Marc Hoag AI Law Pod (formerly Autonomous Cars with Marc Hoag)

Watch this review on my YouTube channel: YouTube.com/AutonomousCarsWithMarcHoag

Read this review on my Medium channel 

So I know this review has been a long time coming; those of you who listen to my podcast will remember that my wife and I took delivery of our white-on-white Tesla Model Y Long Range All Wheel Drive in June of this year; based on a delivery tracking site, I think it’s safe to say we were one of the first in California to take possession of that particular configuration. And now, after already hitting just over 16,000 km (10,000 mi) as of this writing, I feel confident that I can finally give a properly objective review of this undeniably astonishing, if flawed, machine.

By now, however, you’ve all read and watched enough superlative-laden reviews about all Teslas’ face-distorting teleportation-like acceleration — suffice to say the Model Y is for all intents and purposes nearly as quick as the Model 3, if admittedly a bit less agile, as expected — so this review will focus instead on four main areas: design; flaws; my thoughts on the latest build of Autopilot, because of course; and charging.

So let’s dive in, Episode 177, the Season 5 finale and Holiday Special for 2020, begins now….

I was introduced to Richard Goebelt through my H+C partner Martin Adler. The Director for Automotive & Mobility of the TÜV — the Technischer Überwachungsverein — Richard’s primary field of work, not to mention his passion and interests, rests entirely on the safety and regulatory landscape of all things automotive and mobility generally, with, of course, a focus on autonomous vehicles.

Unsurprisingly, then, our conversation spanned the gamut from his thoughts about Tesla; a brief history of TÜV and Germany’s impressive grasp on automotive safety; the social impacts of autonomous vehicles especially on matters of equality, or lack thereof; and much more besides.

This episode should be especially interesting to listeners in the US since we don’t really have anything like the TÜV. I suppose a loose analogy might be local agencies that require smog checks every few years. At a minimum, the TÜV requires certification of compliance to validate roadworthiness of all vehicles, including everything from turn signals to suspension; engines and emissions; headlight alignment; and anything else besides, and certain of these certifications are required every two years.

Our guest today is Ramon Marrades, the Director for Placemaking Europe, and he's joining return guest (#170) John Rossant, the Chairman of NewCities.org; CEO of CoMotion; and advisory board member of Neom.

As an urban economist, a writer, and activist, Ramon has a real passion for people and places, and crucially, how people interact with places. Prior to Placemaking Europe, Ramon was the Chief Strategy and Finance Officer at La Marina de València, a waterfront development agency for the Spanish city, and a board member of the Worldwide Network of Part Cities (AIVP). Ramon is the co-editor of the book "Our City? Countering Exclusion in Public Space (2019) and the host and curator of Placemaking Week Europe 2019. Today, his work focuses primarily on the interface between public space and economic development.

Today's conversation was a fascinating and totally open-ended dialogue between John and Ramon. As experts in their related and overlapping fields of urban design and development, it was an eye-opening look at the interplay between future mobility initiatives around the world and city design, ranging from practical to social issues and everything in between.

"What Phillip Wilcox has accomplished with The Future is Autonomous is nothing short of remarkable. The scope and depth of this book is simply staggering, while remaining an incredibly fast and easy, conversational read. From technology to society; from a micro view of individual companies to a macro, holistic look at the global AV industry; from legal issues to policy matters and everything in between, Wilcox somehow manages to cover the entire spectrum of the burgeoning autonomous vehicle industry and provides a distilled, unbiased crash course on a crash-free autonomous future."

That was my preliminary review of Phillip’s book, available now for Amazon Kindle and paperback. Having now finished the book — in one 3.5 hour sitting, mind you — I summarized it thus:

“Wilcox’s book is an astonishing crash course (pun not intended) on AV tech and law; a deep dive into US and China AV companies; the trade and security issues between the two countries that could determine the future of AV deployment; and so much more.”

First, if it isn’t yet abundantly clear from my praise above, this book is simply astonishing; a wonderfully cohesive package that will bring anybody up to speed on the present state of the autonomous vehicle industry.

On a personal note is the astonishing backstory that inspired Wilcox down this journey of research and writing, something that Wilcox shares as best he can remember. Suffice to say, it involved tremendous, life-threatening injuries; it’s incredible he lived to write this book in the first place.

What makes the book especially rich in its discussion of the autonomous vehicle landscape generally is Wilcox’s deep dive into the very essence, the very fabric of Chinese culture in order to understand and explain the different approach to this autonomous future.

But Wilcox doesn’t come at this from a distant vantage point; on the contrary, he’s lived and travelled throughout China, and even speaks and still studies Mandarin. So a mere superficial analysis from some distant point of view this is not; rather, it’s an incredibly nuanced, yet easily approachable discussion on the intricacies of culture and business in China, complete with analogies to other industries like the search engine space.

I cannot recommend this book highly enough, so go grab your copy now, and enjoy the next hour with Phillip Wilcox, author, “The Future is Autonomous.”

My guest today is Noam Arkind, the CTO at Israel-based Arbe Robotics (@Arbe_Robotics). Noam holds a PhD in Applied Math from the Robotics Lab at the Weizmann Institute of Science, so it’s no surprise that we did a fantastic one hour deep dive into all the fascinating technology behind their 4D high-resolution imaging radar solution.

What struck me most about Arbe — and it took me until maybe half-way into our discussion to realize it — isn’t just their full development kit that includes both the hardware and software; it wasn’t just the cost competitiveness over alternative solutions like lidar for instance; but rather, it was the recognition that Arbe is quite literally shaping up to be a better lidar than lidar, from virtually every metric.

Where computer vision cameras are limited by today’s AI and ML capabilities; where traditional radar is limited, at a minimum, by resolution; where lidar is limited by cost, inclement weather, and potentially resolution too, Arbe solves all those issues by effectively producing a 2K radar solution they claim is “100 times more detailed than any other radar on the market, suited for every level of autonomy or class.”

And that last point is what’s most exciting, I think, about Arbe: their solution isn’t designed for future L4 and L5 vehicles some five to 15 years hence; on the contrary, if only because the physical hardware is the same form factor as existing ADAS-equipped vehicles’ radar kit, Arbe can easily be used to augment or fully replace existing automakers’ ADAS solutions and get safer vehicles on the roads today.

Arbe has raised $55M to date, and is based in Tel Aviv with offices in Plano, Texas and Beijing.

1. Uber selling ATG

News is circulating that Uber is prepping a sale of its self-driving car division Uber ATG -- Advanced Technologies Group -- to Aurora. Once worth over $7B, this sale would come almost three years after Uber's autonomous driving ambitions were stalled following the tragic accident in which an Uber test vehicle struck and killed a pedestrian in Arizona. But is this really game over for Uber's self-driving car plans? I think not.

2. Motional in Vegas

Two episodes back we talked about Motional -- the joint venture between Hyundai and Aptiv which recently partnered up with shuttle service Via -- and now there's news that Motional will itself begin driverless car testing in Las Vegas. This news comes right on the heels of Cruise's recent announcement that it too had been granted a driverless testing permit in San Francisco.

3. Honda reaches L3

Despite Audi's claim not long ago that it had achieved a Level 3 vehicle with its Audi A8, Honda says its 2021 Legend will be the first widely available consumer vehicle with Level 3 technology enabling so-called "traffic jam assist" functionality. Like the Audi, this means that in traffic jams, meaning slow traffic speeds, presumably with cars in front and behind, and with clear lane indications, the driver will be able to take its eyes off the road unless and until the car alerts the driver the intervene. This is different from a Tesla and its impressive Autopilot system which requires human attention at all times, thereby qualifying it as a Level 2 system.

Today’s guest is John Rossant, the Chairman of NewCities.org and CEO of CoMotion. John also sits on the advisory board of Saudi Arabia’s impressive Neom City, a 150 sq-mi (388 sq-km) planned smart city powered fully by renewable energy, and eschewing conventional transportation methods for autonomous vehicles, both land-based and air-based.

During our 40-minute conversation, John shares his fascinating insight on Neom, while touching on his global experiences derived from his time at NewCities and CoMotion.

Today: Hyundai and Aptive do a thing; I make a mistake; and ghosts learn to drive cars. All this, right now…

1. Hyundai and Aptive

About a year ago, we discussed the new partnership as between Hyundai and Aptiv which saw the two companies forming some sort of unknown venture. This venture was apparently a company called Motional, and Motional has just partnered up with Via, a shuttle-van ride service that partners up with municipalities. The idea is for Motional to give Via driverless capabilities.

2. I make a mistake (about Daimler)

Special thanks to Oscar Slotosch (Episode #142) for pointing out that I missed the recent announcement about Daimler’s partnership with Waymo to provide L4 trucking. Thing is though, it still seems that Daimler is focusing only on commercial trucking for now, so I try to go deeper than the last episode in an attempt to figure out (or at least guess) what’s going on.

3. Ghost

Comma.ai has a friendly competitor driven by ghosts. Ghost is a plug-and-play hardware/software solution that, for $3500 and $100/month will AV-ify most 2012 cars with Level 3 capabilities.

Today: Mercedes-Benz announces they're giving up on AVs; we talk AV design and what it really means; and, we unpack the true meaning of AV timelines. All this, right now....

1. Mercedes-Benz gives up on AVs

In a bizarre bit of PR non-hype, Mercedes-Benz announced to the world that they are giving up on AVs; this includes their (long since forgotten) partnership with BMW in which the Bavarian heavyweights were meant to co-produce AV software together, never mind the fact that neither company possesses such expertise. What's curious about this announcement is that it raises the question of what happens to Mercedes' ongoing development and improvement of their existing ADAS systems. Also, I make a fairly bold prediction, namely, that Mercedes will acquire an AV company in the next one to three years.

2. AV design

The question of AV design often misses the bigger picture question: it's not so much a matter of how will today's passenger vehicles look, but rather, how will existing automobile companies' product lines change, and by change, I mean, how will they grow. Companies will soon branch out into both human-driven and autonomous vehicles in the same way they currently have, say, passenger vehicles and camper vans. 

3. AV timelines

In a recent AV roundtable-type discussion in which I participated, 2038 was pegged as "the year" that Level 5 AVs become a thing. And while I agree with that prediction -- I've often said that L5 vehicles should start to become a part of our lives in the mid- to late-30s -- I think this binary view of AV timelines sort of misses the point, i.e., it misses the crucially important interim years for businesses to ramp up in preparation for an AV future, not least of all, insurance companies.