLA) – Manifold #97 - https://youtu.be/8JeRCqNg7Rc

Chapter markers:

• (00:00) - Intro: AI discussion with specialized physics at the end

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Murtaza Hussain is a reporter for Drop Site News, which has broken

important stories based on recently obtained Epstein emails. Hussain

reports that Epstein had an “extensive relationship with Israeli

intelligence, U.S. intelligence and the intelligence agencies of other

countries, as well... He was a dealmaker and a fixer at a very, very

elite level.”

Links:

Drop Site News series on Epstein and Israel

https://www.dropsitenews.com/s/epstein-and-israel

Former Israeli spy Ari Ben Menashe on Jeffrey Epstein

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1994046737040712144

• (01:08) - Introduction

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Jian Lian is an expert on China's political economy, industrial development, and technological development. He graduated from Peking University with a bachelor's and master's degree in economics. Starting out as an industry analyst at a Chinese investment bank, he participated in the "Made in China 2025" initiative as a Chinese venture capitalist, working for a state-owned fund. He is the author of "The Truth About Capital" 资本的真相 (2016), which contains major predictions about technology, economy, and society in China, most of which have since come true.

Jian and Steve discuss the origins of the industrial party movement (discussed in an earlier episode with Kyle Chan), which culminated in the "industrial maximalism" view of development adopted by the PRC government. They also discuss the development of supply chains in China, and the role that US sanctions had in accelerating the Chinese semiconductor industry.

Kyle Chan episode:

https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/kyle-chan-on-the-future-of-us-china-competition-94

Chinese industrial maximalism: 

https://www.high-capacity.com/p/chinese-industrial-maximalism

• (00:00) - Introduction

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Scott Horton is the author of Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine. Horton is a libertarian and anti-war activist. He and Steve discuss the Russia Hoax and its connection to American foreign policy, in light of new evidence that has emerged since the first Trump term.

Scott’s book: https://www.amazon.com/Provoked-Washington-Started-Catastrophe-Ukraine/dp/1733647376
X handle: @scotthortonshow

• (00:00) - Scott Horton on the Russia Hoax and Ukraine War – #98

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Lin Yang is a professor of computer science at UCLA. Recently, he and his collaborator built an AI pipeline using commercial models such as Gemini, ChatGPT, and Grok that performed at the gold medal level on International Mathematics Olympiad problems. Steve and Lin discuss this research, which relies on "verifier-refiner" LLM instances and large token budgets to reliably solve difficult problems. They discuss how these methods can be used to advance AI for scientific research, legal analysis, and complex document processing.

https://github.com/lyang36/IMO25/blob/main/IMO25.pdf

https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1948189075707469942

Chapter markers:

• (00:00) - AIs Win Math Olympiad Gold: Prof. Lin Yang (UCLA) – #97

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Zixuan Li is Director of Product and genAI Strategy at Z.ai. He was educated at Renmin and Tsinghua University in China, and at MIT and Carnegie Mellon. Z.ai has released frontier open source LLMs but is largely unknown in the West except among AI experts. Steve and Zixuan discuss the AI race from the perspective of a startup in Beijing.

https://chat.z.ai/
Follow Z.AI on X: @Zai_org

Chapter markers:

• (00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

This episode is a co-release with the Seeking Truth From Facts podcast: https://substack.com/@seekingtruthfromfacts

The theme of this episode derives from Lenin:

“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen.” ― Vladimir Ilyich Lenin

Steve and Alf discuss:

• (00:00) - Introduction

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Kyle Chan is a Postdoctoral Research Associate and Lecturer in Sociology at Princeton University. His research focuses on industrial policy, clean technology, and infrastructure with a regional focus on China and India. He is currently working on a book on Chinese industrial policy that aims to explain how China came to dominate certain industries today that had originally been led by the US, Japan, and other industrialized nations. These industries include electric vehicles, solar, high-speed rail, and consumer electronics. The book will describe the wide range of industrial policy tools used in China and their ongoing efforts in other industries, such as semiconductors and biotechnology.

Kyle Chan writes a popular newsletter called High Capacity on industrial policy, clean technology, and infrastructure, particularly in China and India.

Personal website: https://www.kyleichan.com/

NYT op-ed: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/19/opinion/china-us-trade-tariffs.html

Lu Feng interview: https://www.high-capacity.com/p/chinese-industrial-maximalism

Chapter Markers:

• (00:00) - Introduction

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.