🧭 MSTR True North episode 54:

A deep dive into Bitcoin’s drawdown, macro liquidity, and why this cycle differs. We break down capital structure, leverage myths, margin-call fears, treasury concentration, short-risk asymmetry, and how convex balance sheets create explosive upside.

🎛️ As of this recording, 2/4/26, Strategy's (MSTR) performance: Open: $120.25 Close: $129.09 Volume: 23.8M Shares mNAV: ~1.03 Market Cap: ~$38.9B U.S. Market Cap Ranking: BTC: 713,502

⏱️ TIMESTAMPS & INSIGHTS:

00:00:00 - Intro agenda framing: NFA context and True North overview

00:03:38 - Bitcoin market drawdown: 42 percent decline framing

00:09:23 - Proof of reserves debate: Custody transparency and risk

00:12:39 - Macro framework setup: Rates liquidity and context

00:15:10 - Macro regime comparison: Liquidity rising versus 2022 contraction

00:18:02 - MSTR market dynamics: Equity pressure and hedging behavior

00:20:00 - Institutional market lens: Event context and capital markets views

00:26:25 - Margin call misconceptions: Liquidity versus leverage reality

00:28:41 - Capital structure deep dive: Balance sheet leverage and FUD breakdown

0:35:35 - Accretion and convexity mechanics: Bitcoin per share and upside asymmetry

00:41:12 - Capital model transition: Converts replaced by preferred equity

00:43:12 - Regulatory and stablecoin shifts: TradFi integration

00:46:04 - Bitcoin treasury model: Balance sheet-first companies

00:51:07 - Treasury concentration risk: Dominant holder analysis

00:55:04 - Bitcoin scarcity math: Rule of 72 framework

00:57:25 - Coverage framework reset: Net capital versus leverage fear

01:05:29 - Capital stack hierarchy: Senior debt preferred and equity

01:10:08 - Converts versus common equity: Dilution and coverage math

01:13:33 - Upcoming earnings call: What to watch and why it matters

01:20:49 - Balance sheet resilience: Liquidity runway and no margin calls

01:27:45 - Treasury concentration and survivability: Why failures don’t matter

01:32:38 - Treasury concentration math: Scale dominance and systemic impact

01:35:41 - Bitcoin technical distributions: Wallet structure and custody flows

01:41:14 - Short risk asymmetry: Explosive upside and forced covering

01:42:50 - Balance sheet endgame: Bitcoin as reserve asset

01:45:08 - Final thoughts from the team

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Disclaimer: The content in this video is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. We are not financial advisors, and you should consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. All investments involve risks, and you are responsible for your own decisions.